SC-PPP: Bush, Walker and Hillary ahead

[Tender Branson]

(Republicans) Given the choices of Jeb Bush,
Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Lindsey
Graham, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Rick
Perry, and Scott Walker, who would you most
like to see as the GOP candidate for President
in 2016?

Jeb Bush......................................................... 19%
Scott Walker ................................................... 18%
Ben Carson..................................................... 13%
Lindsey Graham ............................................. 13%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 12%
Chris Christie .................................................. 7%
Rand Paul ....................................................... 5%
Ted Cruz ......................................................... 3%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 3%
Someone else/Not sure .................................. 6%

(Democrats) Given the choices of Joe Biden,
Hillary Clinton, Martin O’Malley, Bernie
Sanders, Jim Webb, and Elizabeth Warren,
who would you most like to see as the
Democratic candidate for President in 2016?

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 59%
Joe Biden........................................................ 18%
Elizabeth Warren ............................................ 10%
Martin O'Malley............................................... 3%
Bernie Sanders ............................................... 1%
Jim Webb........................................................ 1%
Someone else/Undecided............................... 8%

...

PPP surveyed 868 registered South Carolina voters, including 525 Republican primary voters and 252 Democratic primary voters, from February 12th to 15th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 3.3%, it’s +/- 4.3% for the GOP sample, and it’s +/-6.2% for the Democratic sample. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_SC_21815.pdf

[King]

Why is Walker polling so high despite not having much name recognition?

It's a good sign for him. Everyone who knows him is voting for him.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

#HillaryBelow60
#Inevitabilityfading

[IceSpear]

The fact that Lindsey legitimately has a chance in SC is amazing.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Why is Walker polling so high despite not having much name recognition?

It's a good sign for him. Everyone who knows him is voting for him.

I think so, too. Walker will be a better campaigner than Romney, if you ask me.

That's what I call damning with faint praise.

[RFayette]

Why is Walker polling so high despite not having much name recognition?

It's a good sign for him. Everyone who knows him is voting for him.

Yup.  Walker has broad appeal among the fiscally conservative wing of the party, whether it be socons or standard tea partiers/Club for Growthers.  I also suspect he also does pretty well among libertarians, which partially explains Rand's sliding poll numbers.

[Mr. Morden]

Other poll questions for the GOP primary voters in South Carolina:

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party:
yes 24%
no 60%

Do you believe in global warming?
yes 31%
no 58%

Do you believe in evolution?
yes 34%
no 54%

Would you support establishing Christianity as the national religion?
yes 62%
no 28%

Should vaccinations for children be mandatory?
yes 67%
no 29%

fav/unfav %:
Huckabee 65/14% for +51%
Carson 45/11% for +34%
Walker 41/10% for +31%
Bush 52/27% for +25%
Perry 43/22% for +21%
Paul 42/26% for +16%
Cruz 39/23% for +16%
Christie 28/46% for -18%

Who leads among...?
Tea Party: Walker
not Tea Party: Bush
not sure if Tea Party: Bush
believe in global warming: Bush
don't believe in global warming: Walker
not sure about global warming: Bush
believe in evolution: Bush/Graham tie
don't believe in evolution: Walker
not sure about evolution: Bush
support establishing Christianity as national religion: Bush
oppose establishing Christianity as national religion: Carson
not sure about establishing Christianity as national religion: Walker
support making vaccinations mandatory: Bush
oppose making vaccinations mandatory: Walker
not sure about making vaccinations mandatory: Walker
moderates: Bush
somewhat conservative: Huckabee
very conservative: Walker
men: Walker
women: Bush
age 18-45: Carson
age 46-65: Bush
age 65+: Walker

I think the pattern I mentioned a few days ago holds true here: Bush is edging out Walker in Southern states, but it's because the "conservative" vote is being split among more candidates in the South, with candidates like Carson and Huckabee taking up a decent chunk of the conservative vote here.  Whereas Bush dominates the "moderate" vote.

But in Northern states, candidates like Huckabee aren't as strong, and so Walker cleans up with the conservative vote, and actually ends up doing better relative to Bush.  The vote splitting is pretty important, though presumably not all of these candidates will end up running, or simply won't be in the race by the time of the South Carolina primary.

[IceSpear]

Should vaccinations for children be mandatory?
yes 67%
no 29%

Well, thank god for small favors I guess.

oppose establishing Christianity as national religion: Carson

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Establishing Christianity as the national religion is very moderate. smh (not at you - rather the voters or more likely just funky crosstabs)

Bush's favorability with Huckabee voters is outstanding  (61/10), but their 2nd choice is often Perry, Graham, or Carson (and sometimes Walker). Very hard to judge how that will translate if several in that bunch drop out. As expected, his favorability numbers with those other groups is strong as well, particularly Perry voters.

He has horrible ratings with Christie voters, but he adds nearly half of them to his column if Christie drops out.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Clinton isn't gonna lose SC, Christian Blacks will ensure she is carried to victory.

[© tweed]

Other poll questions for the GOP primary voters in South Carolina:

those are always fun.  I believe a PPP poll before the 2012 GOP primary showed that a plurality of likely primary voters believed Obama was born outside of the USA.

[Mr. Morden]

Other poll questions for the GOP primary voters in South Carolina:

those are always fun.  I believe a PPP poll before the 2012 GOP primary showed that a plurality of likely primary voters believed Obama was born outside of the USA.

I was amused by PPP's finding in 2009 that a non-negligible fraction of birthers correctly believe that Obama was born in Hawaii, but don't think Hawaii is part of the United States (or aren't sure if it is or not):

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com.au/2009/08/deeper-look-at-birthers.html