Mideast Record Courier: Live Coverage of the 2/15 Elections (Projected Winner!)

[Adam Griffin]

The presidential race as of the most recent vote:

Bore (Lab): 39 (59.1%)
Maxwell (DR): 19 (28.7%)
JCL (Fed): 6 (9.0%)
Others: 2 (3.0%)
Turnout: 38%

Though Maxwell gains two votes as of the most recent count, Bore remains in the lead. Interesting to note is that, according to calculations by Mr. Adams Griffin, the Federalists currently make up a larger share of the electorate than they do of the population as a whole, while Labor and the DR turnout more or less matches registration. In terms of raw numbers, however, the Federalists are far behind in turnout. Roughly 3/4 of registered Federalists are yet to go to the polls, compared to 2/5 DRs and 3/5 Laborites. With the Labor campaign team having so far done an excellent job of getting their voters to turn out early, the fate of the race will depend on whether the right can catch up in the final two days of the campaign.

 If Federalists have lower turnout, how do they have a disproportionately large share of the electorate?  

The very first image I posted (which I deleted and reposted, but was quoted beforehand) had the two columns reversed. Here is the most up-to-date version. Keep in mind that I combined Maxwell's votes with JCL's that flow (out of habit; as it stands, that won't happen because bore is elected in first round):

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

The Mideast Record-Courier has the following projection to make:

Windjammer has been reelected Mideast Senator

At this point, the way the electorate is shifting makes it highly improbable, if not impossible, that Senator Windjammer will be defeated in this election. As the race currently stands, the senator has managed to turn out his base in large numbers while making significant inroads among center and center-right leaning voters. Having reviewed the partisan breakdown of the electorate and consulted our fellow media sources, we have come to the conclusion that he has established a sufficient bulwark to withstand any gains made by his opponent over the next two days. As such, we are projecting that Senator Windjammer will continue to serve as the Mideast Regional Senator in the 66th and 67th Senates.

Current Vote Totals
Windjammer (Lab): 16 (66.7%)
Spiral (DR): 7 (29.2%)
Other: 1 (4.2%)

Current Composition of the Senate

[LAB] [LAB] [LAB] [? ? ?] [? ? ?] [? ? ?] [TPP] [TPP] [TPP] [FED]

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

The presidential race is beginning to narrow, though Senator Bore retains a clear lead over Maxwell, his nearest opponent. As of the most recent vote, the votes are apportioned as follows:

Bore (Lab): 42 (53.2%)
Maxwell (DR): 25 (31.6%)
JCL (Fed): 9 (11.4%)
Others: 3 (3.8%)
Turnout: 45%

Though still behind in the raw totals, Maxwell and JCL are both benefitting from increased right-wing turnout, and it appears increasingly likely that the election will be forced into a second round. In such a scenario, Maxwell would likely have a much better chance of pulling off a victory, as he is likely to get the majority of JCL's transfers in the event that the Federalist ticket is eliminated.

In the Midwest Gubernatorial race, Governor Gass3268 has managed to hold on to his earlier lead, though the race has slightly narrowed.

Gass3268 (Lab): 12 (57.1%)
Foucaulf (Fed): 9 (42.9%)
Turnout: 66%

Based on these results, the Mideast Record-Courier has the following projection to make:

Gass3268 has been reelected Midwest Governor

With turnout having reached the 2/3 mark, we do not believe that it is possible for Mr. Foucaulf to pull victory out of the hat at this point, given Labor's obvious advantage in registration and turnout in this region. As such, we are projecting that Governor Gass3268 will win a full term as governor when all of the votes are counted.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

We now bring you what can only be termed as an astonishing update in the Midwest Senate race.

Dereich (Fed): 5 (50.0%)
TNF (Lab): 4 (40.0%)
Others: 1 (10.0%)
Turnout: 31%

It appears that what was considered to be the safest Labor seat up for election this year is now in play, with incumbent Senator and Labor firebrand TNF trailing Federalist challenger Dereich, albeit by a single vote. While it would be imprudent to assign too much weight to this, with less than a third of the vote currently in, this certainly is an interesting development.

[SWE]

The Midwest has always been the most vulnerable labor seat. It's amazing how hilariously wrong everyone but me has been this entire campaign.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Totals in the presidential race as of the most recent vote:

Bore (Lab): 42 (51.9%)
Maxwell (DR): 27 (33.3%)
JCL (Fed): 9 (11.1%)
Others: 3 (3.7%)
Turnout: 47%

Though Senator Bore is still in the lead in terms of raw votes, Speaker Maxwell's recent gains make it more likely that no candidate will have a majority in the first round, when JCL's votes would likely transfer to the DR ticket. While Bore's total currently exceeds 50%, if he does not win at least one of the next four votes his tenuous majority will be erased.
This would not, however, necessarily signal a Maxwell victory. Because some of JCL's voters did not rank more than one preference, it is still possible - though more complicated - for Bore to win in the second round. In addition, he can expect to receive at least one of the three votes currently held by write-in candidates, which would further strengthen his lead.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

The Midwest has always been the most vulnerable labor seat. It's amazing how hilariously wrong everyone but me has been this entire campaign.

It seems many people (myself included) placed too much faith in registration numbers. Even without that, though, I doubt many would have predicted Windjammer's reelection so early in the balloting, given all the forces arrayed against him.

I think everyone's biggest mistake in the Mideast race was confusing the national mood with public opinion in the Mideast. Case in point is the behavior of TPP. The National People's Convention endorsed Spiral in the aftermath of the Bacon King incident; however, Mideastern TPPers went for Windjammer by a 60-point margin. Only one TPPer in the Mideast (Benconstine) voted for Spiral, and The People's vote was crucial in that race.

As for the Midwest... well, the night is still young. Dereich's lead is still small enough at this point that it won't be surprising if TNF retakes the momentum. Still, it is surprising that so many people (again, myself included) were so wrong about this race. Honestly, I expected to have called the Midwest by now. It's very odd that both of the two longest-serving senators (TNF and Yankee) are behind in the count right now.

Ultimately, it all comes down to turnout. Labor hasn't done a particularly good job of turning out voters for the Midwest race, and the Labor Party rises and falls on the strength of its ability to get its voters to the polls. Given the aggressive campaign TNF has run, I'm frankly surprised by this; but, again, the night is still young.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The Midwest has always been the most vulnerable labor seat. It's amazing how hilariously wrong everyone but me has been this entire campaign.

Well, no, I always said an upset was certainly possible in the Midwest Senate race!

[ZuWo]

TNF will win by about two or three votes.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

After loosing ground to his conservative opponents late last night, Senator Bore is now firmly in the lead once more. Here is how the race stands as of the most recent vote:

Bore (Lab): 47 (54.0%)
Maxwell (DR): 27 (31.0%)
JCL (Fed): 10 (11.5%)
Others: 3 (3.4%)
Turnout: 50%

As we cross the halfway mark in terms of turnout, Senator Bore has managed to strengthen his lead, with current counts placing him four votes above the majority. If these numbers hold, and there is not a significant increase in conservative turnout, we would be prepared to call the race for Senator Bore. At this moment, however, we will refrain from making any such calls, at least until it is clear that voting has more or less come to a halt.

After a scare last night, incumbent Senator TNF is back in the lead in the Midwest Senate race, leading challenger Dereich by a single vote.

TNF (Lab): 6 (50.0%)
Dereich (Fed): 5 (41.7%)
Other: 1 (8.3%)
Turnout: 38%

To the South, incumbent Senator Yankee continues to trail his independent challenger, Hagrid, though the gap between them has slightly narrowed.

Hagrid (Ind): 7 (53.8%)
North Carolina Yankee (Fed): 5 (38.5%)
Other: 1 (7.7%)
Turnout: 52%

With turnout in this race now over 50%, it appears increasingly unlikely that Yankee will be able to overcome this handicap. For the moment, however, we are reserving judgement until it can be verified whether their is a late conservative surge in the works.

Finally, in the Northeast, CJO Talleyrand currently leads by a commanding margin. Current tabulations are as  follows:

Talleyrand (Lab): 12 (60.0%)
Cynic (Ind): 6 (30.0%)
MattVT: 2 (10.0%)
Turnout: 53%

Based on these results, the Mideast Record-Courier has the following projection to make:

Talleyrand has been elected Northeast Senator

Current Composition of the Senate

[LAB] [LAB] [LAB] [LAB] [? ? ?] [? ? ?] [TPP] [TPP] [TPP] [FED]

Based on current turnout rates, evidence of Federalist and TPP crossover in support of Talleyrand, and the apportionment of MattVT's transfers, we can not predict that the CJO will be elected to the Senate, regardless of whether any candidate has a majority on the first ballot.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

With respect, I think you're being too optimistic about my odds.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

In the Northeast Gubernatorial race, Governor Sawx continues to lead his independent opponent, Poirot.

SawxDem (TPP): 10 (66.7%)
Poirot (Ind): 5 (33.3%)
Turnout: 39%

While it is not out of the question that Poirot could still stage an upset, with Sawx currently leading by 1 2-1 margin, TPP seems likely to retain it's third governorship.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

As of the most recent vote, the presidential race stands as follows:

Bore (Lab): 47 (53.4%)
Maxwell (DR): 28 (31.8%)
JCL (Fed): 10 (11.4%)
Others: 3 (3.4%)
Turnout: 51%

Though Speaker Maxwell has gained since the last count, Senator Bore remains in the lead, with a majority of the vote currently in his favor. In order to force the election into a second round, Maxwell and JCL would need to win all of the next six votes, and even that would not ensure a Maxwell victory, owing to the peculiar distribution of JCL's transfers.

Meanwhile, in the Northeast Gubernatorial race, Governor Sawx continues to lead by a convincing margin.

SawxDem (TPP): 10 (62.5%)
Poirot (Ind): 6 (37.5%)
Turnout: 42%

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Bore (Lab): 47 (53.4%)
Maxwell (DR): 28 (31.8%)
JCL (Fed): 10 (11.4%)
Others: 3 (3.4%)
Turnout: 51%

In terms of the geographic distribution of the vote, Senator Bore has a slight edge, currently leading Maxwell with 17 states to the latter's 12. On the map below, shades of red indicate Bore majorities, shades of blue Maxwell majorities, shades of yellow JCL majorities, and green a tie. We expect the tied votes in North Carolina, Indiana, and Michigan to be resolved before the end of the election.

. Manitoba . New Brunswick .Ontario . Quebec . Nunavut

[Enderman]

Liver Coverage of the Feb. '15 Elections

Deeply disturbing!

Up next: Intestinal Coverage!

We already have Enderman Internals.

You, sir, are amazing.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Senator Bore has increased his lead in the presidential race as of the last count. Current tabulations are as follows:

Bore (Lab): 49 (53.8%)
Maxwell (DR): 28 (30.1%)
JCL (Fed): 11 (12.1%)
Others: 3 (3.3%)
Turnout: 52%

Meanwhile in the Midwest, Senator TNF continues to hold onto the lead as of the last ballot:

TNF (Lab): 8 (57.1%)
Dereich (Fed): 5 (35.7%)
Other: 1 (7.1%)
Turnout: 44%

We should note that this total does not include the vote of Midwest resident Celtic Empire, who eroneously voter in the Mideast Senate election.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

The Mideast Record-Courier has the following projection to make:

SawxDem has been reelected Northeast Governor

At this point, the partisan breakup of the electorate shows enough support for Sawx amongst TPP, Labor, and independent voters to secure victory. With a late surge of conservative voters in great enough numbers to elect Mr. Poirot unlikely at this point, we are predicting that the governor will win a second term tonight, maintaining the TPP majority in governorships.

Current Totals
SawxDem (TPP): 10 (62.5%)
Poirot (Ind): 6 (37.5%)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Senator Bore has increased his lead in the presidential race as of the last count. Current tabulations are as follows:

Bore (Lab): 49 (53.8%)
Maxwell (DR): 28 (30.1%)
JCL (Fed): 11 (12.1%)
Others: 3 (3.3%)
Turnout: 52%

Meanwhile in the Midwest, Senator TNF continues to hold onto the lead as of the last ballot:

TNF (Lab): 8 (57.1%)
Dereich (Fed): 5 (35.7%)
Other: 1 (7.1%)
Turnout: 44%

We should note that this total does not include the vote of Midwest resident Celtic Empire, who eroneously voter in the Mideast Senate election.

Since Celtic Empire voted in the wrong regional Senate election, is he allowed to recast his vote for Senate or would doing so invalidate the ballot?  I doubt it, but was just curious.

[Fritz]

Since Celtic Empire voted in the wrong regional Senate election, is he allowed to recast his vote for Senate or would doing so invalidate the ballot?  I doubt it, but was just curious.

Under normal circumstances, it would, but given that there was some confusion caused by my error, I think he should be allowed to do so.  This is Homely's call, however.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

With the most recent count, Senator Bore now has an even fifty votes, with turnout hovering just above 50%.

Bore (Lab): 50 (54.3%)
Maxwell (DR): 28 (30.4%)
JCL (Fed): 11 (12.0%)
Others: 3 (3.3%)
Turnout: 53%

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

SoI Hagrid continues to lead in the Southern Senate race, though Senator Yankee has gained ground in recent hours.

Hagrid (Ind): 8 (53.3%)
North Carolina Yankee (Fed): 6 (40.0%)
Other: 1 (6.7%)
Turnout: 60%

As the only voter to utilize the write-in option listed Hagrid as his second preference, Senator Yankee needs to win three more votes to be reelected to the Senate. So long as he remembers to vote for himself before the end of the day tomorrow, he can count on at least one. The real challenge is not finding two more, but in getting his supporters to the polls. At 42%, Federalist turnout in the South is the lowest in the region: TPP, the second-largest party after the Federalists, currently has 80% turnout, while both Labor and the DRs have 100% turnout, albeit with much fewer members. Whether Southern Federalists can break this trend in the final day of the campaign will almost certainly decide this race.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Senator Bore's vote total continues to climb, with the addition of the most recent votes putting him over the edge in Maryland and strengthening his lead in New Jersey. Speaker Maxwell's gains in Florida and Louisiana, however, have offset this increase, and have actually served to slightly decrease Bore's percentage of the popular vote.

Bore (Lab): 52 (54.2%)
Maxwell (DR): 30 (31.3%)
JCL (Fed): 11 (11.5%)
Others: 3 (3.1%)
Turnout: 55%
. Manitoba . New Brunswick .Ontario . Quebec . Nunavut

[Adam Griffin]

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

As we approach the final 24 hours of the election, Senator Bore has a hearty lead over Speaker Maxwell, his closest opponent, who he currently leads by 24 votes.

Bore (Lab): 54 (55.1%)
Maxwell (DR): 30 (30.6%)
JCL (Fed): 11 (11.2%)
Others: 3 (3.1%)
Turnout: 56%

After much deliberation, we are now issuing the following projection:

Bore has been elected President of Atlasia
Bacon King has been elected Vice President of Atlasia

With each new vote, it becomes increasingly unlikely that either Speaker Maxwell or Assemblyman JCL will be able to topple Senator Bore. Such is Bore's advantage at this point either Maxwell or JCL would need to win the next eleven votes to even force the election into a second round; meanwhile, Senator Bore could prevent this by winning a single additional vote. If the only votes Bore receives after this point come from those who have endorsed him, either Maxwell or JCL would need to win 16 votes to force the election into a second round. For this to occur would require a massive wave of last-minute right-wing voters; but it seems likely that were such a wave coming, it would have materialized by now, and in any case the Federalist Party almost always underperforms in terms of turnout.
Furthermore, even if Maxwell and JCL manage to force the election into a second round, JCL's voters have not unanimously listed Maxwell as their second preference. To our knowledge, at least one has given Bore their transfer, and several have listed no second preference at all. Because of this, and based on the current partisan distribution of the vote, we are now projecting that Bore and Bacon King have been elected as the next President and Vice President of Atlasia.

In the Midwest Senate race, incumbent Senator TNF has lengthened his lead over Federalist challenger Dereich.

TNF (Lab): 9 (60.0%)
Dereich (Fed): 5 (33.3%)
Other: 1 (6.7%)
Turnout: 47%

While TNF's lead is currently quite commanding at this point, an expected influx of votes from Federalist candidates in the Midwest may yet sway the final margin. We are therefore declining to project a winner at this time.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Obviously, this is an editorial decision, but I'm urging media outlets to not make proclamations (however obvious the results might be) about who has won or is going to while there's still almost a day's worth of voting to go.