GOP caucus in Washington

[solarstorm]

Washington is one of those states that haven't been polled yet.
It's a pretty interesting state since it holds caucuses instead of primaries.
Furthermore, it is usually one of the earlier states.

[Suburbia]

Bush wins it barely, over Paul. Washington becomes a swing state again after Bush's primary victory, just like 2004.

[solarstorm]

Washington becomes a swing state again after Bush's primary victory, just like 2004.

You're kidding, right?

[Panda Express]

[Suburbia]

Washington becomes a swing state again after Bush's primary victory, just like 2004.

You're kidding, right?

Bush almost won Washington IN 2004. Go to p2004.org and see.

[Boston Bread]

7 points isn't that tight. In fact it was a larger margin than NJ that year. 2004 was a moderate win by Bush and the state has only trended D in 2008 and 2012.

[IceSpear]

bronz pls

[solarstorm]

[solarstorm]

Uh, he lost it by 7 points and did worse there than he did in 2000. What was close, however, was the gubernatorial election in Washington that year (one of the closest elections in U.S. history).

129 votes difference. That's what I call close...

[Panda Express]

[Suburbia]

Bush in 2004 should have won Washington, but oh well.
http://www.gwu.edu/~action/2004/states/bushwavisits04.html

[krazen1211]

Bush wins it barely, over Paul. Washington becomes a swing state again after Bush's primary victory, just like 2004.

That can only happen if the liberals escalate the war on whites.

[solarstorm]

[Alcon]

1. Washington was not especially close in 2004.  It was definitely not a swing state...it was almost 10 points to the left of national average, and has twice trended Democratic since.  Also, Washington is a highly polarized state, so closing small gaps is harder than in most other places.

2. Paul's people were well-organized in WA, even if the Republican Party insiders did their best to screw them over.  I have no idea if this will repeat, but it doesn't really relate to Washington's libertarian lean.  Washington may have a lot of social liberals who are fiscal conservatives in the suburbs, but those aren't exactly Paul's constituency.  Paul's strong performance in WA was about an organized operation, not the state's ideology.

3. The 2004 Gubernatorial election was a huge mess, and King County messed up, but it didn't find more votes per capita than some other (very Republican) counties.  Also, the votes that they found were publicly disclosed (the voter IDs, that is).  This was absolutely a screw-up, but using this to argue the election was "stolen" is weak.

[Mr. Morden]

Remember the 2008 fiasco?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=70234.0

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=70313.0

[Türkisblau]

Washington a swing state? War on whites? This is like the comment section on Breitbart.

[Xing]

Some people still think Washington is a swing state? That's more pathetic than people who insist that Texas is a swing state. Obama won Washington by 15 points in 2012, and Washington has been trending Democratic relative to the nation as a whole. Seriously, unless Republicans become socially moderate/liberal, they stand no chance of winning Washington (gubernatorial races tend to be closer, but if McKenna can't win, I'm not sure who can.) Anyway, Paul would stand a good chance of winning the Republican caucus.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Agreed, anyone that tries to make the argument that either Washington or Texas is a swing state is clueless.....

As for the caucus id probably go with Paul slightly over bush, right now.

[RI]

Paul will not win the Washington caucus. Whoever wins the King County suburbs will likely win the state, and Paul's not going to. Bush seems like a good candidate for the area, though Walker could maybe do all right if Bush isn't strong.

[morgieb]

Washington seems to be a state that will be favourable towards libertarianism (well the right-wing, anyway). Add the fact that it's a caucus state and you'd like Paul's chances here.

[Sumner 1868]

Washington seems to be a state that will be favourable towards libertarianism (well the right-wing, anyway). Add the fact that it's a caucus state and you'd like Paul's chances here.

Misconception. While the Eastern Republicans have loads of grudges against land regulations and taxes, they tend socially conservative. See the county vote for Referendum 74 in 2012.

[bobloblaw]

it is a caucus. Anything can happen