Will Hillary win a county in Oklahoma?
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  Will Hillary win a county in Oklahoma?
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Author Topic: Will Hillary win a county in Oklahoma?  (Read 2420 times)
Matty
boshembechle
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« on: February 19, 2015, 08:23:22 PM »

Pretty sure the state of the sooners has gone completely atlas blue (county-wise) for two straight elections. Will Hillary break the streak, allowing OKlahoma democrats to break into a happy-dance?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1 on: February 19, 2015, 08:31:35 PM »

It's actually three straight. Kerry didn't win a single county either.

Anyway, I doubt it. Though it's possible one or two Dixiecrat counties may surprise.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #2 on: February 19, 2015, 08:32:01 PM »

Pretty sure the state of the sooners has gone completely atlas blue (county-wise) for two straight elections. Will Hillary break the streak, allowing OKlahoma democrats to break into a happy-dance?

No, the Clinton-but-not-Obama voters are probably the most anti-Democratic in the country right now. None are coming back.
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Panda Express
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« Reply #3 on: February 19, 2015, 08:33:00 PM »

No, those Gore counties are gone for the Dems. Eventually, Oklahoma County could go Dem though. Oklahoma City is a booming city.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #4 on: February 19, 2015, 08:34:36 PM »

No, those Gore counties are gone for the Dems. Eventually, Oklahoma County could go Dem though. Oklahoma City is a booming city.

Yeah, but definitely not in 2016 and definitely not for Hillary.
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solarstorm
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« Reply #5 on: February 19, 2015, 08:58:56 PM »

I totally disagree. Hillary will win one or two counties in CD 02.
If a Democrat can win some counties in Oklahoma against an incumbent Republican, while other Republicans surprisingly won (Maryland) or almost won (Vermont) in deep-blue states, Hillary can draw level with Dorman.
Remember: Both in 2004 and 2008 the Democratic nominees lost in Oklahoma, and in 2012 it was one of Obama's worst states.


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solarstorm
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« Reply #6 on: February 19, 2015, 09:11:57 PM »

Yes, but state politics ≠ national politics.
Scott Milne (R) also managed to win many counties in Vermont, does that mean Hillary will lose them? No.

Eastern Oklahoma, particularly Kiamichi Country, is basically an enhancement of Arkansas. Hence, she will appeal to enough Oklahomans to win some counties.
A better comparison to Vermont would be Utah, where she's likely to fail to win any county.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: February 19, 2015, 10:20:01 PM »

Yes, but state politics ≠ national politics.
Scott Milne (R) also managed to win many counties in Vermont, does that mean Hillary will lose them? No.

Eastern Oklahoma, particularly Kiamichi Country, is basically an enhancement of Arkansas. Hence, she will appeal to enough Oklahomans to win some counties.
A better comparison to Vermont would be Utah, where she's likely to fail to win any county.

Hillary will likely win Summit County. Obama won it 56-41 in 2008. Romney's Mormon bump gave him a 50-46 win there. Even Scott Howell carried it in 2012 against Hatch.

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=49&year=2012&f=0&off=3&elect=0&class=1
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #8 on: February 20, 2015, 02:13:34 AM »

Another question: Will she lose a county in the Oklahoma primary?
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Xing
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« Reply #9 on: February 20, 2015, 02:28:51 AM »

If she gets a 2008 Obamaesque victory, maybe. Otherwise, no.
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Türkisblau
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« Reply #10 on: February 20, 2015, 06:12:30 AM »

Another question: Will she lose a county in the Oklahoma primary?

Of course. Randall Terry won 3 (?) counties in Oklahoma in 2012.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #11 on: February 20, 2015, 06:45:56 AM »

Her service as Secretary of State for Obama is probably a huge negative for these voters.

She might actually finish with a lower % than Obama did in 2012. Of course that means she'll do better than Obama in places like New Hampshire, Nevada and Pennsylvania, but still...
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Suburbia
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« Reply #12 on: February 20, 2015, 08:36:42 AM »

She may win four counties in Oklahoma.
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VPH
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« Reply #13 on: February 20, 2015, 03:02:12 PM »

I totally disagree. Hillary will win one or two counties in CD 02.
If a Democrat can win some counties in Oklahoma against an incumbent Republican, while other Republicans surprisingly won (Maryland) or almost won (Vermont) in deep-blue states, Hillary can draw level with Dorman.
Remember: Both in 2004 and 2008 the Democratic nominees lost in Oklahoma, and in 2012 it was one of Obama's worst states.




Kinda doubt she'll do this well. I could see her pulling Muskogee County and not much more.
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Joe Biden 2020
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« Reply #14 on: February 20, 2015, 08:51:01 PM »

Hillary won't win anything in Oklahoma.  Her name is as toxic as Barack Obama.  Bill could probably win a few counties here, but Bill =/= Hillary.
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