When will New Jersey become competitive?

[ElectionsGuy]

Is New Jersey trending Republican? After all, it is the richest state in America. Can the good showing with Asians and Hispanics in 2014 carry on to the next presidential elections? Discuss!

[Sol]

No. If anything, NJ is set to be the next Vermont.

[OldDominion]

No. If anything, NJ is set to be the next Vermont.

This. It is likely Dem in all presidential elections, highly urban and suburban mostly everywhere else minus your Pine Barrens and some parts down the shore, and there are demographic projection reports out there that make it maj-min in a few decades. It's not going Republican anytime soon. Locally and state (see Christie and Whitman) it can swing for moderate Reps but this is a rare thing.

[Free Bird]

To say any state will stay the way it is forever is foolish.

[Skill and Chance]

It's more likely to trend into being a >60% Dem base state going forward.  If you're looking for a GOP swing among the wealthy, CT/OR/WA are the ones to watch.

[ElectionsGuy]

Do you guys get it now? People on this sub board are asking when South Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Arizona, even Tennessee for crying out loud, will become competitive. We always think red states are trending blue, not the other way around. I wanted a state equally as ridiculous on the Democratic side to see the reaction, and as expected, nobody is buying it.

[Skill and Chance]

Do you guys get it now? People on this sub board are asking when South Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Arizona, even Tennessee for crying out loud, will become competitive. We always think red states are trending blue, not the other way around. I wanted a state equally as ridiculous on the Democratic side to see the reaction, and as expected, nobody is buying it.

But it's not really a fair comparison.  I would buy Connecticut becoming competitive under the right circumstances, and it is currently just as liberal as NJ.

[IceSpear]

Once a single unreliable poll shows it competitive, of course!

[MATTROSE94]

I know that Hillary Clinton will probably carry NJ by a comfortable margin in 2016 (maybe with 60% of the vote), but assuming that Clinton steps down in 2020 and is succeeded by Rand Paul, could he win the state in his 2024 re-election bid if his approval ratings are high enough and if his Democratic opponent is weak?

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

When the Republicans become a party that appeals to the culturally liberal, urbanites, and minorities.  Mitt Romney was thought to have been a good Republican for NJ.  He almost dropped under 40% here.  Not to mention the union presence in NJ.

NJ is going to be solidly Democratic for a long time.  The GOP might want to look elsewhere to pick up votes.

[bedstuy]

Do you guys get it now? People on this sub board are asking when South Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Arizona, even Tennessee for crying out loud, will become competitive. We always think red states are trending blue, not the other way around. I wanted a state equally as ridiculous on the Democratic side to see the reaction, and as expected, nobody is buying it.

A majority of people here said that South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas are going to be competitive states?  I don't believe you.  And, if someone incorrectly says that, does that mean the converse is true?  And also, congratulations, you've cracked the code, people are overly optimistic about the political party they support.  We all know that and it's incredibly tedious to whine about it.  Say something that actually matters, give a different theory and support it with evidence and arguments. 

Saying, "waahhhhh, you don't like my political party!  You're mean!!!"  It's just tedious and nobody cares. 

Just to state the facts, none of these states are competitive outside a landslide election.  If a Republican is close to winning NJ, they've already won.  If the electoral map shifts to make NJ competitive, Republicans will have a lock on the Presidency.  Same with Tennessee for the Dems.  These are just facts, it's not worth having an aspergers fit over this.

[Boston Bread]

I'm not one to say SC/TX are turning blue. But it's easier to make claims that states are going to trend democratic because of demographic changes. Few states if any are becoming more white. So any GOP trends will have to be from voters changing habits, whether they be whites or minorities. It's harder to say where the GOP will get new voters since it's more complicated than following demographic trends which are the source of most of the D-trend claims. Thus you don't see threads saying X blue state is going to become competitive. Especially now that the GOP has taken most of the low-hanging fruit, in the form of former southern white democrats.

[Nichlemn]

To say any state will stay the way it is forever is foolish.

Basically this. I expect every state (i.e. not DC) to vote for more than one party at least once in the next century. It easily happened during the last century and I don't think we've reached some kind of political stasis right now, although we probably won't see quite the fluidity as we have.

[ElectionsGuy]

Do you guys get it now? People on this sub board are asking when South Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Arizona, even Tennessee for crying out loud, will become competitive. We always think red states are trending blue, not the other way around. I wanted a state equally as ridiculous on the Democratic side to see the reaction, and as expected, nobody is buying it.

A majority of people here said that South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas are going to be competitive states?  I don't believe you.  And, if someone incorrectly says that, does that mean the converse is true?  And also, congratulations, you've cracked the code, people are overly optimistic about the political party they support.  We all know that and it's incredibly tedious to whine about it.  Say something that actually matters, give a different theory and support it with evidence and arguments. 

Saying, "waahhhhh, you don't like my political party!  You're mean!!!"  It's just tedious and nobody cares. 

Just to state the facts, none of these states are competitive outside a landslide election.  If a Republican is close to winning NJ, they've already won.  If the electoral map shifts to make NJ competitive, Republicans will have a lock on the Presidency.  Same with Tennessee for the Dems.  These are just facts, it's not worth having an aspergers fit over this.

Why are you putting words in my mouth? I never said the majority of people here believed that, and I'm not "whining" about it as you imply. I'm trying to point out the unconscious biases here that many don't realize, using the "muh demographics" line as evidence a state will trend Democratic, so I simply did the opposite and see how people would react, that's all. Just a little experiment, no whining or having a "fit".

South Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas have either seen a Republican trend or no significant trend, and New Jersey has seen a slight Democratic trend. I understand if people legitimately want to find out when a state will become competitive or opposite of its current position, but then we should be asking it about all the states, not just red states. 

[bedstuy]

Do you guys get it now? People on this sub board are asking when South Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Arizona, even Tennessee for crying out loud, will become competitive. We always think red states are trending blue, not the other way around. I wanted a state equally as ridiculous on the Democratic side to see the reaction, and as expected, nobody is buying it.

A majority of people here said that South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas are going to be competitive states?  I don't believe you.  And, if someone incorrectly says that, does that mean the converse is true?  And also, congratulations, you've cracked the code, people are overly optimistic about the political party they support.  We all know that and it's incredibly tedious to whine about it.  Say something that actually matters, give a different theory and support it with evidence and arguments. 

Saying, "waahhhhh, you don't like my political party!  You're mean!!!"  It's just tedious and nobody cares. 

Just to state the facts, none of these states are competitive outside a landslide election.  If a Republican is close to winning NJ, they've already won.  If the electoral map shifts to make NJ competitive, Republicans will have a lock on the Presidency.  Same with Tennessee for the Dems.  These are just facts, it's not worth having an aspergers fit over this.

Why are you putting words in my mouth? I never said the majority of people here believed that, and I'm not "whining" about it as you imply. I'm trying to point out the unconscious biases here that many don't realize, using the "muh demographics" line as evidence a state will trend Democratic, so I simply did the opposite and see how people would react, that's all. Just a little experiment, no whining or having a "fit".

South Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas have either seen a Republican trend or no significant trend, and New Jersey has seen a slight Democratic trend. I understand if people legitimately want to find out when a state will become competitive or opposite of its current position, but then we should be asking it about all the states, not just red states. 

OK, so let's rephrase your point in a less annoying way.

Before:  Seems like New Jersey is going to become a competitive state in Presidential elections.

After:  Doesn't seem like South Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas are going to become competitive states in Presidential elections.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Is New Jersey trending Republican? After all, it is the richest state in America. Can the good showing with Asians and Hispanics in 2014 carry on to the next presidential elections? Discuss!

2020

[jaichind]

No, it even swung towards the Dems in 2012. It won't be competitive any time soon. Unless the GOP could suddenly win the state in a Presidential Election like Christie did in 2013 (which would require winning the Hispanic vote narrowly and getting 20% of the Black vote). I doubt it.

NJ swung toward Dems mostly because of Hurricane Sandy.   The map of severity of Hurricane Sandy matches the swing toward Dems pretty nicely.

[hopper]

NJ will not be competitive for the near future because most of the population growth areas are the Hudson County Suburbs which are heavily Hispanic. Eastern Bergen County is growing and has a heavily growing Asian Population which is mainly Dem. I think if the GOP updated their policies hey could win Bergen or at least make the county close in terms of popular vote but I don't think they will win Hudson County or even make he county close popular vote wise.

[Mr. Illini]

NJ is the most urbanized state in the country and has a perfect combination of liberal white centers, union presence, heavily minority areas, etc. It's a Democratic goldmine.

[hopper]

NJ is the most urbanized state in the country and has a perfect combination of liberal white centers, union presence, heavily minority areas, etc. It's a Democratic goldmine.

I don't know of any liberal white centers. True about he union presence though "The Teachers Union" is very powerful.

[Sol]

NJ is the most urbanized state in the country and has a perfect combination of liberal white centers, union presence, heavily minority areas, etc. It's a Democratic goldmine.

I don't know of any liberal white centers. True about he union presence though "The Teachers Union" is very powerful.

Hoboken? Tenafly?

[bobloblaw]

Do you guys get it now? People on this sub board are asking when South Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Arizona, even Tennessee for crying out loud, will become competitive. We always think red states are trending blue, not the other way around. I wanted a state equally as ridiculous on the Democratic side to see the reaction, and as expected, nobody is buying it.

That is because liberals believe in historical inevitability. Just like their patron saint Karl Marx.

[traininthedistance]

NJ is the most urbanized state in the country and has a perfect combination of liberal white centers, union presence, heavily minority areas, etc. It's a Democratic goldmine.

I don't know of any liberal white centers. True about he union presence though "The Teachers Union" is very powerful.

Hoboken? Tenafly?

Montclair, West Orange, Highland Park, Princeton, Cherry Hill...

Plenty of areas with a large white liberal presence in NJ.

[The Mikado]

There are Dem states that are trending GOP. Minnesota has moved from Safe Dem to Lean Dem over the last few decades as Minnesota has drifted away from its roots as one of the most left wing states in the country, and Wisconsin is even further along in that same progression. I'm not sure what the hell is happening in Iowa, but it seems to be trending R as well.

New Jersey isn't one.

GOP offense should be focused, after the obvious four swing states of Colorado, Ohio, Florida, and Virginia, on the Upper Midwest. If they can't make inroads there, the very harsh reality that they need three out of the four aforementioned swing states to even have a chance at winning has to be faced.

[DS0816]

Is New Jersey trending Republican? …

No.