When will New Jersey become competitive?

[Simfan34]

No. If anything, NJ is set to be the next Vermont.

This. It is likely Dem in all presidential elections, highly urban and suburban mostly everywhere else minus your Pine Barrens and some parts down the shore, and there are demographic projection reports out there that make it maj-min in a few decades. It's not going Republican anytime soon. Locally and state (see Christie and Whitman) it can swing for moderate Reps but this is a rare thing.

That's not what Vermont is, however. New Jersey is nothing like Vermont. This is beyond elementary.

[hopper]

NJ is the most urbanized state in the country and has a perfect combination of liberal white centers, union presence, heavily minority areas, etc. It's a Democratic goldmine.

I don't know of any liberal white centers. True about he union presence though "The Teachers Union" is very powerful.

Hoboken? Tenafly?

Montclair, West Orange, Highland Park, Princeton, Cherry Hill...

Plenty of areas with a large white liberal presence in NJ.

True some Essex County Suburbs are Very Moderate or Liberal by White Vote Standards Nationally

2012 Essex County Popular Vote by Suburb and (White% by Rank)

Maplewood: 82-17% Obama(2008) (56% White)
West Orange: 68-29 Obama(2008) (57% White)
South Orange 81-18% Obama(2008) (60% White)
Bloomfield: 70-29% Obama (60% White)
Belleville:  66-33% Obama (61% White)
Montclair: 83-16% Obama(2008) (62% White) (33% Catholic) (Has a lot of people that work in NYC.)
Livingston 51-48% Obama (76% White) (46% Jewish)
Milburn: 55-44 Obama (80% White)
Nutley: 50-49% Obama (83% White)
Glen Ridge: 63-36% Obama (86% White)
Caldwell: 50-49% Obama (87% White)
Cedar Grove: 57-42 Romney (89% White)
Verona: 50-49% Obama (91% White)
Roseland: 58-41% Romney (91% White)
North Caldwell: 61-38% Romney (92% White)
West Caldwell: 55-44 Romney (93% White)
Fairfield: 69-30% Romney (95% White)
Essex Fells 70-29% Romney(95% White)

The only oddballs here is Verona voted for Obama just barely but Verona for McCain in 2008 just barely and voted for Bush W. by just about the national average and the town is 91% White. Roseland and Cedar Grove which are both neighboring towns to Verona on each end voted for Romney by a sizeable margin.

Glen Ridge borders Montclair and Bloomfield so no surprise Obama carried the town by that margin.  Montclair has a lot of people that take the train to NYC each day and the town has a 26% Black Population.

West Orange is not as urbanized as South Orange or Maplewood.

McCain won Nutley 52-46% in 2008 but Obama won it 50-49% in 2012. I think Romney made Hispanics upset over immigration that he didn't carry the town. Hispanics doubled from 7% of the towns population in 2000 to 12% in 2010 from US Census figures.

[hopper]

I'm shocked on how Dem Highland Park is since the town is 78% White. Princeton is a big college town so of course its liberal. Cherry Hill is part of the Philly-South Jersey Metro Area.

[Sol]

No. If anything, NJ is set to be the next Vermont.

This. It is likely Dem in all presidential elections, highly urban and suburban mostly everywhere else minus your Pine Barrens and some parts down the shore, and there are demographic projection reports out there that make it maj-min in a few decades. It's not going Republican anytime soon. Locally and state (see Christie and Whitman) it can swing for moderate Reps but this is a rare thing.

That's not what Vermont is, however. New Jersey is nothing like Vermont. This is beyond elementary.

I was using Vermont in the sense of "ultra-safe democratic state"