Political Parties in Quebec

[mountvernon]

Monolingual Anglophone American here, though one with an unusual interest in Canada.  I have a

I understand the dominant cleavage in Quebec politics is on the sovereignty question -- that's what determines whether someone is a Liberal or a Pequiste.  From what I gather, the Liberals are slightly to the right of the PQ on socioeconomic questions, but the difference is not great, and both provincial parties are left-of-center by Canadian standards.   (The ADQ/CAQ leans right, and the QS is way, way left, but my questions are more about what makes a Francophone choose between the two major parties).

Because of the sovereignty question, Anglophones, allophones and ethnic Quebecers of all kinds are essentially unanimously Liberal.  To outside eyes like mine, the Francophone majority looks rather homogenous, and it appears that "divisions in the head" on sovereignty explain partisanship more than demographic variables do.  But as I try to understand what makes someone Liberal / Non or PQ / Oui, I have encountered some confusing issues.

In all of these matters, I'm talking exclusively about Francophones, since non-Francophones vote overwhelmingly Liberal.

Socioeconomic Status: This seems to be a complex pattern, perhaps reflecting partisanship's grounding in the sovereignty question, rather than socioeconomic issues. I have read several accounts that state higher education is associated with support for the PQ (at least among Baby Boomers), but higher income may be associated with support for the Liberals.  (While these seem to contradict each other, this phenomenon is quite common in the United States).  I have also seen that provincial government workers lean to the PQ, but federal and private-sector workers are more Liberal.  (And yet Quebec City, especially its suburbs, has been cool to the PQ). The business community as a whole leans Liberal, although many small businesspeople vote ADQ / CAQ.  Professionals and "intellectuals" lean PQ, although some younger ones prefer the QS.  Are these assertions correct?

Gender: Women lean Liberal and are also more likely to back QS.  I've seen these preferences described as a reflection of women's aversion to risk (a pretty consistent finding across societies), which makes them less supportive of Quebec independence.  I've also seen women's allegiance explained as reflecting stronger ties of the Liberals and QS to feminist groups.  Do people have any insights?

Religiosity: I understand that Quebec Francophones have some of the lowest levels of religious observance in the industrialized world.  Does religiosity still have any political relevance at all?  I've read that the Liberals tend to perform better with the religiously observant, but that might reflect a higher level of religiosity among non-Francophones.  (An observer from 1950 reading that sentence would think I had lost my mind).  Or perhaps the PQ is seen as a militantly secular party.  Despite performing well in traditionally strongly Catholic areas such as the Chaudiere-Appalaches, I gather the ADQ / CAQ is not socially conservative, and has no particular appeal to observant Catholics.

Age: Here we find a cohort pattern -- with Liberals performing best with the oldest voters, who came of age before separatism entered the political mainstream, and the PQ strongest with Baby Boomers, who came of age during the separatist golden age of the 1970s.  (I would guess the Union Nationale's onetime voters are almost entirely dead now).  Younger voters are apparently less interested in the sovereignty question, and are more willing to back either the CAQ or the QS.  Of the two major parties, which one is performing better among voters under 50?

Bilingualism: Maps seem to show a pattern of the PQ doing better in areas with lots of monolingual Francophones, e.g. Saguenay.  But I haven't seen anything saying whether bilingual Francophones are actually more likely to oppose separatism.  I have seen a few accounts suggesting that Francophones with strong emotional ties to Canada, or with personal relationships with non-Francophones and the ROC, are less separatist.  But I don't know bilingualism has anything to do with it.  The traditional tie between education and support for the PQ would seem to argue against such a link.

So does anyone have any answers to these questions?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Quebec is a funny place. For example, although the PLQ is ostensibly a 'political party' a more appropriate description would be 'organised criminal racket'. Basically the PLQ has no real political positions (unless corruption is a position) beyond supporting whoever is boss. Luckily the PLQ basically can be as bad as they want because their floor is so high. I don't think the party is in much risk of demographic decline, unlike its key rival.

In terms of the three francophones: PQ get the rural poor. With their, err, 'reputation' you can imagine the ethnicity of their voters as well. I really would class the PQ as more of a working class organisation than one that highly grabs the educated.

if we divide the francophone Middle class - who dislike the Rural oiks of the PQ - into two, the educated trendies of North Montreal vote QS and the affluents vote for CAQ. The middle class seem to be turning from PQ IMO.

[DC Al Fine]

When I lived in Quebec City, my church had a pretty strong anti-PQ vibe, but there wasn't really any strong partisan lean. It was a fairly even split between PLQ and ADQ/CAQ. Of course that was in an Evangelical church, so I'm not sure if it applies to practicing Catholics.

[Linus Van Pelt]

The OP seems mostly right to me. I'm not sure Chaudiere-Appalaches is particularly more religious than any other area of rural Quebec, though.

Even if it is not a large portion of their overall votes, there is definitely a strong educated middle-class component to the traditional PQ activist base in the public and cultural sectors. It is, for example, something of a cliché that humanities professors or artists in francophone Montreal are sovereigntist. There is a strand of Quebec nationalism that has to do with the francophone cultural elite's desire to be their own national capital. This is connected to why the populist francophone right is often non-sovereigntist. A certain type of ADQ/CAQ voter views sovereignty as a kind of Montreal elite concern even while having little emotional connection to Canada outside Quebec.

[mountvernon]

Thanks for the comments!  Of course, I forgot to mention the PQ's traditional ties to organized labor, which I guess helps explain its strength in industrialized areas like Saguenay.  Most of the accounts claiming that the PQ is stronger among the better-educated Francophones are from the 1970s and 1980s.  It sounds like younger members of this demographic are not so supportive of separatism.

Here are a few geographic-specific questions.

Why does the Quebec City region stand out for its conservatism and (relative) federalism?  Not what I would expect from a traditional center of Francophone life.  Presumably, there are plenty of provincial civil servants in the area.

Why is the PQ so much stronger on the North Shore than on the South Shore? In the Montreal area, is it just that the South Shore suburbs have more anglophones and allophones?  Downriver, is it because there's more heavy industry on the North Shore?  Why the relative conservatism of Chaudiere-Appalaches and Centre-du-Quebec?

Is there any link between federalism and bilingualism?  The Estrie has a large bilingual population, and is generally Liberal and hostile to separatism.  But there are some rural Francophone areas like Chaudiere-Appalaches that are also hostile to separatism, but don't have many bilinguals.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Another thing to note is that when the British took over from the French in 1763, the population was mostly in the St. Lawrence valley, which is richly agricultural. The area along the Chaudière river extending south from Quebec City up into the mountains in the Beauce was also settled, however, and had a distinct identity as a remote and hilly region. The Eastern Townships, by contrast, had basically no white population at this time; they were initially settled by English-speakers in the late 18th and early 19th centuries, which is why the towns there have English names, and only became majority Francophone in the late 19th Century after industrialization brought in many factory workers. Similarly, regions like the Saguenay or the Abitibi were settled due to industrial development.

The conservative area around the Beauce, thus, corresponds roughly to the area where French-speakers settled inland, away from the St. Lawrence, prior to industrialization and British rule.

[MaxQue]

Let's also note than there is an huge exodus of British people from some areas in the Eastern Townships (and other rural areas in Quebec) since the 60's. They move to Montreal area or to other provinces.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Let's also note than there is an huge exodus of British people from some areas in the Eastern Townships (and other rural areas in Quebec) since the 60's. They move to Montreal area or to other provinces.

How acute has this exodus been?

[MaxQue]

Let's also note than there is an huge exodus of British people from some areas in the Eastern Townships (and other rural areas in Quebec) since the 60's. They move to Montreal area or to other provinces.

How acute has this exodus been?

Hard to say. Very variable depending on communities and area (and let's not discount the people who married with French people and had french-speaking kids).

For exemple, pretty much all the Jewish community left rural areas in the 60's for Montreal or other provinces.

The 1976 and 1980 scares had a big effect too (first election of PQ and first referendum) as did the closure of military bases and corporate HQs moving to Toronto. Now, it's old English rural people dying and young adultsmoving to cities and/or other provinces.