Which state is most likely to vote for only one party over the next century?

[Nichlemn]

(States only, i.e. not DC, which is the obvious answer otherwise).

Your answer may differ from the state you think is least likely to vote for the "other party" in the next election, as it depends on how viable you think it is to swing.

I'm thinking Wyoming. It's the state which I think has the least plausible turn of events which could involve it voting Democratic in a Presidential election. That said, over that long a time frame I think it still has a good, possibly even >50% chance of voting D at least once. It's just that I think the primary way is just a Dem winning a massive landslide, whereas other states have semi-plausible routes to having a low PVI.

Utah is another possibility, but I think the Mormon factor is a wildcard that leaves potential for big swings (maybe non-Mormons become a majority and remain strongly D, maybe the LDS Church falls out with Republicans somehow and helps cause a big bloc swing) that it's more plausible than Wyoming.

[TDAS04]

Wyoming is the best guess.

[MT Treasurer]

Well, my guess would also be Wyoming. However, since the state is so sparsely populated, migration could turn it purple (I know it's unlikely, but still possible). Another possibility may be WV (it's trending R as fast as VA is trending D and I don't see that trend being reversed in near future) or OK.

[Skill and Chance]

I also like Wyoming.  It just has too many different GOP interests that dominate the state.  If any one of those groups flipped, the rest would be enough to keep the state red.

Other possibilities:

Utah- looks like a good guess on the surface, but a one-off Todd Akin/George Allen style anti-Mormon gaffe could do enough damage to swing it.
Vermont- Probably the best Dem possibility, but there's a good argument that rural New England is already more Dem than it "should" be
Maryland- 2nd best Dem possibility in my view.  It's close to a Dem Wyoming in terms of so many naturally progressive groups dominating the state, but it's not quite as partisan statewide.
Hawaii- would probably still swing if a GOP incumbent is getting a national landslide

[5280]

Rep:

Wyoming
Utah
Idaho

Dem:

Maryland
Vermont
New York

[Skill and Chance]

Well, my guess would also be Wyoming. However, since the state is so sparsely populated, migration could turn it purple (I know it's unlikely, but still possible). Another possibility may be WV (it's trending R as fast as VA is trending D and I don't see that trend being reversed in near future) or OK.

That is a good point.  Half a CD worth of the Bay Area moves to Wyoming and it's all over for the WY GOP.  Something similar could happen in Vermont if e.g. there was an oil boom there.  So it's probably better to bet on a larger state like Maryland.  The more I think about, the more I actually like California and Texas as the best possibilities for each party.  There's just too many people to convince.

[Sumner 1868]

There has been no case of a state voting for only one party for an entire century in U.S. history.

[Rockefeller GOP]

There has been no case of a state voting for only one party for an entire century in U.S. history.

But our current demographic trends and partisan coalitions will continue forever ... Or have you not heard?!

[Skill and Chance]

There has been no case of a state voting for only one party for an entire century in U.S. history.

There actually has.  Vermont voted Republican from 1856-1960.  We also had Georgia vote Democratic every election from 1868-1960, and if GA had still been in the Union in 1864, it surely wouldn't have voted to re-elect Lincoln, so that's really an 1852-1960 streak there.

Of course, elections in Georgia were unambiguously rigged by modern standards for most all of that period, but they weren't in Vermont and they still managed a 100 year streak.  So I think it's a logical possibility for at least 1 or 2 states this century.

Edited for Wilson win in Maine

[Sumner 1868]

I was indeed wrong with regard to Vermont. Thank you for correcting me. But I maintain my disbelief that current norms will last throughout the 21st century. Vermont, it should be noted, using discriminatory gerrymandering practices shutting out Democratic areas to maintain the GOP dominance.

By the way, Wilson won Maine in 1912 due to the spoiler effect of TR. It'd have certainly gone Republican in a two-way race, though.

[Skill and Chance]

I was indeed wrong with regard to Vermont. Thank you for correcting me. But I maintain my disbelief that current norms will last throughout the 21st century. Vermont, it should be noted, using discriminatory gerrymandering practices shutting out Democratic areas to maintain the GOP dominance.

By the way, Wilson won Maine in 1912 due to the spoiler effect of TR. It'd have certainly gone Republican in a two-way race, though.

Well, I would actually say things are more polarized today.  1964, when VT and GA finally flipped was basically the rest of the country telling off the South, in a way that transcended traditional partisanship.

From today's point of view, I could easily see UT/ID/WY staying R through 2064.

[Goldwater]

I think a good case could be made for Idaho. Wyoming is small enough that a sudden increase in population could change it's political leanings, I could see Utah could voting Democrat if the election happens to be a Mormon Democrat vs. a Republican that makes controversial negative comments about Mormons/Mormonism, and Idaho is one of the states that has voted Republican since 1968, meaning it's already been voting for the same party for almost 50 years.

[OldDominion]

Utah - Republican.
New York, Maryland - Democratic.

Cali - maybe Dem but if the GOP moderates, maybe a shift back to them over time but I doubt it. Vermont, same thing.

[ElectionsGuy]

These states have voted Republican since 1968, so they would need to vote Republican until 2068 to have a full century. For Democratic states, its less so. Minnesota is the longest since 1976, and most others are 1988 and 1992.

For the future, I can't see states like Massachusetts, New York, and California going Republican even in huge blowouts, and I can't imagine many of the red (Atlas blue) states above going Democratic, along with some of the rural south (like Tennessee, Arkansas, Alabama, etc.)

[Skill and Chance]

I think a good case could be made for Idaho. Wyoming is small enough that a sudden increase in population could change it's political leanings, I could see Utah could voting Democrat if the election happens to be a Mormon Democrat vs. a Republican that makes controversial negative comments about Mormons/Mormonism, and Idaho is one of the states that has voted Republican since 1968, meaning it's already been voting for the same party for almost 50 years.

It also voted very narrowly for LBJ over Goldwater. However, I think OK is more probable than ID.

Not convinced of that.  If/when social issues die down, OK is a lot poorer.

[RFayette]

I think a good case could be made for Idaho. Wyoming is small enough that a sudden increase in population could change it's political leanings, I could see Utah could voting Democrat if the election happens to be a Mormon Democrat vs. a Republican that makes controversial negative comments about Mormons/Mormonism, and Idaho is one of the states that has voted Republican since 1968, meaning it's already been voting for the same party for almost 50 years.

It also voted very narrowly for LBJ over Goldwater. However, I think OK is more probable than ID.

Not convinced of that.  If/when social issues die down, OK is a lot poorer.

Yeah, but cost-of-living in Oklahoma is low, and since a relatively low % go to college, student debt is pretty low, and Okies with college degrees don't have as much competition, probably making finding a job easier than in a lot of the super-educated parts of the country. 

I think for whites in a lot of these "poor" Southern states, the quality of life and satisfaction is rather high.

[MATTROSE94]

Democrats:
New York
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Maryland
Hawaii
California
Possibly Illinois due to the dominance of the Cook County Democratic machine during Presidential election years.

Republicans:
Idaho
Wyoming
Utah
Oklahoma
Possibly West Virginia if the Democrats continue to push for environmental policies that are perceived as unfriendly to the coal industry.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Over a century?  That's almost impossible to predict, but I'll have to say Wyoming.  I just can't see a plausible scenario where that state votes Democratic.  It is absolutely remarkable that Clinton even came within 6% because of Perot in 1992. 

[Sumner 1868]

We seem to be defining this only in presidential terms.

[Simfan34]

What would cause several hundred liberals to move to Wyoming en-masse?