Chicago mayoral runoff election today (7 April 2015)

[Mr. Illini]

The people have spoken! Chicago won't stand for attacks on public education.

What would you say are the chances that Emanuel loses the runoff?

Well the odds are in his favor, but a lot remains to be seen. Wilson's percentages are more likely to go to Rahm while Fioretti voters are certain to go to Chuy. It depends on how much of the African-Americans that deflected to Wilson we see Chuy capture. A lot will depend on what the tone is, but I can see anything from a Rahm victory with a similar margin to tonight to a neck and neck race to a 3-pt Chuy victory.

Should be exciting any way it goes, I think.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I will vote for Garcia in the 4-7-15, primary. Emanual's era of vulnerability is over. Chicago need a true progressive.

[Mr. Illini]

I will vote for Garcia in the 4-7-15, primary. Emanual's era of vulnerability is over. Chicago need a true progressive.

Amen. Who did you vote for today, out of curiosity?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dock Walls but he didnt win.

[Miles]

Map I made of turnout:



It was about 32% citywide. Highest turnout ward was 19, which was anti-Rahm.

Matthew Isbell has some good maps at his blog:

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Voters are mad about economy and took their frustration out by denying a majority of the vote to Emanual. Especially, with parking meters. Garcia, will be nxt mayor of Chicago. Who wont change that much as far as criminal justice in the city.

If only Tony Preckwrinkle won the mayoral election.

Deb Mell will lose but Daley will win aldermatic runoff, along with soon to be mayor Garcia.

[Vega]

I'm really kinda shocked about this, I thought Rahm would break 50%.

Oh well. Not like I really like him.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Michael Ballandick, Jane Byrne, tragedy of Harold Washington and Eugene Sawyer, 1 term curse may fall on Emanual. With the exception of Rich Daley.

[Hatman 🍁]

What's up with District 13?

[Mr. Illini]

The ward results paint an almost perfect map of the racial make-up of the city - white areas were 50+% Rahm, black areas were plurality Rahm, and Hispanic areas were 50+% Chuy.

Conversely, black and white areas swung strongest against Rahm, while Hispanic areas swung toward Rahm (in 2011 they went to Gery Chico).

Really interesting stuff, and showing a less racially polarized map than four years ago once you dig into it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Some white wards like Albany Park where Deb Mel and Uptown ward where Amy Cappleman and Rogers Park, are biracial and will be looking to Garcia as well. Where the runoffs will vote against incumbant.

[Mr. Illini]

The key will be, if black neighborhoods went 40-50% for Rahm, how will Wall and Wilson voters vote? Can Rahm push 50 in those wards or will most dissenting voters continue to dissent and vote for Chuy? There still is tension between African-American and Hispanic neighborhoods, and a lot of people are thinking that black wards will drift toward Rahm. Garcia didn't do actually that bad in black neighborhoods, but where is his ceiling? These are the big questions.

[Maxwell]

Why did Garcia do worse among Hispanics than Chico?

If he didn't, then why did Hispanics trend Rahm?

[ill ind]

What's up with District 13?

Ward 13 Comitteeman is Il Dem Chairman and house speaker Michael J Madigan..He was able to assemble the remnants of the 'machine' to bring out the vote for Rahm

[traininthedistance]

I wasn't necessarily a huge fan of Mr. Emanuel before, but hearing that so much of the opposition to Rahmbo is from entitled motorists who think they have a birthright to drive dangerously is pretty sickening.

Go Rahm.

[Mr. Illini]

Why did Garcia do worse among Hispanics than Chico?

If he didn't, then why did Hispanics trend Rahm?

If I had to guess, it would be that Chuy was less of a racially polarizing candidate. Chico was very much seen as the "Hispanic candidate" whereas Chuy was seen as the progressive candidate, not necessarily with his base of support limited to one group. The shift of white/black areas away from Rahm and Hispanic areas away from the Hispanic candidate represents less racially-charged results than 4 years ago as a whole.

I wasn't necessarily a huge fan of Mr. Emanuel before, but hearing that so much of the opposition to Rahmbo is from entitled motorists who think they have a birthright to drive dangerously is pretty sickening.

Go Rahm.

You have no idea what you're talking about.

[traininthedistance]

I wasn't necessarily a huge fan of Mr. Emanuel before, but hearing that so much of the opposition to Rahmbo is from entitled motorists who think they have a birthright to drive dangerously is pretty sickening.

Go Rahm.

You have no idea what you're talking about.

Okay, feel free to enlighten me.  Just don't try to say that setting yellow lights to the posted speed limit is somehow a grave affront to "justice" or anything, because that sort of argument is, well, exactly the sort of motorist entitlement that needs to stop being elevated over all else.

[The Other Castro]

I wasn't necessarily a huge fan of Mr. Emanuel before, but hearing that so much of the opposition to Rahmbo is from entitled motorists who think they have a birthright to drive dangerously is pretty sickening.

Go Rahm.

You have no idea what you're talking about.

Okay, feel free to enlighten me.  Just don't try to say that setting yellow lights to the posted speed limit is somehow a grave affront to "justice" or anything, because that sort of argument is, well, exactly the sort of motorist entitlement that needs to stop being elevated over all else.

Maybe, just maybe, other issues like education just MIGHT also be part of the reason why some people aren't huge Rahm fans.

[Mr. Illini]

I wasn't necessarily a huge fan of Mr. Emanuel before, but hearing that so much of the opposition to Rahmbo is from entitled motorists who think they have a birthright to drive dangerously is pretty sickening.

Go Rahm.

You have no idea what you're talking about.

Okay, feel free to enlighten me.  Just don't try to say that setting yellow lights to the posted speed limit is somehow a grave affront to "justice" or anything, because that sort of argument is, well, exactly the sort of motorist entitlement that needs to stop being elevated over all else.

The red-light issue is only one in a plethora. The teacher strike and school closings are huge, as is public housing, worker pensions, reducing appointed positions, CTA hikes, etc.

The majority of Chuy supporters that I have engaged with have not even spoken of the red-light cameras, and as an anti-Rahm guy myself, I can tell you that the cameras are not a main source of my opposition. It's largely been a race of the progressives against the centrist Dems, not the pro-red light cameras vs the anti-red light cameras.

[© tweed]

Rahm should be able to tilt a close race if he needs to.  it is fcking Chicago after all.

[Torie]

I like Rahm. If the CTU hates him, that makes him my hero. However, I suspect he would be in considerable trouble, without Obama at his back to help him hold the black vote. It also helps that his opponent is Hispanic with blacks I suspect. But that is offset by his opponent presumably doing much better with Hispanics than he otherwise might. So Obama is probably the key, to Rahm being the favorite, and his opponent something of a long shot.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Patty Blagojevich's sister, Deb Mell and alot of aldermatic races that Emanual has endorsed are gonna be tilted towards the challengers, in runoffs. There will be new alderman supported by Garcia.  The college and younger latinos must come out.

But Garcia has the policy as Emanual when it comes to fighring crime.

[traininthedistance]

I wasn't necessarily a huge fan of Mr. Emanuel before, but hearing that so much of the opposition to Rahmbo is from entitled motorists who think they have a birthright to drive dangerously is pretty sickening.

Go Rahm.

You have no idea what you're talking about.

Okay, feel free to enlighten me.  Just don't try to say that setting yellow lights to the posted speed limit is somehow a grave affront to "justice" or anything, because that sort of argument is, well, exactly the sort of motorist entitlement that needs to stop being elevated over all else.

The red-light issue is only one in a plethora. The teacher strike and school closings are huge, as is public housing, worker pensions, reducing appointed positions, CTA hikes, etc.

The majority of Chuy supporters that I have engaged with have not even spoken of the red-light cameras, and as an anti-Rahm guy myself, I can tell you that the cameras are not a main source of my opposition. It's largely been a race of the progressives against the centrist Dems, not the pro-red light cameras vs the anti-red light cameras.

Fair 'nuff.  I do actually realize there are many issues at play, and I'm sure I'd disagree with Rahm in a fair number of them; just wanted to pre-emptively push back against that sort of faux-populist claptrap in the same way that I've defended Maryland's so-called "rain tax".  It always annoys me when dissatisfaction with establishment Dems (even and especially if for unrelated reasons) gets spun as a reason to cast aside smart urban policy, and I've seen that sort of spin in multiple sources recently.  It's kinda my hobbyhorse, sorry.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Garcia made the runoff which everyone thought he will lose outright and promises no property tax increases and pension reform, a Rauner reform, but progressives like him because he is not the incumbant.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Map I made of turnout:



It was about 32% citywide. Highest turnout ward was 19, which was anti-Rahm.

Matthew Isbell has some good maps at his blog:

Nice.  It's noteworthy to point out that Garcia's districts match up pretty nicely within the borders of the 4th Congressional District.