The Demographic Evolution of the American Electorate, 1974–2060

[retromike22]

Have fun:

https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/progressive-movement/report/2015/02/24/107261/states-of-change/

[retromike22]

Some tidbits:

1. It is projected that by 2060 there will be more Asians/Others than Blacks: In 1980, the population of the United States was 80 percent white. Today, that proportion has fallen to 63 percent, and by 2060, it is projected to be less than 44 percent. Hispanics were 6 percent in 1980, are 17 percent today, and should be 29 percent by 2060. Asians/Others were just 2 percent in 1980, are 8 percent today, and should be 15 percent by 2060. Blacks, however, should be stable at 12 percent to 13 percent over the time period.

2. The next two majority-minority states, Maryland and Nevada, should arrive in the next five years. After that, there should be four more in the 2020s: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and New Jersey.

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5. Despite the ongoing decline in the white share of the population, educational upgrading has been strong enough for white college graduates to actually increase their share of EVs over time. In 1974, just 13 percent of EVs were college-educated whites. Today, that figure has risen to 23 percent.

6. In 1974, 70 percent of EVs were married and 30 percent were unmarried. Of the unmarried, 18 percent were women and 12 percent were men. Today, unmarried EVs are now nearly as large a group as married EVs—48 percent vs. 52 percent—with unmarried women up 8 points to 26 percent and unmarried men up 10 points to 22 percent.

7. Over the long term, public policy must adjust to the needs of a quite different America. Diversity is spreading everywhere: into new generations, into every age group—even seniors—and into every corner of the country—including such unlikely states as Oklahoma, Kansas, and Utah. Policy, both national and state, must become increasingly diversity oriented or be deemed ineffective. There is simply no way around this.

Second, political parties must compete for the votes of a new America. Given the magnitude of the shifts described here, it is simply not viable for either major political party to cede dominance of emerging constituencies to the other side.

[muon2]

One factor that is overlooked is the integration of ethnic groups into mainstream culture. If the modern VRA/Census classifications had been done 100 years earlier, there might have been specific breakouts for Italians, Poles, and Irish. Despite language and cultural differences they integrated over a few generations. I wouldn't be surprised if in 2060 people wonder why Latinos and Asians were given special treatment in the late 20th and early 21st centuries. I suspect the history of slavery would keep awareness of the special status of blacks in the US.

[hopper]

One factor that is overlooked is the integration of ethnic groups into mainstream culture. If the modern VRA/Census classifications had been done 100 years earlier, there might have been specific breakouts for Italians, Poles, and Irish. Despite language and cultural differences they integrated over a few generations. I wouldn't be surprised if in 2060 people wonder why Latinos and Asians were given special treatment in the late 20th and early 21st centuries. I suspect the history of slavery would keep awareness of the special status of blacks in the US.

Well people might wonder in 2060 why some Latino's were given the opportunity to stay in the country given they came to the US illegally.

I'm 50/50  if Blacks will keep their "special status" as you put it. I always see them staying with the Democrat Party  though.

[muon2]

One factor that is overlooked is the integration of ethnic groups into mainstream culture. If the modern VRA/Census classifications had been done 100 years earlier, there might have been specific breakouts for Italians, Poles, and Irish. Despite language and cultural differences they integrated over a few generations. I wouldn't be surprised if in 2060 people wonder why Latinos and Asians were given special treatment in the late 20th and early 21st centuries. I suspect the history of slavery would keep awareness of the special status of blacks in the US.

Well people might wonder in 2060 why some Latino's were given the opportunity to stay in the country given they came to the US illegally.

I'm 50/50  if Blacks will keep their "special status" as you put it. I always see them staying with the Democrat Party  though.

I didn't see many in 1960 questioning the status of European immigrants (and their descendents) who didn't bother to be documented on entry to the US in the 1800's. Why should it be different when facts are shifted by 100 years?