PA-Muhlenberg College/Morning Call: Toomey up 2 on generic D

[IceSpear]

http://www.mcall.com/mc-acrobat-morning-call-poll-politics-20150219-acrobat.html

Q34: Do you feel that Pennsylvania Senator Pat Toomey deserves
to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to
be reelected?
1. Reelected ………………………………………………32%
2. Not Reelected ………………………………………….31%
3. Not Sure (VOL)………………………………………...37%

Q35: If the 2016 election for United States Senator were being
held today, do you think you would vote for Pat Toomey.
the Republican candidate, or the Democrat candidate?
1. Pat Toomey…………………………………………….32%
2. Democrat Candidate……………………………………30%
3. Depends on Candidate (VOL)………………………….21%
4. Not Sure (VOL)………………………………………...18%

Approval ratings:
Obama - 44-48
Wolf - 37-13
Toomey - 35-25
Casey - 40-22
Kane - 26-33

Hillary leads by 17-19 points in the presidential race. This is a poll among all adults, so you can tack ~5 points onto the Republicans here.

[Keystone Phil]

There are still people that approve of Kathleen Kane. Literally frightening.

And LOL @ the "all adults" sample. Good to know that +10 approval rating (Toomey) is actually much better.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

There are still people that approve of Kathleen Kane. Literally frightening.

And LOL @ the "all adults" sample. Good to know that +10 approval rating is actually much better.

25% sounds like a good approximation of very low information liberal voters who would vote for a dog as long as it was a democrat.

[The Other Castro]

There are still people that approve of Kathleen Kane. Literally frightening.

And LOL @ the "all adults" sample. Good to know that +10 approval rating is actually much better.

25% sounds like a good approximation of very low information liberal voters who would vote for a dog as long as it was a democrat.

Only if it's a yellow dog

[IceSpear]

There are still people that approve of Kathleen Kane. Literally frightening.

In a world where Michael Grimm can be re-elected in a landslide, anything's possible.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race will be the tipper point of the election.Iam glad Dems have a chance.

[pbrower2a]

Weak poll because it is of adults. Having seen polls showing approval for Senator Toomey  everywhere from 28% to 43%, and knowing that Pennsylvania is D+1... he seems a likely loser in 2016. I am not using this one in the Senators-up-for-re-election  approval thread because it is a poll of 'adults'

Republicans look to have a better chance taking a Senate seat in Colorado than defending Pat Toomey. He will need a weak opponent, a lavishly-financed campaign (the brothers Koch), and a political environment similar to 2010 or 2014 to win re-election. 

[Torie]

Weak poll because it is of adults. Having seen polls showing approval for Senator Toomey  everywhere from 28% to 43%, and knowing that Pennsylvania is D+1... he seems a likely loser in 2016. I am not using this one in the Senators-up-for-re-election  approval thread because it is a poll of 'adults'

Republicans look to have a better chance taking a Senate seat in Colorado than defending Pat Toomey. He will need a weak opponent, a lavishly-financed campaign (the brothers Koch), and a political environment similar to 2010 or 2014 to win re-election.  

Are you just trying to get a rise out of Phil?  PA in 2012 had a Dem PVI of 0.77%, while Colorado was at 0.78%. Toomey is a competent incumbent, Bennett is a competent incumbent. Yet you think the Pubs have a better chance of knocking off Bennett than holding on to Toomey.  I guess that difference of 1 basis points in PVI means a heck of a lot more than competent incumbency. Whatever.

[pbrower2a]

Weak poll because it is of adults. Having seen polls showing approval for Senator Toomey  everywhere from 28% to 43%, and knowing that Pennsylvania is D+1... he seems a likely loser in 2016. I am not using this one in the Senators-up-for-re-election  approval thread because it is a poll of 'adults'

Republicans look to have a better chance taking a Senate seat in Colorado than defending Pat Toomey. He will need a weak opponent, a lavishly-financed campaign (the brothers Koch), and a political environment similar to 2010 or 2014 to win re-election.  

Are you just trying to get a rise out of Phil?  PA in 2012 had a Dem PVI of 0.77%, while Colorado was at 0.78%. Toomey is a competent incumbent, Bennett is a competent incumbent. Yet you think the Pubs have a better chance of knocking off Bennett than holding on to Toomey.  I guess that difference of 1 basis points in PVI means a heck of a lot more than competent incumbency. Whatever.

He ain't Senator Chuck Grassley.

[DrScholl]

Toomey will have a fight. Republicans in blue states aren't going to be helped by Republicans being in the majority in the Senate.

[Vega]

Toomey will have a fight. Republicans in blue states aren't going to be helped by Republicans being in the majority in the Senate.
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It'll probably be a fight that he'll win, but it will be very competitive.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The G O P has changed the rules in terms of funding the department of homeland security and it is dividing the blue state GOP like Kirk from the red state GOP like Blunt. This race will be the tipper of the election, Dems have a chance to win OH, IL, WI, Pa and pick up MO or NH or FL in the quest for a 51-49 senate control and picking off 4-5 incumbants.

[MATTROSE94]

The G O P has changed the rules in terms of funding the department of homeland security and it is dividing the blue state GOP like Kirk from the red state GOP like Blunt. This race will be the tipper of the election, Dems have a chance to win OH, IL, WI, Pa and pick up MO or NH or FL in the quest for a 51-49 senate control and picking off 4-5 incumbants.

I do agree that Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and possibly Ohio (if Ted Strickland runs and/or if Rob Portman gets selected as the Republican VP nominee) are in play for the Democrats, whereas Nevada and Colorado are in play for the Republican. I think that Marco Rubio should be ok for now, as the Florida Democrats don't have a strong bench of candidates and feel that Roy Blunt is pretty safe in his re-election bid, as he is leading Jason Kander by 13 points.

[IceSpear]

Republicans look to have a better chance taking a Senate seat in Colorado than defending Pat Toomey.

I'm pretty sure people have already explained this, but for Senators who are mostly anonymous, that approval rating metric doesn't work. It might work for Senators who have very high name recognition.

[IceSpear]

Toomey ahead by two and outperforming Hillary by 20 points in a Democratic poll? Wonderful news!

This actually isn't a Democratic poll. They're a nonpartisan pollster and have a pretty good reputation. This particular poll is Democratic leaning, but that's because it's among all adults rather than RVs or LVs.

[IceSpear]

The G O P has changed the rules in terms of funding the department of homeland security and it is dividing the blue state GOP like Kirk from the red state GOP like Blunt. This race will be the tipper of the election, Dems have a chance to win OH, IL, WI, Pa and pick up MO or NH or FL in the quest for a 51-49 senate control and picking off 4-5 incumbants.

I do agree that Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and possibly Ohio (if Ted Strickland runs and/or if Rob Portman gets selected as the Republican VP nominee) are in play for the Democrats, whereas Nevada and Colorado are in play for the Republican. I think that Marco Rubio should be ok for now, as the Florida Democrats don't have a strong bench of candidates and feel that Roy Blunt is pretty safe in his re-election bid, as he is leading Jason Kander by 13 points.

Strickland is in, and it's looking more and more like Rubio won't even be the nominee. Granted, that won't necessarily be a bad thing for the Republicans considering they have a pretty deep bench in FL. As for MO, I'll believe it when I see it (from a nonpartisan poll).