CA-SEN: A GE with David Dreier(R) would be competitive

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

GE:

Harris: 47%
Dreier: 42%

Villaraigosa: 46%
Dreier: 44%

Schiff(D): 43%
Dreier: 42%

Harris: 45%
Villaraigosa: 23%

Jungle:

Harris: 34%
Dreier: 19%
Villaraigosa: 16%
Bono(R): 14%
Schiff: 4%

http://www.scribd.com/doc/255307252/California-Poll-Results

[free my dawg]

Undecideds break toward Democratic constituencies (Hispanic and Asian), and Dreier significantly overperforms among African-Americans.

Nothing to see here, move on.

[IceSpear]

Hopefully the Republicans spend lots of money here.

[Maxwell]

Somehow I think PPP is going to spoil its reputation over the coming years...

[SPC]

Somehow I think PPP is going to spoil its reputation over the coming years...

Didn't that happen in 2014?

[Maxwell]

Somehow I think PPP is going to spoil its reputation over the coming years...

Didn't that happen in 2014?

Even more so.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Hopefully the Republicans spend lots of money here.

I'm feeling a Meg Whitman-esque $100 million.

No D vs. R general election would be competitive unless the D implodes.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

IIRC, it was an open secret that Drier is gay despite having had a pretty anti-gay rights voting record.  Either way, Harris would wipe the floor with pretty much anyone the Republicans could run in this race.

[Suburbia]

I see California being Tossup. The Democratic will have a slight advantage, but it's not gonna be easy.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

IIRC, it was an open secret that Drier is gay despite having had a pretty anti-gay rights voting record.  Either way, Harris would wipe the floor with pretty much anyone the Republicans could run in this race.

He's lived with his (male) chief of staff for years, so it's a pretty safe assumption.

[Gass3268]

I see California being Tossup. The Democratic will have a slight advantage, but it's not gonna be easy.

[Suburbia]

I see California being Tossup. The Democratic will have a slight advantage, but it's not gonna be easy.

Harris vs. Dreier would be epic. That would be a tossup. Dreier is the only GOPer who can defeat Harris. Period.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

I see California being Tossup. The Democratic will have a slight advantage, but it's not gonna be easy.

Harris vs. Dreier would be epic. That would be a tossup. Dreier is the only GOPer who can defeat Harris. Period.

Might be "epic" like the Boxer vs. Fiorina race, but in the end the Democrat will trounce the Republican, just like Boxer did by ten points and one million votes against Fiorina, who was even ahead in some polls.

This race may be within ten points according to this poll, but Dreier or any other Republican doesn't stand a chance. Republicans won't spend any money here because the state is so expensive with such a small chance of victory.

[Gass3268]

I see California being Tossup. The Democratic will have a slight advantage, but it's not gonna be easy.

Harris vs. Dreier would be epic. That would be a tossup. Dreier is the only GOPer who can defeat Harris. Period.

Might be "epic" like the Boxer vs. Fiorina race, but in the end the Democrat will trounce the Republican, just like Boxer did by ten points and one million votes against Fiorina, who was even ahead in some polls.

This race may be within ten points according to this poll, but Dreier or any other Republican doesn't stand a chance. Republicans won't spend any money here because the state is so expensive with such a small chance of victory.

This, only way Republicans will win again in CA if they get the top-2 in the jungle primary.

[windjammer]

Who is Dreier?

[Miles]

^ An ex-Rep. from the northern LA region who was in Congress for 32 years. His district was split up pretty well after redistricting, so he retired in 2012.

[free my dawg]

I see California being Tossup. The Democratic will have a slight advantage, but it's not gonna be easy.

Harris vs. Dreier would be epic. That would be a tossup. Dreier is the only GOPer who can defeat Harris. Period.

Are you retarded?

[henster]

I had no clue who Dreier was and am surprised he polls so well for being just a House Rep in SoCal. He's never run for statewide so how can his name ID be that high. The poll seems off to me, it's hard to imagine many people in the state even know who he is.

[Brittain33]

Isn't Dreier rumored to be, um, Aaron Schock from a different generation?

[DrScholl]

David Dreier had his lover on the payroll just like Aaron Schock does, which doesn't exactly scream honesty.

That aside, Republicans don't have a chance at winning this seat and even if they did, Dreier would not be viable.

[pbrower2a]

California could elect an open gay or lesbian to statewide office.

A closeted homosexual with a homophobic voting record? No.

[Maxwell]

Here's an interesting strategy for Dreier - come out gay before the election, renounce his anti-gay views. I'm sure there'd be some instant backlash, sure, but that damage early means he is able to repair himself.

[Brittain33]

Here's an interesting strategy for Dreier - come out gay before the election, renounce his anti-gay views. I'm sure there'd be some instant backlash, sure, but that damage early means he is able to repair himself.

The alternative to running for Senate, for him, is a future lucrative career as a lobbyist or his current prestigious (and pretty lucrative) career at conservative think-tanks. I don't see why he'd even consider this.

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

I had no clue who Dreier was and am surprised he polls so well for being just a House Rep in SoCal. He's never run for statewide so how can his name ID be that high. The poll seems off to me, it's hard to imagine many people in the state even know who he is.

The poll is probably off for other reasons, but Dreier was on TV a lot during the Clinton/Bush 43 years. Voters over 35 would have an awareness of him.

[Torie]

Here's an interesting strategy for Dreier - come out gay before the election, renounce his anti-gay views. I'm sure there'd be some instant backlash, sure, but that damage early means he is able to repair himself.

The alternative to running for Senate, for him, is a future lucrative career as a lobbyist or his current prestigious (and pretty lucrative) career at conservative think-tanks. I don't see why he'd even consider this.

Drier cannot be totally dismissed given the jungle primary, and if the Dem implodes, and finds someone to finance him big time, and he has a burning desire to just do it, but none of that really obtains, and I tend to doubt he has the charisma to pull it off (despite him being the handsome buffed gay guy that he is), so pencil him in as like betting on a  very long shot horse at the track, that is out of the money by about 100-1, but hey, 100-1 when it comes to CA Senate races for Pubs, is pretty good! Drier does have some potential to cut into the Hispanic vote by the way. He took a lot of heat for not following the Pub line totally on issues that matter to many of them - like not just rounding them up ASAP and sending them home, if they didn't have papers.