What % of white women will Hillary get?
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  What % of white women will Hillary get?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Well?
#1
Below 40%		  
#2
40%		  
#3
41%		  
#4
42%		  
#5
43%		  
#6
44%		  
#7
45%		  
#8
46%		  
#9
47%		  
#10
48%		  
#11
49%		  
#12
50%		  
#13
Above 50%		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 66

Author Topic: What % of white women will Hillary get?  (Read 3492 times)
Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« on: February 25, 2015, 11:15:44 AM »
Gore 2000-48%
Kerry 2004-44%
Obama 2008-46%
Obama 2012-42%
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #1 on: February 25, 2015, 11:59:41 AM »
48%. Over Pence or Walker maybe 47 or 49.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #2 on: February 25, 2015, 01:01:38 PM »
Going there: 50%
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #3 on: February 25, 2015, 01:03:11 PM »
Within 2% of her overall percentage.
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PresidentTRUMP
2016election
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« Reply #4 on: February 25, 2015, 01:39:51 PM »
48% give or take, unfortunately White woman IMO won't blindly vote for her like african Americans did for Obama, I believe Obama got 98% of the african american vote.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5 on: February 25, 2015, 02:00:31 PM »
I'll say 48%.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #6 on: February 25, 2015, 02:01:13 PM »
Quote from: 2016election on February 25, 2015, 01:39:51 PM
48% give or take, unfortunately White woman IMO won't blindly vote for her like african Americans did for Obama, I believe Obama got 98% of the african american vote.

AAs voted 93-6 for Obama, but they also voted 88-11 for Kerry.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #7 on: February 25, 2015, 02:01:35 PM »
46% seems about right.  
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Stranger in a strange land
strangeland
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« Reply #8 on: February 25, 2015, 04:43:45 PM »
45%
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henster
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« Reply #9 on: February 25, 2015, 04:47:39 PM »
In the 44-47 range but I'll put it around 46. 48 seems way too generous.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #10 on: February 25, 2015, 04:48:04 PM »
44%
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Brewer
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« Reply #11 on: February 25, 2015, 05:35:16 PM »
47%
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King
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« Reply #12 on: February 25, 2015, 06:14:02 PM »
It really depends on the GOP candidate. McCaskill ran 15 points ahead of Obama among white women I believe against Akin. That's how much leeway there is when the GOP nominee blows it.
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tallguy23
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« Reply #13 on: February 25, 2015, 09:13:36 PM »
Depends on the GOP candidate, but I'll say 52%. I have a Republican aunt who said she'd vote for Hillary just because she's a woman.

It can happen people.
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solarstorm
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« Reply #14 on: February 25, 2015, 09:16:55 PM »
I'll go out on a limb and say 60%. But I could be wrong...
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Devils30
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« Reply #15 on: February 25, 2015, 09:31:11 PM »
Hillary is not losing even by repeating Obamas performance with white women.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #16 on: February 25, 2015, 10:32:27 PM »
Quote from: Polls_PuffPass on February 25, 2015, 09:15:08 PM
Quote from: tallguy23 on February 25, 2015, 09:13:36 PM
Depends on the GOP candidate, but I'll say 52%. I have a Republican aunt who said she'd vote for Hillary just because she's a woman.

It can happen people.
That would literally mean she wins about 56 percent of the popular vote and probably 40 states.

Not necessarily, depending upon possible Republican gains among white men and/or Hispanics. If Dems won 52% of white women but only 30% of white men, that would be 41-42% of the white vote overall. But yeah, that huge of a gender gap seems pretty unlikely. The R floor among white women is likely higher, and same with the D floor among white men.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #17 on: February 25, 2015, 10:45:34 PM »
Quote from: Jeg er Vilks. on February 25, 2015, 09:16:55 PM
I'll go out on a limb and say 60%. But I could be wrong...

lol, you'll be very wrong
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Sumner 1868
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« Reply #18 on: February 26, 2015, 12:41:20 AM »
Keep in mind both Mondale and McCain declined in this demographic after picking their white female running-mates.
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King
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« Reply #19 on: February 26, 2015, 12:44:46 AM »
Quote from: tara gilesbie on February 26, 2015, 12:41:20 AM
Keep in mind both Mondale and McCain declined in this demographic after picking their white female running-mates.

Ferraro and Palin were bad picks of a desperate campaign. The decline in women would have happened those years even if they had picked men.
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Xing
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« Reply #20 on: February 26, 2015, 11:52:32 AM »
I'll say 47%.
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #21 on: February 26, 2015, 02:06:57 PM »
45%. 
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #22 on: February 26, 2015, 05:32:53 PM »
I went with 44. I'd generally expect Hillary to do worse than Obama, since incumbent Presidents have campaign advantages, and he is a better political candidate, but this is a subgroup that would probably like a little bit more than they liked Obama.
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #23 on: February 26, 2015, 06:47:18 PM »
Quote from: 2016election on February 25, 2015, 01:39:51 PM
48% give or take, unfortunately White woman IMO won't blindly vote for her like african Americans did for Obama, I believe Obama got 98% of the african american vote.

Attitudes like this are why the GOP wins as little of the black vote as they do.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #24 on: February 26, 2015, 10:03:29 PM »
Quote from: tara gilesbie on February 26, 2015, 12:41:20 AM
Keep in mind both Mondale and McCain declined in this demographic after picking their white female running-mates.
How much of that was due to other factors?

The 2008 results would have been different without the financial collapse.

1984 might have been different if Reagan had been as sluggish in the second debate as he was in the first.

By different, I don't mean that there'd be a guarantee of a new winner. But the loser might have reduced the margin.
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