What % of white women will Hillary get?

[solarstorm]

I'll go out on a limb and say 60%. But I could be wrong...

lol, you'll be very wrong

I remember a poll on CNN back in 2008 which said that 67% of the female electorate (of all races) would vote for Clinton in the general, as opposed to 50% for Obama. (I don't know the exact numbers anymore.)
She would indeed do extremely well among female black and Hispanic voters, but that these two groups are relatively small within the whole electorate.

[Beet]

Why speculate? We have cross tabs. As of today, Hillary is at 49% of all women vs. Walker, vs. 48% among men. And she's at 41% among whites, no better than Obama. Of course, those numbers would be higher if undecideds were either pushed or excluded, but so far there's no evidence that white women will vote for Hillary just because she's a white woman. Geraldine Ferraro and Sarah Palin would probably agree.

On the other hand, she's at 70% (!) among 18-29 year olds.

[jeron]

In the 2006 senate race 69% of white women voted for Clinton. Obama received 57% of the white female vote in New York two years later.

[Alcon]

Why speculate? We have cross tabs. As of today...

Not to point out the obvious, but because the cross tabs are as of today, and the election is as of over 20 months from now.

[Beet]

Why speculate? We have cross tabs. As of today...

Not to point out the obvious, but because the cross tabs are as of today, and the election is as of over 20 months from now.

Sure, but if you want to predict something in the future, starting with where it is today is better than starting from nothing. After all, most people are unconsciously starting with the results of past elections, which are even further from the election and feature different candidates to boot.

[Mister Mets]

In the 2006 senate race 69% of white women voted for Clinton. Obama received 57% of the white female vote in New York two years later.

Hillary was an incumbent running against an obscure mayor.

Obama was in an open election against a famous Senator, so there are other factors.

[IceSpear]

Why speculate? We have cross tabs. As of today, Hillary is at 49% of all women vs. Walker, vs. 48% among men. And she's at 41% among whites, no better than Obama. Of course, those numbers would be higher if undecideds were either pushed or excluded, but so far there's no evidence that white women will vote for Hillary just because she's a white woman. Geraldine Ferraro and Sarah Palin would probably agree.

On the other hand, she's at 70% (!) among 18-29 year olds.

Actually, Obama got 39% of the white vote. Getting 41% would pretty much ensure a Democratic victory, regardless of what happened with AA turnout or the Hispanic vote.

[jeron]

In the 2006 senate race 69% of white women voted for Clinton. Obama received 57% of the white female vote in New York two years later.

Hillary was an incumbent running against an obscure mayor.

Obama was in an open election against a famous Senator, so there are other factors.

Clinton got 67% overall and Obama 63%. So, Clinton actually overperformed among white women in New York. What you claim is that Hillary will do worse among white women than Obama did in 2008 and only a bit better than Obama did in 2012. What is that based on?