MT-Sen: Montana Auditor John Morrison Runs for US Senate

[nick]

From the AP:

HELENA -- Democratic State Auditor John Morrison, a former Helena attorney who has spearheaded efforts to make health insurance more affordable for Montanans, announced Monday his bid for U.S. Senate against Republican incumbent Sen. Conrad Burns.

News of the campaign was not unexpected. Morrison, 43, was considered a likely challenger to Burns and had been soliciting donations in recent weeks on a Web site offering information on how to contact his campaign.

"As a Montanan, I'm very concerned about the way things are going in Washington, D.C.," Morrison said in a written statement. "And so I've been talking with lots of my fellow Montanans about a bid for the United States Senate in 2006, and have begun laying the groundwork for a Senate campaign."

Commentary From The Swing State Project:

"Senator Conrad Burns is heading to the slaughter house come November 2006 and whoever wins the Democratic primary will need to find a place to live in D.C.

Burns is running for his fourth term, after breaking his oath to serve only two. Burns has a 36% re-elect number, is up-to-his hat in a corruption scandal, and has a voting record that shows complete disdain for the interests of Montana families. If the feds don't send Burns to jail, the Montana voters will send him packing."

[ian]

How much of a chance does this guy have?

[nick]

How much of a chance does this guy have?

Im not sure to be honest, but any Democrat has a chance.  Burns' re-elect numbers are dropping like a brick and he is knee-deep in scandal.

[TheresNoMoney]

Any word on whether Jon Tester will run?

[Joe Republic]

What's the Swing State project?  Is it partisan?

And I wonder if Burns will even bother to run for re-election if his numbers are that low.  Damn, the Republicans are having a hard time in Montana right now.

[A18]

How much of a chance does this guy have?

Im not sure to be honest, but any Democrat has a chance.  Burns' re-elect numbers are dropping like a brick and he is knee-deep in scandal.

The Democrats sure are dominating the local GOP in a state that went 60% for Bush! I think if they win this seat in '06, they'll have full control of the state, correct?

Although their legislature majorities are slim, or at least, one of them is.

[nick]

The Democrats sure are dominating the local GOP in a state that went 60% for Bush! I think if they win this seat in '06, they'll have full control of the state, correct?

Although their legislature majorities are slim, or at least, one of them is.

Correct.  Montana confuses the hell out of me.  Democrats are beginning to take over at the State level, but they refuse to vote for a Democrat in a Presidential election.

[A18]

Actually, I just checked, and the congressional delegation is still Republican (yes, all one of them).

I wonder if Federal Rep. Denny Rehberg could save this seat for the Republicans.

[nick]

What's the Swing State project?  Is it partisan?

And I wonder if Burns will even bother to run for re-election if his numbers are that low.  Damn, the Republicans are having a hard time in Montana right now.

Yes, the Swing State Project is partisan.  But its still a good place to get info and news regarding 2005, 2006, and 2008.  They post facts, but the commentary to go along with the facts defintiley has a Democratic bias.

I've heard some talk of Burns not running for re-election...  If his approval ratings and re-elect numbers completley bottom out, I could def. see him deciding against another run.

[nick]

Actually, I just checked, and the congressional delegation is still Republican (yes, all one of them).

I wonder if Federal Rep. Denny Rehberg could save this seat for the Republicans.

I really dont know much about him.  Still, if Burns decides not to run, Rehberg would probably be the favorite to win this seat. 

Rehberg won re-election...

in 2004 w/ 64%
in 2002 w/ 64%

[Frodo]

From the AP:

HELENA -- Democratic State Auditor John Morrison, a former Helena attorney who has spearheaded efforts to make health insurance more affordable for Montanans, announced Monday his bid for U.S. Senate against Republican incumbent Sen. Conrad Burns.

News of the campaign was not unexpected. Morrison, 43, was considered a likely challenger to Burns and had been soliciting donations in recent weeks on a Web site offering information on how to contact his campaign.

"As a Montanan, I'm very concerned about the way things are going in Washington, D.C.," Morrison said in a written statement. "And so I've been talking with lots of my fellow Montanans about a bid for the United States Senate in 2006, and have begun laying the groundwork for a Senate campaign."

Commentary From The Swing State Project:

"Senator Conrad Burns is heading to the slaughter house come November 2006 and whoever wins the Democratic primary will need to find a place to live in D.C.

Burns is running for his fourth term, after breaking his oath to serve only two. Burns has a 36% re-elect number, is up-to-his hat in a corruption scandal, and has a voting record that shows complete disdain for the interests of Montana families. If the feds don't send Burns to jail, the Montana voters will send him packing."

while all this is good and welcome news, where exactly did they get this figure of 36%?  i am as partisan a Democrat as they come, but i want to have a more mainstream source for such figures than the Swing State Project, for i most certainly could not find it in the article that that site linked to. 

[nick]

while all this is good and welcome news, where exactly did they get this figure of 36%?  i am as partisan a Democrat as they come, but i want to have a more mainstream source for such figures than the Swing State Project, for i most certainly could not find it in the article that that site linked to. 

The 36% comes from a DSCC poll conducted about a month or so ago.  I posted the poll a while back.  Do a search, it will come up.

[A18]

Maybe the Democrats in the Montana legislature will enact a CD split for 2008 so they can at least get some electors.

[Joe Republic]

Maybe the Democrats in the Montana legislature will enact a CD split for 2008 so they can at least get some electors.

A grand total of 1 extra elector if they're lucky.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Maybe the Democrats in the Montana legislature will enact a CD split for 2008 so they can at least get some electors.

A grand total of 1 extra elector if they're lucky.

Is MT gaining in 2008, then? Otherwise it's all or nothing, since they have only 3.

[Joe Republic]

Is MT gaining in 2008, then? Otherwise it's all or nothing, since they have only 3.

I was basing that on the proposed system that Colorado tried to bring in.  Using the same system, 3 votes would probably be split 2-1.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Is MT gaining in 2008, then? Otherwise it's all or nothing, since they have only 3.

I was basing that on the proposed system that Colorado tried to bring in.  Using the same system, 3 votes would probably be split 2-1.

Ah, I see. But if they did the congressional split thing, which I assume Philip was implying, nothing would change.

[A18]

I didn't imply it, I said it.

Maybe the Democrats in the Montana legislature will enact a CD split

[Grad Students are the Worst]

I didn't imply it, I said it.

Maybe the Democrats in the Montana legislature will enact a CD split

Well, in that case, I imply that I stand corrected.

[bgwah]

It's not TOO surprising that the Democrats are winning in Montana. It's sort of like the South--Montanan Democrats aren't exactly like John Kerry!

Although it would appear they stole one seat in the state legislature, they certainly have been doing very well there...I'll be going to Montana this summer.

[No more McShame]

it's a beautiful state, hae a good time

[Senator X]

In my opinion, (i'm no expert on that region, being from Ohio, espicaly Motana*.  I think Jon Tester is the best candidate. 


*Sate level Dem., Pres., Rep.

[Joe Republic]

In my opinion, (i'm no expert on that region, being from Ohio, espicaly Motana*.  I think Jon Tester is the best candidate. 


*Sate level Dem., Pres., Rep.

You're from Ohio?  Whereabouts?

[Senator X]

12th district (columbus)

[Joe Republic]

12th district (columbus)

I'm in CD3, near Dayton.