The Rise of the Grinch

[Maxwell]

Vice President Al Gore resigns

August 10th, 1997 - After five years as Vice President, Al Gore resigns the office of Vice President, citing the ethical nature of the Clinton administration, and feeling notable discomfort with the Monica Lewinsky affair. Gore had encouraged the President in private to resign, and in return, Clinton iced him from the White House inner circle. This resignation puts increasing pressure on Clinton to resign.

Clinton had no major plans for a replacement, and Gore's resignation caught him somewhat off guard. The only person who wasn't caught off guard was the speaker, Newt Gingrich, whose sneaky spies kept on the Clinton people. Newt Gingrich had his sights on one job and one job only now... the Presidency.


"The man was tenacious, scheming, and some would say evil. I'm not sure I'd disagree with them" - Former President Bill Clinton, How America Changed in the 21st Century

"A mind beyond his generation, this man would change America" - Senator Pat Toomey

"What a jackass, and I'm not talking about the Democrat" - Former Senator Bob Dole

[OnlyAlb]

Interesting. I'm assuming the Scandal is even worse, is Lewinsky pregnant?

[Maxwell]

Interesting. I'm assuming the Scandal is even worse, is Lewinsky pregnant?

I will reveal this when i get to it, but yes, the scandal is worse.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Go on...

[Maxwell]

More women come out of the woodwork, accuse the President of sexual harassment

Weeks and weeks of hearings and arrests over White watergate, but Bill nevertheless remained untouched. However, on November of 1997, more women came out to talk of Bill not only having sex with them in the oval office, but of sexually harassing them and even quid pro quo. One woman, Nancy Meyers, told reporters that Bill Clinton had offered her a pay raise in exchange for a "a night away". The Republicans had found their silver bullet.

In the press conference that day, a weary Bill, with a weary and angry Hillary, denied the quid pro quo, but acknowledged the other women, apologizing to his wife and apologizing to the country for his misconduct. He urged reporters and Congress to "dread carefully on these accusations" but promised more transparency in the process.

The press conference was a mistake, with Newt Gingrich taking a lead charge against Clinton. He readied his cavalry and charged at the President with full force. Day after Day, "the illegality of this President continues to rise, his constant dishonesty and changing of the story is impeding on our ability to govern, he must resign" went the talking points. Newt's own words were particularly fierce "The President's actions give the nation an example of moral decay. The longer he stays in office, the longer our children are susceptible to the idea that it is okay to be duplicitous, adulterous, and scummy. I call on this President to resign today, or impeachment proceedings will go through".

The night of the announcement, the Clinton people gathered, Bill, bruised after a shouting match with his wife Hillary, and tried to strategize a way out. Most advisers told Bill he had no way out, and must resign for the sake of the country. Others, however, had more partisan motives. Seeing Newt Gingrich as the Speaker of the House and no Vice President in charge, that means Newt would rise to the Presidency and become the leader of the country. While some in the room thought Newt would do his own damage, this adviser knew the Speaker better as a power hungry madman. Instead of resigning right away, they said, they would dig dirt on the man who turned the Clinton affair into the Clinton criminal trial.


"We had to find a way to weaken him before he made it to the White House" - James Carville

"At that point, he was toast, but he still had the Presidency for a months, so it was go out with vengence or go out with his tail between his legs" - Former Senator Bob Dole

"He was in more trouble than a ham sandwich in a mouth, *mmm mmm mmm*" - Some man on the street from that period of time.

[Maxwell]

The Impeachment Conversation

By January of 1998, Congress overwhelmingly voted to begin impeachment proceedings on President Clinton. While impeachment proceedings are approved of by the American people (according to polls), it is not approved of by an overwhelming enough margin to actually indict the President. This number has kept enough Democrats on the firing line for Clinton's defense. The claims of sexual harassment on Nancy Meyers are continually rejected, and she is now one of the first witnesses in the Clinton trials.

As Clinton walks down the halls of Congress, he feels even less respect than he was originally given beforehand. As he strolls into the bathroom, he notices a Republican Congressman, one who is a tool of Gingrich, and pins him against the wall.

"You know she's lying" he says, with a fiendish bit of ribs on his breath, "she's a prop like you."

Congressman Saxby Chambliss, a 1994 congressman, didn't exactly know how to handle a President badgering him in this manner, but he attempted to escape Clinton's hold with a "Please Mr. President, you're embarassing yourself"

Chambliss, however, was in the Gingrich inner circle and knew Nancy Meyers was a prop. Clinton had flirted with her, sure, but she was a born liar, and Gingrich knew how to use the tools set out for him. Nevertheless, Chambliss tried to keep his cool.

"You guys are animals" Clinton said in a rage, "Everyone on the hill knows this woman is a talker. I regret saying a word to her, but you guys have seen it - she'll do anything for power. Newt even slept with her for christ sakes! But you, a goon, let the man in charge sick her on me like a pitbull. The Press is eating it up and I want this whole thing ended."

Chambliss smirked, "Mr. Clinton, I don't have time for your paranoia. Remember the last time paranoia caught a President of the United States."

"You're all sons of bitches. If I make it out of this I will make it my career to make sure all of your scheming and lies are brought to light."

"Threats are threats Mr. President, I faced a lot of them in Georgia politics, If I'm not scared of a farmin' man with a pitchfork, I'm not afraid of a prep school boy who begged his way to the Presidency."

Yet somehow Clinton's LBJ-ness struck Chambliss. He could've told the press this ordeal, hell, it would've been front page news, but Chambliss knew something dark was in Clinton's heart at that moment. He went back to the House chambers to discuss a bill, a not very meaningful adjustment to the farm bill sure to get rejected, and Clinton headed back to the White House, without friends, without a Vice President.

[Maxwell]

Baucus to switch parties

As of March of 1998, Democrats trail Republicans by 15 points in general House polls, Bill Clinton registers a 22% approval rating (8% amongst women), and recently elected Montana Senator Max Baucus, recently re-elected in 1996, switches political parties over the Clinton indiscretions with the promise of a great committee spots. The results of poll after poll has what's left of Democratic leadership cautious. Due to Baucus' lack of likeihood to survive a Republican primary, Democrat Senators would walk up to Baucus and whisper in his ear "lunch meat" whenever he would be in their general vicinity.

Tom Daschle knows what is going to happen if Clinton doesn't resign. On March 17th, Daschle met with President Clinton to discuss his path forward. Clinton attempted to back away from the criticism and tried to persuade Daschle that Meyers was a ploy, but Daschle would not take it. "Even if she was, Mr. President, you look paranoid saying it. We need you to resign so that we can survive 1998 as a compact party."

Clinton continued to fight, "If Gingrich rises we will see the most insane agenda America has ever witnessed."

"Even so, can't be more insane than what a super-majority of cannibalistic Republicans have to offer. We have to think long term here Mr. President."

Clinton was upset, but began to see what he must do. He dismissed Daschle from his office, and prepared a press conference. But first he had to make one call to a "friend" of his.

[Maxwell]

The Call

President Clinton, out of options and out of luck, attempts to get one last fight fought in his Presidency with a call to Speaker Gingrich. Gingrich, sitting in his office, felt somewhat expectant of the call. When his phone rang, a certain eagerness beset Gingrich. This was a mistake.

"Ah yes, Mr. President, I've been expecting." said Newt, with a wide grin across his face.

"Hey Newt, I wanted to let you know that I will be resigning tomorrow, and will need you to be at the resignation to make sure people know what's changing."

"I'm fine with that."

"And while we're here, let's cut the bull Mr. Speaker. I know about you and Meyers, and I know about all the fake stories you've thrown around in the press. I don't care that I will no longer be President, I will find the truth, I will torment you, I will destroy you."

"Empty threats Mr President. You're the one leaving the hot seat, I've been in the hot seat for a while."

"If you think being Speaker of the House is anything comparable to being President, you're a ing moron. They'll eat you alive, just like me. And if you think Democrats aren't willing to pull the same sh**t on you, you're wrong."

"Oh, I know they won't, William, why do you think I'm going to be President?"

"Burn in hell, Grinchy"

*The President abruptly hangs up*


March 22nd, 1998 -

42nd President of the United States - Bill Clinton (D), January 1993 - March 1998
43rd President of the United States - Newt Gingrich (R), March 1998 -

The fateful day finally arrives. A calm William J. Clinton addresses the press. Many expected emotional outburst, but Clinton almost felt relief that day. He encouraged the country remain strong in trying times, and for Republicans and Democrats to work together to make the country better. He mentioned precious little of his successor, and even give a slight knock on the Speaker with his last words "So here's a man who needs no introduction". As Gingrich walked to the podium, Clinton whispered in his ear "eat sh*t". Gingrich replied "gladly".

Gingrich wasted no time. After his swift inauguration, he promised the country massive tax reform, reform of government ethics, term limits, and a full push of whatever was left of the Contract with America. In his speech, he mentioned the cliches "hitting the ground running" and "holding feet to the fire". When asked in a press conference who his choice of Vice President would be, the new President announced he did not have a decision yet, but would be around soon.

Democrats were as ready for President Gingrich as Republicans were, knowing what the Former Speaker was capable of in terms of disaster. It was only a matter of time...

[Maxwell]

A Rough Beginning



46th Vice President - Max Baucus (R-MT), August 1998 -

As of September, instability in the White House caused a modest rise in unemployment. Newt's attempts at stability did not work very well - his first choice for Vice President, Senator Phil Gramm, faced universal opposition from Democrats, and was forced to remove himself from contention after he bombed his hearing. In addition, Gingrich faced momentous opposition on major appointees, with several moderate Republicans working with Democrats to oppose Gingrich. These failures forced Gingrich to the center, and to replace Phil Gramm, Gingrich picked party switcher Max Baucus who, while he faced vicious opposition from many Democrats, had broad support among Republicans and a few moderate Democrats.

Gingrich had some level of political capital to spend, but not much after his tarnished reputation after the Government shutdown of 1996. His first initiative was broadbase tax reform, including a cut of the corporate tax rate down to a top rate of 25% and income taxes to 35%. This gained little attention because this tax reform had broadbase support in congress, and passed rather easily in the House. Many Senators, however, viewed it as moving the goal posts after the Clinton hikes, and debate has stalled there for a while.

Meanwhile, Republicans worried about Gingrich's own re-election prospects. The President's approval rating, a weak 38% after a string of mishaps, had him vulnerable as the nominee. Democrats had erased the 15 point gap for the most part and fell within the margin of error. While Gingrich planned to run, Republican leadership began to feel as if Gingrich running would doom their chances of holding the office. Leadership Republicans, especially Speaker Bill Paxon, began to push the idea of Governor George W. Bush for President, reaching back in the sands of history, while the Republican's remaining moderate wing seemed to favor Arizona Senator John McCain over the President. While Gingrich leads both of them, he doesn't lead them convincingly, leaving many to think Gingrich can be toppled.

But Gingrich planned to stay in office, no matter what it takes.

[NeverAgain]

So no surplus in '99, and '00? That could give a whoever will run *cough*(Dashle), a push up in the polls.

[Maxwell]

So no surplus in '99, and '00? That could give a whoever will run *cough*(Dashle), a push up in the polls.

I'm not at 1999 quite yet. There will be a small deficit due to some political uncertainty thanks to President Clinton's resignation and Gingrich's early fumbling.

[Maxwell]

October Surprise - Meyers flubs interview, then comes clean

October 10th, 1998 - Until this point, despite massive Democratic gains, Republicans still held an advantage. However, a week earlier, Nancy Meyers scheduled an interview with Dan Rather. Rather, feeling on point today, grilled Meyers, who came off as if she was fabricating her story. The Press latched on to the interview, and suddenly, Meyers concluded that she must be honest, and chose to reveal the narrow truth - that she lied about being sexual harassed by President Clinton.

This revelation led to the question - why did she choose to accuse the Former President of anything in the first place. Clinton, feeling vindicated, took something of a victory lap, and promised an upcoming book on his vision of America (no doubt, preparing to be a kingmaker in the 2000 Presidential election). Republicans took a big hit, with many feeling as if they witch hunted President Clinton for no reason. President Gingrich, opting to led this narrow version of the truth stand, apologized publicly to the Former President. Conservatives were furious at Gingrich for this public display, and some even actively petitioned a primary of a far right conservative to challenge the incumbent.

Gingrich, meanwhile, finally managed to pass some minor fiscal reforms and get all of his appointments through, but his big piece of tax reform was continually stalled and his attempts at ethics reform was marked with his own hypocrisy on the matter. His approvals took a slight dive and now laid at 34%, below the favorables of his own party. Party Leaders were going to ask Gingrich not to run, but wanted to wait until the midterms almost definitely hit their advantage in the House.

This were going to be glum results for the President.

[The Other Castro]

How can Clinton run again? He was already elected to two terms.

[Maxwell]

How can Clinton run again? He was already elected to two terms.

Oh. DUH. Thanks.

[Maxwell]

Early November 1998 - The Republican Party, in something of a major upset, faced losses in the 1998 midterm elections. While Democrats seemingly underperformed the midterms, they faced a weak public approval after the Clinton resignation, and in an election with little voter enthusiasm, the Democrats benefited from the Republican Party being in charge. They picked up seats, but failed to overcome the Republican majority, which still numbered at 53-47 (Max Baucus' successor is Denny Rehberg, who will face election when Baucus would've - in 2002).

Republicans suffered from a couple of symtoms - weak recruits, low voter enthusiasm, and Senators failing to protect their own. Senator Al D'amato was the biggest case of this, with the Party operation giving up on him all together (He lost 59-41 to Chuck Schumer). Larry Faircloth, expected to win walking, lost 53-45 to John Edwards, a rising star in the Democratic Party, and the Republicans let off the hook controversial Senator Carol Moseley Braun, who relatively easily dispatched Michael Patrick Flanagan. Even the formerly safe Kit Bond almost lost his seat to Attorney General Jay Nixon, who appealed to some of Bond's conservative base.

In a major surprise, Democrats picked up the House of Representatives from the Republicans, picking up the exact 12 seats they needed to be the leading party. Republican Speaker Bill Paxon, viewed as generally incompetent and foolish, planned to resign on December because of that marked change, and the Democrats were going full hard to elect Dick Gephardt Speaker of the House. However, rumors are floating that Gephardt may run for President, and as a result, may drop out of contention for House Speaker.

The White House felt the blow of the results as hard as anyone, with calls to not run for re-election growing. President Gingrich, sitting with a split congress, would be forced to concede some of his larger goals.

However, this would be just a setback in the grand scope of things.

Illinois Senate Election
Senator Carol Moseley Braun (D) - 52.9%
Former Congressman Michael Patrick Flanagan (R) - 44.3%

Kentucky Senate Election
Congressman Scotty Baesler (D) - 50.1%
Congressman Jim Bunning (R) - 48.1%

Georgia Senate Election
Former Senator Wyche Fowler (D) - 50.3%
Senator Paul Coverdell (R) - 47.2%

Missouri Senate Election
Senator Kit Bond (R) - 49.2%
Attorney General Jay Nixon (D) - 48.3%

[Maxwell]

Presidential Consideration Begins, who will run?

The Presidential election begins as soon as the 1998 midterms end. Due to President Gingrich's weak approval ratings, Americans on both sides of the aisles are looking for new leadership. Potential candidates for President are ranked based on their likely hood to run and win. Here is the list -

Democrats

Gallup (Dec. 1998)
38% Al Gore
18% Dick Gephardt
12% Paul Wellstone
6% John Edwards
6% Bill Bradley
4% Carol Mosely Braun
2% Howard Dean

Former Vice President Al Gore - Though he faces some agitation from fellow Democrats for his abandoning of the office of Vice President, Gore remains a popular figure among both parties. Polls show he leads in a Democratic primary by 20 points and leads President Gingrich by 15. Gore's negatives, however, are his dull speaking style, his weak favorables compared to other potential Democratic candidates within his own party, and his previous record as a Moderate Democrat (which harms him for base turnout). Gore is considered probably the most likely person to win the Presidency at this point, but he just has to keep it together for as long as possible.

Speaker-elect Dick Gephardt - a multiple time candidate, Gephardt knows the ropes of a Presidential campaign, and has stronger support among party rank and file than Gore, who is on the outskirts of the party administration. Gephardt has plenty of strengths - one being his connection to party leadership, but also his close connection to the state of Iowa, a very important one if he wants to win the Presidency. The biggest negative, besides his trailing Gore, is the fact that nobody in the Democratic Party is very inspired to elect Gephardt. Though many acknowledge a certain competence he possesses, he would not be a strong general election candidate in terms of reaching independents.

Senator-elect John Edwards - Despite just being elected, some in the party are already hyping Senator-elect John Edwards as the next best thing out of the party. Young, moderate, and capable of holding on to the Democratic base, Edwards has a lot of strengths. His rhetorical ability is strong, and he's able to hold an audience. His problems? Lack of experience, a closer connection to embattled Former President Bill Clinton, and a perceived lack of substance.

Senator Bill Bradley - Senator of New Jersey, Former Basketball Player, Bradley is probably the most progressive candidate that is electable (though noted changes of Gore's ideology put that in question). Bradley's resume is strong, but his campaigning has so far been not as good, and Bradley's name recognition isn't as good as it should be. If he gets the nomination, it would be as a dark horse surprise.

Senator Carol Mosely Braun - empowered by her large upset win, Braun has been openly talking up a Presidential campaign. She would do well with the growing base of African Americans in the party, but beyond that she's widely known as a corrupt political officer and too firey for a general election base. She's the only candidate to actually trail President Gingrich. Braun is the most likely to run, and probably the least likely to win.

Senator Paul Wellstone - Senator Wellstone has played down any Presidential speculation, but the liberal firebrand could be a hit if he decided to run. A former college professor who won in an upset in Minnesota by defeating an incumbent, Wellstone has shown he has the skills to win, the question is the will. There is also a question of if he is too left for the American electorate, which can only be answered if he actually runs.

Governor Howard Dean - Something of an odd bird, Howard Dean is a self-proclaimed liberal with a record of compromise and moderate solutions. He's also someone who calls for fiscal restraint, and sometimes in ways that the Democrats in general aren't too big fans of. Still, as potent as Howard Dean is at points, he's considered too odd and also too unknown to be a serious Presidential contender.

Republicans

Gallup w/o Bush (Dec. 1998)
40% Elizabeth Dole
32% Newt Gingrich
7% John McCain
4% Dan Quayle
3% Alan Keyes
1% John Kasich

Gallup w/Bush (Dec. 1998)
36% George W. Bush
24% Newt Gingrich
19% Elizabeth Dole
5% John McCain
3% Dan Quayle
2% Alan Keyes
0% John Kasich

Former Labor Secretary Elizabeth Dole - With George W. Bush continual denial of a Presidential campaign, the person with the second most attention from Republican leadership is not the incumbent President, but Liz Dole! Dole, for the most part, has done a great job cobbling up support and interest from Republican Leadership. She has residual name recognition from her husband and a strong donor base. Her problems? She's never run a campaign before, much less a Presidential one, and her stance on the issues is not widely known in the public sphere. Still, most Republicans view her as their most electable option without sacrificing their ideas.

President Newt Gingrich - The incumbent President, his few months in office have been difficult. Gingrich has had strained relations with fellow Republicans, got caught in an ethics scandal, and had his big tax plan watered down after a brutal midterms that was expected to go the other way. Still, Gingrich has some advantages - residual good will from some conservatives, strongly held positions on a lot of issues, a strategic mind, and a debaters spirit. Underestimating the President would be a fool's gambit, even if things seem dark at this point.

Senator John McCain - With a good life story, McCain flies into third in Republican Party contention. The Senator from Arizona, on a lot of issues, is a rank and file Republican, but has earned a reputation as a maverick with his fight for campaign finance reform and his stance against pork barrel spending. McCain is known for his straightforwardness, and lot of people think he would do well in states like New Hampshire where his kind of spirit would be appreciated. His negatives? Conservatives want him beat, his fundraising for his Senate campaigns have been less than promising, and despite announcing an exploratory committee, his organization is still fledgling at best.

Former Vice President Dan Quayle - LOL. Despite his high ranking and loads of experience, Dan Quayle's numbers are trash, and he's considered DOA if he runs. Quayle has been showing interest, but no one else seems to care.

Governor George W. Bush - Despite a continual lack of interest, pollsters still show W with a 2-1 lead over President Gingrich in a head-to-head match up and a strong double digit lead over a more crowded field. Bush has a strong record in Texas, and has a compassionate side that Republicans may need to win. Still, he's considered so unlikely to run that people who are really paying attention to the race don't put him on the list, but the fact he does so well in polls keeps contention up.

Former Ambassador Alan Keyes - LOL. Keyes already announced his candidacy. Keyes is something of a perennial arch-conservative. Nobody in their right minds has Keyes at anything but a 0.01% chance of winning (in case everyone but him blows up in the debate hall).

Congressman John Kasich - An interest case where a potential rising star in the party could wreck it by going too early with their ambitions. Kasich, known by almost no one, has been an up and comer in the Republican caucus. He's strong on policy and is known as something of a wunderkind. However, he has even less chance than Keyes because he has no money, he has little experience, and his endorsement of gun control has the NRA out to get him if he runs. Kasich has shown a lot of interest, but the fact an organization with far more money than him plans to keep him out of the race is not good for his chances.

[Maxwell]

State of the Union - America More Prosperous than Ever

Good economic news hit the country in the months after the 1998 elections. After a slight dip during most of 1998, Unemployment took a big hit. While the 1999 budget projected a slight deficit, analysts already say that growth at these levels will allow for a surplus for the first time in decades. The news gave the President a slight bump in the polls ahead of his State of the Union address.

In his State of the Union, the President attempted to take credit for this growth. His speech was optimistic for the future, and he unveiled an agenda for the future. He promoted a massive reform of eduction, a market reform of healthcare, and re-invigorated space program. The public viewed the speech as wildly ambitious, but questioned the President's ability to do anything to promote it - most viewed him as a lame duck leader who would lose the primary to Elizabeth Dole or George W. Bush.

However, methodically, Gingrich was planning. When Gingrich appointed Baucus to Vice President, he planned to ice him as soon as possible. Baucus, however, proved his worth early on. When tax reform was on the verge of failing, Baucus moved in the Senate and used his magic to make it pass. When Gingrich met with him, Baucus made a proposition - to stay on the ticket. Gingrich originally laughed at the idea. Baucus, however, laid on the President's desk something about Governor George W. Bush that would sink his candidacy before it began. Gingrich, in shock and awe, looked at it with dismay. It was proof of cocaine use and a record of a DUI.

"How... How did you get this?"

Max Baucus had a simple reply - "No questions. Just answers."

The two formed a strong unity from that point on.

[Maxwell]

Gephardt and Dole in, Bush on the sidelines

In the following months of February, March, and April, Gingrich battled the perception that he was already giving up. In March, sided by House Minority Leader Denny Hastert, Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott, and her husband, Former Senator Bob Dole, Elizabeth Dole announced her candidacy for President. She cited the recent ethics failures and losses in the midterms as reasons why Gingrich would be unelectable, but remained rather vague on her own policy ideals choosing to mostly meander about America's "bright future". Nevertheless she gained a strong footing in the polls, continuing to lead the incumbent by strong single digits.

Still, Republican money bundlers were hoping for someone who could change the electoral map altogether. George W. Bush, someone with an incredible campaign apparatus and a compassionate message, has been seen as the next great Republican hope. But Bush knows something those don't - his past. While Bush doesn't know about the documents that were leaked to Vice President Max Baucus, Bush is aware of the potential damage it could do, and the stronger risk of facing an incumbent President rather than just running in the year 2004 with no damage.

But the most recent news was in April, when Speaker of the House Dick Gephardt, running high on the new Democratic House Majority, enters the race for President. Gephardt felt some flack over his decision to run so soon after gaining a new majority, but Gephardt responded that "My becoming of the Speaker of the House proves that our leadership has been strong, and it would be even stronger in the White House!". Gephardt's initial proposals have been closer to universal healthcare reform, defense of unions, and opposition to harmful trade deals. Gephardt notably took a shot at Former Vice President Al Gore when he said "As President, I will be there for people, not desert them when they need me most", and it left the impression of an already incredibly negative race between the two candidates.

President Gingrich sat on the sidelines during this time, choosing to announce later. While he received a minor rebound in approvals, Gingrich remained stuck at 41% approval, with 51% of Americans disapproving of his leadership. Those numbers aren't inherently as bad as his primary numbers have been, but it seems even his supporters, at the moment, feel wishy washy about him. Gingrich, in the coming days, took the first step to combat this. Knowing it would be a failure in congress, on April 17th, 1999, Gingrich announced a plan to push forward a group of constitutional amendments to permanently reform congress and the budget process, by forcing term limits and a balanced budget. These are two proposals conservatives have been hungering for for ages, with few Republican Presidents aggressively pushing one way or the other on them. Gingrich used his political capital, whatever tiny amount there is, to push it.

Whether this gambit will work, only time will tell.

[Maxwell]

Gore and McCain are in, Bush to stay out

Two of the biggest announcements in May were two of the most obvious - Former Vice President Al Gore and Arizona Senator John McCain announcing their candidacies for the Presidency of the United States. Al Gore, despite a decent drop in the polls due to Gephardt's announcement and sharp attacks on Gore, has remained the Democratic frontrunner, and in his announcement, took a couple of pop shots at Gephardt, calling him "a serial flip flopper", "abandoned his dream job for another dream job", and "unready to lead". The negativity of the Democratic primary is already lowering enthusiasm for the two candidates, and many say an opening a third candidate is not only possible, but actively sought.

While John Edwards was actively exploring the possibility, he remained unswayed either way. Though he was hounded by Former President Bill Clinton, he knew that it would be an uphill fight. Edwards just got elected to the Senate in 1998, sworn in on January of this year, close to unprecedented to go from that little experience to the White House. But when Clinton and Edwards met at Clinton's mansion, Clinton pressed him like none other. "You could be the next Lincoln" he said. "Gephardt and Gore can't win, they're too passive" he said. "You can remake the party" he said. All of this while subtlety demanding access. Clinton knew he was playing Edwards, Edwards, not the brightest bulb in the room, felt he really could do all of these things. But he remained concerned, confused, and even a little scared. "I'd have to talk my wife" he said, and Clinton, with his natural charm, backed off him with a smile. Somehow Clinton felt he already had done it, and it was only a matter of time.

McCain, meanwhile, said in his announcement he ran to bring substance to a substanceless primary campaign. He charged Elizabeth Dole as "expecting a coronation" when no such coronation was set. McCain trails Dole (and the non-announced Gingrich) by 20 points, but McCain insists on running a populist conservative campaign with ideas to make America better. He rolled out a healthcare plan to combines elements of right- and left-wing reforms, and education reform that not only keeps the Department of Education, but strengthens it, and a tax reform far greater than what Gingrich is proposing. McCain's strong opposition to pork barrel spending and opposition to corn subsidies make Iowa an impossibility for him, especially considering Elizabeth Dole's strong support of corn subsidies (possibly the only solid position she holds).

McCain's announcement, however, was overshadowed when, a few days later, Texas Governor George W. Bush, possibly the most hyped candidate for President, announced he would not seek the Presidency. This announcement was in no way without consideration. Bush, sitting on nearly $20 Million dollars from his gigantic win in Texas, had met with billionaires and millionaires, and had even begun setting up fundraisers. However, something continued to haunt him. Bush's past, one not too friendly, was something he felt could be an issue, and he had learned from some staffers that the Gingrich campaign not only was ready to search, but a certain member of Gingrich's clique had found something. Bush, especially against an incumbent, did not want to risk a loss. Bush chose to back out, though he did not back any of the running candidates, but made it clear "our party should look for leadership", possibly a swipe at the President.

In this month, Gingrich's ploy seemed to be working thus far. Gingrich's favorables with conservatives went up, and with liberals they went down, but he remained in charge. Newer polls showed that Dole's "not gonna touch that" approach was not impressing voters, and Gingrich began closing the gap. Still, many commentators saw through the President's ploy, and began questioning the validity of his claim that "term limits and balanced budgets will make this country great again". This opened him up to new criticism, including criticism that the President is approaching his office in a very disingenuous way.

They could only imagine how disingenuous President Gingrich really was.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hmm...so the polling right now is good for President Gingrich?

[Maxwell]

Hmm...so the polling right now is good for President Gingrich?

It's the highest since he's been inaugerated, but he still has only a 42% Approval rating and trails in the Republican Primary to Elizabeth Dole (but only 40-37 as opposed to the much larger margins he was trailing earlier due to her rather anemic roll out and his clever pitch to conservatives). I know it's confusing, but his weak primary numbers are due to midterm losses, being a interim President, and a lack of confidence in his ability to get things done after his failure to do anything big with his large margins in the Senate and the House when he had the chance.

Dole leads mostly due to incredibly high fundraising and not being Newt Gingrich (though primary voters like him, voters in the primary are 62-32 for someone who can win over someone who represents their values, which Dole has made a case for so far).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

From what I can tell, it's a good thing for the Democrats' 2000 prospects that they hold one house of Congress.  Am I correct?

[Maxwell]

From what I can tell, it's a good thing for the Democrats' 2000 prospects that they hold one house of Congress.  Am I correct?

Democrats are generally favored for the Presidency at the moment (Leading Gingrich by high single digits to low double digits and Dole by mid-single digits), partially because of that, but also because they have a fairly strong candidate in Al Gore, at least on the outset.

[Maxwell]

Bradley, Braun and Edwards in, Wellstone won't run



June Gallup Poll (Democratic Primary)
34% Al Gore
24% Dick Gephardt
9% John Edwards
9% Bill Bradley
7% Carol Moseley Braun

Edwards, something of a naive man, was quite surprised how ready his wife was for him to run for President. Elizabeth Edwards viewed Bill Clinton as something of a politics wizard, brought down by a vicious media. She viewed her husband as the perfect vehicle for pushing ruthlessly pragmatic yet liberal policies with a smile. When asked, she was very eager. Because, unannounced to Edwards, Bill Clinton had already talked to her that day. Meeting her at a bank near Edwards home in North Carolina, he laid out, step by step, the plan to make Edwards President. Elizabeth Edwards, obviously, was in. John sure was dense - he could not detect she was making a lot of the EXACT same points Bill was making. But with wifey's approval, Edwards decided he would make the announcement.

As June made its way, major decisions were made on the Democratic side. After weeks and weeks of pestering, the Senator of North Carolina John Edwards enters the race. Edwards, elected only in 1998, gave an energized beginning to his campaign, calling for bipartisanship in Washington, an end to the negative attacks between Gore and Gephardt, and a investing the narrow expected surplus on education. Edwards, though he polls about the same as the more ignored announcement of Senator Bill Bradley of New Jersey and only slightly higher than Carol Mosely Braun, Senator of Illinois who is currently being investigated for campaign finance fraud in her Senate campaign, has already gained a good deal of ground in the fundraising game, gaining the pockets of Wall Street and Teacher Unions who view him as an asset in Washington. Most of these people, unsurprisingly, have strong connections to President Clinton.

The biggest announcement of June was Paul Wellstone's refusal to run for President. Wellstone, often viewed as the candidate that can excite the base voters the most, has been largely apathetic on a run, clearly denying interest whenever asked, but continually asked nevertheless due to his strong and surprising wins in Minnesota and his nationally recognized name. Wellstone has also had a very well known disappointment with the current Presidential field, viewing Gore as a political shapeshifter and Gephardt as bland and a tool of party bigwigs. While he views Edwards as inexperienced and crooked, Wellstone could still play a largely kingmaker role in the Democratic primary.

The first Republican Debate occurred, and though Gingrich hoped to deliver a strong hit to Dole's campaign, she held her own against the Incumbent President, and even got some jabs of her own. She slammed Gingrich's constitutional amendment push, calling it vane and self-interested, and jammed his record on ethics - "he was for ethics reform before he was against it". Gingrich is largely seen as the winner of the debate, though Dole exceeded what many felt was low expectations for her since her candidacy has begun. Oh, and McCain was there too, but at a lowly 10%, McCain was asked about that much of the questions, though he got a good line in on Dole - "Elizabeth Dole has been so vague on the issues, we might as well call her the 'I'm Not Newt' Candidate."

The first Democratic Debate occurred around the same time, though with only Gore and Gephardt showing up due to timing, and that debate went about as expected. Gore attempted to stay out of the mud as long as he could, while Gephardt made no bones about the type of campaign he was going to run, which has thus far been the reason for his closing the gap. "A Vice President shouldn't abandon this country" Gephardt said at one point, "(Gore) went from the second most powerful position to influence peddling" when answering a question about campaign finance reform, "Went from resident Democrat conservative to raging liberal in a matter of a decade" he harped on at multiple points. After a while, the good natured Gore, who had remained so in public while his donors cut Gephardt in two, had to dive in the mud too, attacking the two headed nature of Gephardt's donors - "pocketing money from Wall Street while pretending to be a populist", and even called Gephardt "the most dishonest man I've ever met". Gore and Gephardt would not shake hands at the end of the debate.

The perfect opening for the surrogate candidate.

[Maxwell]

For the record, this is the most joy I've had writing a timeline!