The Rise of the Grinch

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

For the record, this is the most joy I've had writing a timeline!

You know, the train is this timeline, you are the engineer, and what's being puffed up is good entertainment.

[Maxwell]

Ames, Iowa - A Curse and a Curse

For the past two months, in multiple Republican debates, President Newt Gingrich has been using his oratory advantage to damage Former Labor Secretary Elizabeth Dole significantly. Dole, now considered her husband without policy chops, has been criticized as vapid, inarticulate, and worst of all unready for President. While her funders and ads are enough to keep her numbers decently high in the polls due to a certain weariness of President Gingrich, Gingrich is starting to look very strong at this point.

Then came the Ames Iowa Straw Poll. While Gingrich won it strongly (40%-24%), his percentage was considered unimpressive. Gingrich would've needed to win above 50% according to most pundits to symbolize wide support among the conservative base, which he clearly did not show. Former Ambassador Alan Keyes, someone who has raised about $120,000 in his campaign for President, scored nearly 20% of the Ames Iowa Straw Poll vote, gaining a solid third place over a write-in for George W. Bush at 9% and John McCain at 6%. Clearly, the President didn't have much enthusiasm on his side.

And there was a sick feeling among Camp Gingrich that things were about to get a lot worse, and a lot more... Clinton in nature. Newt had been cheating on his wife with a woman named Calista Beck for ages, but his wife only found out within the years end. When Gingrich was not managing the country and scheming, he was doing battle with his embittered wife Marianne Ginther. Gingrich had begged and pleaded to make the divorce public in 2001, after he had been elected, but Ginther had other plans. On August 22nd, the night after the Ames Iowa Straw Poll, she made it known that she was going to divorce her husband Newt. The light being brought onto Newt's marriage did immediate damage to his campaign.

Thankfully for Newt, she kept the bedroom details out for the time being, but now he no longer had control over his wife.

This did not, however, result in a large surge for Elizabeth Dole. Dole, who had fallen from mid 40s to mid-high 30s, largely stayed there. Newt took a double digit hit after speculation of his cheating on his wife, but the surge was largely in the campaigns of John McCain and Alan Keyes. McCain finally hit double digits for the first time, and so did Keyes. This might've been even better for the Dole campaign, seeing as McCain had alienated too many Republicans to win the nomination ever, and Keyes was Keyes.

Edwards - A Disappointment?

The Democrats side largely stayed the same, to the surprise of Former President Clinton. Senator John Edwards, largely touted as the man who could break in the middle, saw his numbers remain stagnant after a middling debate performance and a very mild presence in Iowa. He had taken the strategy of trying to spar with Gore and Gephardt, which caught him in the middle of an incredibly toxic battle. This was, obviously, a mistake.

Edwards had also made rookie mistakes on the campaign trail. When asked about foreign interventions, he had made his opposition to Gingrich's bombardment of Yugoslavia known, but was caught on tape supporting such bombardment back before he was a Presidential candidate. Edwards had also made the mistake of taking too brave a stand - arguing against wasteful subsidies in the middle of a group in support of those subsidies. He was booed off stage. He was both too strong and too weak at the same time.

Edwards' choice of campaign manager, Congressman David Bonior, proved to be a foul one. Bonior was a politico, and probably would be a strong asset in the Edwards cabinet, but Bonior knew nothing of Presidential campaigning and was a complete liability. Bill Clinton, saw this with a terrified look, and immediately began doing what he thought he wouldn't have to do - micromanage.

He stripped the Edwards organization to the bone, and ordered him to instill his own people into the organization. Edwards protested at first, but knowing how much he (and more importantly, his aggressive wife) wanted the White House, he allowed the bullying Former President to entirely shift the Edwards Organization. He felt uncomfortable with the changes, but these changes would cause an earthquake in the Democratic primary - and shake the narrative up for good.

[Maxwell]

The Democratic Shake-up



Post Debate Gallup Poll
28% Gore
22% Gephardt
18% Edwards
8% Bradley
5% Moseley Braun

On that September night, it seemed the debate would go the same way the other debates had: Al Gore and Dick Gephardt bombing the screen time with their toxic attacks, with Edwards, Bradley, and Moseley Braun occasionally getting taking away little bits of time to make promote their policy plans. However, this is the night John Edwards finally got his groove on:

It began with Al Gore -
"During my time in office, we have brought forward bills to allow for greater innovation in this country. We allowed for free trade, and we have seen marked success in that area. Every step of the way Dick has tried to hold back economic progress. He will tell you he is a progressive, but he is fully regressive. Dick Gephardt wants us to go back to the days before our country was a major super power. Let's not go back to that."

Then Gephardt responded -
"That is a ridicolous accusation, and is downright shameful coming from a Former Vice President of the United States. I have done more to help working people than anyone, and the fact of the matter is Mr. Gore has been perfectly willing to do whatever it takes to fatten his pockets at the expense of average americans. On trade, he benefits, on green energy, he benefits, and he does so by robbing you. Don't be fooled. Gore's vision is only Gore, not you."

"Would you like in on this Senator Edwards?" the Debate Moderator inquired.

"Yes, uh..." Edwards began. He realized the oppurtunity in front of him, and stopped.

"I had a prepared, talking points type answer to the question, but frankly, we've been dragged so far from the issue that I can barely even remember what the question was. I think Vice President Gore and Speaker Gephardt are honorable men for their service to this country, but during this campaign these two men have been acting like children. Is this what we really want in our leaders? Why are we disparaging our opponents in this fashion when our children are barely reading at grade level, when our infrastructure is crumbling, and when poverty continues to strike hungry people in our country. Ladies and gentlemen, I believe it is below the office of the Presidency to stoop this low, and I won't do it. I will only discuss the problems that face us and, to the best of my ability, give you my view on a solution. I think it's only right to quit this bickering."

Edwards performance that night received national acclaim, and he received a large boost in the polls, leading Al Gore and Dick Gephardt to wonder, is he the real thing? and how do they stop him?

[Maxwell]

The Rise and Fall of Alan Keyes

After the immediate fall out over President Gingrich's divorce, the main beneficiary was not Elizabeth Dole, who, while she was the obvious frontrunner, still faced complaints over her vagueness and her inability to connect beyond her group of establishment conservatives and moderates who fear McCain is too unknown to win the primary. Rather, it was Former UN Ambassador Alan Keyes, who had raised very little money but performed surprisingly in the Ames Iowa Straw Poll, and had since picked up major endorsements from Former Oklahoma Congressman Tom Coburn and Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum. Keyes, a conservative oddball, had made his name from his confusing logic and archconservative stands on most issues. It kept him out of the 20% range in national polls, but by October, Keyes had surged to a strong second place in the state of Iowa, key to his hopes of shaking up the establishment.

This rise, however, put a target on Keyes' back. Both the Gingrich people, who were hoping to rise again even after his potential infidelities, and the Dole people, who viewed him as an annoying stick in her side, with the potential of his win in Iowa being a disaster for her. So they followed him. They found much oddball footage, but not much that could hurt him with his strong base of voters. So the Gingrich people went on their own, and sent a plant to the Keyes townhall. The plant, knowing of Keyes penchant for long comparisons that could doom him in clips, asked him of his opinion on Labor Secretary Elizabeth Dole's plan for healthcare.

"What plan? She's whoring herself out to all of the special interest groups. What special interest groups least want is someone who can speak up for themselves. Dole has proven she can't speak up for herself. What does that make her? I'll let you decide that."

Unsurprisingly, the footage got leaked the night it happened, October 10th, 1999, and it meant a huge sink in Mr. Keyes numbers. It got worse when her husband, Former U.S. Senator Bob Dole, gave an enraged and angry response to Mr. Keyes, so much so that it emboldened Dole supporters for the first time since she entered the race. Coming off of that, Keyes fell back into McCain level obscurity, and Dole rose to heights she had never seen before.

One more step to the Gingrich revival he so needed.

[RedPrometheus]

I really enjoy this timeline! Keep up the good work

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Is Buchanan still seeking the Reform Party nomination?

[Maxwell]

Is Buchanan still seeking the Reform Party nomination?

Yes. He is. And Ralph Nader is still the Green candidate.

[Maxwell]

The Showdown, Part 1



Rasmussen Iowa Poll (November)
34% Gephardt
26% Edwards
17% Gore
5% Mosely Braun
4% Bradley

At the infamous Watergate Hotel, Former Vice President Al Gore was checking his watch. Expecting Gephardt to be punctual was probably a mistake on his part, but nevertheless he felt frustrated. Gore had not exactly planned on being in a distant third in Iowa and barely clinging to his lead nationally. Edwards had since surged passed him in Iowa and had serious momentum nation wide. While Edwards had yet to lead in any polls, both Gore and Gephardt felt that his rise could mean the end of both of them. So they decided to plot against him. If Gephardt would show, that is...

And when Gephardt got there, there was obvious tension between the two. They had vicious battled one another like barbarians. Gore and Gephardt sat at opposite ends of the long black table in the meeting room to begin, symbolic of their long distance. Gore had one simple proposal for Gephardt - Drop out and endorse him.

Gephardt - "Are you fyking joking?"

Gore - "Not at all, Mr. Speaker"

Gephardt - "Well I'm laughing. This is what you call me in for?"

Gore - "Look, there has to be some way to knock out this Edwards guy. And I don't think that happens if we just call a truce. I think we've already done the damage to eachother."

Gephardt - "Then drop out and endorse me."

Gore - "I can't imagine you beating the kid. You have 2-1 negative ratings in the polls, your campaign infrastructure is pathetic out of Iowa, and frankly, you have no ability to beat the Republican."

Gephardt - "So you'd rather have the guy who just got in this and doesn't know what to expect than someone who has done battle with Republicans for ages."

Gore - "I'd rather I have the nomination."

Gephardt - "Oh go to hell! I'm going to continue this campaign and TRASH YOU. YOU WON'T GET A JOB AFTER THIS."

Gephardt flew back to Iowa, where he had basically been nesting all of his eggs, and when a reporter asked him about a policy question, Gephardt disobeyed his advisors and went back on the attack.

"Look, Iowa farmers need someone reliable, someone battle tested. John Edwards doesn't have that skill set. I believe, for all of his qualities, he doesn't have the strengths to stave off the Republican war on working families. And don't even get me started on Al Gore, who has spent his time voting with Republicans and then pretending to be the savior of the tormentor. Democrats only have one choice in this election."

It looks like both of them fell into Bill's trap...

[Maxwell]

The Showdown, Part 2

After the fall of Alan Keyes (who generally mid single digits at this point), two candidates gained from that - John McCain, who had become a stronger contender for the nomination and picked up those weird voters who picked Keyes solely because he was anti-establishment, and Newt Gingrich, who had positioned himself as the President AND the conservative candidate. Nevertheless, Gingrich still had the marriage problem that dogged him. While his wife had kept a secret his affair, reporters still questioned if the reason for the divorce was because of some kind of affair. Newt had to make perfectly clear that his personal life was off of the table.

The debate moderators served up a hefty question to Mr. Gingrich - Did you cheat on your wife? And Gingrich answered it like a pro.

"No. And frankly, I shouldn't have to answer to these kind of crazed accusations. The news media has this sensationalist approach, and it makes it harder for people to govern, harder to attract decent people to run for public office, and I am appalled that you would begin a Presidential debate with this tabloid approach. Taking personal pain that both my wife and treating it as an issue up for public debate is despicable."

Dole, feeling the energy of a crowd who gave the President a standing ovation, changed her approach when asked to comment,

"I actually agree with the President on this. Personal lives are personal for a reason. I will not attack my opponent on his divorce, and will stick to talking about how to make America better."

From there, a bitter back and forth between Gingrich and Dole, who attacked the Former Labor Secretary as insinuating that he had cheated on his wife the whole campaign, and Dole, suddenly on the defensive, backing away from the accusation. Within minutes, public opinion changed, and President Gingrich not only saw a surge in his approval ratings, but a surge in the polls. Iowa, which had been a double digit loss for the President, suddenly tightened. It was going to be neck and neck.

[Maxwell]

Iowa Results



Iowa Caucus (Democrats)
41% Senator John Edwards
29% Speaker Dick Gephardt
22% Former Vice President Al Gore
4% Senator Carol Moseley Braun
3% Former Senator Bill Bradley
1% Others

Despite a rise in attacks on the fledgling Senator, John Edwards not only won the Iowa caucuses, but dominated his two more well known opponents. Edwards' victory was so significant that he won every demographic except for union voters (who narrowly voted for Gephardt). This upset sent shock waves to the established Democrat class, who felt that Edwards still didn't have the experience nor the resources to pull this off.

The candidate immediately damaged by this win is Speaker Dick Gephardt, who had led in every poll up to this point and basically staked his reputation on a win in Iowa. Gephardt had been criticized for being absent on the job as Speaker of the House, which deeply frustrated the Democrat majority in the House, and had overwhelming negatives that were almost shocking to read. Nevertheless, he had a strong base of voters that made sure his performance wasn't as embarrassing as it could've been.

Less immediately damaged is Former Vice President Al Gore. But Gore still feels the pain - Iowa was competitive for him until Edwards showed up, then Gore dipped to third. Though his performance is about as expected, Gore now knows who he's facing for real - his former boss. Gore has his eggs in the New Hampshire basket and he's looking good in the region, though Senator Bill Bradley's numbers have perked up in the region.

The less said about the ethically challenged Carol Moseley Braun, the better.

Post-Iowa National Poll
36% Edwards
30% Gore
18% Gephardt
6% Bradley
3% Braun

Iowa Caucus (Republican)
43% President Newt Gingrich
43% Former Labor Secretary Elizabeth Dole
9% Former UN Ambassador Alan Keyes
3% Senator John McCain
2% Others

In the days following the Iowa Caucuses, multiple recounts occurred, with neither side claiming victory until every single vote was counted. By 23 votes, the President of the United States had prevailed in the Iowa Caucuses. Despite how narrow it was, the President's victory was a strong boon for his candidacy and a huge upset - Dole had led in the last few polls by up to 8 points. It was a massive show of strength, and for the first time in months, Gingrich pulled to a lead in the polls.

This loss is devastating for Dole, who had put her lot in Iowa. However, with her massive resources from establishment and GOP leadership, she planned a massive ad buy to get her back in the game. She planned a comeback in Michigan, seeing her numbers plummet in New Hampshire due to her distant campaign style and South Carolina being Gingrich country.

Most expected Alan Keyes to do better in Iowa, where he had most of his institutional support. But this won't stop Keyes obviously. Meanwhile, McCain's performance was indicative of how little he cared for the caucuses, as he much preferred the nature of New Hampshire.

It would be shocking how much McCain's feel for the state would come to define him...

Post-Iowa National Poll
46% Gingrich
33% Dole
10% McCain
3% Keyes

[Maxwell]

The Underdogs

The first primary of the nation was rearing its ugly head, with candidates swarming the state of New Hampshire like a pack of rapid dogs. The few of the lot who stood out in the state were ones who rarely stood out anywhere else - people who had toured the place early and had found loving homes to rest their head like the homeless. The underdogs would rise today.

Senator Bill Bradley, a name mentioned rarely in contention for the White House, saw his numbers go up dramatically in the fall of Speaker Gephardt. While Bradley was still a distant third, many saw a huge potential upset in his future. The same with Republican Senator John McCain, who rose slightly to a still distant third, but saw his standing overall improve with the fall of another frontrunner, Liz Dole.

Both men had, due to circumstances beyond their control, run marginal campaigns thus far. Both had taken unorthodox stands in the midst of their primaries - McCain advocating campaign finance reform and a robust education system, and Bradley endorsing widespread and effective tax reform. And both felt the wrath of party establishment. McCain, viewed as a maverick, was regularly criticized by party line and order for his stands, and Bradley viewed as something of a joke in the primary, after years of presidential contention picking this year of thunderous names to run.

Both had fortunes turn...

But only one would turn enough...

[Maxwell]

The Underdog has His Day



New Hampshire Primary (Republican)
39% John McCain
35% Newt Gingrich
22% Liz Dole
2% Alan Keyes
2% Others

After struggling far behind, the rise of John McCain occurs in perfect timing, with the Senator from Arizona winning a magnificent upset in the state of New Hampshire. McCain, running on a moderate platform and chastising President Gingrich as too conservative and unelectible, lost actual Republicans by 6 points, but won on an overwhelming margin from independents voting. This rise in support for Senator McCain resulted in a sharp drop for Mrs. Dole, who had trailed the President in most polls in the state but still held high 20s due to party moderates and those still concerned about the Presidents electability. Despite Gingrich's win in Iowa, this showed that voters in the Republican primary weren't quite ready for a coronation.

But while this underdog had his day, another sunk down and died.

Post-NH Rasmussen Poll (+4 Gingrich)
36% Newt Gingrich
32% John McCain
20% Liz Dole
4% Alan Keyes
8% Undecided

New Hampshire Results (Democrat)
42% Al Gore
23% John Edwards
19% Bill Bradley
8% Dick Gephardt
5% Carol Moseley Braun
3% Others

The calls of death for the campaign of Former Vice President Al Gore proved to be greatly exaggerated. Despite weak poll numbers in New Hampshire compared to the apparently insurgent Bill Bradley, Gore had an apparent miracle worker at hand in Michael Whouley. Gore not only defeated Bill Bradley, but Bradley sunk to third place behind the impressive performance by Iowa Winner John Edwards, who had performed in a rather mediocre fashion in the New Hampshire debate. Bradley, somewhat surprised by his weak performance, didn't announce until midnight that he had lost, and during his concession speech he immediately withdrew from the race, though many had no idea how much of a role he could play. Despite an Iowa win from Edwards, the frontrunner remained Gore, but the nomination fight just became a lot more interesting.

The less said about Gephardt's performance in the state of New Hampshire, the better.

Post-NH Rasmussen Poll (+11 Gore)
46% Al Gore
35% John Edwards
10% Dick Gephardt
9% Undecided

[Maxwell]

The Irrelevant Primary

The early February came and went, the primary nobody cared about had distinctive winners (Gingrich and Gore by wide margins), but voters waited it out for the real contests. These contests, Washington and South Carolina, had real ramifications for the candidates. Gore and Edwards, suddenly locked in a head to head battle after Gephardt quietly dropped out after an embarrassing 4% in Delaware, look to Washington to see where the contest heads. Gore, generally the victor in terms of big money and debates, has the advantage in the state, but Edwards, known for inspiring voters and surprising pundits, has his eyes set on an upset. Meanwhile, South Carolina is heavily contested by three candidates - President Newt Gingrich, the frontrunner still, Senator John McCain, the insurgent moderate who has shaken up the game, and Former Labor Secretary Elizabeth Dole, who is still in the game (barely) due to big money support and conservative reservations over the scandal-ridden Gingrich and the moderate McCain.

But during the time of the irrelevant primary, much was still relevant. Gephardt, following his embarassing performance, received a call from a certain Former President. Gephardt was in a particularly sour mood, and was not joyed to hear from Mr. Clinton. Still, he accepted the call. And Clinton did was Clinton did - schmooze, triangulate, twist, and attempted to ween an endorsement from the negatively viewed but still very powerful Gephardt. Gephardt felt much angst about Gore, a man he viewed with as much disdain as one can, but viewed Edwards as Tom Hanks in Big - a kid in an oversized suit. Gephardt was not ready to make any endorsement, no matter how much schmoozing Clinton attempted to make with him.

Clinton would get similar responses from Bill Bradley, who left the race with his tail tucked in due to his loss in New Hampshire, and Paul Wellstone, who didn't enter the race, but watching the field as it came down to the wire had come to regret his decision. Clinton's call with Wellstone may have moved the race in the wrong direction, as it turned to a shouting match over policy decisions during the Clinton era.

Still, the schmoozing went a long way with other members of leadership, and Minority Leader Tom Daschle had come to a decision. Daschle would back Edwards on the 24th of February, just a few days before the coming Washington primary, enough time to give the candidate a real boost.

Meanwhile, Gingrich had almost signed with relief at the rise of John McCain. McCain, though viewed highly by the media, had something of a toxic record as a Senator if ever he went beyond a certain point. Gingrich would make sure conservatives knew McCain, inside and out, and knew that he wasn't one of them. Gingrich, aware of his stature, began secretly telling his army of big conservative PACs to pound McCain and pound him hard.

In the coming days McCain felt the sting of those ads in South Carolina. His numbers in South Carolina, initially up almost double digits, began tumbling tumbling down, and McCain attempted to blame the President for the marked change of tone. Gingrich, in his press conference when asked, gave a typically Gingrich album. A smile, a claim to have nothing to do with it, and dismissal.

It was almost too easy for the President...

Delaware Results -

Republicans - 58% Gingrich, 22% Dole, 18% McCain, 2% Others
Democrats - 56% Gore, 38% Edwards, 5% Gephardt, 3% Others

[Maxwell]

The Palmetto State Nightmare



South Carolina Primary
51% Newt Gingrich
32% John McCain
13% Elizabeth Dole
4% Others

South Carolina would be remembered as the most negative campaign season ever. Though McCain got some jabs in on ethics and Gingrich's marital issues, Gingrich led the way on negativity, and blasted McCain's record in congress, his banking scandal, and his temperment. But Gingrich wasn't alone - his army of PACs swarmed on McCain in the last moments and burried him under a pile of lies. One ad even asked "Would you support a man who has an illegitimate black child?" By the time the media got to it, however, it was too late, blending into the next news cycle as the President won decisively in South Carolina after weeks of narrow polling.

McCain was furious when he heard about it, and in a very angry concession speech, publicly shamed the President for the behavior. But unlike Edwards' call to civility in the Democratic debates, McCain came off as petulant and seemingly proving Gingrich right on his criticisms on temperament, and by the day after South Carolina, Gingrich pole-vaulted to a strong lead nationally.

Still, though, none of the candidates had positive favorabilities among Republican voters, and some hoped for a brokered convention so as to allow for George W. Bush to take the nomination. Only time would tell...

National Polls (Post-SC)
48% Newt Gingrich
26% John McCain
18% Elizabeth Dole

[Maxwell]

The Evergreen Edwards



Washington Primary (Democrats)
50% Al Gore
46% John Edwards

Prior to the Evergreen Primary, Gore had pulled to a commanding lead in the state and nationally by hammering on Edwards liberal credentials. Taking a lesson from the President, Gore had pushed for base voters, criticizing Edwards views on issues like global warming, the budget, and tackling him on bread and butter issues, and to a point, it seemed to be working. But on February 26th, Edwards gave a heartfelt interview on ABC, subtley gaging Gore on the negativity of the race, but pushing a more populist view at the same time. Reporters who were paying attention recognized Edwards flip flopping on the issues, but most voters who saw the interview were impressed, and Edwards came rather close to a major upset in Washington state.

As returns came in, Al Gore nearly pulled his hair out. I spent all this time winning and he blows the lead with an INTERVIEW Gore exclaimed in his head. Watching the returns from his hotel room, smashing a glass in his hands when it took this long to call the race. Gore began to realize he had to persue a different strategy for the rest of the race - polls analyzing the primary showed Gore with poor favorables among the party (49%-40%) compared to Edwards (65%-23%), and future primaries didn't look quite as promising. Gore would have to step his game up and instead of bringing Edwards down, promote himself.

However, Gore, taking notes from the surprisingly resurgent Gingrich campaign, began plotting his own PACs to take it to the insurgent Edwards. Gore seemed to know the basics... but it didn't seem like he would be the master.

Speaking of President Gingrich, with his commanding lead in the polls, the President managed to take the primaries by storm. He lost Arizona by a large margin unsurprisingly, and Washington very narrowly, but beyond that, the President had begun gaining serious momentum to rebuild his nomination. Despite the fact that an incumbent President in recent history hasn't faced this much backlash from his own party, he has been gaining approval across the board, is beginning to be looked upon favorably, and the blown up McCain has been rather ineffective on the trail. Still, the level of mistrust has put Gingrich generally below 50% in most states, even in his residential home state Virginia (where Dole spent a lot of money hoping for a second place that didn't turn out). McCain is still fighting on like the pilot he is, while Dole is hoping McCain begins to fade to fight some of those last primaries as the legitimate establishment candidate. Seems doubtful considering her weak performances.

Other Primaries Up to February 29th, 2000

Republicans -
AZ - 52% McCain, 33% Gingrich, 12% Dole, 3% Others
MI - 45% Gingrich, 40% McCain, 10% Dole, 5% Others
NV - 49% Gingrich, 39% McCain, 8% Dole, 4% Others
Island Primaries - 70% Gingrich, 28% Dole
PR - 98% Gingrich, 2% Others
ND - 58% Gingrich, 34% McCain, 5% Dole, 3% Others
VA - 48% Gingrich, 29% McCain, 20% Dole, 3% Others
WA - 43% McCain, 42% Gingrich, 14% Dole, 1% Others

[Maxwell]

I want this time line to go to at least 2008... But I at least promise to finish 2004!

[Maxwell]

The Super Tuesday

Gingrich - California, Georgia, Maryland, Minnesota, Missouri, New York, Ohio
McCain - Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont

Super Tuesday ended up being rather rough for the fortunes of Senator John McCain. He not only came way too close in Maine and Connecticut, states where it was largely a lethargic affair on the campaign trail due to how sure it seemed a McCain win would be there, but he failed to strengthen his map beyond outside of the Northeast and some Western states. Ohio, Maryland, Minnesota, California, and New York, largely considered to be battle grounds if McCain was doing well, were largely wipe outs in the President's favor. It turned out that you can't run a no resources campaign and expect a win.

The winner was obviously the President, but the largely forgotten Liz Dole had pulled off some strong performances, gaining 2nd in Georgia and mid 20s in Ohio and Maryland. Dole put resources in those states to send a message - abandon McCain, and get back on the Dole train. And after McCain's anemic performance, some of the donors still seething from Gingrich's rejection of the moderate wing of the party are thinking of going back to her.

But Gingrich's delegate lead has grown quite wide, almost approaching impossible, especially for someone who has so few delegates as Dole. McCain has shown he doesn't have the props. Most Republican moderates are thinking about abandoning McCain after this showing. By this point, it seemed the President had effectively sewn together his party after leaving it so distraught earlier on.

Gore - Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont
Edwards - California, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Maryland, Missouri, North Dakota

To this point, Gore had successfully held back the hordes. Though the loss of California was devastating, Super Tuesday was largely going to be a net loss for Gore, and Gore held on despite weak polling in Maryland (where he lost by less than 2000 votes despite polls showing wide Edwards leads), Ohio (the upset of the night), and Missouri (another closer than expected state). In terms of delegates, thanks to a decent sized win in New York and a massive one in Massachusetts, Gore came out with more delegates than the insurgent Edwards.

But the hordes were coming again and again. Edwards nevertheless hailed Super Tuesday as a victory for his campaign, citing the narrow win in the fiercely fought California, and promised to ride forward with support from Middle America. In truth, it seemed demographically quite opposite. Gore's win in Ohio showed his support among whites in the Northeast did not decline much when it went to other states. Gore had bumped large leads among working class whites. However, a look at Edwards win in Georgia tells you all you need to know about his support - minorities backed Edwards by insane margins. It seemed demographics were the name of the game.

The most interesting race of the night was Missouri - Edwards won with barely 40% of the vote. The reason? The departed Dick Gephardt, who had left the race a while ago, had his name on the ballot and he registered a full 21% of the vote. Gephardt still played a crucial role in the race, not as an actual contender, but as a kingmaker.

And he had come damn close to a decision...

[Maxwell]

John McCain drops out, makes no endorsement



General Election Poll (Gallup)
48% Gore
41% Gingrich

46% Edwards
40% Gingrich

After a week or so of contemplating (and devastating losses in Colorado and Utah), Senator John McCain finally made the decision to abandon the race for the Presidency. Just a day before the southern contests, McCain gave a rather calm announcement bowing out, and notably left out a name in the speech - President Newt Gingrich. McCain, despite his calmness, felt anger in his heart over how the campaign went, with the widespread negativity of the Gingrich Super PACs being a tale of the ages.

Gingrich gave a loud and boisterous victory speech after McCain's announcement, very officially heading into the general election beating his chest. However, there really couldn't be that much beyond McCain's announcement to be happy about - Gingrich had faced the most competitive Presidential primary an incumbent has faced since Gerald Ford, still had a surprisingly strong-monied Liz Dole, who had been looking at a late comeback after a +30% showing in Utah, and still had low approval ratings from most Americans and was still largely behind the Democratic candidates, with both Gore and Edwards holding solid leads.

But Gingrich seemed prepared for the road ahead - and his strategists were at work on the late night. Along with a policy strategy that was aggressive, the campaign also looked at the potential for dirt. Gore seemed clean, but on Edwards they found some... scandalous behavior with women.

They knew now what they had to do.

New Results up to this Point

Republicans
Colorado - 62% Gingrich, 21% McCain, 15% Dole
Utah - 55% Gingrich, 29% Dole, 14% McCain
Wyoming - 59% Gingrich, 25% McCain, 14% Dole

Democrats
South Carolina - 64% Edwards, 34% Gore
Colorado - 51% Gore, 47% Edwards
Utah - 62% Gore, 32% Edwards
Arizona - 54% Edwards, 42% Gore
Michigan - 51% Edwards, 44% Gore
Minnesota - 59% Edwards, 37% Gore
Nevada - 55% Edwards, 43% Gore

[NeverAgain]

The Suspense is killing me.

[Maxwell]

All Things Coming Up Edwards



Illinois Primary
49.8% Edwards
48.9% Gore

In the nail-bitingest primary of the season, the Illinois primary proved to be the make or break point for the Democratic Primary. While Edwards had a decent advantage in the delegates, it was not nearly enough to call the race anything but a toss-up. Gore racked up surprisingly strong performances and many southern states, and after a foolish attempt by Edwards to contest Gore's home state of Tennessee (he lost 25-70), Gore had exceeded expectations in the set of Southern primaries, and appeared poised for a strong victory in Illnois.

However, something funny happened along the way.

Many Chicago politicos weren't a big fan of Al Gore. Gore had proven in the White House that he refused to play ball. Meanwhile, Edwards was the very definition of the ball playing type of politician, willing to do whatever it takes to remain on top. Rather than meeting voters, Edwards and his buddy Clinton met with Chicago big timers, searching for a way to win the primary. And the found a scandalous way to do it - old time vote buying. Hiring newly pro-Edwards ministers in black communities to the "campaign", hiring newly pro-Edwards people in hispanic communities, it wasn't surprising in Chicago politics, but it was surprising to see such level of illegality in a Presidential election. This brought him a surge of support the likes of which had only been seen in his huge Iowa win, causing a narrow victory for the North Carolina Senator and a huge boost of momentum.

Gore gave one last call to Dick Gephardt, his old foe. Begging and pleading for an endorsement in exchange for the Vice Presidency. Gephardt laughed, said "fyck you, already got it" and hung up the phone. The next day, Gephardt endorsed John Edwards for President of the United States.

Things began looking like a Clinton-Gingrich re-match.

Gallup Poll (April 1st, 2000)
51% Edwards
42% Gingrich