Massachusetts trends

[buritobr]

How much Massachusetts was more Democratic than the national popular vote

2012: 19.29%
2008: 18.55%
2004: 27.62%
2000: 26.78%
1996: 24.87%
1992: 12.96%
1988: 15.58%
1984: 15.43%
1980: 9.59%
1976: 13.61%
1972: 32.12%
1968: 30.82%
1964: 30.16%
1960: 20.51%
1956: -3.55%
1952: 2.09%
1948: 7.02%
1944: -1.68%
1940: -3.20%
1936: -14.80%
1932: -13.76%
1928: 18.51%
1924: -12.20%
1920: -14.47%
1916: -7.06%
1912: -10.87%
1908: -15.65%
1904: -1.87%
1900: -13.58%
1896: -38.84%

We see that unlike other Northeastern states, Massachusetts is not trending D anymore. Massachusetts was more D in comparison to the national average in 1996 than it was in 2008. It is better not to consider 2004 and 2012, because there was a favorite son running. But we see that the difference of the margin was bigger in 2000 than it was in 2008.
It looks like that although Massachusetts is a safe D state, it has a safe R 1/3 when there is no strong third party candidate.

[sg0508]

The last two GOP candidates are the types (so they seemed) that could possibly get some cross-over voting.  I agree that MA is not the most Democratic state in the country any longer.  Unlike in many blue states, the GOP in MA has a pulse.

[IceSpear]

For all that we say about Romney, he definately did pick up some swingy voters in the suburbs, probaby more than Santorum would have.

Well yeah, but that's not saying very much. He improved by less in MA than he did nationwide compared to McCain.

[buritobr]

From 1948 to 1996, Massachusetts used to be more D than New York. Nowadays, both states are equally D.

However, Massachusetts doesn't elect Republican representatives because there is no strong spatial concentration of party strengh.
In New York, there are some Republican districts in the countryside. NYC is more than 80% Democratic.

[MATTROSE94]

From 1948 to 1996, Massachusetts used to be more D than New York. Nowadays, both states are equally D.

However, Massachusetts doesn't elect Republican representatives because there is no strong spatial concentration of party strengh.
In New York, there are some Republican districts in the countryside. NYC is more than 80% Democratic.

It's also possible that New York might vote more Democratic than Massachusetts in 2016, especially with Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

From 1948 to 1996, Massachusetts used to be more D than New York. Nowadays, both states are equally D.

However, Massachusetts doesn't elect Republican representatives because there is no strong spatial concentration of party strengh.
In New York, there are some Republican districts in the countryside. NYC is more than 80% Democratic.

It's also possible that New York might vote more Democratic than Massachusetts in 2016, especially with Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee.

It already did by 3% in 2012.  It will almost certainly be a better state for Hillary than Mass. in 2016. 

[buritobr]

From 1948 to 1996, Massachusetts used to be more D than New York. Nowadays, both states are equally D.

However, Massachusetts doesn't elect Republican representatives because there is no strong spatial concentration of party strengh.
In New York, there are some Republican districts in the countryside. NYC is more than 80% Democratic.

It's also possible that New York might vote more Democratic than Massachusetts in 2016, especially with Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee.

It already did by 3% in 2012.  It will almost certainly be a better state for Hillary than Mass. in 2016. 

I though it was better not to consider 2004 and 2012 in the discussion concerning Massachusetts trends. The presence of a candidate from the state might have distorted the results.

[hopper]

Massachusetts swung 2 points R from 2004 to 2012 while the country swung 7 points D during that period. So, MA went 9 points against the national swing during that time period.  Western MA is mostly Dem but its not gaining population like Eastern MA is which is more Republican than its Western counterpart with the exception of the City of Boston I think.