The 1968 Deadlock

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Nixon 1971 SOTU: The Republicans have a mandate (In Nixon's imaginary world, at least)!

Nixon began his SOTU speech with the statement: "Fear the Republican Party: We have won!" and that really set the tone for the rest of speech. Not only did Nixon squash any rumors of him ever resigning, he also acted as if 1970 had been a republican wave. He said that all the seats they had lost had simply been to midterm-turnout shenagigans, and that if America would just have 100% turnout for once, his party would have won every race that had been decided by less than 15 points. He said the gubernatorial and senate pickups in Tennessee and Connecticut showed that the american people wanted the republican party, and that if they did not, then why did republicans do so well in Tennessee and Connecticut. Nixon said he expected his agenda to be adhered to at all times and for all his proposals to pass without question. He said he was not taking civil rights off the table, he was not taking banning interracial marriage via constitutional amendment off the table, and he said that he would not sign anything else aside from basic keep the lights on bills until some of his initiatives were passed. He said the criticism of him, especially from his own party, was unmerited and despicable, and that anyone, democrat or republican, who continued to be critical of him, would see him endorsing their opponent no matter how toxic or terrible that opponent happened to be.

------------------------

After the speech, things got rather...interesting. The moment Nixon finished his speech, while the audience was still reluctantly clapping, to the surprise of everyone (this had not been planned), the Senate Minority Leader promptly yanked Nixon off the stage and pushed him face-first unto the carpet. Then he began hitting Nixon all over his body with a large cane while he yelled various insults at him. When he was done, he sat on Nixon to keep him from getting up. Then he said to him: "Give me an honest answer. Do you even care about the electoral success of the republican party even more?" Nixon said that he did, to which the reply was "Then why not admit we did bad last election? Even you know that CT was a result of split opposition, that our margin in TN was much too small, and that the only reason Fong won in Hawaii was because he ran away from you as fast as was humanly possible." Nixon muttered some words, and the senate minority leader hit him with the cane again. "Speak louder!" he said. Nixon then said "What's the use in trying to win when I was given close to no mandate over my victory in the popular vote in 1968, and the democrats are acting like they won every race last year when they clearly didn't? The voters, by giving us that 41st seat, are endorsing some of both party's agenda, and instead the democrats refuse to give me leeway on anything?" The reply was: "Maybe it's just time to concede on the civil rights crap." Then Nixon said "But then, we'll lose by even more. There's no further point to this discussion, so get off me. I'm not resigning, and I'm not giving up on anything." Seeing a look of "give it up" from the house minority leader, the senate minority leader allowed Nixon to get up, and he promptly left the building.

And so, that night, the plan by the Republican Party to force Nixon into a second impeachment trial began with a call from George Wallace himself to President Nixon. In it, Wallace lectured Nixon on his inability to get civil rights legislation through congress and said he was not endorsing any anti-civil rights candidates for the 1972 elections unless Nixon got something through by April 1972. The expectation was that this would result in Nixon engaging in bribes with members of congress to get things done, but the actual result was something far different...

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

February 3rd, 1971 - Nixon Issues Resignation

In a hastily planned speech, Nixon surprised everyone by announcing that he, too, had decided to resign. He said that the actions of the Senate Minority Leader on the day of his SOTU, and what he was calling a "call of disappointment" from George Wallace, had made him see that despite what he still believed was a partial endorsement from the public during the 1970 elections, the fight on civil rights was simply a fight he was incapable of defeating the democratic party at. He said the republican party needed to find a better leader. And he was resigning as a method of punishing himself for not being the leader who could get through civil rights modifications through a hostile congress. He acknowledged that the democrats might ram through a few pieces of legislation of their own in the absence of a republican president, but he said that 1972 could become a republican wave like no other through strategic attacks on whatever the democrats passed. He said that his resignation would become effective in a week, and profusely apologized for being such an ineffective president.

Upon Nixon's departure from office, the republican party put up a collective cheer, for they felt that now their electoral problems would suddenly be resolved. For now, though, the country had a democratic president until at least January 1973, as the constitution mandated the ascension of House Speaker Carl Albert (D, OK-03) to the Presidency. Congressman William Barrett (D, PA-01) was hastily appointed to the position of Vice President. Generic Democrats easily won special elections to fill the two seats.

--------

Next Time: A look at the potential candidates for the 1972 Republican Presidential Nomination
After: The Albert Cabinet

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Note: President Albert is not expected to have any serious competition for the democratic nomination.

The 1972 Republican Presidential Field

1st Tier - The Early Frontrunners

• Ronald Reagan, Governor of California

Pros - Very popular at home, high name recognition, strong Anti-Nixon message, Open to changes in Civil Rights legislation

Cons - Polarizing within the party, ran unsuccessfully for the nomination in '68, used to be a democrat

Chance of Running - 90%

• Nelson Rockefeller, Governor of New York

Pros - High Name Recognition, Famous Family Name, Easily reelected in 1970, One of the most Vocal callers for Nixon's resignation, extremely electable in the GE

Cons - Ran for nomination in '60, '64, and '68 unsuccessfully, possibly too moderate to be nominated

Chance of Running - 70%

• Spiro Agnew, Former Vice President of the United States and Former Maryland Governor

Pros - Essentially 100% name recognition, resigned due to disgust with Nixon, advantage of as-close-to-incumbency-as-you-can-get-in-the-republican-field, got elected in one of the more difficult states for republicans

Cons - Failed to deliver Maryland for Nixon in 1968, possibly too close to Nixon, has to convince party that sticking with 'old blood' will work out in the GE

Chance of Running - 99%

2nd Tier - The Top Alternatives

• Former Nixon Cabinet Member and Former Tennessee Senator Howard Baker

Pros - Popular within the party, vocal critic of Nixon towards the end, medium name recognition

Cons - Ties to Nixon, May be more interested in trying to primary Senator Jenkins (R-TN), who is up for reelection in 1972

Chance of Running - 50%

• Former Nixon Cabinet Member and Former Illinois Senator Charles H. Percy

Pros - Highly Popular in a fairly purple state, medium name recognition, seen as highly electable & as a rising star

Cons - Ties to Nixon, may be more interested in a 1974 run against Senator Stevenson (D-IL)

Chance of Running - 50%

• Governor Daniel Evans of Washington

Pros - got elected in a liberal state, was considered for VP in 1968, Popular at home, high name recognition due to having given the 1968 Convention Keynote Address

Cons - possibly too moderate, endorsed Rockefeller in 1968, unclear if he actually wants to run

Chance of Running - 40%

• Senator Strom Thurmond of South Carolina

Pros - Well known, strong champion of modifications to the civil rights act, very popular at home

Cons - Used to be a democrat, possibly unelectable in the general, would have to give up Senate Seat to run

Chance of Running - 40%

• Oklahoma Governor Dewey F. Bartlett

Pros - open to civil rights modifications, military service, medium name recongition

Cons -  modest approval ratings, not terribly experienced

Chance of Running - 60%

• Former Governor Harold Stassen of Minnesota

Pros - Got elected in a liberal state, long career of public service, known within the party, probably electable in a GE.

Cons - Has been out of office for over a decade, has run for nomination many times before

Chance of Running - 65%

• Congressman Pete McCloskey of California

Pros - disliked Nixon from the moment he was elected in '68, from a liberal state, military service, electability

Cons - Nationally unknown, possibly too moderate

Chance of Running - 75%

3rd Tier - The Underdogs

• Former U.S. Attorney Elliot Richardson of Massachusetts

Pros - From a liberal state, strong supporter of Nixon's Impeachment in 1970

Cons - Nationally unknown, may not be experienced enough

Chance of Running - 60%

• Arkansas Governor Winthrop Rockefeller

Pros - First Republican Governor of Arkansas since reconstruction, famous family name

Cons - May not want to run against his brother Nelson

Chance of Running - 35%

• Senator Charles Mathias of Maryland

Pros - Got elected in liberal state, voted to impeach Nixon

Cons - probably too moderate, low name ID nationally

Chance of Running - 30%

• Senator Edward Brooke of Massachusetts

Pros - Got elected in liberal state, began calling for Nixon's resignation in December, fairly popular at home

Cons - African-American, nationally unknown, voted against impeaching Nixon, likely too moderate, unlikely to run

Chance of Running - 20%

4th Tier - Want to Buy a Book?

• Congressman John Ashbrook of Ohio

Pros - from a swing state

Cons - Seen as someone who is only running to get attention, almost nobody knows who he is outside of his district, strongly against Nixon's resignation

Chance of Running - 80%

• Senator John Tower of Texas

Pros - from a swing state

Cons - low name ID nationally, former democrat, too moderate, too inexperienced

Chance of Running - 60%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

February 8th, 1971 - Congressman Pete McCloskey is the first to announce for the GOP nomination

In a speech in San Diego, Congressman McCloskey stressed his congressional experience and dislike of Nixon, and said he was entering the race to prevent "the devastation that more than two years of a President Albert will cause.

February 26th, 1971 - Former Minnesota Gov. Harold Stassen announces presidential run

In a speech in St. Paul, Stassen criticized notions that he cannot be nominated. Emphasizing that he had learned from his past mistakes, he pledged to surprise everyone and be known as the "greatest president of the century".

March 15th, 1971 - Strom Thurmond and Charles Percy NOT running

In separate interviews with CBS, both Sen. Strom Thurmond and Former Sen. Charles Percy declined to run for the presidency. Asked if he would be interested in a 1974 attempt to return to the senate, Percy merely said "I am carefully considering it and have no decision at this time".

March 24th, 1971 - Congressman John Ashbrook running for President

In a speech in Dayton, OH, Ashbrook said he was running to resume Nixon's presidency, which he said should never have ended. He spent much of the speech criticizing the crowd for not being larger.

April 6th, 1971 - Mathias and Evans out, Bartlett in

Oklahoma Gov. Dewey F. Bartlett announced his run for the presidency today, stressing his gubernatorial experience and openness to banning interracial marriage. In other news, Sen. Charles Mathias of Maryland and Gov. Daniel Evans of Washington announced today that they would not run for the presidency and would instead focus on their current jobs.

April 12th, 1971 - Agnew enters GOP field

As widely expected, Spiro Agnew entered the GOP field today, stressing his differences from Nixon and knowledge of the inner workings as government as things that would allow him to lead the nation to newfound prosperity.

Status of the GOP field - April 13, 1971

Reagan - has formed exploratory committee, rumored to be planning to enter in May.
N. Rockefeller - says he is "carefully considering his options".
Agnew - running

Baker - has formed "testing the waters" committee, will make decision "during the summer"
Percy - not running
Evans - not running
Thurmond - not running
Bartlett - running
Stassen - running
McCloskey - running

Richardson - unknown
W. Rockefeller - unknown
Mathias - not running
Brooke - says he is "leaning against running".

Ashbrook - running
Tower - has formed "testing the waters" committee, says he will make a decision "by June".

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The final confirmation hearings and votes on President Albert's Cabinet occurred in April. Below is the full cabinet:

Secretary of State - Cyrus Vance
Secretary of the Treasury - William Miller
Secretary of Defense - Henry Kissinger
Attorney General - Happy Chandler (re-appointed from Nixon administration)
Secretary of the Interior - Cecil Andrus
Secretary of Agriculture - Bob Bergland
Secretary of Commerce - Ray Marshall
Secretary of Labor - Juanita Kreps
Secretary of Health, Education and Welfare - David Matthews
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development - Patricia Harris
Secretary of Transportation - Brock Adams
Secretary of Energy - Moon Landrieu
Chief of Staff - David Gergen
Federal Reserve Chairman - Arthur Burns (re-appointed from Nixon administration)
OMB Director - Thomas Lance

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

April 18, 1971 - Richardson Not Running

Today, Former U.S. Attorney Elliot Richardson announced on CBS that he is not running for President, saying he enjoys being out of high public office.

May 3rd, 1971 - Reagan In

In a speech in San Diego, CA, Gov. Ronald Reagan announced that he is running for the presidency. He stressed his popularity, conservative credentials, and ability to compromise.

May 14th, 1971 - Nelson Rockefeller In, Brooke Out

As Sen. Edward Brooke said on NBC that he is, as expected, not running for President, Nelson Rockefeller announced his candidacy in Buffalo, NY, stressing his electability and family name.

May 15th, 1971 - Winthrop Rockefeller not running

Winthrop sent out a press release today shooting down any hope of him running for President and endorsing his brother Nelson.

June 14th, 1971 - Carl Albert (D) publicly announces run for a full term

In an expected and mostly ignored press release, Albert confirmed that he is running for a full term as President.

June 22nd, 1971 - Baker and Tower In

Fmr. Sen. Howard Baker and Sen. John Tower announced presidential runs today. They would prove to be the last announcements of the cycle.

Full List of Candidates

Carl Albert (D, inc.)

Pete McCloskey (R)
Harold Stassen (R)
John Ashbrook (R)
Dewey Bartlett (R)
Spiro Agnew (R)
Ronald Reagan (R)
Nelson Rockefeller (R)
Howard Baker (R)
John Tower (R)

----------------

June 30 National Primary Polling

Agnew: 18%
Rockefeller: 16%
Reagan: 16%
Baker: 11%
Bartlett: 8%
Stassen: 5%
McCloskey: 4%
Tower: 4%
Ashbrook: 1%
Undecided: 17%

[Dancing with Myself]

Love this thread, who doesn't love crazy Nixon?

Will he be still as hated as in RL?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Love this thread, who doesn't love crazy Nixon?

Will he be still as hated as in RL?

His favorability ratings eventually resurface to the low to mid 40s, but he never runs for political office again.

---------------------

Rest of 1971

Despite the democratic party having the trifecta, they are unable to ram a liberal agenda through. Many things are proposed, including various expansions to the social programs passed under LBJ and cuts to the defense department, but nothing passes. The republicans are good at holding firm, even keeping senators such as Charles Mathias and Hiram Fong to the party line most of the time, and the democrats have trouble keeping all 59 of their senators in line - conservatives such as Lloyd Bentsen (TX) and Frank Morrison (NE) often voted against the party line, shooting down key democratic initiatives. So, any fears of Pres. Albert enacting the liberal agenda were completely unfounded, and the country was divided on their opinion of him:

President Albert Approval Rating (December 31, 1971)

Approve: 47%
Disapprove: 45%

Meanwhile, in the campaign for the upcoming primaries, Agnew has proved to be not the greatest campaigner, subject to occasional gaffes. The polling in the 1st in the nation primary in New Hampshire has him trailing Nelson Rockefeller in the state. This will be followed by primaries in Florida and Illinois - Bartlett has a narrow lead in Florida, while Reagan leads slightly in Illinois. There is a real desire among at least some republicans to nominate an anti-Nixon candidate, and Bartlett, despite losing his governorship in the 1970 wave, has become a real possibility to win the nomination. Only one candidate has dropped out at this point - John Ashbrook, who dropped out in early december as he has failed to gain any traction in the polling.

Note: The primaries in 1972 are different from the present day. There are only 18 state primaries, which take place from March 7th to June 6th, and the rest of the delegate awarding is done at the convention.

December 31, 1971 National Primary Polling

Rockefeller: 20%
Reagan: 20%
Agnew: 18%
Bartlett: 12%
Baker: 7%
McCloskey: 4%
Stassen: 2%
Tower: 1%
Undecided: 16%

[Fuzzy Bear]

In truth, there would have been tremendous pressure on the major party candidate with the second most votes to throw their support to the candidate with the largest number of votes.  There may have been a deal where the other party's VP candidate would have been VP (Nixon and HHH had been there and done that) as a sort of "National Unity" gesture (which would have been welcomed and needed at that time), but there would have been no dickering with George Wallace.

People of this generation don't understand that in 1968, partisanship was ebbing, and ticket-splitting was a norm.  Folks back then "voted the man" for President much moreso than they do today, even if they voted straight tickets for downballot offices.  That's because the Presidency and Presidential candidates; the nation was remembering Eisenhower and mourning JFK. 

George Wallace's assertion that there wasn't a dime's worth of difference between the Democratic and Republican parties' candidates for President was pretty much agreed upon in 1968.  And that was what America wanted.  Aside from the "never" faction of the Deep South, Wallace was not a consensus choice even among Southern whites in 1968; most whites in VA, NC, SC, TN, TX, and FL voted for Nixon.  Wallace was clearly considered out of the mainstream when push came to shove; he was considered part of the problem that Middle America wanted solved.  ("Bring Us Together" was a Nixon theme for 1968, and a theme driven by much market research.) 

While the Middle America of 1968 was far more conservative, racially, than they are today, they would have been in open rebellion against a President who brokered a deal with George Wallace to get the top job.  Wallace scared much of Republican Middle America of 1968 in that he was perceived as a person who was willing to pour gasoline on a fire in order to burn down the existing structure to build something new, even if there were still people in the burning structure.  Wallace was seen as a person who would perpetuate race riots; Middle America blamed the rioters for the riots, but saw Wallace as a person who would incite further violence.  Middle America was NOT supportive of the McCarthy dovish position on Vietnam, but they WERE for a plan to honorably end the war; Wallace was for blowing North Vietnam to Kingdom Come.  Middle America wanted stability.  George Wallace promised turmoil to break deadlocks in favor of those who agreed with him.

Wallace's image moderated over the years, as he (A) rejoined the Democratic Party, (B) ran as a Democrat for President in 1972 and 1976 and even endorsed Carter in 1976, and (C) apologized for his segregationist past later on.  This after-the-fact moderating of Wallace's image makes the possibility of an Electoral College "deal" in 1968 something that was actually feasible.  And if there were some kind of scenario today where a 3rd party candidate carried a state and held the balance of power, all bets would be off.  Today's Democrats would make that guy their VP to avoid losing the election in the House.  (And today's GOP House would elect the Republican even if the GOP ran 5 points behind the Democrat.)  There would have been no deal in 1968 that would not have poisoned the winner's Presidency even before he took office.  The Middle America of 1968 would not tolerate a President who, in any way, was beholden to George Wallace.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

1971 Gubernatorial Elections (forgot to include this in the last update)

Kentucky

Wendell Ford (D): 51.8%
Thomas Emberton (R): 47%
Willam Smith (American): 1.2%

(Democratic Gain of Open Seat!)

Louisiana

Edwin Edwards (D): 56%
David Treen (R): 44%

(Democratic Hold of Open Seat!)

Mississippi

William Waller (D): 77%
Charles Evers (I): 22.3%
Charles Sullivan (I): 0.7%

(Democratic Hold of Open Seat!)

(Gubernatorial Composition is now 35-15 democratic)

-----------

National Primary Polling (March 3, 1972):

Rockefeller: 22%
Reagan: 22%
Agnew: 19%
Bartlett: 15%
Baker: 6%
McCloskey: 2%
Stassen: 2%
Tower: 2%
Undecided: 10%

The first in the nation primary in New Hampshire, taking place on March 7th, looks to be an extremely close race between Rockefeller and Agnew. Bartlett and Reagan are jockeying for third place....

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

* Speeches for those who place 1st-3rd or drop out are transcribed. *

March 7, 1972



Rockefeller: 29.1%
Agnew: 22%
Bartlett: 15.4%
Reagan: 14.5%
Baker: 9.6%
McCloskey: 5.1%
Stassen: 2.4%
Tower: 1.9%


"The New Hampshire primary was expected to be very close, but Rockefeller has dominated. He did very well among the parts of the state that border Massachusetts, winning Hillsborough and Rockingham counties by a large margin and coming close in Cheshire and Sullivan. He pulled off narrow wins in Strafford, Belknap and Coos, with Agnew coming in second in the former two and Bartlett placing second in Coos. Agnew was able to run up the score in Merrimack County and narrowly outpolled Rockefeller in Carroll, but it wasn't enough. Reagan easily won Carroll County, while Bartlett easily won the slightly more populous Grafton County. Bartlett's campaign met their goal of placing third, and Rockefeller is the big winner, so those campaigns can sigh in relief. But tonight creates serious questions about the viability of Reagan and Agnew, as well as the viability of the candidates who placed 5th-8th."

------------------

"Well, the message of the voters is clear, and it's time for me to drop out. I shall resume serving the people of Texas in the United States Senate." - John Tower

"This is a disappointing performance. We worked extremely hard, but it just wasn't in the cards for us tonight. I must do what is the right for the party, and drop out. My support is for my fellow southerner Dewey Bartlett." - Pete McCloskey

"Thank you! Thank you! Thank you! This is a great result, and shows that my candidacy has real steam. Today, we showed that I am more than a perennial, but instead a real threat to the party establishment. I also want to thank McCloskey for his endorsement, which only shows our candidacy's strength even more! On to Florida!" - Dewey Bartlett

"Well, we didn't get the performance we wanted, but 2nd place is still something we can live with. This is only one state in the race for the nomination. Only one state. We can win in Illinois, and that is where I will begin campaigning tomorrow morning. We will win this nomination!" - Spiro Agnew

"Thank you! Thank you! Thank you! Today we showed that the path to the republican party's future is not right back to the Nixon crew, no, it is a new path forward to the liberal wing, represented by me! This excellent victory will propel us to the nomination!" - Nelson Rockefeller

"The next contests are in Florida on the 14th and Illinois on the 21st, followed by Wisconsin on April 4. Florida is a dead heat between Bartlett and Reagan, Illinois is a dead heat between Bartlett, Agnew, and Rockefeller. Rockefeller holds a large lead in Wisconsin at this time, though that could change depending on the results of the Florida and Illinois contests."

National Primary Polling - March 8, 1972

Rockefeller - 27%
Agnew - 22%
Reagan - 18%
Bartlett - 16%
Baker - 7%
Stassen - 1%
Undecided - 9%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

March 14, 1972



Reagan: 30.2%
Bartlett: 28.1%
Baker: 15.7%
Rockefeller: 12.2%
Agnew: 10.4%
Stassen: 3.6%

"Florida is very divided in terms of the republican primary. Reagan won the primary narrowly by doing well in the democratic areas of the state, the I-4 corridor, and many other counties in the more geographically southern area of the state. However, Bartlett came close by doing very well in the panhandle and other geographically northern parts of the state, including in the Tallahassee and Jacksonville areas, and won a scattered handful of counties in the rest of the state. Meanwhile, Baker, despite staking everything on and making a huge effort in the state, placed a distant third, winning in only two of the state's counties. Rockefeller and Agnew did not actively campaign in the state, and placed 4th and 5th respectively. Agnew managed to win one county by a narrow margin over Bartlett, while Rockefeller was shut out county wise. Stassen performed terribly, but this was as expected."

"Thank you! Thank you! Tonight we have proved that this second campaign of mine for the presidency will be a success! This victory, over the strong southern base of Mr. Bartlett, shows the true strength of our support within the republican party. Thank you! On to Wisconsin!" - Ronald Reagan

"Thank you for all the support! While we did not win tonight, we came very close to victory and this is evidence that I am still capable of winning the nomination! As much as Mr. Reagan would like it to, this narrow loss does not mean the end for us! In Illinois, we will get a victory, and all of the pundits will be forced to acknowledge the great credibility of our campaign!" - Dewey Bartlett

"Unfortunately, tonight did not bring the performance that we needed to justify our campaign. Without a good performance here, there is little merit in continuing. It is time to do the right thing and withdraw from the race. My endorsement is for Dewey Bartlett." - Howard Baker

"The next primary is in Illinois, where Agnew, Rockefeller, Bartlett, and Stassen are all hoping for a good result. Reagan is not actively campaigning in the state as he believes the better race to go for is the primary after Illinois, in Wisconsin, where Rockefeller is leading by a comfortable but steadily narrowing margin. A Rockefeller loss in Illinois probably won't take him out of the race, but a loss in Wisconsin could..."

National Primary Polling (March 15, 1972)

Reagan: 25%
Rockefeller: 24%
Bartlett: 23%
Agnew: 19%
Stassen: 2%
Undecided: 7%


Primary Standings

1st. Rockefeller - 1 Win (NH)
1st. Reagan - 1 Win  (FL)
3rd. Others - 0 Wins

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

March 21, 1972



Bartlett: 28.4%
Rockefeller: 27.5%
Agnew: 22.6%
Reagan: 15.1%
Stassen: 6.4%

"And now, after placing third in New Hampshire and second in Florida, Bartlett has finally gotten a victory in the state of Illinois. Rockefeller won in Cook County and two of the collar counties, as well as a scattering of other counties. However, Reagan, despite not campaigning much in the state, was able to, along with Bartlett, keep Rockefeller's margins in the non-cook/collar counties to only a few points, and Reagan even won a few counties of his own. In the north, Rockefeller was also unable to get big enough margins, as Agnew won the majority of the collar counties and pulled off other victories across the northern part of the state, and was also able to significantly cut into Rockefeller's margins in Cook and the two collar counties Rockefeller won. All this allowed Bartlett to pull off a narrow victory by doing (very) well throughout the rural areas of the state despite coming in third in all of the collar counties except for one (Will) in which he narrowly outpolled Rockefeller.

Meanwhile, Stassen performed very poorly despite a strong effort in the state, and did not win a single county. It is very hard to see a path forward for him."

"Thank you! Thank you! With each primary, my ability to defeat the establishment of Agnew, Rockefeller, and Reagan increases, and now I have finally won. Our strong grassroots effort defeated the Rockefeller Urban base, and now no one can deny that we have a very credible shot at the nomination! Make No Mistake - We Will Win this nomination! On to Pennsylvania!" - Dewey Bartlett

"Thank you for all the support. While we did not get a victory tonight, we still had a strong performance and kept the Bartlett margin of victory to under 1%. This is only our first disappointment, and it does not take us out of the race by any means. In Wisconsin, we will Win! In Massachusetts and Pennsylvania, we will Win! Let's keep moving forward!" - Nelson Rockefeller

"This night was a true disappointment, no other way to spin it. Tonight's weak performance means I do not stand a chance in Wisconsin, and without a win there, there is no path for me. It is time to do the right thing and leave this race. It is sad that the party is unwilling to nominate me, but it's just not meant to be. I have no endorsement at this time." - Harold Stassen

"Sadly, third place is just not the performance we aimed for here. With this performance, I only appear weaker and gain absolutely nothing. In order to justify continuing on to Massachusetts and Pennsylvania, I needed a strong performance here, and with only a non-close third place here, I know I am not capable of winning those states. Leaving the race is definitely the right thing to do. I thought I could win this nomination due to my recent position as VP, but it is now clear that I cannot. My endorsement is for Nelson Rockefeller." - Spiro Agnew

"And that concludes the primaries for the month of March. The next contest is in Wisconsin on April 4. Rockefeller remains the favorite there, but his lead continues to narrow, and a Reagan win is possible. Following that is Massachusetts, which is safe for Rockefeller,  on April 25th. Also on April 25th is Pennsylvania, where it is Toss-Up/Tilt Rockefeller, with Reagan more likely to defeat him there than Bartlett is. 9 other states hold primaries in May, while the final 3 primaries are in June."

Primary Standings

1st. Rockefeller - 1 win (NH)
1st. Reagan - 1 win (FL)
1st. Bartlett - 1 win (IL)

National Primary Polling - March 22, 1972

Rockefeller - 31%
Reagan - 29%
Bartlett - 29%
Undecided - 11%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

April 4, 1972



Rockefeller: 43.8%
Reagan: 38%
Bartlett: 18.2%

"The state that was once thought to be super-safe for Rockefeller only went to him by a 6 point margin. Rockefeller did well in the most heavily populated areas, but Reagan's strong vote in the rural areas and a few rogue counties going for Bartlett helped to make it a fairly close contest. When Reagan first began campaigning in this state as opposed to Illinois, many called him a fool, but now that he has given Rockefeller an unexpectedly close call in this state, the move is seen as a successful one. However, as Rockefeller did win the contest, his campaign remains alive heading into the Massachusetts and Pennsylvania primaries on April 25."

"Thank you for all the support! While this is not the big victory I campaigned for, it is a victory nonetheless, and it is the victory that keeps our campaign going! Make no mistake, we are not dead! We are not dead! In Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, maybe even Ohio, we will win! We will crush the opposition. This is only the beginning!" - Nelson Rockefeller

"Thank you! Thank you! Thank you! Tonight, this close contest shows just how weak Rockefeller is. It clearly shows that Rockefeller is not capable of winning this nomination. Even states that are supposed to be good states for him can give the other candidates an honest look. Make no mistake, this result puts us in a much stronger position, and I am confident we can lock down Pennsylvania , and if we do that, we can even make a play for Massachusetts!" - Ronald Reagan

"This state was never a major target of ours. It never was going to viable for us. But still, we won several counties and helped lower the Rockefeller margin of victory. And that is an accomplishment! In Pennsylvania, we will upset the establishment and earn another victory!" - Dewey Bartlett

"Looking ahead to the 25th, Massachusetts is considered safe for Rockefeller, while Pennsylvania could easily go for any of the three candidates."

Primary Standings

1st. Rockefeller - 2 wins (NH, WI)
2nd. Reagan - 1 win (FL)
2nd. Bartlett - 1 win (IL)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

April 25, 1972



Rockefeller: 59.7%
Reagan: 30.1%
Bartlett: 11.2%

"No surprise in the state of Massachusetts. Rockefeller wins by a landslide, with Reagan only winning in a couple rural counties."


(Yellow = Bartlett)

Reagan: 35.4%
Rockefeller: 34.4%
Bartlett: 30.2%

"And the Rockefeller machine fails again in another key battleground primary! While Rockefeller won much of the Philadelphia area, several of the suburbs did go for Reagan, and he was able to keep Rockefeller's margins just low enough to be overtaken in the Pittsburgh area, where Rockefeller's Allegheny County margin was underwhelming and the suburbs were mostly split between Reagan and Bartlett. Most of Bartlett's 30%, however, came from a very strong performance throughout the state's rural areas."

"Thank you! Thank you! Thank you! Thank you! With this win, we show that even in the north, Rockefeller is not invincible! Rockefeller is not invincible! Today, we had an amazing performance! Truly Amazing! This is a clear sign that we will win this nomination! Thank you!" - Ronald Reagan

"This is not the knockout performance that we desired today. That is clear. But it is a close finish nonetheless, we did win in Massachusetts, and my campaign remains alive. No matter how much Reagan may think we are dead, we are not. Make no mistake - We will win this nomination! On to Ohio!" - Nelson Rockefeller

"This is not the performance we were looking for today. But this loss does not mean the end of the road for us. The Indiana Primary is coming up next, and we can win in that state, and maybe even in neighboring Ohio that same day. We are not dead. We are not dead. In Indiana, we will make our comeback!" - Dewey Bartlett

"The next primaries are in Indiana and Ohio on May 2nd. Indiana appears safe for Bartlett, and he must win it if he is to be a viable candidate for the nomination. Ohio appears capable of going for any of the three candidates, though it is easier to see it going for Rockefeller or Reagan than it is to see it going for Bartlett. After that, the map gets more favorable to Bartlett, with Tennessee holding its primary on May 4th, then North Carolina on May 6th, followed by Nebraska on May 9th."

Primary Standings

1st. Rockefeller - 3 wins (NH, WI, MA)
2nd. Reagan - 2 wins (FL, PA)
3rd. Bartlett - 1 win (IL)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

May 2, 1972



Bartlett: 45.7%
Reagan: 32.7%
Rockefeller: 21.6%

"No Surprise in Indiana. Bartlett wins by a comfortable but slightly narrower than expected 13 point margin."



Reagan: 35.6%
Bartlett: 32.3%
Rockefeller: 32.1%

"A clear disappointment for Rockefeller, who had a strong base in the urban areas of the state, but failed to sufficiently expand beyond it. He actually placed third in the contest, with Bartlett's coal country base that extended into parts of the northeast and center of the state narrowly beating out Rockefeller's urban coalition by .2%. Reagan won the balance of the state, including key victories in Lucas and Hamilton counties, and escaped with a three point victory. While Rockefeller is viewed as unlikely to drop out because of this performance given the fact that he is still tying Reagan in the overall standings, this does raise serious questions about the viability of Rockefeller's candidacy."

"Thank you! Thank you! This victory in Ohio only continues to show that the republican party does not want Mr. Rockefeller. They hate him through and through! I call on Rockefeller to do the right thing and concede the nomination now, so I can crush Bartlett in NC and put an end to this primary season! It is time for it to be done. It is clear now that I am going to be the nominee, so it is time for Rockefeller to acknowledge that fact. We congratulate Bartlett on his Indiana victory, but it was an expected victory and does nothing to enhance the strength of his candidacy. Mark my words, we are getting this nomination. No question about it - it is going to us!" - Ronald Reagan

"Nice Try, Mr. Reagan. We are not going to drop out! We are not doing it! Everyone on this stage and in the audience knows that we remain in a good position in the overall standings, and there are contests left to make up for what happened tonight. We will do what we can in North Carolina, but I am looking past that contest and to the contests in Maryland, Michigan, and Rhode Island later this month. We will win those contests and use those wins to propel us to the nomination!" - Nelson Rockefeller

"Thank you! Tonight, we easily won the primary in Indiana, and even beat the Rockefeller machine in Ohio! We did it! Our grassroots effort did it! No matter how much Reagan may think this race is over, it is not! It is not! In Tennessee, in North Carolina, in Nebraska, and even in Michigan, we will win! This nomination is going to us! Onward!" - Dewey Bartlett

Primary Standings

1st. Rockefeller - 3 wins (NH, WI, MA)
1st. Reagan - 3 wins (FL, PA, OH)
3rd. Bartlett - 2 wins (IL, IN)

"The next primaries are in Tennessee on May 4, North Carolina on May 6, and Nebraska on May 9. Tennessee is rated Likely Bartlett, North Carolina is a battleground more favorable to Bartlett and Reagan than it is to Rockefeller, and Nebraska is rated Safe Bartlett. Following that will be Maryland and Michigan on May 16th."

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

May 4


Bartlett: 48%
Reagan: 39%
Rockefeller: 13%

"The race in Tennessee tightened in the closing days, but in the end the expected winner emerged with a victory. Bartlett's strong performance in the rural areas of the state outran Reagan's urban coalition by a 9 point margin."

May 6



Bartlett: 39.5%
Reagan: 31.2%
Rockefeller: 29.3%

"While North Carolina was a target for all 3 campaigns, in the end Bartlett emerged with a suprisingly wide victory in the key primary state. He did very well in the rural areas of the state, winning many counties by double digits and he did "good enough" in the rest of the state. Meanwhile, unlike in Ohio and Pennsylvania, this time the urban part of the state split pretty evenly between Reagan and Rockefeller, and so it was not anywhere near enough to outrun Bartlett's rural base. This win is a clear revitalizer to the Bartlett campaign."

May 9



Bartlett: 60%
Rockefeller: 22.2%
Reagan: 17.8%

"No surprise in the state of Nebraska, as Bartlett sweeps nearly every county in the state."

--------

"Thank you! With these wins, we have revitalized our campaign and showed the establishment that we are not dead! These wins mean that we are going to win this nomination! We are going to win this nomination! Sure, the next few states are not the greatest for us, but we remain optimistic about our chances in the state of Michigan, and in June we can win New Mexico and South Dakota. Make no mistake, the Rockefeller and Reagan establishment is not going to win! We are going to win!" - Dewey Bartlett

"Our performances in all three states were disappointing, there is no doubt about that. But the next few states are extremely unfavorable to Bartlett, and we can and will beat Rockefeller in them. While Rhode Island is a lost cause for us, we are in a great position in Oregon, we are clearly in contention in Michigan, and we may even be able to manage a win in Maryland! Make no mistake - we are going to win!" - Ronald Reagan

"No Matter how much the media may beg me to drop out, I am not going to drop out. I am not going to do it. The primaries are not the final word for this nomination, and we are prepared to go to convention no matter how poorly I do during the remainder of this primary season. I've lost this nomination once already, in 1968, and I am not going to lose it again. In Maryland, we will win. In Rhode Island, we will win. And in Michigan, we will win!" - Nelson Rockefeller

Primary Standings

1st. Bartlett - 5 wins (IL, IN, TN, NC, NE)
2nd. Rockefeller - 3 wins (NH, WI, MA)
2nd. Reagan - 3 wins (FL, PA, OH)


"Only seven primaries remain in the 1972 presidential primary season. The next two will be held in Michigan, which is a Reagan-Rockefeller Battleground, and in Maryland, where Rockefeller is favored but not completely safe. Those two will take place on May 16th. Following that is Oregon on May 23rd, where Reagan is favored but not completely safe, and Rhode Island on the 23rd as well, which is considered completely safe for Rockefeller."

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

May 16




Rockefeller: 49%
Reagan: 39%
Bartlett: 12%

"Rockefeller achieved a much needed victory in the state of Maryland, dominating in the city of Baltimore, the county of Baltimore, and Montgomery County. He also easily won the populous counties of Prince George and Anne Arundel, and pulled off narrow victories in Charles, Calvert, and Howard Counties. Reagan attempted to make up for it in Frederick, Carroll, Harford and St. Mary Counties, as well as in the rural areas of the state, but it was nowhere near enough."



Rockefeller: 39.2%
Reagan: 38.6%
Bartlett: 22.2%

"But the real revitalizer to the Rockefeller campaign came in the state of Michigan. Reagan dominated the upper pennisula, winning every county there. But in the mainland of Michigan, Reagan's performance was insufficient for victory, due to Dewey Bartlett taking away a significant amount of votes and even counties that would have otherwise gone to Reagan. This allowed Rockefeller, with strength in the SE and North mainland, to get a much needed narrow victory, winning by less than 1%."


--------------------

"Thank you! Thank you! Tonight, we are alive again! We are alive again! It was a hard road, and many would have had us drop out rather than even try, but we tried, and we did it! We defeated the grassroots! We defeated the ultra-conservative movement within the republican party, in a hotly contested battleground state! We did it! This shows that we are going to win the nomination! We are going to win!" - Nelson Rockefeller

"This performance is slightly disappointing, but it is by no means an end to our campaign. We are not too far behind in the overall standings, and primaries are coming up in Oregon and California, places that we will win! We are hopeful about our chances in New Mexico as well! On to Victory" - Ronald Reagan

(Bartlett declines to make a speech)


Primary Standings

1st. Bartlett - 5 wins (IL, IN, TN, NC, NE)
1st. Rockefeller - 5 wins (NH, WI, MA, MD, MI)
3rd. Reagan - 3 wins (FL, PA, OH)

"Five Primaries remain. Oregon and Rhode Island on the 23rd of May, and then California, South Dakota, and New Mexico on June 6th. Oregon remains 'Likely Reagan', Rhode Island remains 'Safe Rockefeller'. California, the home state of Ronald Reagan, is considered safe for him. South Dakota is considered safe for Bartlett. New Mexico is currently rated 'Lean Reagan', with a Bartlett or Rockefeller upset considered well within the realms of possibility."

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Final Primaries

May 23



Reagan: 47%
Rockefeller: 35%
Bartlett: 18%

"Reagan wins the state of Oregon by 12 points. Rockefeller won the most urban areas of the state, but Reagan swept the rest."



Rockefeller: 71.4%
Reagan: 23.6%
Bartlett: 5%

"No surprise in the state of Rhode Island. Rockefeller wins in a huge landslide, sweeping every county."

June 6



Reagan: 56%
Rockefeller: 26%
Bartlett: 18%

"As expected, a big victory for Reagan in his home state of California, though he did lose several counties to Rockefeller."



Bartlett: 54.2%
Reagan: 29.2%
Rockefeller: 16.6%

"The results in South Dakota are also unsurprising. Bartlett gets a 25 point victory in the strongly rural state where a grassroots campaign is very powerful."



Reagan: 39.4%
Rockefeller: 32.5%
Bartlett: 28.1%

"In the only real battleground state of the final five primaries, the state of New Mexico, Bartlett was unable to expand enough beyond his rural base in the southern part of the state, and Rockefeller was unable to expand enough beyond his base in the state's most urban areas, and even narrowly lost one of the more populated counties, San Miguel County, to Mr. Reagan. Reagan won the balance of the state and earned a seven point victory."

---------------

"Thank you South Dakota! This key win at the end of the primary season only adds to the power that  our grassroots campaign has had throughout this primary season, and we are the ones who will win the nomination at the convention. We are going to do it! Not the Mr. Rockefeller, not Mr. Reagan, but us. We are the only option that does not cater to the establishment in the republican party, we are the people's choice for the nomination! On to Victory at the convention!" - Dewey Bartlett

"Thank you to the state of Rhode Island. Our performances in Oregon and New Mexico, states we thought we could win, did not live up to our expectations, but we end this primary season with more than enough wins to make a credible case for the nomination at the convention. I am the most reasonable candidate! The most electable candidate! The candidate endorsed by both a strong swath of primary voters and party officials! And we will win this nomination!" - Nelson Rockefeller

"Thank you California, New Mexico, and Oregon! After our loss in Michigan, we were written off, thrown to the stocks, cast off to the horizon, left for dead, but now we are surging and we are right back in the race with these three new wins! We are, as we always have been, a candidacy that can win this nomination! We should not go for the grassroots candidate or the party establishment candidate, we should go for someone who is a blend of both, and that's me! I'm the candidate who can please both parts! And I can win the general! On to the convention!" - Ronald Reagan

Final Primary Standings

1st. Reagan - 6 wins (FL, PA, OH, OR, CA, NM)
1st. Rockefeller - 6 wins (NH, WI, MA, MD, MI, RI)
1st. Bartlett - 6 wins (IL, IN, TN, NC, NE, SD)

"After all the twists and turns in a primary season that has divided the republican party, each of the three surviving candidates end up with the exact same number of state wins. This will certainly make for an interesting fight at the republican convention, which will take place from August 21-23."

Next Time: Legislative Update - Pres. Albert has successes and disappointments

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

January-July 1972 - Legislative Update

President Carl Albert, after having no success in 1971 beyond the easy passage of the 26th amendment to the U.S. Constitution (lowering voting age from 21 to 18), finally got some bills through the senate in 1972. Republicans were cautious about giving Albert anything to run on accomplishing, while the most conservative democrats frequently crossed party lines and voted with the republicans against the democratic agenda, allowing filibusters to stop legislation. However, after plenty of persistence, the creation of the EPA was passed on a surprisingly wide 298-137 House Vote and 66-34 Senate Vote in Late April, largely because it was tied to the end of the military draft, which was popular across party lines. Earth Day was also created within the bill, however this was successfully kept extremely under the radar and passed off as an earmark for a few unknown congressmen whenever it was brought up.

Passing through on a nearly party line 265-170 House Vote and 60-40 Senate Vote on June 5 was a readjustment of defense spending to levels before the Vietnam War. Also, The Clean Air Act passed on July 14, tucked fairly secretly within a mandatory appropriations bill for Fiscal 1973. The bill it was contained in passed with a 280-155 House Vote and a 62-38 Senate Vote.

However, proposals to lower the eligibility age for Medicare and SS failed, as well as proposals to increase payroll and income taxes. Also, banning interracial marriage by constitutional amendment came up for a vote again in the senate as a means of garnering a 60th vote for the defense spending cut, but while it came closer than expected to passing, it still came 10 votes short of the needed 2/3 majority.

-----------------------

Albert Approval and GE Matchups - July 31, 1972

Approve - 52%
Disapprove - 45%

Albert 49, Bartlett 42
Albert 47, Reagan 42
Albert 47, Rockefeller 43

----------

Next - A look at Gubernatorial and Senate Races
After - Republican VP Selections

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

August 1, 1972 - A Look at Senate Races

Democrats already hold a 59-41 Majority and hold a slight advantage in terms of the map going into the upcoming senate elections. There are 12 republican seats considered not safe and 9 democratic seats considered not safe.

Key Races in alphabetical order:

Colorado: Republican Sen. Gordon Allott is running for reelection against Democrat Floyd Haskell.

Polling:

Allott: 45%
Haskell: 43%

Delaware: Republican Sen. Caleb Boggs is running for reelection against Democrat Joe Biden.

Polling:

Boggs: 47%
Biden: 46%

Georgia: Democratic Sen. David Gambrell lost renomination to Democrat Sam Nunn. Nunn faces Republican Fletcher Thompson in the general election.

Polling:

Nunn: 49%
Thompson: 43%

Idaho: Republican Sen. Leonard Jordan is retiring. Republican James McClure and Democrat William Davis are contesting the open seat.

Polling:

McClure: 48%
Davis: 41%

Illinois: Republican Sen. Robert Blair is running for reelection against Democrat Roman Pucinski

Polling:

Blair: 49%
Pucinski: 41%

Iowa: Republican Sen. Jack Miller is running for reelection against Democrat Dick Clark

Polling:

Clark: 46%
Miller: 39%

Kentucky: Republican Sen. John Cooper is retiring. Democrat Walter Huddleston and Republican Louie Nunn are contesting the open seat.

Polling:

Huddleston: 46%
Nunn: 46%

Maine: Republican Sen. Margaret Smith is running for reelection against Democrat William Hathaway.

Polling:

Hathaway: 47%
Smith: 44%

Michigan: Republican Sen. Robert Griffin is running for reelection against Democrat Frank Kelley

Polling:

Griffin: 47%
Kelley: 43%

Minnesota: Democratic Sen. Walter Mondale is running for reelection against Republican Phil Hanson.

Polling:

Mondale: 52%
Hanson: 41%

Montana: Democratic Sen. Lee Metcalf is running for reelection against Republican Henry Hibbard.

Polling:

MetCalf: 46%
Hibbard: 45%

Nebraska: Republican Sen. Carl Curtis is running for reelection against Democrat Terry Carpenter

Polling:

Curtis: 47%
Carpenter: 42%

New Hampshire: Democratic Sen. Thomas McIntyre is running for reelection against Republican Wesley Powell.

Polling:

McIntyre: 52%
Powell: 42%

New Mexico: Democratic Sen. Clinton Anderson is retiring. Democrat Jack Daniels and Republican Pete Dominici are contesting the general election.

Polling:

Dominici: 46%
Daniels: 43%

North Carolina: Democratic Sen. Everett Jordan is retiring. Democrat Nick Galifanakis and Republican Jesse Helms are contesting the general election.

Polling:

Helms: 48%
Galifanakis: 43%

Oklahoma: Democratic Sen. Fred Harris is running for reelection against Republican Pat Patterson.

Polling:

Harris: 46%
Patterson: 44%

Oregon: Republican Sen. Mark Hatfield is running for reelection against Democrat Wayne Morse.

Polling:

Hatfield: 48%
Morse: 40%

Rhode Island: Democratic Sen. Claiborne Pell is running for reelection against Republican John Chafee.

Polling:

Pell: 48%
Chafee: 42%

South Dakota: Republican Sen. Karl Mundt is retiring. Democrat James Abouresk and Republican Robert Hirsch are contesting the general election.

Polling:

Abouresk: 50%
Hirsch: 39%

Tennessee: Republican Sen. Bill Jenkins lost renomination to Former Republican Sen. Howard Baker, who mounted the primary challenge at the end of his presidential bid. Baker faces only token opposition in the general election.

Texas: Republican Sen. John Tower is running for reelection against Democrat Barefoot Sanders.

Polling:

Tower: 50%
Sanders: 40%

Virginia: Democratic Sen. William Spong is running for reelection against Republican William Scott.

Polling:

Scott: 47%
Spong: 44%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

August 1, 1972 - A Look at Gubernatorial Races

Democrats currently hold a 35-15 majority, but this map puts them at a slight disadvantage. Democrats have 8 vulnerable seats to the Republicans' 6.

Key Races in alphabetical order:

Delaware: Republican Gov. Russell Peterson is running for reelection against Democrat Sherman Tribbitt.

Polling:

Tribbitt: 47%
Peterson: 46%

Illinois: Republican Gov. Richard Ogilvie is running for reelection against Democrat Dan Walker.

Polling:

Ogilvie: 46%
Walker: 46%

Indiana: Republican Gov. Edgar Whitcomb is retiring. Democrat Matthew Welsh and Republican Otis Bowen are contesting the general election.

Polling:

Bowen: 51%
Welsh: 40%

Iowa: Democratic Gov. Robert Fulton is running for reelection against Former Republican Gov. Robert Ray in a rematch of the 1970 election.

Polling:

Ray: 47%
Fulton: 44%

Missouri: Democratic Gov. Warren Hearnes is retiring. Democrat Edward Doud and Republican Kit Bond are contesting the general election.

Polling:

Bond: 50%
Doud: 40%

Montana: Democratic Gov. Forrest Anderson is retiring. Democrat Thomas Judge and Republican Ed Smith are contesting the general election.

Polling:

Judge: 47%
Smith: 42%

New Hampshire: Democratic Gov. Roger Crowley is running for reelection against Republican Meldrim Thomson and Independent Malcolm McLane.

Polling:

Crowley: 39%
Thomson: 37%
McLane: 16%

North Carolina: Democratic Gov. Robert Scott is retiring. Democrat Hargrove Bowles and Republican James HolsHouser are contesting the general election.

Polling:

HolsHouser: 45%
Bowles: 45%

North Dakota: Democratic Gov. William Guy is retiring. Democrat Arthur Link and Republican Richard Larsen are contesting the general election.

Polling:

Larsen: 46%
Link: 44%

Rhode Island: Democratic Gov. Frank Licht is retiring. Democrat Phillip Noel and Republican Herbert DeSimone are contesting the general election.

Polling:

Noel: 47%
DeSimone: 43%

Texas: Democratic Gov. Preston Smith lost renomination to Democrat Dolph Briscoe. Briscoe faces Republican Henry Grover in the general election.

Polling:

Briscoe: 44%
Grover: 43%

Vermont: Republican Gov. Deane Davis is retiring. Democrat Thomas Salmon and Republican Luther Hackett are contesting the general election.

Polling:

Salmon: 49%
Hackett: 40%

Washington: Republican Gov. Daniel Evans is running for reelection against Democrat Albert Rossellini.

Polling:

Evans: 47%
Rossellini: 39%

West Virginia: Republican Gov. Arch Moore is running for reelection against Democrat Jay Rockefeller.

Polling:

Moore: 48%
Rockefeller: 41%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

August 7, 1972 - Dewey Bartlett chooses Former U.S. Rep. and 1970 TX Senate Nominee George H.W. Bush as his running mate

August 10, 1972 - Ronald Reagan chooses Former Michigan Gov. George Romney as his running mate

August 17, 1972 - Nelson Rockefeller chooses New Jersey Sen. Clifford Case as his running mate


Next - GE Prediction Maps for all three candidates
After - Republican National Convention

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

August 18, 1972 EV Predictions:

Albert/Barrett vs. Bartlett/Bush

Albert: 228
Bartlett: 181
Toss-Up: 129

President Albert begins with the advantage over the most conservative of the republicans' options, Mr. Bartlett. Bartlett's southern roots and running mate give him a starting advantage in most of the south, aside from TX and FL. However, his place within the political spectrum gives Albert the starting advantage in the important swing states of California, Michigan, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania.  This map is a winnable one for Republicans, with Albert well short of 270, but it is the hardest one of the three.

Albert/Barrett vs. Reagan/Romney

Reagan: 213
Albert: 117
Toss-Up: 208

Despite Reagan having CA close to locked up due to his home state advantage, and being far more secure than Bartlett in OR, WA, and NM, this map is known for its competitive races. Albert polls much better in the south in this matchup than he does against Bartlett, but the flip side of that is that Reagan puts MI, PA, and NJ clearly in play, and even has a silm chance at Maine. With over 200 electoral votes in play, this map is more than capable of turning into a landslide for either side.

Albert/Barrett vs. Rockefeller/Case

Rockefeller: 222
Albert: 138
Toss-Up: 178

The Rockefeller map is not all that different from the Reagan map. The west coast joins the battlegrounds while Michigan starts with an Albert Advantage and Ohio and New Jersey start with a Rockefeller advantage. Rockefeller also has a silm chance at his home state should 1972 be a landslide for him.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Republican National Convention Delegate Allocation/Voting:

To keep things simple, and because I was not able to find exact delegate allocation rules/numbers for 1972, here is how the convention balloting will be handled.

1. All the states that held primaries shall allocate their delegates to candidates proportionally based on the statewide result. All delegates from non-primary states are unpledged and may vote for whomever they choose.

2. For the first ballot only, all the primary states will announce their votes via a roll call, with their delegates voting according to the candidate each delegate is pledged to vote for based on the statewide result. Each primary state will receive delegates according to the formula below; I will not try to work out delegate numbers for the other states. All other balloting, including non-primary state voting during the 1st ballot, shall be simply submitted via a paper ballot and not directly announced.

3. Assuming that there is no majority on the first ballot, subsequent ballots shall take place in which all delegates are unpledged. Continue holding ballot after ballot until either a majority is reached or the third place candidate is at least 50 delegates behind the second place candidate. (Take breaks between ballots as necessary to work out backroom deals) If the latter situation is what happens, then eliminate the third place candidate and hold a final vote between the top two candidates. The winner of this vote, even if abstentions keep it from being a majority, shall win the nomination.

Primary State Delegate Allocation Formula:

State EVs *
1.5 if the state voted for Humphrey or Wallace in 1968 OR
* 2 if the state voted for Nixon in 1968
Round up to the nearest whole delegate

So, here's the number of delegates each primary state will get:

NH: 8
FL: 34
IL: 52
WI: 22
MA: 21
PA: 41
IN: 26
OH: 50
TN: 15
NC: 20
NE: 10
MD: 15
MI: 32
OR: 12
RI: 6
CA: 90
NM: 8
SD: 8

Total Pledged Delegates: 470 (35% of total delegates) from 18 states
Total UnPledged Delegates: 878 (65% of total delegates) from 32 states + D.C.

The next post will be an overview of the convention's pre-voting days, the post after that will be the actual balloting for the republican nomination, then:

- September Polling
- Debates
- Final Polling
- General Election