Fresh Starts

[NHI]

7:00 pm EST

"A long presidential contest, an exciting presidential contest with more turns and surprises than a movie thriller, now comes down to this: Election Night, '92. I'm Dan Rather and here is what can report at this time."

Closing:

Indiana: Too Close to Call (Perot in the lead with 39% of the vote, Clinton at 38%, Bush at 22%)
Virginia: Too Close to Call (Clinton in lead with 43% of the vote, Perot at 35%, Bush at 21%).
Kentucky: Too Close to Call (Clinton in lead with 42% of the vote, Bush at 35%, Perot at 22%).
South Carolina: Too Close to Call (Bush in lead with 39% of the vote, Clinton at 34%, Perot at 26%).
Georgia: Too Close to Call (Clinton in lead with 40% of the vote, Bush at 33% of the vote, Perot at 26%).
Vermont: Too Close to Call (Clinton in lead with 40% of the vote, Perot at 33% and Bush at 26%)

1992 Presidential Election: Results <1% Reported

Ross Perot: 41.9% (0 EV)

Bill Clinton: 39.8% (0 EV)

George Bush: 18.3% (0 EV)

7:12 pm EST

Vermont: √ Clinton (3)

The first state on the map, the generally reliably Republican stronghold has broken its trend, voting for a Democrat, for the first time since 1964. Bill Clinton wins the state with 40% of the vote.

1992 Presidential Election: Results <1% Reported

Bill Clinton: 39.9% (3 EV)

Ross Perot: 37.5% (0 EV)

George Bush: 21.6% (0 EV)

[NHI]

7:30 pm

"The polls have now closed in three more states: North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia." At this time we can project that Governor Clinton will win the state of West Virginia." -- Dan Rather

West Virginia (5): √ Clinton

Clinton: 48.0%
Bush: 29.8%
Perot: 21.2%

1992 Presidential Election: Results

Bill Clinton: 43.9% (8 EV)

Ross Perot: 29.3% (0 EV)

George Bush: 25.7% (O EV)

North Carolina: Too Close to Call

Bill Clinton: 40.0%

George Bush: 34.8%

Ross Perot: 24.2%

Ohio: Too Close to Call

Bill Clinton: 37.7%

Ross Perot: 33.6%

George Bush: 27.7%

"Ohio is a must win for any candidate, but especially for George Bush, as no Republican has won the White House without winning Ohio and now with 1% reported, Mr. Bush is trailing in third place, exactly ten points behind Governor Clinton." -- Dan Rather

8:00 pm EST

Closing:

Alabama: Too Close to Call (Clinton in lead with 38% of the vote, Bush at 35% of the vote, Perot at 26%
Delaware: Too Close to Call (Clinton in lead with 38% of the vote, Perot with 32% of the vote, Bush at 29%).
Florida: Too Close to Call (Clinton in lead with 36% of the vote, Perot with 33% of the vote, Bush at 30%).
Illinois: Too Close to Call (Perot in lead with 35% of the vote, Clinton with 34% of the vote, Bush with 30%).
Maine: Too Close to Call (Perot in lead with 38% of the vote, Clinton with 33% of the vote, Bush with 28%).
Missouri: Too Close to Call: (Clinton in lead with 40% of the vote, Perot with 31% of the vote, Bush with 28%).
Mississippi: Too Close to Call (Clinton in the lead with 38% of the vote, Bush with 32% of the vote, Perot with 29%).
New Hampshire: Too Close to Call (Perot in lead with 37% of the vote, Clinton with 33% of the vote, Bush with 29%).
Oklahoma: Too Close to Call (Bush in lead with 41% of the vote, Clinton with 34% of the vote, Perot with 24%).
Pennsylvania: Too Close to Call (Clinton in lead with 39% of the vote, Perot with 33% of the vote, Bush with 27%).
Tennessee: Too Close to Call (Clinton in lead with 39% of the vote, Bush with 35% of the vote, Perot with 25%).

"We are able to make the following projection now:

Connecticut: (8 ) √ Clinton

√ Clinton: 46.6%
Bush: 29.7%
Perot: 22.7%

Maryland: (10) √ Clinton

√ Clinton: 48.1%
Perot: 29.6%
Bush: 21.3%

Massachusetts: (12) √ Clinton

√ Clinton: 50.6%
Perot: 25.0%
Bush: 23.3%

New Jersey: (15) √ Clinton

√ Clinton: 45.1%
Perot: 28.8%
Bush: 25.1%

Rhode Island: (4) √ Clinton

√ Clinton: 49.9%
Perot: 24.9%
Bush: 24.2%

Washington, DC (3) √ Clinton

√ Clinton: 90.1%

Bush: 5.0%

Perot: 4.8%

"A healthy lead for Governor Clinton, in both the electoral and popular vote, and to add we can project Bill Clinton will carry the state of Georgia, another state from Mr. Bush from four years ago. It votes for the Democratic candidate for the first time in twelve years." -- Dan Rather

Georgia: (13) √ Clinton

√ Clinton: 40.1%

Bush: 32.0%

Perot: 26.9%

1992 Presidential Election Results:

Bill Clinton: 50.9% (73 EV)

Ross Perot: 24.1% (0 EV)

George Bush: 24.0% (0 EV)

"We can now make a major projection, rather a historic one in fact. Mr. Perot, we project by estimation will carry the pivotal and all important primary state of New Hampshire. New Hampshire will be won by Ross Perot." -- Dan Rather

New Hampshire: (4) √ Perot

√ Perot: 39.9%
Clinton: 31.9%
Bush: 27.2%

1992 Presidential Election Results:

Bill Clinton: 50.6% (73 EV)

Ross Perot: 25.7% (4 EV)

George Bush: 24.4% (0 EV)

[NHI]

Arkansas: (6) √ Clinton

√ Clinton: 51.7%

Bush: 28.0%
Perot: 19.3%

"...Governor Clinton has won his home state of Arkansas." -- Dan Rather

Presidential Election Results:

Bill Clinton: 49.1% (92 EV)

Ross Perot: 25.3% (4 EV)

George Bush: 24.9% (0 EV)

"Governor Clinton continues to expand on his lead, having won the state of Virginia, the first Democrat to carry the state since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. While it is still early and there are a great many more states to call, Bill Clinton is certainly in the driver's seat on this election night." -- Dan Rather

Oklahoma: (8 ) √ George Bush

√ Bush: 40.9%

Clinton: 34.8%
Perot: 23.3%

1992 Presidential Election Results:

Bill Clinton: 48.6% (92 EV)

George Bush: 26.0% (8 EV)

Ross Perot: 24.4% (4 EV)

"We have just projected Oklahoma for the Bush-Quayle ticket, the President is on the map for the first time tonight, certainly a sigh of relief for the ticket, and it is now clear that we can also project the President the winner in South Carolina."

South Carolina: (8 ) √ Bush

√ Bush: 39.5%
Clinton: 35.2%
Perot: 24.3%

1992 Presidential Election Results:

Bill Clinton: 47.6% (92 EV)

George Bush: 26.9% (16 EV)

Ross Perot: 24.9% (4 EV)

"There is the electoral map. Governor Clinton holding onto his lead in the electoral college and popular vote, but President Bush, clearly in the fight for his political life this evening, coming back from behind, now running for second to Governor Clinton. His campaign predicted a come from behind strategy, an upset like Dewey beats Truman in 1948, we will see tonight if that rings true for President George Bush." -- Dan Rather

Maine: (1) √ Perot

√ Perot: 35.5%
Clinton: 34.1%
Bush: 29.8%

"Ross Perot, on the board again. This time taking the second congressional district from the state of Maine. Now Maine awards their electoral votes proportionally by district and while we cannot project who has won the overall state or the first district, we can project at least in the second district that Ross Perot is the winner.

and it appears we can now project the state of Delaware for Governor Bill Clinton. Delaware has voted with the winner in every Presidential election, so this is a major victory for the Governor of Arkansas this evening."

Delaware: (3) √ Clinton

√ Clinton: 37.1%
Perot: 34.6%
Bush: 27.7%

1992 Presidential Election Results:

Clinton: 46.9% (95 EV)

Bush: 27.0% (16 EV)

Perot: 25.9% (5 EV)

9:00 pm EST

Closings:

Arizona: Too Close to Call (Perot in lead with 35% of the vote, Clinton with 33% of the vote, Bush with 31%).
Colorado: Too Close to Call (Perot in lead with 34% of the vote, Clinton with 33% of the vote, Bush with 32%).
Kansas: Too Close to Call (Bush in lead with 36% of the vote, Clinton with 34% of the vote, Perot with 29%).
Louisiana: Too Close to Call (Clinton in lead with 40% of the vote, Bush with 36% of the vote, Perot with 23%).
Michigan: Too Close to Call (Clinton in the lead with 39% of the vote, Perot with 31% of the vote, Bush with 29%).
Minnesota: Too Close to Call (Clinton with 42% of the vote, Perot with 36% of the vote, Bush with 21% of the vote).
Nebraska: Too Close to Call (Perot with 40% of the vote, Clinton with 30% of the vote, Bush with 29% of the vote).
New Mexico: Too Close to Call (Clinton with 37% of the vote, Perot with 33% of the vote, Bush with 29%).
South Dakota: Too Close to Call (Perot with 38% of the vote, Clinton with 31% of the vote, Bush with 29% of the vote).
Texas: Too Close to Call (Bush with 37% of the vote, Perot with 33% of the vote, Clinton with 29% of the vote).
Wisconsin: Too Close to Call (Clinton with 38% of the vote, Bush with 32% of the vote, Perot with 29%).
Wyoming: Too Close to Call (Perot with 43% of the vote, Bush with 36% of the vote, Clinton with 20% of the vote).

New York: (33) √ Clinton

√ Clinton: 50.0%
Perot: 25.6%
Bush: 23.4%

1992 Presidential Election Results:

Clinton: 47.1% (128 EV)

Bush: 26.7% (16 EV)

Perot: 26.0% (5 EV)

[NHI]

9:59 pm EST

"We are preparing to make another set of projection, but here is where the map stands at this hour on the east coast. Governor Clinton in the lead." -- Dan Rather

1992 Presidential Election Results:

Bill Clinton: 45.7% (199 EV)

George Bush: 27.1 (16 EV)

Ross Perot: 27.0% (10 EV)

10:00 pm EST

Closings:

Montana: Too Close to Call: (Perot in the lead with 39% of the vote, Bush with 34% of the vote, Clinton with 26% of the vote).

Nevada: Too Close to Call: (Perot in the lead with 37% of the vote, Clinton with 34% of the vote, Bush with 28%).

Iowa: (7) √ Clinton

√ Clinton: 41.9%

Bush: 30.2%
Perot: 26.9%

Utah: (5) √ Bush

√ Bush: 48.5%
Perot: 30.1%
Clinton: 20.4%

1992 Presidential Election Results:

Bill Clinton: 45.1% (206 EV)

George Bush: 28.0% (21 EV)

Ross Perot: 26.7% (10 EV)

States Uncalled:

Ohio:

Clinton: 35.8%

Perot: 34.1%

Bush: 29.9%

Florida:

Clinton: 34.2%

Bush: 33.3%

Perot: 32.1%

Illinois:

Bush: 33.7%

Clinton: 33.2%

Perot: 32.1%

Alabama:

Bush: 37.7%
Clinton: 35.0%
Perot: 26.9%

Mississippi:

Clinton: 38.1%

Bush: 36.5%

Perot: 26.0%

Tennessee:

Clinton: 38.1%

Bush: 37.6%

Perot: 23.9%

Texas:

Bush: 37.5%
Perot: 31.6%
Clinton: 30.4%

Colorado:

Perot: 34.1%

Clinton: 34.0%

Bush: 31.5%

Arizona:

Perot: 36.9%

Clinton: 33.2%
Bush: 29.6%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Projection: √ 10:08 pm EST

Michigan: (18) √ Clinton

√ Clinton: 40.0%

Perot: 30.8%

Bush: 29.0%

"Bill Clinton wins Michigan. Another Bush state from four years ago goes for the Democratic nominee. CBS is now calling the state of Kentucky, Kentucky will be won by Bill Clinton." -- Dan Rather.

Kentucky (8 ) √ Clinton

√ Clinton: 40.4%

Bush: 35.9%
Perot: 23.5%

1992 Presidential Election Results:

Bill Clinton: 45.0% (232 EV)

George Bush: 27.7% (21 EV)

Ross Perot: 27.1% (10 EV)

"Governor Clinton continues to build on his lead, over President Bush and Ross Perot. Now looking at the map and remaining states, Governor Clinton is 38 votes shy of the 270 needed to become President of the United States. Now this is by no means a done deal, there are many states left to be called and many states that are still voting in the west, but as the map stands at this hour the electoral math for George Bush and even Ross Perot becomes difficult." -- Dan Rather

10:46 pm EST

South Dakota: (3) √ Perot

√ Perot: 39.0%

Clinton: 31.7%
Bush: 29.1%

Texas (32) √ Bush

√ Bush: 38.2%

Perot: 31.6%
Clinton: 29.9%

"Two more states. One for Mr. Perot and one for President Bush. South Dakota will be won by Ross Perot and George Bush will fend off Ross Perot to win his home state, but will it be enough. Here is the map at now ten minutes to eleven." -- Dan Rather

1992 Presidential Election Results:

Bill Clinton: 43.1% (233 EV)

George Bush: 29.6% (62 EV)

Ross Perot: 27.0% (13 EV)

"President Bush, starting to gain a little ground, but still a long way to go -- and it now appears we can project the state of Louisiana for Governor Clinton. Governor Clinton now 28 delegates away from the number 270. Stay tuned." -- Dan Rather

Louisiana: (9) √ Clinton

√ Clinton: 39.2%
Bush: 35.9%
Perot: 24.6%

[OnlyAlb]

You have some of the best timelines on this site. I'm enjoying this one but feeling sad for Bush.

[NHI]

1992 Presidential Election Results:

Bill Clinton: 42.2% (253 EV)

George Bush: 28.9% (63 EV)

Ross Perot: 28.7% (24 EV)

"Coming up on the eleven o'clock hour and Governor Clinton is at 253 electoral college votes, President Bush at 63 and Ross Perot at 24. We have been able to declare Mr. Perot the winner in Arizona and Montana bring his total now to six states, a truly impressive showing for a third party candidate, already he is surpassed Teddy Roosevelt, in 1912 in terms of popular votes won. For the President, a disappointing turn of events someone who just a year and half ago enjoyed a public approval rating near 90 percent." -- Dan Rather

Projection: √ Clinton Wins

"By CBS' estimation, at this hour we can project Governor Clinton is now President-elect of the United States. He carries the state of Ohio and thus has gone over the top and will be the 42nd President of our United States." -- Dan Rather

1992 Presidential Election Results:

√ Bill Clinton: 42.3% (274 EV)

George Bush: 28.9% (63 EV)

Ross Perot: 28.7% (24 EV)

"Adding to our projection, we now can call the state of Tennessee for Clinton, bring his total now to 285 electoral votes, and it appears that number will continue to grow, it is now eleven o'clock on the east coat and we can project Bill Clinton will win the state of Hawaii and the state of Washington. We are unable to project a winner in the states of California, Oregon, or Idaho." -- Dan Rather

North Dakota: (3) √ Perot

√ Perot: 41.6%

Clinton: 29.9%
Bush: 27.5%

California: Too Close to Call (Clinton in the lead with 39% of the vote, Perot with 31% of the vote, Bush with 29%).
Oregon: Too Close to Call (Clinton in the lead with 37% of the vote, Perot with 34% of the vote and Bush with 28%).
Idaho: Too Close to Call (Bush in the lead with 41% of the vote, Perot with 39% of the vote, Clinton with 19%).
North Dakota: (Perot in the lead with 44% of the vote, Clinton with 29% of the vote, Bush with 26%).

"A few states left to call, but by our estimation, Bill Clinton of Arkansas has won the Presidential election, defeating George Bush and Ross Perot." -- Dan Rather

Bush Concedes To Clinton

Weighted by a weak economy and two general election opponents, following a bitter primary battle with Pat Buchanan, President George Bush conceded to President-Elect Bill Clinton in the early morning hour of November 4th. Bush was gracious in his speech, thanking his family and extending his best wishes to The Clinton Family. "He ran a smart, tough campaign and the people of America have spoken and we accept the majesty of the Democratic process." By early estimate, Bush suffered the worst defeat of an incumbent President since William Howard Taft in 1912 (also a three person race) and looks poised to finish a dismal third place; a rather sad end for an aristocrat of politics, in a career that saw him first as a congressman and later ambassador and director of the CIA to Vice President for eight years and ultimately President of the United States. "It has been such an honor to serve you for the past four years and I thank you from the bottom of my heart."

Perot Concedes to Clinton, but finishes Second

Despite losing the Presidential Election, Ross Perot finished second place to Bill Clinton, making it the best showing for a third party candidate since Theodore Roosevelt's campaign in 1912. Perot thanked his supporters and spoke about their impact in the race. "We've shaken things up dramatically and the country is better for it. More people voted than at any time in our nation's history and I'll tell you this we ain't finished yet." Perot hinted at a possible '96 bid, but did pledge to support President-Elect Clinton and wished him well.

Clinton: It is time for a New Beginning

President-Elect Bill Clinton won a decisive victory in the electoral college and popular vote on Election Night. He outpaced second place finisher Ross Perot and soundly defeated President Bush who finished a shocking third place in the popular vote. Clinton pledge a fresh start for America and that with his election "change had come and the American people are ready to start moving again." Clinton aides acknowledge, despite their candidate's lopsided electoral college victory, the popular vote was still relatively close with Clinton only capturing 41 percent of the vote, and despite Democratic majorities in Congress, the President-Elect's team stated he intends to work with both sides in order to find common ground and help tackle the challenges facing America.

1992 Presidential Election Results:

√ Bill Clinton: 41.1% (434 EV)

George Bush: 28.2% (63 EV)

Ross Perot: 30.0% (41 EV)

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

Poor George. Interested to see what '96 will bring. A Reform party that isn't a complete joke?

[NHI]

Pat Buchanan Declares Second Bid for President

Steve Forbes Announces Bid for President

Pete Wilson Looks to Take up Establishment Mantle, Announces Run in '96

Dan Quayle is Running for President

Dark horse Bill Weld Declares his Candidacy in Boston

He's Back! Ross Perot Looks to Shake up '96 Race with a New Party

1996 Republican Primary Poll: 1995

Dan Quayle: 19%
Pat Buchanan: 16%
Pete Wilson: 10%
Steve Forbes: 7%
Bill Weld: 3%
Other/Undecided: 45%

Gingrich: I'm too Busy running Washington and Won't Run

Citing age and health Bob Dole Rules out a Presidential Run

Despite Intense Speculation and Pressure Colin Powell Decides Against Run

The Clinton Presidency: First Term

- First Woman, Janet Reno Nominated to serve as Attorney General
- Implementation of Don't Ask, Don't Tell
- Signed into law Family Medical Leave Act, Brady Bill
- Reform of Health Care; Signed into Law: Patient Affordable Care Act, AKA Clinton-Care
- Ratification of NAFTA
- Appointment of Ruth Bader Ginsburg to Supreme Court
- Republicans Regain Control of Congress in 1994, Newt Gingrich becomes Speaker of the House
- Clinton's lowest approval rating 42% July 1994
- Government Shutdown in 1995, Republican Take the Blame.

[NHI]

The Man to Beat?

Pat Buchanan, insurgent challenger to George Bush four years ago, nearly snatched the Republican nomination from the incumbent President, and now four years later he's running again and this time he's in the lead. Buchanan ran his insurgency campaign on a shoestring budget, but relied heavily on grassroots support, which propelled him to victory in New Hampshire and then onto win 16 more contests. Buchanan is now banking on rallying the grassroots base of his party to victory -- only this time for the Republican Nomination.

Though he leads most national and early primary polls, the Republican electorate is still divided over their likely nominee. Perceived frontrunner Bob Dole, who ruled out a run created a vacuum the candidate in the race have yet to fill. Buchanan argues he falls into the Republican model of the runner up from the previous primary, going onto win the nomination, but other Republicans including long shot Bill Weld say, not so fast. For Buchanan and Weld for that matter their candidacies hinge on success or failure in New Hampshire. Both men are working the state hard, knowing all well that the first in the nation primary will likely decide their political fates.

Gallup Tracking Poll: Buchanan v Clinton

Clinton: 52%

Buchanan: 39%

Gallup Tracking Poll: Weld v Clinton

Clinton: 55%

Weld: 32%

Gallup Tracking Poll: Forbes v Clinton

Clinton: 55%

Forbes: 30%

Gallup Tracking Poll: Quayle v Clinton

Clinton: 50%

Quayle: 41%

Gallup Tracking Poll: Wilson v. Clinton

Clinton: 50%

Wilson: 40%

Gallup Tracking Poll: Republican Nomination

Buchanan: 22%

Quayle: 18%
Wilson: 14%
Forbes: 8%
Weld: 7%
Undecided/Other: 31%

John McCain Jumps into Presidential Race

Dissatisfied with the Republican field, and eager as he put it "to wage a campaign on the issue and take the [Republican] party back from the extremist Arizona Senator John McCain announced his campaign for President in Portsmouth, NH, home to the Nation's First in the Nation Primary. John McCain announced his candidacy, presenting himself as a 'straight talker' ready to bring 'common sense' and 'pragmatism' to the table and 'actually lead in Washington'. McCain's entrance into the field is seen is a small shakeup, though he is considered a dark horse, though McCain is content with the title. "This field is unsettled, anyone of us has a shot to win the nomination, so I thought why not me? I have a compelling story and background, I bring a different perspective. I can lead this country, I'm jumping in. So we'll see."

Bill Weld Drops out, Endorse McCain

Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld, ended his campaign, citing poor polling and fundraising and backed Senator John McCain at a joint event in Peterborough, NH. Weld, was seen as a long shot for the Republican nomination and while he staked his campaign on New Hampshire, a disjointed campaign infrastructure and lack of messaging doomed his chances. Weld is reportedly considering challenging Senator John Kerry in the 1996 Senate Race in Massachusetts, but has not confirmed or denied the report. McCain was gracious in accepting the endorsement of Weld and continued his three-day tour of New Hampshire.

Quayle: the Establishment Pick

Bob Dole's decision not to run made an opening for Dan Quayle, who quickly looked to lockup fundraisers and key party officials behind his campaign. Having received the backing of former President and old running mate George Bush, Quayle also received the endorsement of Governor George Bush, as wells key Congressional leaders including Majority Leader Trent Loft, and former Chief of Staff and Governor John Sununu. Despite the rounds of endorsement, Buchanan still leads Quayle in most national polls, though the former Vice President is hoping a win in Iowa will propel him on a path to the nomination.

Republican Nomination Poll: December 1995

Buchanan: 22%
Quayle: 19%
McCain: 15%
Forbes: 12%
Wilson: 10%
Undecided/Other: 22%

Iowa Caucuses: Poll December 1995

Quayle: 25%
Buchanan: 24%
Forbes: 17%
McCain: 9%
Wilson: 5%
Undecided: 17%

Clinton Banks on Republican Dysfunction to Propel Him to 2nd Term

Buchanan Wins Early Straw polls; Forbes Defies Expectations

January 29th: Alaska Caucus (non-binding)

√ Pat Buchanan: 49%

Steve Forbes: 46%
Dan Quayle: 2%
John McCain: -
Peter Wilson: -
Other: 1%

February 6: Louisiana Caucus (Non-Binding)

√ Pat Buchanan: 51%
Steve Forbes: 48%
Dan Quayle: -
John McCain: -
Peter Wilson: -
Other: 1%

Pat Buchanan was the clear winner in the Alaska and Louisiana Caucus, though both are non-binding and no delegates were awarded, But for Buchanan the winner seemed to project an image of confidence as the campaign heads into the real contests in later February. None of the major candidates competed in the straw polls, though surprisingly businessman Steve Forbes defied expectations and finished with a commanding second place, and taking 46 percent of the vote in the Alaska Caucus, and 48 percent in the Louisiana Caucus, forcing pundits to reevaluate his candidacy and chances.

Iowa Caucuses: 1996

Forbes Upsets Quayle to Win Iowa Caucuses

√ Steve Forbes: 30.4% (11)

Dan Quayle: 28.5% (10)

Pat Buchanan: 19.9% (3)
John McCain: 14.8% (1)
Peter Wilson: 3.9%
Other: 2.9%

Steve Forbes, won a narrow victory over former Vice President Dan Quayle, beating Quayle in the first contests of the 1996 Republican Primary. Forbes invested early in the state, spending nearly $3.9 million dollars on advertising, while many political pundits are shocked by the surprise upset, Forbes staff allude to Forbes' recent strong showings in the Alaska and Louisiana Straw poll and the famous Ames Straw poll in August, where Forbes finished ahead of Pat Buchanan with 26% of the vote. Quayle, who banked on a win in Iowa won the straw poll back in August with 34 percent and was seen as the clear favorite, his loss sets back his campaign heading into New Hampshire, where Buchanan leads the former Vice President 31 to 27 percent, though with Forbes' upset the Republican primary has been turned on its head, proving once again the nomination is anyone's at this point.

[NHI]

Quayle on the Ropes in NH

Former Vice President Quayle is in the fight for his political life. After finishing second to Steve Forbes in Iowa, Quayle arrived in New Hampshire, bleeding support and facing insurgent challenges from Forbes and 1992 New Hampshire primary winner Pat Buchanan. Buchanan has long been the favorite in New Hampshire, having defeated George Bush in the state four years earlier. Quayle, who locked up support from the state's party establishment including former Governor John Sununu has been struggling to achieve a second place finish.

Then there is John McCain. The Arizona Senator, entered the race midstream, but has been putting in a tough ground game in New Hampshire, hoping that a strong performance in the granite state will propel him onward into other primary contests. McCain, running low on funds has resorted to traditional town hall style events, a bedrock for New Hampshire politics. Having focused with a laser like intensity on the state McCain held on the night of the Iowa Caucuses his 100th town hall in the state. Polls currently show him in third place behind Quayle and Buchanan.

New Hampshire Primary Poll: February 1996

Pat Buchanan: 26%
Dan Quayle: 25%
John McCain: 24%
Steve Forbes: 19%
Peter Wilson: 1%
Undecided: 5%

McCain Shakes up Republican Field: Wins NH Primary!

Arizona Senator John McCain, won the New Hampshire Primary with a whopping 30 percent of the vote, defeating both '92 primary winner Pat Buchanan and Former Vice President Dan Quayle. McCain's win shakes up the dynamic of the Republican Primary, which has yet to unite around one clear candidate, despite the presence of the former Vice President in the race. Buchanan, the long time favorite finished second to McCain, and in his concession speech credited McCain victory to crossover Democrats and Independents who voted for the more 'liberal and Republican-lite' candidate in the race. New Hampshire is an open primary, allowing Republican, Democrats and independents to vote. For the most part, conservative votes mostly united around Forbes and Buchanan, while McCain secured votes from undeclared voters and more moderate Republicans. According to exit polls, those who voted for McCain, claimed he represented a clear breakaway from the Republican Party of the past and admired his 'straight talk' and pragmatism.

The New Hampshire Primary and Iowa Caucuses now represent a clear choice for the Republican Party moving forward. McCain is presenting himself as a political reformer, looking to shakeup Washington. He's called for campaign finance reform of election, a middle class tax cuts and strong defense. Forbes represents the more conservative wing of the Republican party. He's in favor of a flat tax and a return to the supply side economics favored by Ronald Reagan.

Quayle, despite being Vice President is seen as out of luck. A win in either Iowa or New Hampshire was the needed boost for his sagging campaign, and while he has made no decision about withdrawing it does appear Republican primary voters are ready to move beyond the Quayle, Bush era of Republican politics.

Interestingly, the Republican Primary of 1992 represents a schism of where the party is today. Pat Buchanan, was more than a protest candidate, a protest candidate would have take a healthy 30 to 40 percent of the vote in New Hampshire and then faded away. Buchanan did not and won 17 contests in total. The divided is between the grassroots and the establishment wing. Quayle, for his money and backing was running against the party. Since the 1994 congressional midterms the party is more conservative, more reactionary and more akin to the Pat Buchanan style of Republican politics.

Now the question is why did Buchanan fail in New Hampshire, despite winning in 1992? Pundits attribute the split in the conservative vote between him and Forbes, the surprise winner in Iowa. Forbes seems to be tapping into some of what Buchanan is selling, though they are polar opposites, especially on the area of foreign policy, an area that puts Buchanan at odds even with many in the grassroots.

The collapse of Quayle, has left John McCain as the like beneficiary of his political support, though McCain is by no means the establishment pick, something John McCain is proud to admit. In a study of likely nominee in such a disjointed field, Quayle was seen as the natural choice to be the party's nominee's but his stumble and now collapse in Iowa and New Hampshire, leaves no no other person but McCain. Republicans are never to nominate Buchanan, even if the grassroots is behind him, just as they are never to nominate Forbes. Even in '92 with all the discontent around Bush, he still won the nomination, and even in an uncertain and still unsettled field, Republicans are more likely than not going to go with the safer, more centrist, more establishment prone pick.

New Hampshire Primary: 1996

√ John McCain: 30.5%

Pat Buchanan: 25.3%
Dan Quayle: 21.0%
Steve Forbes: 20.3%
Peter Wilson: 1.0%
Other: 1.9%

[NHI]

vs.

vs.

Out of New Hampshire, John McCain emerged as a serious contender for the Republican nomination and 1992 primary Pat Buchanan was seen as yesterday's news. Steve Forbes looked to champion his conservative message and present himself as an electable alternative to Buchanan. Meanwhile, Former Vice President Quayle struggled to save his dying campaign after a surprising loss in Iowa and an doubly disappointing loss in New Hampshire. The Vice President came ready for a fight, he restructure his campaign and took his message to Delaware where four days after New Hampshire, he blunted McCain's insurgency and won the primary with 39% of the vote.

On February 27, Arizona, North and South Dakota held their primaries, John McCain carried his home state of Arizona with 60% of the vote, while Forbes and Quayle split the Dakotas. Forbes winning the North with 42% of the vote, to Quayle's 22% and Quayle winning the South with 40% to Forbes' 29%.

Despite, his win in New Hampshire, McCain's staff was unprepared for their sudden surge and the campaign began to crumble heading out of the Granite State, despite winning his home state McCain's more moderate and independent driven message failed to resonate with the more conservative Republican primary and by the time of the South Carolina primary Dan Quayle was back in the driver's seat and won the all-important primary state with 48% of the vote. Forbes finished a distance second with 29% of the vote, while McCain finished third with only 20%.

Forbes tried to remain the staunchest competitor to Quayle, but he failed to find any traction, on Super Tuesday, Quayle won the majority of the contests, while Forbes took zero. McCain scored a few victories, but not enough to save his campaign. After Super Tuesday, Quayle was the undisputed frontrunner and rather than prolong the fight, John McCain ended his bid and endorsed the former Vice President. Forbes stayed in the race, vowing to fight on until a nominee emerged -- it did not take long. Quayle secured the nomination in late March, and the 1996 Republican Primary was over.

√ Dan Quayle: 67.76%

John McCain: 16.91%

Steve Forbes: 11.42%

Other: 3.91%
Gray=NO Contests Held

The Republican Nominee

A New Third Party Candidate?

After a dismal showing in the Republican primary, despite a near successful run against an incumbent President, Conservative firebrand Pat Buchanan became a flame out after a poor showing in Iowa and New Hampshire. He withdrew from the Republican race, but not from the general election. In late March, as Dan Quayle emerged as the Republican nominee, Pat Buchanan announced his interest in potentially running on the Reform Party Ticket, signaling his growing frustrations with the Republican Party, had "reached a bitter end" and that "it was time to start looking at other viable options."

Founder of the Reform Party and 1992 Independent candidate Ross Perot, was seen as the all but likely Reform Party candidate in the 1996 election, but his cagey and uncertain answers opened the door for Buchanan to make a serious bid. The Reform Party was started in earnest, but in late '96 and thus the decision was made to concoct a mail-in primary vote, in which supporters would be able to vote for an number of candidates. Ross Perot, again flirted with the idea of making himself a candidate, but ruled it out, leaving the Pat Buchanan and Former Colorado Governor Dick Lamm as the major candidates on the ballot. Perot's exit allowed Buchanan to galvanize support and he won easily.

√ Pat Buchanan: 69.01%

Dick Lamm: 24.00%
Other: 6.99%

"Neither Beltway party is going to drain this swamp, because to them it is not a swamp at all, but a projected wetland and their natural habitat!

Gallup Tracking Poll:

Bill Clinton: 47%

Dan Quayle: 33%
Pat Buchanan: 6%

[NHI]

The Democratic Nomination assured, Bill Clinton could campaign in 1996 on a strong American economy and peace in the world, as well as some of his political achievements of the first term. For their part, Quayle and Buchanan were irrelevant factors in the race, while Quayle received some bounce coming out his convention, after selecting John McCain as his running mate, the bounce faded quickly as the fall campaign got underway.

Buchanan emerged as the Reform Party's nominee and selected economist Pat Choate to run with him, while he received acknowledgement from Ross Perot, he did not receive an endorsement, nor was he embraced as openly and warmly as Perot was four years earlier. The result, a weakened third party candidate, without Perot's wit or quirks. A change in the rules for Presidential debates barred Buchanan's from appearing, from decimating his support and he hovered around 3-4% by election day. Buchanan, did serve as a spoiler, drawing a few traditional red states (won by Perot in '92) away from Dan Quayle and flipping them to Clinton. Still, his campaign proved a non-starter and dismal showing for the newly formed party. The Reform Party, while energized at its founding soon fell by the wayside, and after Buchanan's disastrous performance the party all but collapsed by 2000. Many speculated a run by Perot in '96 might have given the campaign more legitimacy and perhaps done better electorally.

Dan Quayle, did his part to paint Clinton as a tax and spend liberal, but those attacks fell flat. In a time of prosperity and peace, Clinton's reelection was never in doubt and on Election Day, he went onto to become the first Democrat since Franklin Roosevelt to be reelected.

√ Bill Clinton: 52.7% (445 EV)

Dan Quayle: 42.9% (93 EV)

Pat Buchanan: 3.3% (0 EV)

The decisive loss to Clinton, which could hardly be pinned all on Buchanan's third party bid caused the Republican Party to reevaluate itself heading into the next Election. A major shakeup was needed, the only question was what kind of a shakeup...

[NHI]

Enter, The General

Four years after passing on a run for the White House, Colin Powell prepared to make a run for the Presidency and in doing so reshape the Republican Party.

...I have been asked many times why I became a Republican. I became a Republican because like you, I believe our party best represents the principles of freedom, opportunity, and limited government upon which our nation was founded. I became a Republican because I believe the policies of our party will lead to greater economic growth which is the only real solution to the problems of poverty that keep too many Americans from sharing in the wealth of this nation. I became a Republican because I believe, like you that the federal government has become too large and too intrusive in our lives. We can no longer afford solutions to our problems that result in more entitlements, higher taxes to pay for them, more bureaucracy to run them and fewer results to show for it. I became a Republican because I believe America must remain the leader of the free world. Republican leadership, a Republican president, will bring greater conviction and coherence to our foreign policy — and will guarantee that our Armed Forces remain the strongest and most capable on earth. I became a Republican because I want to help build a big tent that our party has raised to attract all Americans. You all know that I believe in a woman’s right to choose and I strongly support affirmative action. And, I was invited here by my party to share my views with you because we are a big enough party — and big enough people — to disagree on individual issues and still work together for our common goal: restoring the American dream. I am a Republican because I believe in that dream, and I believe that we are the ones to keep it alive.

It is with that ideal and vision I declare my candidacy to run for the Republican nomination for President of the United States of America."

The entrance of Colin Powell for the Republican nomination was sure to shakeup the Republican Party. A pro choice, moderate Republican, who described Dwight Eisenhower as his model for the presidency, was greeted by waves of support from many Republicans, while the conservatives were leery of a Powell nomination. But after two record losses, the GOP was desperate to win back the White House. Without Bill Clinton running and with Vice President Lee Hamilton passing on a run the race for the Democratic nomination was wide open, bringing in a flood of potential candidates.

TN Senator Al Gore was the first Democrat to toss his hat into the ring.

NJ Senator Bill Bradley enter the race soon after Gore, promising to be a "true progressive President"

Vermont Governor Howard Dean set up an exploratory committee in mid 1998 and formally launched his campaign in June a year later.

MA Senator John Kerry announced his campaign in NH, pinning his hopes on the First in the Nation Primary.

Rev. Al Sharpton entered the Democratic Primary as the longest of long shots.

By comparison, to Colin Powell, the Democrats looked weak and insignificant and many top Democrats began shopping around. In the wake of Powell's entrance, many prominent Republican ruled out a run, including Texas Governor George Bush and Florida Governor Jeb Bush. Arizona Senator and 1996 Vice Presidential nominee John McCain flirted with a bid, but ultimately passed and endorsed Powell. For a while it seemed Powell would have a coronation, rather than a nomination. Sure, 1996 candidate Steve Forbes threw his hat into the ring, even, Reform Party Nominee Pat Buchanan, who after the ultimately collapse of the party changed his registration back to Republican and decided he would try again for the GOP nomination. Forbes pulled the highest in the first early polls, but most of that was attributed to name ID. No one believed he would be the nominee.

The lackluster field made it seem Powell would make a clean sweep for the nomination, that was until Ohio Congressman John Kasich, the conservative Budget Committee Chairman decided practically on a whim to make a run for the Republican nomination. Many didn't give the Ohioan a chance, but he had something the other challengers to Powell lacked, a strong hold on the conservative voting bloc that bounced between Buchanan and Forbes four years earlier and Perot and Buchanan back in '92.

Enter John Kasich

John Kasich, more of a dark horse, than a long shot candidate.

Gallup Tracking Poll: Who is you pick for the Republican Nomination? June 1999

Colin Powell: 54%

Steve Forbes: 13%
John Kasich: 7%
Pat Buchanan: 2%
Other/Undecided: 24%

Gallup Tracking Poll: Who is you pick for the Democratic Nomination? June 1999

Al Gore: 13%
Bill Bradley: 10%
John Kerry: 7%
Howard Dean: 4%
Al Sharpton: 2%
Other/Undecided: 64%

Gallup Tracking Poll: Iowa Caucuses June 1999 (Republican)

Colin Powell: 50%

Steve Forbes: 15%
John Kasich: 3%
Pat Buchanan: 1%
Undecided/Other: 31%

Gallup Tracking Poll: Iowa Caucuses June 1999 (Democrats)

Al Gore: 14%
Bill Bradley: 10%
John Kerry: 4%
Howard Dean: 3%
Al Sharpton: 1%
Undecided/Other: 68%

Gallup Tracking Poll: New Hampshire Primary June 1999 (Republican)

Colin Powell: 59%

Steve Forbes: 12%
Pat Buchanan: 5%
John Kasich: 2%
Undecided/Other: 22%

Gallup Tracking Poll: New Hampshire Primary June 1999 (Democrats)

John Kerry: 13%
Howard Dean: 10%
Al Gore: 7%
Bill Bradley: 5%
Al Sharpton: 1%
Undecided/Other: 64%

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

It lives!

[NHI]

Powell remained the strongest and likeliest Republican nominee, but as spring turned to summer and summer to fall it became clear he was heading for a strong primary challenge from the right.

Kasich showed strength among the conservative grassroots element of the party, making him poised to be the strongest challenger to Powell.

John Kasich proved to be the conservative firebrand in the Republican Primary. He announced his campaign with low name recognition and fundraising, but during the course of a few debates between the candidates, and one in which Colin Powell neglected to appear, Kasich emerged a serious and plausible challenger, and while unlikely at the end of the cycle, a potential nominee.

Kasich invested time and energy into the famous Iowa Straw Poll and it paid off. The Ohio Congressman emerged the winner, illustrating that while Powell had the money and establishment backing, the nomination was not going to be handed to him on a silver platter, and without a plausible third party, conservatives were looking still to the Republican Party. Powell, who did not compete finished second, but the distance between he and Kasich was telling and the strength Forbes was even more so.

Ames Straw Poll: August 14, 1999

John Kasich: 39.9%
Colin Powell: 29.1%
Steve Forbes: 26.5%
Pat Buchanan: 2.4%
Other: 2.1%

Gallup Tracking Poll: Republican Nomination August 1999

Colin Powell: 51%
John Kasich: 22%
Steve Forbes: 10%
Pat Buchanan: 1%
Undecided: 16%

Another Billionaire Businessman to Run?

Donald Trump announced over the summer, he was flirting with running for President, in "some capacity".

Run Joe! Run!

The Delaware Senator, Joe Biden announced in the Fall of '99 that he was running for the Democratic nomination, positioning himself as a fighter for the middle class. His campaign slogan: "Fighting for You" summed up his campaign. Biden had run for President once before, only to drop out after it came to light he plagiarized a speech. Biden acknowledged his past mistakes, and pledged to run on his own merit. He saw an uptick in support during the first candidates' forum in Iowa and focused much of his campaign effort in the first caucus state.

Biden became the fourth sitting US Senator to announce he was running for President, putting Vermont Governor Howard Dean in a different spotlight and he looked to distinguish him as the key executive in the race.

Dean, the brash liberal Governor cut into Bill Bradley's support and his unapologetic embrace of liberal values hurt the New Jersey Senator and his numbers began to slip as the summer turned to fall. If a frontrunner had to be named it was Tennessee Senator Al Gore, but in most tracking polls he led with a meager 10-16 percent.

Gallup Tracking Poll: Democratic Primary August 1999

Al Gore: 15%
Joe Biden: 13%
Howard Dean: 12%
John Kerry: 8%
Bill Bradley: 7%
Al Sharpton: 2%
Undecided: 43%

MAJOR HEADLINES:

NYT: DEMOCRATS STILL DIVIDED OVER HEIR TO CLINTON (October 1999)

WSJ: KASICH OFFERS BEST GOP SALES PITCH ON BUDGET (OCTOBER 1999)

WA POST: POWELL IN TROUBLE; DEAN, BIDEN SURGE (NOVEMBER 1999)

UNION LEADER: ENDORSEMENT; KASICH FOR PRESIDENT (December 1999)

IOWA CAUCUS

KASICH WINS IOWA CAUCUS!

√ John Kasich: 38.8%

Steve Forbes: 32.6%

Colin Powell: 23.7%
Pat Buchanan: 4.6%
Other: 0.3%

IOWA CAUCUS

BIDEN WINS IOWA CAUCUS!

√ Joe Biden: 39.6%
Howard Dean: 32.0%

Al Gore: 16.0%
John Kerry: 7.0%
Bill Bradley: 3.4%
Al Sharpton: 1.9%
Other: 0.1%

[NHI]

Dean Betting on NH Comeback

Vermont Governor Howard Dean, who finished second to Iowa Caucus winner Joe Biden is betting his entire campaign on a win in the New Hampshire Primary. Dean, believes his proximity to the state, coupled by his experience as the only Governor in the race will benefit him as he takes on Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, who is also placing a huge emphasis on the New Hampshire primary.

Joe-Mentum

Iowa winner, Joe Biden assumes the mantle of frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, the question remains can he hold onto his momentum.

Democratic Nomination Poll: January 2000

Joe Biden: 25%
Howard Dean: 19%
Al Gore: 12%
John Kerry: 6%
Bill Bradley: 4%
Al Sharpton: 2%
Undecided: 30%

Bill Bradley Drops out, Endorses Howard Dean for President

Bradley calls Dean, "a winner" and "the best Democrat in the race".

The Unlikely Return of Steve Forbes

No one expected Steve Forbes to finish second in Iowa -- even Steve Forbes. Four years earlier, Forbes won an amazing upset in the Caucuses and put him in the spotlight, but his poorly organized campaign doomed any momentum he received after Iowa. While he won two more contests, he was unable to recapture the magic of Iowa. So, when he announced his candidacy in 1999, most people wrote off his campaign as a non-starter, but his second place finish, over Colin Powell who finished a distant third is one for the books.

While, Ohio Congressman John Kasich has been presumed as the conservative alternative to Powell, Forbes' surprising finish illustrates he may not be a flash in the pan. The question, of course remain whether or not he can build on his second place finish and do well in the crucial state of New Hampshire.

The Incredibly Shrinking General

For Colin Powell it all comes down to New Hampshire.

The success of his Presidential campaign rests entirely in the hands of Granite States. The state is a hard one to figure. It awarded a victory to Pat Buchanan in 1992 over incumbent George Bush, but denied Buchanan a victory four years later and gave it to John McCain. For the record, neither men went onto win the nomination of their party. Powell, is hoping New Hampshire which has a long history of stopping Iowa winners in their tracks will reward the amount of time and effort he has put into New Hampshire. Without a win here, it is doubtful if Powell's campaign will have the legs to continue. Polls show him with 43% of the vote, down from 49%. Iowa Caucus winner John Kasich is running second with 36% of the vote. Steve Forbes is running in third with 14%.

The New Hampshire Primary February 1, 2000

New Hampshire Primary: Republicans (1% Reported)

John Kasich: 40.6%
Colin Powell: 39.9%
Steve Forbes: 15.8%
Pat Buchanan: 3.0%
Other: 0.7%

New Hampshire Primary: Democrats (1% Reported)

Howard Dean: 35.7%
John Kerry: 25.1%
Joe Biden; 23.0%
Al Gore: 15.5%
Al Sharpton: 0.6%
Other: 0.2%

Exit Polls: Republican Primary

Colin Powell: 41.8%
John Kasich: 39.9%
Steve Forbes: 14.6%
Pat Buchanan: 2.8%
Other: 0.9%

Exit Polls: Democratic Primary

Howard Dean: 33.0%
John Kerry: 27.9%
Joe Biden: 25.1%
Al Gore: 13.1%
Al Sharpton: 0.5%
Other: 0.4%

[NHI]

√ PROJECTION: COLIN POWELL WINS NH PRIMARY

√ Colin Powell: 43.01%

John Kasich: 39.91%

Steve Forbes: 13.47%

Pat Buchanan: 2.62%

Other: 0.9%

The General Fights Another Day

Colin Powell fought back the conservative challenge from John Kasich and won the all-important New Hampshire Primary. Pundits now expect the race for the nomination to come down between Powell and Kasich. Steve Forbes, who finished second in Iowa a few weeks back ended his campaign after a poor showing in New Hampshire and immediately endorsed John Kasich. Pat Buchanan has not made clear his intentions after a disappointing last place finish.

√ Howard Dean: 32.83%

John Kerry: 27.09%

Joe Biden: 24.88%
Al Gore: 13.22%
Al Sharpton: 1.00%
Other: 0.8%

NH Democrats Picks Dean For President

Kerry Calls it Quit, Endorses Howard Dean for President

John Kerry backs NH Primary Howard Dean, after a disappointing showing in NH.

Kasich: Let's have a Debate!

Rep John Kasich readies to take on Colin Powell in what he calls, "a fight for the soul of the GOP."

Gallup Tracking Poll: Republican Primary

Colin Powell: 44%
John Kasich: 30%
Pat Buchanan: 3%
Undecided: 23%

Gallup Tracking Poll: Democratic Primary

Howard Dean: 30%
Joe Biden: 25%
Al Gore: 19%
Al Sharpton: 2%
Undecided: 24%

[NHI]

The Republican Primary

Colin Powell: 26

John Kasich: 17

Steve Forbes: 11

Pat Buchanan: 0

Coming on the heels of his comeback in New Hampshire, Colin Powell won a decisive victory over John Kasich in the Delaware primary, beating the Ohioan 56 to 43, setting them up for a battle royal in the South Carolina primary, which typically picked the candidate, which went onto win the Republican nomination. Powell's campaign was hoping to draw on an increased African-American turnout, as well as Republican moderates, while Kasich intended to increase his margins with self-identified conservatives, now being the only one in the race and with Pat Buchanan a non-factor.

Powell's outcome in the South Carolina was seen as determinative for the remainder of the primary. A loss narrow or other to Kasich would likely prolong the nomination fight and perhaps weaken Powell, a win narrow or not would signal his strength and likely end of the primary fight. The beauty for Powell was, while he had Kasich nipping at his heels from the right, the Democrats were still divided over their choice to lead the party.

South Carolina Primary Poll: Feb. 2000

Colin Powell: 47% (+5)

John Kasich: 44%
Pat Buchanan: 1%
Undecided: 8%

Joe Biden and Howard Dean were seen as the two heavyweights for the Democratic nomination, after winning Iowa and New Hampshire respectively. Al Gore, on the other hand struggled to remain relevant. He finished third in the Delaware primary behind Dean as well as in the Washington primary. Both contest delivered no delegates, but illustrated a lack of infrastructure on Gore's part. The campaign largely waited until Super Tuesday, where they thought they could compete in the bigger states, as well as in the self, but it was becoming apparent that Gore was chasing the caboose rather than conducting the train.

The insignificance of Al Gore's candidacy began to set in after the New Hampshire Primary.

Democratic Primary Poll: Feb 2000

Howard Dean: 34%
Joe Biden: 30%
Al Gore: 23%
Al Sharpton: 1%
Undecided: 12%

South Carolina Primary: Colin Powell Prevails!

√ Colin Powell: 52.57%

John Kasich: 46.10%

Pat Buchanan: 1.30%
Other: 0.03%

Back on Top: Powell's Comeback Complete

Winning both New Hampshire and South Carolina has put the General back in control of the campaign and all-but secured his path to the Republican nomination.

Gallup Tracking Poll: Feb. 2000

Hypothetical General Election: Colin Powell

Colin Powell: 53%

Howard Dean: 37%

Undecided: 10%

Colin Powell: 52%

Joe Biden: 40%

Undecided: 8%

Colin Powell: 53%

Al Gore: 39%

Undecided: 8%

Hypothetical General Election: John Kasich

John Kasich: 43%

Howard Dean: 38%

Undecided: 19%

John Kasich: 42%

Joe Biden: 44%

Undecided: 14%

John Kasich: 43%

Al Gore: 43%

Undecided: 14%

Hypothetical General Election: Colin Powell, Donald Trump, Democrat

Colin Powell: 50%

Howard Dean: 25%

Donald Trump: 13%

Undecided: 12%

Colin Powell: 47%

Joe Biden: 36%

Donald Trump: 9%

Undecided: 9%

Colin Powell: 48%

Al Gore: 33%

Donald Trump: 11%

Undecided: 8%

[tmthforu94]

Another excellent timeline. Good work - keep it coming!

[NHI]

KASICH: CAMPAIGN FUTURE IN DOUBT

Suffering a string of defeat by Colin Powell in Arizona and Michigan, as well as in Puerto Rico, Washington and Virginia the Ohio Congressman is wondering where his campaign can go next. "We hoped to do well in Michigan, given its proximity to Ohio and I figured there would be some overlap." Kasich lost Michigan to Powell 53 to 46 percent, while he lost in Arizona 55 to 44 percent. Kasich did not contest Puerto Rico, but lost decisively in both Washington and Virginia. Kasich acknowledges the road ahead is difficult, but is not pulling up shop yet. "We'll continue to make our case and see where the chips fall."


John Kasich was determined to stay in the race through Super Tuesday, and his campaign did receive a small bump, after winning the North Dakota Caucus (51.7% to 47.9%), leading the media to drum up the Kasich Comeback narrative. The Powell Campaign, was hardly concerned though; heading in Super Tuesday national polls put them in the lead 52% to 41%.

The Democratic Party of Dean

With Super Tuesday looking to be the end for the Kasich insurgency, on the Democratic side nothing could be farther from the truth. The Democrats were divided between Joe Biden and Howard Dean, with Al Gore a distant third (though his campaign was banking on a strong showing on Super Tuesday). The consensus around Dean was while he appealed to the hearts and minds of the Democratic base he was the most un-electable of the three, Biden even went so far to say, "he'd Barry Goldwater the Democratic Party in November". Dean fired back against his rivals, calling them out of step with the party and the country. "We're drawing crowds and creating energy, while their running on the same old playbook that brought us Ronald Reagan and Bush.

Super Tuesday Results: Democratic and Republican Primaries

California:

√ Colin Powell: 56.21% (162)

John Kasich: 41.90%

Pat Buchanan: 1.00%
Other: 0.89%

√ Howard Dean: 38.71% (153)

Joe Biden: 38.00% (152)

Al Gore: 22.29% (62)
Other: 1.00%

Connecticut

√ Colin Powell: 57.89% (25)

John Kasich: 42.06%
Pat Buchanan: 0.04%
Other: 0.01%

√ Howard Dean: 43.00% (30)

Joe Biden: 39.71% (20)

Al Gore: 16.30% (4)
Other: 0.99%

Georgia:

√ Colin Powell: 59.89% (54)

John Kasich: 39.06%
Pat Buchanan: 1.04%
Other: 0.01%

√ Al Gore: 56.30% (57)

Joe Biden: 29.71% (20)

Howard Dean: 12.99% (4)

Other: 0.99%

Hawaii: Democrats Only

√ Howard Dean: 49.73% (20)

Joe Biden: 32.30% (2)

Al Gore: 17.71%
Other: 0.97%

Idaho: Democrats Only

√ Joe Biden: 45.01% (14)

Al Gore: 36.41% (3)

Howard Dean: 18.58% (1)

Maine:

√ Colin Powell: 58.89% (14)

John Kasich: 41.10%
Pat Buchanan: 1.00%
Other: 0.01%

√ Howard Dean: 46.73% (13)

Joe Biden: 38.30% (9)

Al Gore: 16.61% (1)
Other: 0.07%

Maryland:

√ Colin Powell: 62.89% (31)

John Kasich: 38.10%
Pat Buchanan: 0.00%
Other: 0.01%

√ Joe Biden: 54.01% (49)

Howard Dean: 33.41% (19)

Al Gore: 12.57% (1)
Other: 0.01%

Massachusetts:

√ Colin Powell: 67.10% (37)

John Kasich: 33.88%
Pat Buchanan: 0.00%
Other: 0.02%

√ Joe Biden: 44.00% (47)

Howard Dean: 43.51% (46)

Al Gore: 12.48% (1)
Other: 0.01%

Minnesota: Republicans Only

√ Colin Powell: 52.89% (33)

John Kasich: 47.11% (2)
Pat Buchanan: 0.99%
Other: 0.01%

Missouri:

√ Colin Powell: 53.11% (35)

John Kasich: 46.89%
Pat Buchanan: 0.99%
Other: 0.01%

√ Al Gore: 42.30% (40)

Joe Biden: 37.71% (34)

Howard Dean: 18.99% (1)

Other: 0.99%

New York:

√ Colin Powell: 59.11% (74)

John Kasich: 40.99% (19)
Pat Buchanan: 0.90%
Other: 0.01%

√ Joe Biden: 37.01% (99)

Howard Dean: 33.51% (87)

Al Gore: 28.48% (57)
Other: 1.00%

North Dakota: Democrats Only

√ Howard Dean: 51.89%  (13)

Joe Biden: 29.26% (1)

Al Gore: 18.85%

Ohio:

√ Colin Powell: 51.06% (40)

John Kasich: 48.91% (29)

Pat Buchanan: 0.01%
Other: 0.02%

√ Joe Biden: 40.01% (78)

Howard Dean: 29.51% (39)

Al Gore: 29.48% (39)
Other: 1.00%

Rhode Island:

√ Colin Powell: 68.99% (14)

John Kasich: 30.71%
Pat Buchanan: 0.00%
Other: 0.30%

√ Howard Dean: 40.89%  (11)

Joe Biden: 38.26% (9)

Al Gore: 20.84% (2)
Other: 0.01%

Vermont:

√ Colin Powell: 73.58% (12)

John Kasich: 26.41%

Other: 0.01%

√ Howard Dean: 74.89%  (15)

Joe Biden: 15.26%

Al Gore: 9.84%
Other: 0.01%

Washington: (Caucus)

√ Colin Powell: 67.41% (23)

John Kasich: 32.58% (2)

Other: 0.01%

√ Howard Dean: 36.26% (33)

Joe Biden: 34.89% (28)

Al Gore: 28.85% (15)

Democratic Primary Map

Joe Biden: 438

Howard Dean: 380

Al Gore: 231

John Kerry: 7

The Republican Primary

Colin Powell: 742

John Kasich: 99

Steve Forbes: 11

Pat Buchanan: 0

[NHI]

Colin Powell: The Republican Nominee

The results of Super Tuesday were indisputable. Colin Powell was on path to win the Republican nomination. John Kasich remained in the race and won the Wyoming Caucus, a few days after Super Tuesday, but his campaign was out of funds and effectively dried up as the nomination battle moved into Florida and Texas on March 14th. On the 14th, Kasich, made a play for some of the smaller, more traditionally conservative states in the south, but he was overwhelmed by Powell's campaign infrastructure and soundly lost on the 14th, carrying only the Oklahoma primary by a razor thin margin (49.94% to 49.86%).

After the March 14th vote, Colin Powell had achieved 1,102 of 1,191 delegates needed to be nominated and with a slew of big states like Pennsylvania and Illinois coming up in late March and early April, the Kasich campaign was out of options. He did remain in the race, however, contesting Illinois, which he lost to Powell (66%to 33%). His win in the land of Lincoln gave him 1,166 delegates, 25 short of nomination. Bowing to the inevitable, John Kasich withdrew from the Republican race shortly before the April 4th vote (Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) and endorsed Colin Powell. On April 4th, Powell went over the top, garnering 1,281 delegates, more than enough to be nominated at the Republican convention.

Republican Primary Map: As of April 5, 2000

√ Colin Powell: 1,281 (Presumptive Republican Nominee)

John Kasich: 137[color]

Steve Forbes: 11

Pat Buchanan: 0

The Donald is Running for President

Colin Powell's historic nomination as the first African-American to lead a major party ticket was one of the biggest stories of the century, let alone the year, and perhaps one of the biggest sideshows of the year was the announcement by Donald Trump that he was in fact going to run for President. The real estate mogul briefly flirted with a bid on the Reform Party Ticket, but with it in shambles, Trump announced he would seek the Presidency as an Independent, the first since Ross Perot and that "come hell or high water I'm going to win." Polling put him in single digits at the start of his campaign, but he promised to spend a lot of his "own money" to win the election
and "shakeup Washington and the political class".

On the Democratic side of the aisle, the race for the nomination was far from settled. After Super Tuesday Al Gore decided it was time to pack up and go home to Tennessee. He did manage to win South Carolina, but it was expected and by a closer margin that originally projected. His depature left the field of only two candidates: Joe Biden and Howard Dean. Gore remained on the sidelines for a few weeks while Dean and Biden battled it out. The party establishment favored Biden, given his more centrist style and working class roots, while the base of the Democratic Party was enthralled with Howard Dean.

The Dean Scream

Dean received some flack from many in the press and in the party for his victory speech in Michigan, where he seemed to scream as the audience cheered. The incident was replayed over and over again once it found traction, a few days after the vote and Biden, who he himself had an affinity for open mic gaffes seized on the "Dean Scream". The constant media replay and efforts by those in the Democratic Party undermined Howard Dean and his campaign struggled following the incident.

Dean, would win the Nevada Caucus, but lost badly to Biden in the "Southern Primary" on March 14th, which included Florida. Right before the vote, Gore endorsed Biden in his home state of Tennessee, allowing Biden to win the state (57% to 43%) over Dean. Dean lost the rest of the primaries by wide margin (Texas 64% to 33%), the closest was in Florida, where Biden prevailed 51 to 47%. The "scream" hurt Dean and while Biden was far from a perfect candidate, it was the belief of many in the Democratic Party he was the most electable of the two candidates.

Bide and Gore at Gore's home in Washington.

Howard Dean remained in the race throughout the remainder of March, but with the full weight of the Democratic Party behind Joe Biden, Howard Dean was about to go the way of Gary Hart and other insurgent candidates of the past.  Bide crushed in the Illinois primary and by the Pennsylvania primary Dean was low on fund and support. He struggled in the Keystone State and went onto lose it 59 to 40 percent. The same in Wisconsin, another blowout for Biden and the end of the Howard Dean campaign. His improbable ride was essentially over. He remained in the race throughout April, winning the Alaska Caucus, but no more.

By May, Biden was in the eyes of the Democratic Party, the eventual nominee and on May 3rd he swept all three contests (NC, IN and DC) winning all by big margins. Dean continued to challenge Biden throughout the remainder of the primary, but he failed to stop his momentum. There was concern over Howard Dean's continued presence. While he was unlikely to win the nomination, he was enabling a potential brokered convention as it seemed impossible for Biden to win enough delegates to be nominated on the first ballot.

Gore, who had collected a substantial amount of delegates asked for his to be released in support of Joe Biden at the convention. Gore's delegates coupled by the aid of super delegates was more than enough to put Joe Biden over the top for the Democratic nomination

Democratic Primary Map

Joe Biden: 1,913+231+Super Delegates =2,384 of 2,025

Howard Dean: 720

Al Gore: 231

John Kerry: 7

The Democratic Nominee: Joe Biden

Gallup Tracking Poll:

Colin Powell: 50%

Joe Biden: 32%

Donald Trump: 10%

[WVdemocrat]

Go Joe!