Who is the GOP front-runner?

[Likely Voter]

Through most of 2014 there really didn't seem to be a true front-runner for the GOP, especially after Christie's troubles started. But is there one now?
Betting and fund-raising indicates Bush, but latest polling shows Walker. Or is it someone else or still no one?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I'm not sure there is one. I'm not expecting this to turn into Walker/Bush head to head. Walker might be too weak in some areas to pull a massive sweep. He's the favorite, but frontrunner requires more than 30% confidence in an event. Romney 2012 was much more obvious.

[Abraham Reagan]

Walker, he's ahead in most polls even with much less name recognition than Bush. Despite what people say, I don't think Walker's sudden surge is because of his speech in Iowa. I think  it comes from many of the people who wanted Romney to run jumped into Walker's corner after Mitt bowed out.

[TDAS04]

No one is yet.

[Rockefeller GOP]

No one is yet.

[Suburbia]

Right now, Walker.

[Mister Mets]

Walker polls best, so in that sense he's the frontrunner.

I think Jeb's slightly more likely to win. He has better resources and insitutional support, in addition to a relatively high floor.

[Vega]

No one is yet.

Which is to be expected since it's such a clear primary and we're almost a year out from the first primary.

[Xing]

Walker's ahead by a bit right now, but not really enough for him to be the "front-runner." It's too early on the Republican side to consider one candidate in particular to be favored. It's a different story on the Democratic side, just ask IceSpear, lol.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Scott Walker is currently the front-runner.  He is polling better than the rest of the field and by a moderate margin at that.  That said, most front runners 20 months before the general election either have dropped out or otherwise have not won the general.  Being the front runner now is not necessarily good news for Walker.  Bush is still sitting pretty and so is Rand Paul and some of the others.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Walker, by a whisker.

[pikachu]

Walker's the favorite for now, but the circus that is the Republican primary has yet to truly start...

[PresidentTRUMP]

Republican nominee will be one of these in no particular order, the rest is just for talk:

Bush
Rubio
Walker

One of these three will pick up steam and win the nomination pretty easily, just not sure who yet.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Walker's the favorite for now, but the circus that is the Republican primary has yet to truly start...

Unfortunately for democrats and Hillary she won't face a real primary and will be very susceptible in the general by a tested and game ready Bush, Rubio or Walker.

[Del Tachi]

Bush is still the heavy favorite.

Fundraising and establishment support means much more than polling numbers when we're still 10 months out from Iowa.

[© tweed]

Jeb.  "frontrunner" is not synonymous with "who you think will win".  we can't say retrospectively that Hillary Clinton was not the frontrunner in the 2008 primary, Ed Muskie in 1972, etc.

nor is it reducible to poll results.  Romney remained the frontrunner throughout 2011 despite trailing in this or that poll to Gingrich and Herman Cain.  Jeb will have the most powerful and moneyed connections, and the most Establishment support.

[Mr. Morden]

nor is it reducible to poll results.  Romney remained the frontrunner throughout 2011 despite trailing in this or that poll to Gingrich and Herman Cain.

Perry was arguably the frontrunner for a brief time in 2011.

[© tweed]

nor is it reducible to poll results.  Romney remained the frontrunner throughout 2011 despite trailing in this or that poll to Gingrich and Herman Cain.

Perry was arguably the frontrunner for a brief time in 2011.

disagree.  it was always Romney.  he had the most establishment support and $$, and the MSM consistently cast him in that role.


the 2008 GOP was more or less without a frontrunner.  same with 2004 Dems, though by late Dec 2003 it seemed to be Dean, against all odds.

[Simfan34]

Walker doesn't have the money, at least not as now.

[© tweed]

Walker doesn't have the money, at least not as now.

the one thing he has going for him is the closeness to the Kochs.  they've worked together before, and could funnel hundreds of millions to him through the Super-PACs.  they've said they're willing/planning to spend up to $1B on the 2016 elections.  they could by-themselves cancel out Jeb's financial advantage.

the only thing holding them back from really going all-out for Walker is the fear of alienating Jeb should he win in spite of them.  he might hold a grudge, though throwing money at him during the general election could well lead Jeb and the Kochs to let by-gones be by-gones, so to speak.

[Simfan34]

The Kochs have money, but not the kind of money to outweigh everyone else put together.

[© tweed]

The Kochs have money, but not the kind of money to outweigh everyone else put together.

collectively they have a net worth of over $80 billion and the willingness to spend a tremendous amount of it on elections.

it will be interesting to see if you're right.  usually there are 'only' a few billions spent on an election cycle.  with the Citizens' United and Super PAC framework now firmly established, it'll be interesting to see exactly how out of hand things get.  will we see a $10B election cycle?  $25B?  it's hard to see exactly why not, given that money can be funneled directly from corporations to Super PACs.

[Simfan34]

You start to wonder what exactly is all this money is actually going to be spent on.

[bobloblaw]

Walker's the favorite for now, but the circus that is the Republican primary has yet to truly start...

Unfortunately for democrats and Hillary she won't face a real primary and will be very susceptible in the general by a tested and game ready Bush, Rubio or Walker.

That is correct. The likelihood of a major Hillary gaffe during the general election will only increase.

[Mister Mets]

I voted Walker. He leads in the polls right now. Which fits the metaphor of the frontrunner.