2017 B.C election

[136or142]

O.K, it's a bit early, but there is some news.

1.The next election is scheduled for May 9, 2017.  There was talk of moving it to September after the financial accounts had been audited but that seems to have died down.

2.While I don't find Premier Christy Clark honest or even all that intelligent, she is clearly a brilliant political animal.  She is presently trying to split the private sector unions, which are still quite large in B.C, from the anti development public sector unions.

3.Only recent poll (December 2014):
NDP: 40%
Liberal: 36%
Green: 14%
Conservative: 8%
http://www.insightswest.com/news/confidence-on-issues-eroding-for-british-columbia-government/
Of course, we here take polls with a large grain of salt.

NDP cabinet prediction.  
Of course, it depends if the NDP wins the next election, as well as who the new MLAs are and who retires. 20 of the 34 NDP MLAs have served since at least 2005 and could retire.

Ages are for 2017
My predictions are evenly divided regionally and between men and women.

1.Premier/Federal-Provincial Relations, John Horgan,56, Management Consulting Firm Principal "IdeaWorks", Former Premier Miller Chief of Staff, former Deputy Minister, M.A-History, Juan de Fuca (Southern Vancouver Island), 2005-

2.Finance, Bruce Ralston, Lawyer and Firm Owner, Former Chair and Director Van City Savings Credit Union, Former Provincial NDP Party President, City Councillor 1988-1993, B.A-History, Surrey-Whalley (Fraser Valley), 2005-

3.Economic Development and Trade, Shane Simpson, Director Policy and Communications Smart Growth B.C,  former Community Development Program Instructor, former Vice Chair Isadoras Co-op Restaurant, Vancouver-Hastings (Vancouver), 2005-

4.Tourism, Small Business and Culture, Nicholas Simons,  Sechelt Nation Director of Health and Social Development, former Child Protection Worker, Cellist and Satirist, M.A-Criminology, Powell River-Sunshine Coast (North, Center and Coast), 2005-

5.Labour and Immigration/Multiculturalism/Women's Equality, Kathy Corrigan,63, CUPE Policy Researcher, former Lawyer, former School Trustee and Board Chair 1999-2008, Burnaby-Deer Lake (Lower Mainland), 2009-

6.Forests, Norm MacDonald, Elementary School Principal, former Mayor of Golden 1996-1999, Columbia River-Revelstoke (Southern Interior), 2005-

7.Energy, Mines and Resources, Adrian Dix,52, Executive Director Canadian Parents for French B.C/Yukon Branch, former Premier Clark Chief of Staff, Vancouver-Kingsway (Vancouver), 2005-

8.Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, Rural Affairs, Lana Popham,48, Organic Vineyard Owner (Barking Dog Vineyard), B.A-Georgraphy, M.A-Urban Planning, Saanich South (Southern Vancouver Island) 2009-

9.Environment, Lands and Parks/Northern Affairs,  Doug Donaldson,59, Executive Director Storyteller's Foundation, Former Journalist, Former Tourism Businesses Owner, Former Director Bulkley Valley Credit Union, former Hazelton Town Councillor 1999-2008, B.Sc-Biology, M.A-Journalism, Stikine (North, Center and Coast), 2009-

10.Transportation and Infrastructure, Harry Bains,64, Steelworkers-IWA Canada Local Vice President, Surrey-Newton (Fraser Valley) 2005-

11.Government Services and Public Works, Katrine Conroy, Executive Director Kootenay Family Place, Cattle Rancher, Former Power Engineer, Kootenay West (Southern Interior), 2005-

12.Human Resources and Housing, Michelle Mungall,38, Non Profit Manager, Former Nelson City Councillor 2002-2005, B.A-Political Science, M.A-Human Security, Nelson-Creston (Southern Interior), 2009-

13.Children and Family Development/Deputy Premier, Carole James,59,  Carrier Sekani Family Services Director of Child and Family Services, Former B.C Government Director of Child Care Policy, Former School Trustee and Board Chair 1990-2001, Victoria-Beacon Hill (Southern Vancouver Island) 2005-

14.Education, Robin Austin,58, Community School Coordinator, Former Owner Camille's Restaurant, Former Hotel Manager, B.A-Hotel Management, BSW, Skeena (North, Center and Coast), 2005-

15.Advanced Eduation, Training and Technology/House Leader, Mike Farnworth,57, Former M.P Executive Assistant, City Councillor 1985-1991, B.A-Geography Port Coquitlam (Lower Mainland) 1991-2001, 2005- and Former Cabinet Minister,  

16.Health, Judy Darcy,66, Hospital Employees Union Secretary Business Manager, Former CUPE National President, New Westminster (Lower Mainland), 2013-

17.Municipal Affairs, Selina Robinson,53, Self Employed Psychologist and SHARE Family and Community Services Director of Development, City Councillor 2008-2013, B.A and M.A-Counselling Psychology, Coquitlam-Maillardville (Lower Mainland), 2013-

18.Aboriginal Affairs, Claire Trevena,54, Self Employed Communications Consultant (Start Communicating Strategies), Former Communications Consulting Firm Managing Director, Former CBC Newsworld International Executive, Former BBC International Editor, North Island (Northern Vancouver Island), 2005-

19.Attorney General, David Eby,39, Constitutional and Administrative Lawyer and Law Professor, Former B.C Civil Liberties Association Executive Director, Former Executive Director Pivot Legal Society, Legal Author, Vancouver-Point Grey (Vancouver) 2013-

Chief Whip, Maurine Karagianis

Speaker, Raj Chouhan

[136or142]

Even now, the BC NDP are barely leading. Not a good sign for the party's long-term future even if they win the next election.

With the exceptions of 1991 and 2001 B.C elections have been decided by less than 6% since 1979.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP leading by 4? So really, the Liberals are ahead by 20 points. OK then.

[Holmes]

NDP leading by 4? So really, the Liberals are ahead by 20 points. OK then.

^ ^

NDP will be ahead by 15 points on election day, and BC Libs will win a majority.

[DC Al Fine]

Interestingly enough, the Conservatives would win Peace River South in a proportional swing model and current polling

[DC Al Fine]

Oh and the Greens would win three seats in the Victoria area.

[Boston Bread]

Interestingly enough, the Conservatives would win Peace River South in a proportional swing model and current polling

Conservatives were polling 2-3 times over what they actually got throughout the 2013 campaign. It really hurts when you don't run candidates in a good chunk of ridings.

[Smid]

Will it be on the same map? Or do I have to add it to Saskatchewan as a province I have to update?

[136or142]

Will it be on the same map? Or do I have to add it to Saskatchewan as a province I have to update?

Same map.  New electoral map roughly every two elections.

[swl]

I thought you were talking about 2017 before Christ.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I thought you were talking about 2017 before Christ.

So did I.

[lilTommy]

Will it be on the same map? Or do I have to add it to Saskatchewan as a province I have to update?

Same map.  New electoral map roughly every two elections.

Since 89, Its been every 10 years, since the last redistribution was 2008, for the 2009 election, the next wont be till 2018, after the next election. So were stuck with these bad boys

Polls are notoriously bad everywhere... interestingly the NDP is polling about the same as the 2013 election (39% then) and the Liberals are 8 points lower (44% in 2013), mostly going to the Greens who are polling about 6 point higher (8% in 2013) Tories have doubled, but as it's already mentioned much of that will be wasted when they don't run candidates.
The NDP could form government if the Greens keep eating the Liberal vote; it will cost the NDP in places like VanIsland, but they could make up those seats in the lower mainland where riding's are lost by only a few % points, a few points going from the Liberals to the greens will turn those seats NDP.

Also, it depends on what kind of campaign the NDP runs... hopefully they have learnt from their mistakes (massive ones) back in 2013. I actually think Dix should probably not run again... and we know Kwan (most likely) will win the VanEast Federal nomination. That's two open NDP seats right there in Vancouver where the NDP actually picked up 2 seats (Fairview and Point Grey) bucking the overall lower mainland trend in 2013

[DL]

I like BC NDP leader John Horgan ideas and strategy for dealing with the Green Party here

http://www.vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/Vaughn+Palmer+Horgan+ponders+sharing+power+eyes/10865437/story.html

"The New Democrats have lately toned down their attacks on the Greens, after that embarrassing exchange on social media in January when MLA Doug Routley and Horgan’s chief of staff John Heaney discussed slinging a “mudline” at Weaver. When Routley resumed sniping at Weaver on the floor of the legislature last week, NDP house leader Mike Farnworth personally intervened to put a stop to it.

Horgan, for his part, is promoting a more realistic view of the threat that the Greens pose to NDP support, suggesting it is confined to a handful of ridings, mostly in the capital region.

“When you get outside of the South Island, the Green vote is very, very flat,” he maintains. “Five, six, seven per cent at best in communities in the Lower Mainland. Virtually nothing when you get out into the hinterland where resource development is what keeps communities vibrant.”

Combine that perspective with his stance on proportional representation, MSP premiums and fracking and one glimpses the makings of a tacit pitch to potential green supporters in the next election: Vote Green, if you must, in the few ridings where the party might win; vote NDP everywhere else, lest you again end up with the Liberals."

I have long felt that in dealing with the so-called Green party - there are two things the NDP ought NOT to do:

1. Don't bother trying to "outgreen" the Greens on environmental issues. it will never work - it doesnt matter what you have in your platform - no party that lacks the word "green" in its name will EVER been seen as being "greener" than a party called "green".  In any case a surprising number of people who vote Green don't even care that much about environmental issues - they just like the idea of a third party in BC full of wonky, supposedly non-partisan flakes

2. Don't attack the Greens head on - since it will only raise their profile and create a backlash.

Instead - Kill them with kindness - as Horgan is clearly doing

[Stranger in a strange land]

I thought you were talking about 2017 before Christ.

So did I.

I seriously thought this was going to be a parody thread about a hypothetical election that would have taken place in 2017 BC. I have to say I'm a bit disappointed.

[Hatman 🍁]

Thanks for cluttering up this thread guys.

[136or142]

Since 89, Its been every 10 years, since the last redistribution was 2008, for the 2009 election, the next wont be till 2018, after the next election. So were stuck with these bad boys

Also, it depends on what kind of campaign the NDP runs... hopefully they have learnt from their mistakes (massive ones) back in 2013. I actually think Dix should probably not run again... and we know Kwan (most likely) will win the VanEast Federal nomination. That's two open NDP seats right there in Vancouver where the NDP actually picked up 2 seats (Fairview and Point Grey) bucking the overall lower mainland trend in 2013

1.Thanks for the correction on the redistriciting.

2.I disagree on Adrian Dix.  Although he did run a poor campaign, he lost mainly because Christy Clark ran based on a series of lies that neither the media nor Dix sufficiently called her out on.

Dix is also a very smart guy who masters his files and would likely make an excellent cabinet minister.

3.The NDP also defeated the Liberals for a seat in Burnaby (Jane Shin's riding).

[136or142]

Not really a surprise, I was WRONG about redistricting. There will be new boundaries for the 2017 election. I believe Vaughn Palmer wrote about 40 of the 85 present ridings will be affected and there will be two new ridings, one in Surrey and one in Richmond.

The good news for me is that I no longer will be represented by the less than useless Linda Reid, so I will now be free to vote for the B.C Liberal Party should I find them to be a better option than the Greens  or the NDP, though at this point I find John Horgan to be a much better leader than Christy Clark.

I will be moved into the new riding of Richmond-Queensborough, most of which had apparently been previously in the New Westminster riding.  I don't know much about this area's electoral history, but if it's anything like New Westminster, the NDP may actually have a chance to finally win a riding in Richmond, something they haven't done in over 40 years.

You can find the proposed new boundaries on the elections B.C website and you can read about the changes in today's column by Vaughn Palmer.  As Palmer says, the proposed new boundaries are likely to go through without any changes.

[MaxQue]

Not really a surprise, I was WRONG about redistricting. There will be new boundaries for the 2017 election. I believe Vaughn Palmer wrote about 40 of the 85 present ridings will be affected and there will be two new ridings, one in Surrey and one in Richmond.

The good news for me is that I no longer will be represented by the less than useless Linda Reid, so I will now be free to vote for the B.C Liberal Party should I find them to be a better option than the Greens  or the NDP, though at this point I find John Horgan to be a much better leader than Christy Clark.

I will be moved into the new riding of Richmond-Queensborough, most of which had apparently been previously in the New Westminster riding.  I don't know much about this area's electoral history, but if it's anything like New Westminster, the NDP may actually have a chance to finally win a riding in Richmond, something they haven't done in over 40 years.

You can find the proposed new boundaries on the elections B.C website and you can read about the changes in today's column by Vaughn Palmer.  As Palmer says, the proposed new boundaries are likely to go through without any changes.

I wouldn't be that hopeful. Richmond-Queensborough is mostly a renamed Richmond Est, taking a small part of New Westminster (which isn't a very NDP part of it) and losing some parts in the western of the riding. It's probably still quite Liberal and you may still have Linda Reid, I fear.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Is electoral reform dead for the foreseeable future following the failed referendum? Very much a shame, it's always sad to see the horrors of FPTP kept up.

[Hatman 🍁]

Some of those deviations in Northern BC are atrocious.

[Lotuslander]

I will be moved into the new riding of Richmond-Queensborough, most of which had apparently been previously in the New Westminster riding.  I don't know much about this area's electoral history, but if it's anything like New Westminster, the NDP may actually have a chance to finally win a riding in Richmond, something they haven't done in over 40 years.

Well, the new riding of Richmond-Queensborough extends as far west as No. 3 Road and No. 4 Road. Basically the same former Richmond East riding boundaries.The vast majority of the population still resides in the Richmond portion of the riding. The only addition is Queensborough from New Westminster albeit Queensborough is directly connected to the East Richmond residential areas and separated from NW by the Fraser River.

Furthermore, Queensborough is developing new residential areas near its east end and the Libs won these areas and about 50% of the polling stations on Queensborough in 2013. IOW, this 4th Richmond seat is another Lib stronghold.

The other seat created shrunk both Surrey-Cloverdale and Surrey-Panorama Ridge for a new Surrey seat tucked in - Surrey South. With 2013 vote transposition, the Libs now have 3 strongholds here.

And the Comox Valley riding on Vancouver Island has removed some NDP stronholds such as Royston, Cumberland, Denman Island, Hornby Island etc. into the neighbouring NDP seat of Mid Island-Pacific Rim. Makes Comox Valley a safer BC Lib seat.

The BC Libs look like the big winners coming out of this redistribution.

[136or142]

I will be moved into the new riding of Richmond-Queensborough, most of which had apparently been previously in the New Westminster riding.  I don't know much about this area's electoral history, but if it's anything like New Westminster, the NDP may actually have a chance to finally win a riding in Richmond, something they haven't done in over 40 years.

Well, the new riding of Richmond-Queensborough extends as far west as No. 3 Road and No. 4 Road. Basically the same former Richmond East riding boundaries.The vast majority of the population still resides in the Richmond portion of the riding. The only addition is Queensborough from New Westminster albeit Queensborough is directly connected to the East Richmond residential areas and separated from NW by the Fraser River.

Furthermore, Queensborough is developing new residential areas near its east end and the Libs won these areas and about 50% of the polling stations on Queensborough in 2013. IOW, this 4th Richmond seat is another Lib stronghold.

The other seat created shrunk both Surrey-Cloverdale and Surrey-Panorama Ridge for a new Surrey seat tucked in - Surrey South. With 2013 vote transposition, the Libs now have 3 strongholds here.

And the Comox Valley riding on Vancouver Island has removed some NDP stronholds such as Royston, Cumberland, Denman Island, Hornby Island etc. into the neighbouring NDP seat of Mid Island-Pacific Rim. Makes Comox Valley a safer BC Lib seat.

The BC Libs look like the big winners coming out of this redistribution.

I believe Queensborough actually is part of Richmond, though I could just as easily be confusing it with the Hamilton neighborhood.

Edit: Nope, I'm am wrong, though I'm I can see where my confusion came from.

Wiki: Queensborough is a neighbourhood in the city of New Westminster, British Columbia, Canada. It is on the eastern tip of Lulu Island on the Fraser River.

The rest of Lulu Island is Richmond.  I had no idea there was any part of Lulu Island not in Richmond.

I, for one, am prepared to take up arms to unite all of Lulu Island.