France: Départementales 2015 - March 22/29, 2015

[Zanas]

Valls says Left had `Honorable score' in Local Vote.  If exit polls are right and the Left takes around 35% of the vote then would that not be the worst result ever for the Left? Of course a lot of it has to do with the surge of FN.  Still, even if FN is kept out of first place I fail to see how the Left had a 'Honorable score' with the worst result in history.

Well they were predicted to do even worse, so it's a kind of relief for them. Several départements where we thought the Left would be wiped out totally from the council will in the end still send a few left-wing councillors.

Still, not exactly a great night for the Left in general.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I like the BBC's lead: "Sarkozy 'staves off France far-right': Ex-president Nicolas Sarkozy's UMP and its allies push the National Front into second in the first round of French local elections, exit polls suggest".

So Sarkozy "saves the day", then? Interesting way to put it. Actually, most of the headlines seem to apparently credit Sarkozy for the performance of the "Sarkozy party", otherwise known as the UMP. The question is- will the French see it that way?

Most French people don't, and won't, give a sh*t about these elections. They will change nothing either way (which is, on balance, a good thing for Sarkozy, since he's probably favored to win 2017 at this point).

[jaichind]

Looking at results at

http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/departementales/2015/03/22/01054-20150322ARTWWW00028-departementales-les-resultats-canton-par-canton.php

It seems FN not doing that great.  On the other hand the areas where the FN are the strongest are not in yet.  But overall it seems that the exit polls are accurate as far as FN levels of support is concerned.

[swl]

266 candidates (for 4108 seats) have been elected so far in this 1st round :

[Simfan34]

Mostly irrelevant, but apparently this is the cover of tomorrow's Libération. If I'm reading it correctly, the headline is rather curious:



"One has won"? I have a suspicion whoever thought of it first thought of it in English. But who knows.

[swl]

"We won".

Because everyone in the election night pretended to be happy with the results.

[Boston Bread]

The French left can exhale for now, I guess.
Would the left have done better and FN worse with higher turnout? If that's the case I don't see an apocalypse for PS in the next legislative election, though they'll probably lose the presidential (deservedly).

[jaichind]

Just sampling results from different departments and comparing them to 2014 European elections it seems that FN should get around 25% of the vote just like 2014 European elections.

[swl]

One also has to consider that they were the party presenting the highest number of candidates, it obviously helps when add the votes nationwide. For example, in my 'canton' there was no right-wing candidate, only PS, FN and Front de Gauche while any UMP/right-wing candidate would have got at least 10% of the votes.

Official results:
https://twitter.com/Place_Beauvau
http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/departementales-2015/

[njwes]

So for those who dislike the FN, should they be pleased, upset, or meh about these results?

[Simfan34]

"We won".

Because everyone in the election night pretended to be happy with the results.

Wouldn't that be "nous avons gagné", however?

[Zanas]

"We won".

Because everyone in the election night pretended to be happy with the results.

Wouldn't that be "nous avons gagné", however?

In oral French, nobody ever uses the person "nous" anymore, and "on a gagné" is the typical rooting chant when one is victorious in sports or other fields.

As for the other question, one who dislikes the FN cannot be happy with those results. FN is settling everywhere, they are going to win something between 50 and 120 cantons, and that gives them proximity office holders who can then be credible candidates in next elections, especially the législatives. Not good.

[jaichind]

Vote share so far seems to be FN 25%, Left of all types 36%, Right of all types 37% which seems to match exit polls.

[MaxQue]

Among wierd things:

The left have odds of actually GAINING a department, Lozère.
Four tickets qualified for the 2nd round in Ambazac, Haute-Vienne (PS 27, FN 25, PCF 24, UMP 23).

[Associate Justice PiT]

Vote share so far seems to be FN 25%, Left of all types 36%, Right of all types 37% which seems to match exit polls.

     I find it a rather curious feature of French politics that the Gaullist right has managed to become an electorally viable entity with no benefit of FN. That is one thing about France that I wish the United States could emulate.

[Velasco]

As for the other question, one who dislikes the FN cannot be happy with those results. FN is settling everywhere, they are going to win something between 50 and 120 cantons, and that gives them proximity office holders who can then be credible candidates in next elections, especially the législatives. Not good.

No decent person should be happy, neither lefties nor mainstream right-wingers. I guess that the level of decency must not be so high among the UMP ranks. However, if I was a moderate among them I couldn't feel any reason to celebrate with the fascists at 25%.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's a bloodbath, but not quite as bloodbath-y as I (or most people) expected. I guess I must be happy that the PS guy (whom I know personally, and is a great guy) qualified for the runoff in my canton, though he'll lose in a landslide in the runoff.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Results in my precinct:
- UMP: 110 (32%), vs 41.8% in the whole canton
- FN: 89 (26%), vs 17%
- PS: 73 (21%), vs 18.6%
- FG: 28 (8%), vs 3.6%
- EELV: 25 (7%), vs 8.8%
- DVD: 21 (6%), vs 10.3%

- Invalid: 14 (2%)
- Abstention: 515 (59%)

Yay, 26% of my neighbors are fascist.

[jaichind]

It looks like a very good result for Sarkozy.  He is now in a strong position for 2017 to be the UMP candidate for President.

[jaichind]

For round 2, PS seems to indicate that their supporters should support the center-right over FN if a Left candidate did not make it into the second round and hopes the center-right does the same.  Sarkozy is not reciprocating by calling on UMP supports to abstain in the second round if it is FN vs Left runoff.  If I were FN I would call for FN supporters to back the center-right candidate in the second round if FN did not make it.  What FN should be afraid of in the second round is that everyone gang up against it.  To give an impression that FN and UMP made a behind the scene deal could work to break that.  It could galvanize the Left vote in the second round but the UMP would bear the brunt of that and not FN.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If I were FN I would call for FN supporters to back the center-right candidate in the second round if FN did not make it.

Then you really don't get what the FN is all about.

Also, LOL @ the idea that this is some sort of personal success for Sarkozy. About as much as the 2010 regionals were a success for Martine Aubry.

[jaichind]

If I were FN I would call for FN supporters to back the center-right candidate in the second round if FN did not make it.

Then you really don't get what the FN is all about.

Also, LOL @ the idea that this is some sort of personal success for Sarkozy. About as much as the 2010 regionals were a success for Martine Aubry.

I think I do get what FN is about with the "PS and UMP are really the same ..."  I totally agree that it is not in the nature of FN to do what I advise.  I was coming at it from a game theory point of view.  If the FN does take my advice there is a way out.  The rise of FN took place mostly under center-right rule at the center.  This time the ruling party is PS.  FN can say something like "Yes, PS and UMP are the same but this time we want to send a message to the ruling elites and their anti-people policies in Paris so vote center-right when FN are not in the fray."  Unlikely they will take my advice.

As for Sarkozy I think he should get a lot of credit for this UMP victory.  In terms of vote share the center-right and center-left are not that far off, but due to good alliance building especially with centrist parities by Sarkozy it is turning into a UMP landslide at the Department level.  After round 2 it will most likely be center-right controlling 80 some Departments and center-left around 20 with FN with 1 or 2 (Le Pen claims 2.)  This is a very impressive result give the vote shares involved.  I am pretty sure the UMP also see what Sarkozy has accomplished in these elections which can only help him in 2017. 

[Antonio the Sixth]

I think I do get what FN is about with the "PS and UMP are really the same ..."  I totally agree that it is not in the nature of FN to do what I advise.  I was coming at it from a game theory point of view.  If the FN does take my advice there is a way out.  The rise of FN took place mostly under center-right rule at the center.  This time the ruling party is PS.  FN can say something like "Yes, PS and UMP are the same but this time we want to send a message to the ruling elites and their anti-people policies in Paris so vote center-right when FN are not in the fray."  Unlikely they will take my advice.

This is blatantly false. The FN went from being an irrelevant outfit to polling at 10-15% during the Mitterrand years, and Le Pen qualified for the runoff after five years of Jospin as PM. Also, Sarkozy was actually the only French politician who managed to siphon off FN voters (though his efforts eventually backfired and he will never succeed again in this strategy). And Hollande's nonsense has propelled the current FN to new heights. There is absolutely no reason why they would enter in an open alliance with the UMP: their anti-establishment voters would feel betrayed, while their right-wing voters would have gone UMP anyway. Their might be some tacit support at the local level in specific areas, but Panzergirl herself has no interest in changing her line one bit.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This is more a reflection of the left's division than of the right's unity. The UMP has always been allied with the center-right, there's nothing new about that, and if anything, Sarkozy made this link weaker than it would have been under someone like Juppé or Le Maire. Seriously, the only person who can legitimately take "credit" for the right's success is Hollande.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Is there any chance the left will agree on a unity candidate next presidential race to raise the (meagre) chances of them entering the runoff?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is there any chance the left will agree on a unity candidate next presidential race to raise the (meagre) chances of them entering the runoff?

Not if Hollande and Valls continue sh*tting on FG and EELV as they have for the past three years.