France: Départementales 2015 - March 22/29, 2015
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  France: Départementales 2015 - March 22/29, 2015
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Author Topic: France: Départementales 2015 - March 22/29, 2015  (Read 20581 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #50 on: March 23, 2015, 10:06:38 AM »

I think I do get what FN is about with the "PS and UMP are really the same ..."  I totally agree that it is not in the nature of FN to do what I advise.  I was coming at it from a game theory point of view.  If the FN does take my advice there is a way out.  The rise of FN took place mostly under center-right rule at the center.  This time the ruling party is PS.  FN can say something like "Yes, PS and UMP are the same but this time we want to send a message to the ruling elites and their anti-people policies in Paris so vote center-right when FN are not in the fray."  Unlikely they will take my advice.

This is blatantly false. The FN went from being an irrelevant outfit to polling at 10-15% during the Mitterrand years, and Le Pen qualified for the runoff after five years of Jospin as PM. Also, Sarkozy was actually the only French politician who managed to siphon off FN voters (though his efforts eventually backfired and he will never succeed again in this strategy). And Hollande's nonsense has propelled the current FN to new heights. There is absolutely no reason why they would enter in an open alliance with the UMP: their anti-establishment voters would feel betrayed, while their right-wing voters would have gone UMP anyway. Their might be some tacit support at the local level in specific areas, but Panzergirl herself has no interest in changing her line one bit.


You are right.  I stand corrected.  I was more thinking about FN at the local level where its support went up a lot in the last decade but was nowhere until then. But I agree that at the national politics level FN was already a very significant force in the 1980s.

Just to be clear, I am not saying that FN should enter into an alliance with UMP.  I am saying FN should indicate to its supporters to vote in the second round to send a message to the ruling regime.  I suggest this as a way for FN to try to break the anti-FN alliance in the second round.
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
kataak
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« Reply #51 on: March 23, 2015, 10:17:58 AM »

One question to French people or those who knows:

Parties marked as "DIV"/Divers on most of the maps with results are mainly regionalist  (there are some in Alsace, Corsica etc.) parties or also some centre parties and non-partisan candidates? And that "Divers droite" and "Divers gauche/PRG" are just nonsense, can't they show names of that parties? Even on the official webpage with results (some ministry) there was such division. Strange.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #52 on: March 23, 2015, 10:27:05 AM »

One question to French people or those who knows:

Parties marked as "DIV"/Divers on most of the maps with results are mainly regionalist  (there are some in Alsace, Corsica etc.) parties or also some centre parties and non-partisan candidates? And that "Divers droite" and "Divers gauche/PRG" are just nonsense, can't they show names of that parties? Even on the official webpage with results (some ministry) there was such division. Strange.

Yes, the French Interior Ministry's labels are a complete joke. For an imperfect, but still much better tally, you can have a look at the newspapers' websites, or to sites like this. Or hell, even the French Wikipedia.
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swl
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« Reply #53 on: March 23, 2015, 10:51:26 AM »
« Edited: March 23, 2015, 11:07:57 AM by swl »

One question to French people or those who knows:

Parties marked as "DIV"/Divers on most of the maps with results are mainly regionalist  (there are some in Alsace, Corsica etc.) parties or also some centre parties and non-partisan candidates? And that "Divers droite" and "Divers gauche/PRG" are just nonsense, can't they show names of that parties? Even on the official webpage with results (some ministry) there was such division. Strange.
There is a bunch of non-partisan candidates among the Divers. Regarding the "divers gauche" and "divers droite", if the candidates register themselves as "right" or "left" instead of "UMP" or "PS"(there are many possible reasons for that), I am not sure it's the role of the election officials to impose them a label.
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jaichind
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« Reply #54 on: March 23, 2015, 11:33:38 AM »

Just so I am clear.  What are the rules for winning on the first round and what are the rules for making it into the second round.  I assume to win on the first round a candidate must clear 50% of the vote.  And for making it in to the second round a list must be in the two 2 OR win more than 20% of the vote.  Did I get that right ?
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #55 on: March 23, 2015, 11:46:23 AM »

Just so I am clear.  What are the rules for winning on the first round and what are the rules for making it into the second round.  I assume to win on the first round a candidate must clear 50% of the vote and 25% of all registered voters.  And for making it in to the second round a list must be in the two 2 OR win more than 12.5% of all registered voters.  Did I get that right ?

FTFY.
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jaichind
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« Reply #56 on: March 23, 2015, 02:21:31 PM »

Just so I am clear.  What are the rules for winning on the first round and what are the rules for making it into the second round.  I assume to win on the first round a candidate must clear 50% of the vote and 25% of all registered voters.  And for making it in to the second round a list must be in the two 2 OR win more than 12.5% of all registered voters.  Did I get that right ?

FTFY.

Thanks so much.
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jaichind
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« Reply #57 on: March 23, 2015, 02:23:05 PM »

By my calculation the Left vote share is actually now 36.8% vs 36.6% for the Right with FN at 25.2%.  This makes the Right sweep at the Department level even more impressive.  This is totally a function of the splintering of the Left vote and the relative unity of the Right.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #58 on: March 23, 2015, 02:25:05 PM »

By my calculation the Left vote share is actually now 36.8% vs 36.6% for the Right with FN at 25.2%.  This makes the Right sweep at the Department level even more impressive.  This is totally a function of the splintering of the Left vote and the relative unity of the Right.

Yes. The lesson to be taken from this is that Hollande must urgently make amends with FG and EELV if he wants to avoid total annihilation in 2017. Although honestly, I don't think he even cares at this point.
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jaichind
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« Reply #59 on: March 23, 2015, 02:41:47 PM »

Speaking of FG, I am looking at the official website for results.  It seems some PCF lists ran as PCF and other FG.  Why is this?  I thought PCF members are pretty much running as FG these days.

As for PS not working with FG I assume that has to do with the circumstances of Mélenchon leaving PS back in 2008.  We Chinese have a saying that some people "rather give up money to an outside enemy but not one penny for an internal traitor."
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #60 on: March 23, 2015, 03:04:47 PM »

Yes, the French Interior Ministry's labels are a complete joke. For an imperfect, but still much better tally, you can have a look at the newspapers' websites, or to sites like [link]. Or hell, even the French Wikipedia.


Thanks.

One question to French people or those who knows:

Parties marked as "DIV"/Divers on most of the maps with results are mainly regionalist  (there are some in Alsace, Corsica etc.) parties or also some centre parties and non-partisan candidates? And that "Divers droite" and "Divers gauche/PRG" are just nonsense, can't they show names of that parties? Even on the official webpage with results (some ministry) there was such division. Strange.
There is a bunch of non-partisan candidates among the Divers. Regarding the "divers gauche" and "divers droite", if the candidates register themselves as "right" or "left" instead of "UMP" or "PS"(there are many possible reasons for that), I am not sure it's the role of the election officials to impose them a label.

I am not sure if I understood all: candidates register themselves with such labels during candidates official registration? Weird. But thank you for the answer.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #61 on: March 23, 2015, 03:22:01 PM »

Wierdly, when people were expecting around 5 triangulaires (runoffs with 3 candidates) due to low tunrout, there is 327 cantons were 3 candidates qualified. And one with 4 candidates.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #62 on: March 23, 2015, 03:35:48 PM »

Wierdly, when people were expecting around 5 triangulaires (runoffs with 3 candidates) due to low tunrout, there is 327 cantons were 3 candidates qualified. And one with 4 candidates.

Turnout is the key. People were expecting something in the low 40s, but in the end it was over 50%. This made the effective thresholds for candidates a bit lower (around 25%, on average).
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swl
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« Reply #63 on: March 24, 2015, 05:00:19 AM »

I am not sure if I understood all: candidates register themselves with such labels during candidates official registration? Weird. But thank you for the answer.
A common example is to take the name "the right/the left for name of the local place" (la droite/la gauche pour...).

There was no right-wing candidate in my precinct, but for example in the neigbhouring precinct the right-wing candidates called themselves "Citoyens autrement" (Citizens Differently?) with no reference to the UMP. In local elections it's often better to be seen as distant from the national parties (especially in rural areas).
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Simfan34
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« Reply #64 on: March 24, 2015, 01:09:11 PM »

"We won".

Because everyone in the election night pretended to be happy with the results.

Wouldn't that be "nous avons gagné", however?
In oral French, nobody ever uses the person "nous" anymore, and "on a gagné" is the typical rooting chant when one is victorious in sports or other fields.

I see. As if things in spoken French weren't difficult enough to tell apart as is.
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« Reply #65 on: March 24, 2015, 01:10:54 PM »

This government, the most centralist and region-hating one in decades, has decided to eliminate the 'régionaliste' label for electoral purposes (REG) and they've classified all such candidates under the horrendous catch-all 'Divers' label. Like last year in the locals, the Interior Ministry apparatchiks have also done dark magic with FG candidates in order to dilute their strength on official numbers. For example, a number of EELV/FG binomes like those in Isère are classified as DVG; among plenty of other silly things. The use of FG, PCF and PG labels for FG candidates is another example. France's electoral management is the worst in the world.

Also, jaichind, stop saying words.
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jaichind
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« Reply #66 on: March 24, 2015, 02:15:27 PM »

It is interesting that there are only 264 first round winners in 2015 whereas it was 460 back in 2011.  This seems to indicate the large number of 3-way and even 4-way battles with FN being significant force pretty much everywhere and FG and EELV being a significant force in certain areas.
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swl
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« Reply #67 on: March 24, 2015, 03:40:50 PM »

Speaking of FG, I am looking at the official website for results.  It seems some PCF lists ran as PCF and other FG.  Why is this?  I thought PCF members are pretty much running as FG these days.
At the local level many PCF candidates distance themselves from the FG because they want to keep working with the PS (they have been working together for years or even decades in local councils). And in general, the PdG and the PCF diverge on this issue.

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MaxQue
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« Reply #68 on: March 24, 2015, 03:48:15 PM »

Speaking of FG, I am looking at the official website for results.  It seems some PCF lists ran as PCF and other FG.  Why is this?  I thought PCF members are pretty much running as FG these days.
At the local level many PCF candidates distance themselves from the FG because they want to keep working with the PS (they have been working together for years or even decades in local councils). And in general, the PdG and the PCF diverge on this issue.



Also, a couple of PCF candidates withdrew from PS-PCF duels due to the "left withdrawal" tradition (when left parties face each other in the 2nd round, traditionnally, the 2nd withdraws). The reverse happened too.
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windjammer
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« Reply #69 on: March 28, 2015, 08:00:41 AM »

So I guess I will have to vote for "UMP"...
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #70 on: March 28, 2015, 08:15:15 AM »


In which canton do you live?
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windjammer
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« Reply #71 on: March 28, 2015, 08:39:40 AM »

I don't know exactly the name. But the Union left list has been eliminated.
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Colbert
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« Reply #72 on: March 29, 2015, 04:36:24 AM »

Since 3 days, i study every canton


at this time, 67 departements scrolled

conseillers elected by parti :

UMP   942
PS   579
DVD   566
UDI   241
DVG   171
FN   148
PCF   68
PRG   31
EELV   19
MODEM   9



funny fact : the departement of Lozčre (conservative since Napoléon... would goes to the left (14 left cons., 12 right cons.)


i hope to end this work before the results^^
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swl
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« Reply #73 on: March 29, 2015, 12:53:55 PM »

What could be considered a good or bad result for the different parties tonight? I found this interesting:
 
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jaichind
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« Reply #74 on: March 29, 2015, 01:12:42 PM »

Going by

http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/departementales/

It seems that Le Figaro estimates that the Center-Left will control 27-31 Departments.  This seems to be an improvement from the worst case scenarios last week for PS where they might end up with 20 or so.
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