France: Départementales 2015 - March 22/29, 2015

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) -- Former President Nicolas Sarkozy’s UMP party won the most votes in the first round of French local elections, exit polls said.
UMP took between 29% and 32% of vote nationwide, according to exits polls by CSA and Ifop. Combined with centrist allies, it took around 37%
National Front took between 24.5% and 26.3%: polls
President Francois Hollande’s Socialists took between 19.7% and 21.4%; combined with leftists and ecologist allies it took around 35%: polls
NOTE: Pre-election polls had shown the National Front and UMP neck-and-neck
Just over 51% of registered voters voted, more than expected

[jaichind]

Valls says Left had `Honorable score' in Local Vote.  If exit polls are right and the Left takes around 35% of the vote then would that not be the worst result ever for the Left? Of course a lot of it has to do with the surge of FN.  Still, even if FN is kept out of first place I fail to see how the Left had a 'Honorable score' with the worst result in history.

[jaichind]

Looking at results at

http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/departementales/2015/03/22/01054-20150322ARTWWW00028-departementales-les-resultats-canton-par-canton.php

It seems FN not doing that great.  On the other hand the areas where the FN are the strongest are not in yet.  But overall it seems that the exit polls are accurate as far as FN levels of support is concerned.

[jaichind]

Just sampling results from different departments and comparing them to 2014 European elections it seems that FN should get around 25% of the vote just like 2014 European elections.

[jaichind]

Vote share so far seems to be FN 25%, Left of all types 36%, Right of all types 37% which seems to match exit polls.

[jaichind]

It looks like a very good result for Sarkozy.  He is now in a strong position for 2017 to be the UMP candidate for President.

[jaichind]

For round 2, PS seems to indicate that their supporters should support the center-right over FN if a Left candidate did not make it into the second round and hopes the center-right does the same.  Sarkozy is not reciprocating by calling on UMP supports to abstain in the second round if it is FN vs Left runoff.  If I were FN I would call for FN supporters to back the center-right candidate in the second round if FN did not make it.  What FN should be afraid of in the second round is that everyone gang up against it.  To give an impression that FN and UMP made a behind the scene deal could work to break that.  It could galvanize the Left vote in the second round but the UMP would bear the brunt of that and not FN.

[jaichind]

If I were FN I would call for FN supporters to back the center-right candidate in the second round if FN did not make it.

Then you really don't get what the FN is all about.

Also, LOL @ the idea that this is some sort of personal success for Sarkozy. About as much as the 2010 regionals were a success for Martine Aubry.

I think I do get what FN is about with the "PS and UMP are really the same ..."  I totally agree that it is not in the nature of FN to do what I advise.  I was coming at it from a game theory point of view.  If the FN does take my advice there is a way out.  The rise of FN took place mostly under center-right rule at the center.  This time the ruling party is PS.  FN can say something like "Yes, PS and UMP are the same but this time we want to send a message to the ruling elites and their anti-people policies in Paris so vote center-right when FN are not in the fray."  Unlikely they will take my advice.

As for Sarkozy I think he should get a lot of credit for this UMP victory.  In terms of vote share the center-right and center-left are not that far off, but due to good alliance building especially with centrist parities by Sarkozy it is turning into a UMP landslide at the Department level.  After round 2 it will most likely be center-right controlling 80 some Departments and center-left around 20 with FN with 1 or 2 (Le Pen claims 2.)  This is a very impressive result give the vote shares involved.  I am pretty sure the UMP also see what Sarkozy has accomplished in these elections which can only help him in 2017. 

[jaichind]

I think I do get what FN is about with the "PS and UMP are really the same ..."  I totally agree that it is not in the nature of FN to do what I advise.  I was coming at it from a game theory point of view.  If the FN does take my advice there is a way out.  The rise of FN took place mostly under center-right rule at the center.  This time the ruling party is PS.  FN can say something like "Yes, PS and UMP are the same but this time we want to send a message to the ruling elites and their anti-people policies in Paris so vote center-right when FN are not in the fray."  Unlikely they will take my advice.

This is blatantly false. The FN went from being an irrelevant outfit to polling at 10-15% during the Mitterrand years, and Le Pen qualified for the runoff after five years of Jospin as PM. Also, Sarkozy was actually the only French politician who managed to siphon off FN voters (though his efforts eventually backfired and he will never succeed again in this strategy). And Hollande's nonsense has propelled the current FN to new heights. There is absolutely no reason why they would enter in an open alliance with the UMP: their anti-establishment voters would feel betrayed, while their right-wing voters would have gone UMP anyway. Their might be some tacit support at the local level in specific areas, but Panzergirl herself has no interest in changing her line one bit.

You are right.  I stand corrected.  I was more thinking about FN at the local level where its support went up a lot in the last decade but was nowhere until then. But I agree that at the national politics level FN was already a very significant force in the 1980s.

Just to be clear, I am not saying that FN should enter into an alliance with UMP.  I am saying FN should indicate to its supporters to vote in the second round to send a message to the ruling regime.  I suggest this as a way for FN to try to break the anti-FN alliance in the second round.

[jaichind]

Just so I am clear.  What are the rules for winning on the first round and what are the rules for making it into the second round.  I assume to win on the first round a candidate must clear 50% of the vote.  And for making it in to the second round a list must be in the two 2 OR win more than 20% of the vote.  Did I get that right ?

[jaichind]

Just so I am clear.  What are the rules for winning on the first round and what are the rules for making it into the second round.  I assume to win on the first round a candidate must clear 50% of the vote and 25% of all registered voters.  And for making it in to the second round a list must be in the two 2 OR win more than 12.5% of all registered voters.  Did I get that right ?

FTFY.

Thanks so much.

[jaichind]

By my calculation the Left vote share is actually now 36.8% vs 36.6% for the Right with FN at 25.2%.  This makes the Right sweep at the Department level even more impressive.  This is totally a function of the splintering of the Left vote and the relative unity of the Right.

[jaichind]

Speaking of FG, I am looking at the official website for results.  It seems some PCF lists ran as PCF and other FG.  Why is this?  I thought PCF members are pretty much running as FG these days.

As for PS not working with FG I assume that has to do with the circumstances of Mélenchon leaving PS back in 2008.  We Chinese have a saying that some people "rather give up money to an outside enemy but not one penny for an internal traitor."

[jaichind]

It is interesting that there are only 264 first round winners in 2015 whereas it was 460 back in 2011.  This seems to indicate the large number of 3-way and even 4-way battles with FN being significant force pretty much everywhere and FG and EELV being a significant force in certain areas.

[jaichind]

Going by

http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/departementales/

It seems that Le Figaro estimates that the Center-Left will control 27-31 Departments.  This seems to be an improvement from the worst case scenarios last week for PS where they might end up with 20 or so.

[jaichind]

I have a question on how they calculate vote share on

http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/departementales-2015/FE.html

Do they only count vote share based on the cantons that voted today or do they included those results from last week which ended up producing a winner on the first round and then add that to the votes counted today ?

[jaichind]

Looking at the Vaucluse and Aisne results how could there be a case where the number of seats for a party be a odd number.  I thought every party had to come up with list where there is a man and a women.  Unless there are cases where there are joint lists between different parties.

[jaichind]

March 29 (AFP) -- The deputy leader of France's far-right National Front said he was "sure" the party would not win any local councils in Sunday's election.
With results still coming in from around the country, deputy leader Florian Philippot told AFP "it is sure" the party would not win any councils, despite winning dozens of seats across the country.

[jaichind]

"Never... has our political family won so many councils," Sarkozy said.

I am not sure this is true.  It could be on his comment on the size of the number of Departments that has flipped.  But in terms of absolute number of Department under control, my understanding is in the late 1980s and early 1990s the center-right controlled nearly 70 out of 95 Departments.  It seems tonight the center-right will be on route to controlling 66 or so out of the 98 Departments. 

[jaichind]

I noticed that all things equal the center-left did well in 3 way run-offs when in the second round it came down to center-left vs center-right vs FN.  More often than not the center-left won these races as opposed to the center-right.  In many of these cases the FN often came in second which made FN tactical voting for the center-right candidate unlikely.