France: Départementales 2015 - March 22/29, 2015

[Antonio the Sixth]

Brace yourself...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Broadly speaking, PS should stay with only 10 to 25 départements.

Jesus F. Christ.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ifop did a poll using a more advanced methodology (by selecting a representative sample of cantons and specifically asking respondents based on the actual offer of candidates in their canton), but their results came out pretty much the same:

FN 30%
UMP 29%
PS 19%
FG 6%
DVD 5%
DVG 5%
EELV 3%
Others 3%

Meanwhile, in "dédiabolisation"/'TEH FN HAS CHANGED!11' news, a FN candidate insinuated France should nuke boats (which he called 'trash-boats') carrying illegal immigrants from Africa. And that's only one picking in a field of many, many charming FN candidates.

Doesn't that put the combined right at 34% and the combined left at 33%? If so, these numbers don't look too bleak (although of course vote transfers from FG and EELV to PS are going to be atrocious).

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's really a miracle that turnout is so high. I thought it would barely break 40%.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Live coverage (in french): http://www.france2.fr/direct

[Antonio the Sixth]

I like the BBC's lead: "Sarkozy 'staves off France far-right': Ex-president Nicolas Sarkozy's UMP and its allies push the National Front into second in the first round of French local elections, exit polls suggest".

So Sarkozy "saves the day", then? Interesting way to put it. Actually, most of the headlines seem to apparently credit Sarkozy for the performance of the "Sarkozy party", otherwise known as the UMP. The question is- will the French see it that way?

Most French people don't, and won't, give a sh*t about these elections. They will change nothing either way (which is, on balance, a good thing for Sarkozy, since he's probably favored to win 2017 at this point).

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's a bloodbath, but not quite as bloodbath-y as I (or most people) expected. I guess I must be happy that the PS guy (whom I know personally, and is a great guy) qualified for the runoff in my canton, though he'll lose in a landslide in the runoff.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Results in my precinct:
- UMP: 110 (32%), vs 41.8% in the whole canton
- FN: 89 (26%), vs 17%
- PS: 73 (21%), vs 18.6%
- FG: 28 (8%), vs 3.6%
- EELV: 25 (7%), vs 8.8%
- DVD: 21 (6%), vs 10.3%

- Invalid: 14 (2%)
- Abstention: 515 (59%)

Yay, 26% of my neighbors are fascist.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If I were FN I would call for FN supporters to back the center-right candidate in the second round if FN did not make it.

Then you really don't get what the FN is all about.

Also, LOL @ the idea that this is some sort of personal success for Sarkozy. About as much as the 2010 regionals were a success for Martine Aubry.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I think I do get what FN is about with the "PS and UMP are really the same ..."  I totally agree that it is not in the nature of FN to do what I advise.  I was coming at it from a game theory point of view.  If the FN does take my advice there is a way out.  The rise of FN took place mostly under center-right rule at the center.  This time the ruling party is PS.  FN can say something like "Yes, PS and UMP are the same but this time we want to send a message to the ruling elites and their anti-people policies in Paris so vote center-right when FN are not in the fray."  Unlikely they will take my advice.

This is blatantly false. The FN went from being an irrelevant outfit to polling at 10-15% during the Mitterrand years, and Le Pen qualified for the runoff after five years of Jospin as PM. Also, Sarkozy was actually the only French politician who managed to siphon off FN voters (though his efforts eventually backfired and he will never succeed again in this strategy). And Hollande's nonsense has propelled the current FN to new heights. There is absolutely no reason why they would enter in an open alliance with the UMP: their anti-establishment voters would feel betrayed, while their right-wing voters would have gone UMP anyway. Their might be some tacit support at the local level in specific areas, but Panzergirl herself has no interest in changing her line one bit.

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This is more a reflection of the left's division than of the right's unity. The UMP has always been allied with the center-right, there's nothing new about that, and if anything, Sarkozy made this link weaker than it would have been under someone like Juppé or Le Maire. Seriously, the only person who can legitimately take "credit" for the right's success is Hollande.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is there any chance the left will agree on a unity candidate next presidential race to raise the (meagre) chances of them entering the runoff?

Not if Hollande and Valls continue sh*tting on FG and EELV as they have for the past three years.

[Antonio the Sixth]

One question to French people or those who knows:

Parties marked as "DIV"/Divers on most of the maps with results are mainly regionalist  (there are some in Alsace, Corsica etc.) parties or also some centre parties and non-partisan candidates? And that "Divers droite" and "Divers gauche/PRG" are just nonsense, can't they show names of that parties? Even on the official webpage with results (some ministry) there was such division. Strange.

Yes, the French Interior Ministry's labels are a complete joke. For an imperfect, but still much better tally, you can have a look at the newspapers' websites, or to sites like this. Or hell, even the French Wikipedia.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Just so I am clear.  What are the rules for winning on the first round and what are the rules for making it into the second round.  I assume to win on the first round a candidate must clear 50% of the vote and 25% of all registered voters.  And for making it in to the second round a list must be in the two 2 OR win more than 12.5% of all registered voters.  Did I get that right ?

FTFY.

[Antonio the Sixth]

By my calculation the Left vote share is actually now 36.8% vs 36.6% for the Right with FN at 25.2%.  This makes the Right sweep at the Department level even more impressive.  This is totally a function of the splintering of the Left vote and the relative unity of the Right.

Yes. The lesson to be taken from this is that Hollande must urgently make amends with FG and EELV if he wants to avoid total annihilation in 2017. Although honestly, I don't think he even cares at this point.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wierdly, when people were expecting around 5 triangulaires (runoffs with 3 candidates) due to low tunrout, there is 327 cantons were 3 candidates qualified. And one with 4 candidates.

Turnout is the key. People were expecting something in the low 40s, but in the end it was over 50%. This made the effective thresholds for candidates a bit lower (around 25%, on average).

[Antonio the Sixth]

So I guess I will have to vote for "UMP"...

In which canton do you live?

[Antonio the Sixth]

What did FN councilors do in hung Departments? Did they endorse the right-wing candidate in some instance?

[Antonio the Sixth]

How many did the left win then? If I count I get 30 excluding Tarn et Garone. So Bérézina it is!!

You should add Paris, Guadeloupe and Martinique, which weren't up for election because their political organization is different, but which technically count as Départements. So that's 33.

[Antonio the Sixth]

How many did the left win then? If I count I get 30 excluding Tarn et Garone. So Bérézina it is!!

You should add Paris, Guadeloupe and Martinique, which weren't up for election because their political organization is different, but which technically count as Départements. So that's 33.

Or 34, if you could Gérard Collomb (PS), president of the Grand Lyon, which is technically a collectivité territoriale on par with a department.

Does that mean that the Rhône Département has lost all jurisdiction over the greater Lyon, and that the latter has all the competences of a Département? And if so, why didn't they do the same with Marseille, which is even bigger?

[Antonio the Sixth]

How many did the left win then? If I count I get 30 excluding Tarn et Garone. So Bérézina it is!!

You should add Paris, Guadeloupe and Martinique, which weren't up for election because their political organization is different, but which technically count as Départements. So that's 33.

Or 34, if you could Gérard Collomb (PS), president of the Grand Lyon, which is technically a collectivité territoriale on par with a department.

Does that mean that the Rhône Département has lost all jurisdiction over the greater Lyon, and that the latter has all the competences of a Département? And if so, why didn't they do the same with Marseille, which is even bigger?

Yes, the Rhône has for all intents and purposes lost all jurisdiction over the Grand Lyon. The reason this came to be is that there was, in 2012, an agreement between Collomb and Michel Mercier (the then-president of the CG). On the other hand, the new Aix-Marseille Métropole was rammed down everybody's throat by the government and the local politicians by and large hate it (which is part of the reason why Guérini did so well in the senatorial elections last year), so I suppose that making the new structure even more powerful would make everybody go bonkers. On top of that, it's the Bouches-du-Rhône, all their politicians are crazy and hate each other's guts, so the chance for a Collomb-Mercier agreement is nil.

Fun fact: The new Rhône department is non-contiguous.

Cool, let's make the French territorial map even messier!

Really the common sense solution is to abolish Departments and restore the 20some regions map with increased power.