OH-Sen: Portman tied with Strickland; crushing Sittenfeld

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, that's what the GoP stated in 2012, eventhough they didn't have a candidate to take out Sherrod Brown that they were confident about Romney's chances, and Obama won it, convincingly.

Portman got a race on his hands and Ted Strickland can take him down 51-49.

[Türkisblau]

Somewhere in Cleveland a community college student named LeBron Fitzgerald just cried in terror.

[TJ in Oregon]

What are Portman's favorables in Ohio?


Since Ohio is slightly more Republican than the nation as a whole Presidentially, and loves their pragmatic conservative GOPers at the state level, I'm thinking it would take a scandal or huge wave to take Portman out, even if Hillary carries Ohio. He and Kasich seem like the quintessential Ohio Republicans to me.

Any of you Ohio experts know?

That is the question; more specifically, how well known and well viewed are Strickland and Portman? I wish the PPP poll had included something like that in addition to the matchup numbers because I'm curious who has better name ID between the two. My hunch is that there are more people who don't know who Portman is than who don't know who Strickland is. I also suspect there are more conservatives who are feigning undecidedness against Portman than there are liberals against Strickland and who will eventually come home. I do think Portman will eke out a win unless Hillary wins in a blowout.

[hopper]

Strickland is a good candidate for the seat I'm not surprised to see him tied with Portman.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Burr and Rubio will fall before Portman, and NJ doesn't have  a 2016 senate election.

[Free Bird]

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The first preference is the 272 route and then the 290 which Hilary is capable of. I outlined NJ and NH because Dems are waiting on Hassen and what happens in NJ with Menendez, by June 2016, hopefully Dems have this seat filled with HOLT.  But, the senate map should be Dems +4-5 seats.


New Dems

HOLT of NJ special must take place in June 2016 or this seat won't be held until 2018
Hassen if she decides to get in

Strickland PICKUP
Sestak PICKUP
Feingold PICKUP
DUCKWORTH or Robin Kelly Pickup
Chris Van Hollen 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Burr and Rubio will fall before Portman, and NJ doesn't have  a 2016 senate election.

Portman is definitely much more vulnerable than Burr at this point given that Strickland is running (although I agree with TJ that it would've been much better if this poll had included both name recognition and favorability numbers).  Burr's vulnerability will depend a lot on both the national mood in 2016 and the strength of the Democratic nominee.  For example, if the Democrats nominate Kay Hagen then we won't pickup Burr's seat (although I suppose it could still be used as a decoy to force the Republicans to waste some money) whereas someone like Janet Cowell could beat Burr with a strong campaign in the right environment. 

As for Florida, he's almost certainly not running for re-election (he's pretty clearly running for President and has made enough noise about not running for President and re-election that it'd be hard for him to get away with changing his mind at the last second).  However, Democratic fortunes in Florida will depend on who we nominate.  If we nominate Wasserman Schultz or Grayson, not only will we lose this race, but it won't even be that close.  If Patrick Murphy runs and wins the nomination (ideally without a bloody primary), this will become a top Democratic pickup opportunity (especially given that Jeff Atwater would hardly be a lock in his primary, the Republicans could easily end up with a weaker nominee).

[Brittain33]

Am I crazy, or isn't this poll a very big deal? Yes, Strickland is known statewide. That alone wouldn't make him tied with an inoffensive Republican incumbent who won in a landslide last time. No, same sex marriage would not account for this.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Am I crazy, or isn't this poll a very big deal? Yes, Strickland is known statewide. That alone wouldn't make him tied with an inoffensive Republican incumbent who won in a landslide last time. No, same sex marriage would not account for this.

Gee, no Republican has won the W.H. without winning OHIO.  And usually, Ohio swings like in 1964, 2004 and Obama victories, with NM and NM isn't a swing state anymore.  I think the chances of a Strickland victory is high in those type of odds.

[Niemeyerite]

Where's Adam?

[Maxwell]

Am I crazy, or isn't this poll a very big deal? Yes, Strickland is known statewide. That alone wouldn't make him tied with an inoffensive Republican incumbent who won in a landslide last time. No, same sex marriage would not account for this.

Most polls have Portman's name recognition at a paltry 60% or so. Most polls show Strickland as far higher. And I'm sure some people have warmed up to Strickland since his Governorship. Still, I'm not sure this will last.