McClatchy-Marist Poll: Hillary starts to feel the heat already

[IceSpear]

So, Hillary already dropped 5% or so this week compared to previous polls and she'll likely drop another 5% right after she announces her run.

Creating a tied race already.

And in the end she might lose too (maybe even in a landslide).

I told you Hillary-fetishists early about this, but you were not listening ...

LOL, is this a joke post? "She'll likely drop 5% right after she announces her run?" "Lose in a landslide?" What exactly are you basing this on?

The fact that you're trying to spin Hillary leading by 4-14 points as a bad thing is hilarious. The last four presidential elections were decided by 4, 7, 3, and 0 points. Polls go up and down. Get some perspective please.

[IceSpear]

Note the strange bedfellows. If the people backing you up in arguments that Hillary isn't a sure thing are also people who want Scott Walker to be elected President, check yourself. You may be getting duped.

I'm not getting "duped" by anyone. I'm just not a blind believer in the "Hillary will sail to victory next year" theory. There are too many of them here anyway. As much as I had a good feeling about Obama's election chances in 2008 and 2012, I have a bad feeling about Hillary's chances. It's a 50/50-mix of her own baggage and persona and the fact that 2016 could see record lows in turnout, like in 2000, and a Democratic fatigue after 8 years of Obama. All this is toxic and allows a Republican victory.

Could that have anything to do with the fact that you liked Obama but dislike Hillary? Surely not...

Democratic fatigue? That's possible, it could hurt among independents. But please knock it off with the "low turnout" talking point. Dozens (hundreds?) of polls have shown that Democrats like Hillary and are enthusiastic for her. You guys choose to ignore this to sustain your confirmation bias. Empirical evidence > comments on the Atlas Forum and NYT. Sorry, but that's a fact. And by the way, turnout was high even for Kerry, and Dems want Hillary far more than they wanted him.

[IceSpear]

Obviously I'm not predicting the gloom and doom that Branson is saying, but this is certainly concerning.

I don't see what's concerning about it. Pretty much all of the forum has already agreed long ago that Hillary is not going to win in a crushing massive landslide, and now when the numbers (against only Walker, I may add) start to reflect that, it means she's destined to keep falling and will lose in a landslide?

I mean, just another interesting phrase from that post: "she might even lose"? No sh[inks] she might lose. A presidential election is never a sure thing 20 months in advance. It's not like some elections where the person is leading by 50 points and is a foregone conclusion (*cough*).

[IceSpear]

IceSpear, don't tell me that a lead that substantial that you flaunting constantly being cut in HALF IN A WEEK isn't reason for alarm

When did I ever flaunt this?

Like I said, I (along with the rest of the Forum) has already accepted that Hillary isn't going to win in a massive landslide a long time ago. So why would I be concerned if the polls begin to reflect a more modest win? Not to mention the fact that: a) this is a single poll and b) only Walker is outperforming McCain in it.

[IceSpear]

All I want to say IceSpear is: Just don't be too surprised (or disappointed) if President-elect Scott Walker or Jeb Bush give their victory speech on Nov. 8, 2016 - while a (crying ?) Hillary Clinton announces her retirement from politics. For good.

Hillary A) does not fire up the Democratic base and B) she may very well be a reason why Indies will stay home in droves. It all happened back in 2000 too (and 2016 is shaping up like 2000 again). There's no reason to believe that 2016 will be a high turnout election like 2008/2012, which will favour the Republicans (especially after the Dem. disaster in 2014).

I'll ask you again how you feel about her chances in a few months when she has announced her candidacy and already has negative favorable ratings and trails Bush and Walker in the polls ...

Except I've never said or thought Hillary was guaranteed to be the next president. So I'm not sure what your point is there.

As I've already said, you're objectively wrong about her not firing up the Democratic base. Every poll proves otherwise. Empirical evidence > anecdotal evidence and your personal feelings.

LOL, okay. Only time will tell on that, so I guess we'll see.

[IceSpear]

Favorability ratings usually drop substantially as the ads begin. If Hillary numbers are at just 48/45 now then it will be in negative in no time. Walker has a lot of breathing room.

Hillary is so little-known by the general public that I'm sure a few negative ads will really define her.

Yes, and there will be no negative ads against the Republicans, only Hillary.