California 2014 Statewide Races by CD

[Miles]

GOVERNOR


LT. GOVERNOR


SEC. OF STATE


CONTROLLER


TREASURER


INSURANCE COMMISSIONER


ATTORNEY GENERAL


AVERAGE

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Great work as usual Miles, particularly highlighting the notable vote-splitting between the various offices up for election.

Obviously Brown was the strongest Dem candidate in 2014, not sure who the strongest Republican candidate was though - I'm guessing either Peterson or Swearengin, although there could have been weak Democrats running for those posts.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Great work as usual Miles, particularly highlighting the notable vote-splitting between the various offices up for election.

Obviously Brown was the strongest Dem candidate in 2014, not sure who the strongest Republican candidate was though - I'm guessing either Peterson or Swearengin, although there could have been weak Democrats running for those posts.

Swearengin was probably the strongest Republican running against the weakest Democrat, Betty Yee. I think the LA Times even endorsed the Republican for Controller.


And as usual Miles, we bow down to you!

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

You forgot Attorney General.

[Miles]

^ Thanks, I added it. Must have forgot to upload it in the set with the others.

[Senator Cris]

Great work!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Great work!

[Boston Bread]

So it seems the problem with Valadao's district isn't the turnout like I thought but rather his personal popularity and poor democratic campaigns.
I wonder in what year will be the next to see a CA Democratic house incumbent lose re-election (hasn't happened since the 90's), especially if the independent commission is overthrown.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

So it seems the problem with Valadao's district isn't the turnout like I thought but rather his personal popularity and poor democratic campaigns.
I wonder in what year will be the next to see a CA Democratic house incumbent lose re-election (hasn't happened since the 90's), especially if the independent commission is overthrown.

Bera and Costa were very close; both had to go down to the absentees for a final call. I think that Costa won by a few hundred votes. Bera won by a couple thousand, I believe.

[politicallefty]

A lot of districts in California just had bad turnout (the worst predominantly in the Central Valley and SoCal). CA-16 is a prime example of low turnout in a midterm election. Brown's margin was less than half of Obama's in 2012. Brown's performance in CA-07 (Bera's suburban Sacramento district) looks to be good cause for optimism. Obama only got 51% in that district in a presidential year, while Brown got over 56%. Considering how terrible turnout was last year, I'm rather optimistic that we can at least hold the 39 seats we have, even if the current map holds for the remainder of the decade.

As I've mentioned before, the top targets for Democrats should be CA-10 and CA-21 (the only Obama/GOP-held districts in the state).

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

A lot of districts in California just had bad turnout (the worst predominantly in the Central Valley and SoCal). CA-16 is a prime example of low turnout in a midterm election. Brown's margin was less than half of Obama's in 2012. Brown's performance in CA-07 (Bera's suburban Sacramento district) looks to be good cause for optimism. Obama only got 51% in that district in a presidential year, while Brown got over 56%. Considering how terrible turnout was last year, I'm rather optimistic that we can at least hold the 39 seats we have, even if the current map holds for the remainder of the decade.

As I've mentioned before, the top targets for Democrats should be CA-10 and CA-21 (the only Obama/GOP-held districts in the state).

Speaking of Brown doing well in CA-07, I compiled the results for Folsom (the most conservative part of the district) and Brown actually beat Kashkari. I'm not sure if it included absentees or not though.

Edit: I don't remember the exact results, but I think the margin was about 50 votes out of 20,000 or so.

Edit 2: My results show Brown getting 10,451 votes to Kashkari's 10,400.