Rasmussen - Kerry+1 in Florida
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  Rasmussen - Kerry+1 in Florida
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Author Topic: Rasmussen - Kerry+1 in Florida  (Read 2443 times)
The Vorlon
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« on: April 14, 2004, 02:08:53 PM »

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Florida_April.htm

+/- 4.4%
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Ben.
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« Reply #1 on: April 14, 2004, 02:11:59 PM »


Surpised that there still is a Kerry lead even so solidly within the margin of error, personally I would be expecting Bush +2% or so… ahh well its not all bad I suppose…  
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2 on: April 14, 2004, 02:28:57 PM »

There was a poll out that showed Bush+8 in FL about a week ago...so who knows.

I give Kerry a 25% chance of winning FL.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #3 on: April 14, 2004, 02:33:04 PM »
« Edited: April 15, 2004, 08:32:52 AM by The Vorlon »


Surpised that there still is a Kerry lead even so solidly within the margin of error, personally I would be expecting Bush +2% or so… ahh well its not all bad I suppose…  

3.7
-2.0
5.2
6.1
-6.2
-8.0
0.1
-0.8
-4.1
6.4
-7.7
-5.3
7.9
-1.1
1.3
4.0
-5.6
-5.9
2.2
-12.5
0.7
5.5
-1.7
5.8
1.3
-8.3
1.0

Rasmussen is a sample of 500 people, which is quite a small sample size.  

The series of numbers above is the difference between Kerry and Bush on Rasmussen's one day samples used in their national tracking poll, also of 500 people, just to illistrate the statistical noise of a 500 person sample.

If you looked at the above list of numbers, depending on which day you looked, you would get a totally different picture.

It's a one day snap shot with a big margin of error.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #4 on: April 14, 2004, 03:16:59 PM »

Kerry will win Florida.  Bush is losing support among Cuban voters.  He still has a majority, but 55% as some polls are suggesting is a far cry from the 80% he got in 2000.  That, and I think the dems are going to get even more people out to vote this time.  They really got people to come out last time, but this time it will be even better.  And Buchanan's not on the ballot....there's 3,000 right there ; )
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #5 on: April 14, 2004, 03:18:00 PM »

Kerry will win Florida.  Bush is losing support among Cuban voters.  He still has a majority, but 55% as some polls are suggesting is a far cry from the 80% he got in 2000.  That, and I think the dems are going to get even more people out to vote this time.  They really got people to come out last time, but this time it will be even better.  And Buchanan's not on the ballot....there's 3,000 right there ; )

Look at 2002.  Jeb won big..and Bush will crack 70% of the Cuabn vote no matter what.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #6 on: April 14, 2004, 03:23:41 PM »

He may, but polls are showing the Cuban-Americans are frustrated and turnout will be significantly less.  That can play a huge role.  
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #7 on: April 14, 2004, 03:26:39 PM »

He may, but polls are showing the Cuban-Americans are frustrated and turnout will be significantly less.  That can play a huge role.  

The increase in the Jewish vote for Bush will cancel otu the cubans.
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elcorazon
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« Reply #8 on: April 14, 2004, 03:29:05 PM »

The Jews will continue to support the democrats, even in Florida.  They're too smart to support Dubya and his ilk.
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ShapeShifter
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« Reply #9 on: April 14, 2004, 03:29:46 PM »

He may, but polls are showing the Cuban-Americans are frustrated and turnout will be significantly less.  That can play a huge role.  

The increase in the Jewish vote for Bush will cancel otu the cubans.

You are going to argue this to the teeth I see Smiley

But I honestly, from a pure hunch feeling, think Kerry is going to carry Florida ONLY if the race stays close like it is now.

I see a lot of angry voters come election night from Florida and all they see is Kerry's name. I mean, look at Cali.
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angus
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« Reply #10 on: April 14, 2004, 04:11:59 PM »

The Jews will continue to support the democrats, even in Florida.  They're too smart to support Dubya and his ilk.

I love it!  Nothing is so liberating as the death of political correctness.
Did you see "Family Guy" last night?

Peter:  "I need an accountant.  What's your name?"

man:  "Bernstein"

Peter:  "Oh great, I bet you're smart, good with money."

man:  "what?!  Now hold on-"

Peter:  "oh, come off it, everyone knows you guys are tight with a penny."

man:  "hey wait just a-"

Peter:  "are you an accountant or not?!"

man:  (long pause)  "yes."
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Gustaf
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« Reply #11 on: April 14, 2004, 04:19:59 PM »

The Jews will continue to support the democrats, even in Florida.  They're too smart to support Dubya and his ilk.

I love it!  Nothing is so liberating as the death of political correctness.
Did you see "Family Guy" last night?

Peter:  "I need an accountant.  What's your name?"

man:  "Bernstein"

Peter:  "Oh great, I bet you're smart, good with money."

man:  "what?!  Now hold on-"

Peter:  "oh, come off it, everyone knows you guys are tight with a penny."

man:  "hey wait just a-"

Peter:  "are you an accountant or not?!"

man:  (long pause)  "yes."

Lol... Smiley
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dunn
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« Reply #12 on: April 14, 2004, 04:34:03 PM »

The Jews will continue to support the democrats, even in Florida.  They're too smart to support Dubya and his ilk.

I love it!  Nothing is so liberating as the death of political correctness.
Did you see "Family Guy" last night?

Peter:  "I need an accountant.  What's your name?"

man:  "Bernstein"

Peter:  "Oh great, I bet you're smart, good with money."

man:  "what?!  Now hold on-"

Peter:  "oh, come off it, everyone knows you guys are tight with a penny."

man:  "hey wait just a-"

Peter:  "are you an accountant or not?!"

man:  (long pause)  "yes."

Lol... Smiley
Gus?
Sad
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Gustaf
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E: 0.39, S: -0.70

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« Reply #13 on: April 14, 2004, 04:35:48 PM »

The Jews will continue to support the democrats, even in Florida.  They're too smart to support Dubya and his ilk.

I love it!  Nothing is so liberating as the death of political correctness.
Did you see "Family Guy" last night?

Peter:  "I need an accountant.  What's your name?"

man:  "Bernstein"

Peter:  "Oh great, I bet you're smart, good with money."

man:  "what?!  Now hold on-"

Peter:  "oh, come off it, everyone knows you guys are tight with a penny."

man:  "hey wait just a-"

Peter:  "are you an accountant or not?!"

man:  (long pause)  "yes."

Lol... Smiley
Gus?
Sad

What? I found that a funny joke, and not anti-semitic. Did you find it offensive? Sad
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dunn
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« Reply #14 on: April 14, 2004, 04:41:06 PM »

The Jews will continue to support the democrats, even in Florida.  They're too smart to support Dubya and his ilk.

I love it!  Nothing is so liberating as the death of political correctness.
Did you see "Family Guy" last night?

Peter:  "I need an accountant.  What's your name?"

man:  "Bernstein"

Peter:  "Oh great, I bet you're smart, good with money."

man:  "what?!  Now hold on-"

Peter:  "oh, come off it, everyone knows you guys are tight with a penny."

man:  "hey wait just a-"

Peter:  "are you an accountant or not?!"

man:  (long pause)  "yes."

Lol... Smiley
Gus?
Sad

What? I found that a funny joke, and not anti-semitic. Did you find it offensive? Sad
Do you know Shiloke (spelling?) character by Shakespeare's
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Gustaf
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E: 0.39, S: -0.70

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« Reply #15 on: April 14, 2004, 04:53:09 PM »

The Jews will continue to support the democrats, even in Florida.  They're too smart to support Dubya and his ilk.

I love it!  Nothing is so liberating as the death of political correctness.
Did you see "Family Guy" last night?

Peter:  "I need an accountant.  What's your name?"

man:  "Bernstein"

Peter:  "Oh great, I bet you're smart, good with money."

man:  "what?!  Now hold on-"

Peter:  "oh, come off it, everyone knows you guys are tight with a penny."

man:  "hey wait just a-"

Peter:  "are you an accountant or not?!"

man:  (long pause)  "yes."

Lol... Smiley
Gus?
Sad

What? I found that a funny joke, and not anti-semitic. Did you find it offensive? Sad
Do you know Shiloke (spelling?) character by Shakespeare's

Shylock? If you tickle us do we not laugh, if you poison us do we not die, etc?
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Ben.
Ben
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« Reply #16 on: April 14, 2004, 04:53:36 PM »

The Jews will continue to support the democrats, even in Florida.  They're too smart to support Dubya and his ilk.

I love it!  Nothing is so liberating as the death of political correctness.
Did you see "Family Guy" last night?

Peter:  "I need an accountant.  What's your name?"

man:  "Bernstein"

Peter:  "Oh great, I bet you're smart, good with money."

man:  "what?!  Now hold on-"

Peter:  "oh, come off it, everyone knows you guys are tight with a penny."

man:  "hey wait just a-"

Peter:  "are you an accountant or not?!"

man:  (long pause)  "yes."

Did you hear that they might be bringing it back?... great series, the third was the best IMHO, that episode was from the second, but Brian and Stevie have to be the best characters by a mile, followed by Peter and Lois and after that who cares?

But excellent show... ahhhhh... Fox better bring it back!

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California Dreamer
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« Reply #17 on: April 14, 2004, 05:00:21 PM »

Florida and Ohio have been the top two places where Bush has dropped over $40 million in the last month.

Kerry has spent close to nothing (since he was mostly broke after the primaries)

where would Bush be without the $40mil?
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ShapeShifter
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« Reply #18 on: April 15, 2004, 11:50:06 AM »

The Jews will continue to support the democrats, even in Florida.  They're too smart to support Dubya and his ilk.

I love it!  Nothing is so liberating as the death of political correctness.
Did you see "Family Guy" last night?

Peter:  "I need an accountant.  What's your name?"

man:  "Bernstein"

Peter:  "Oh great, I bet you're smart, good with money."

man:  "what?!  Now hold on-"

Peter:  "oh, come off it, everyone knows you guys are tight with a penny."

man:  "hey wait just a-"

Peter:  "are you an accountant or not?!"

man:  (long pause)  "yes."

I have their Second Volume - Season 3 DVD

Family Guy is crazy just like South Park and of course The Simpsons are a water down version that I like.
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angus
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« Reply #19 on: April 15, 2004, 12:00:37 PM »


I have their Second Volume - Season 3 DVD

Family Guy is crazy just like South Park and of course The Simpsons are a water down version that I like.

"I really fücking hate liberals."
   --Matt Stone (creator of SP in a rolling stone interview)

rather an unsophisticated choice of syntax, but I appreciate the sentiment.

DO NOT compare the flavors of the month to "The Simpsons"   Students in schools will study this fine exammple of American art a thousand years from now after our empire has crumbled, the way we study Shakespeare or Da Vinci or Mozart.  
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ShapeShifter
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« Reply #20 on: April 15, 2004, 12:03:55 PM »


I have their Second Volume - Season 3 DVD

Family Guy is crazy just like South Park and of course The Simpsons are a water down version that I like.

"I really fücking hate liberals."
   --Matt Stone (creator of SP in a rolling stone interview)

rather an unsophisticated choice of syntax, but I appreciate the sentiment.

DO NOT compare the flavors of the month to "The Simpsons"   Students in schools will study this fine exammple of American art a thousand years from now after our empire has crumbled, the way we study Shakespeare or Da Vinci or Mozart.  

You took my post out of context. I meant water down in the sense of using shock as a tool.

The Simpsons has been and always be my favorite cartoon.
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angus
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« Reply #21 on: April 15, 2004, 12:18:08 PM »


I have their Second Volume - Season 3 DVD

Family Guy is crazy just like South Park and of course The Simpsons are a water down version that I like.

"I really fücking hate liberals."
   --Matt Stone (creator of SP in a rolling stone interview)

rather an unsophisticated choice of syntax, but I appreciate the sentiment.

DO NOT compare the flavors of the month to "The Simpsons"   Students in schools will study this fine exammple of American art a thousand years from now after our empire has crumbled, the way we study Shakespeare or Da Vinci or Mozart.  

You took my post out of context. I meant water down in the sense of using shock as a tool.

The Simpsons has been and always be my favorite cartoon.

I predict (somewhat more confidently than I predict the reelection of the president) that it will be our culture's greatest contribution to world art.  Groening will have to die of course, and our empire will have fallen, and who knows what medium they'll have after books and computers are obsolete, but when they think of the USA, they will think of "The Simpsons."

Those other shows are great, the way NYPD blue and The Wizard of Oz and Good Will Hunting are great, but they are not great works of art like the Mona Lisa, the Cistine Chapel, the Pyramid of Khufu, the sphinx, the Great Wall of China, Mozart's KV525, Wagner's Hochzeit Marsch, Shakespeare's Hamlet, and The Simpsons.
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