The UK General Election Prediction Thread

[afleitch]

Okay. Put keystrokes to screen here.

Rules: You are allowed to update your prediction once a week until the last week. Then you can update  on the final day before polls close.

Vote Shares (GB only)

Conservatives -
Labour -
Liberal Democrats -
UKIP -
Greens -
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist -

Seats

Conservatives -
Labour -
Liberal Democrats -
UKIP -
Greens -
SNP-
Plaid-
Galloway-
Other-

Likely Government -

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour
SNP
Liberal Democrats
Conservative
Greens
UKIP
Others

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon-
Glasgow North-
Stirling-

Berwick Upon Tweed-
Stockton South -
Redcar-

Bury North-
Southport-
Heywood and Middleton-

Rotherham-
Colne Valley-
Bradford West-
Sheffield Hallam-

Boston and Skegness-
Broxtowe-
Loughborough-

Worcester-
Dudley South
Warwickshire North-

Ynys Mon-
Ceredigion-
Vale of Glamorgan-

Camborne and Redruth-
Bristol West-
Wells-

Brighton Pavillion-
Thanet South-
Rochester and Strood-

Kingston and Surbiton
Battersea-
Enfield North-

Norwich South-
Clacton-
Thurrock-

[YL]

Partial for now.

Vote Shares (GB only)

Conservatives - 36%
Labour - 34%
Liberal Democrats - 11%
UKIP - 11%
Greens - 3%
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 5%

Seats

Conservatives -
Labour -
Liberal Democrats -
UKIP -
Greens -
SNP-
Plaid-
Galloway-
Other-

Likely Government -

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour
SNP
Liberal Democrats
Conservative
Greens
UKIP
Others

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon- SNP
Glasgow North- SNP
Stirling- SNP

Berwick Upon Tweed- Conservative
Stockton South - Labour
Redcar- Labour

Bury North- Labour
Southport- Lib Dem
Heywood and Middleton- Labour

Rotherham- Labour
Colne Valley- Labour
Bradford West- Respect
Sheffield Hallam- going to stick with Lib Dem for now

Boston and Skegness- Conservative
Broxtowe- Labour
Loughborough- Labour

Worcester- Conservative
Dudley South- Labour
Warwickshire North- Labour

Ynys Môn- Labour
Ceredigion- Lib Dem
Vale of Glamorgan- Conservative

Camborne and Redruth- Conservative
Bristol West- Labour
Wells- Conservative

Brighton Pavillion- Green
Thanet South- UKIP
Rochester and Strood- Conservative

Kingston and Surbiton- Lib Dem
Battersea- Conservative
Enfield North- Labour

Norwich South- Labour
Clacton- UKIP
Thurrock- UKIP

[You kip if you want to...]

Vote Shares (GB only)

Conservatives -
Labour -
Liberal Democrats -
UKIP -
Greens -
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist -

Seats

Conservatives -
Labour -
Liberal Democrats - 28
UKIP -
Greens - 1
SNP-
Plaid- 3
Galloway- 1
Other- 18

Likely Government - Labour minority

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour
SNP
Liberal Democrats - 1 seat
Conservative - 1 seat
Greens - 0 seats
UKIP - 0 seats
Others - 0 seats

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon- SNP
Glasgow North- SNP
Stirling- SNP

Berwick Upon Tweed- Tory
Stockton South - Labour
Redcar- Labour

Bury North- Labour
Southport- LibDem
Heywood and Middleton- Labour

Rotherham- Labour
Colne Valley- Tory
Bradford West- Respect
Sheffield Hallam- LibDem (but essentially a toss-up at this point)

Boston and Skegness- Tory
Broxtowe- Labour
Loughborough- Labour

Worcester- Labour
Dudley South - Labour
Warwickshire North- Labour

Ynys Mon- Labour
Ceredigion- LibDem
Vale of Glamorgan- Tory

Camborne and Redruth- Tory
Bristol West- LibDem (thanks Greens)
Wells- Tory

Brighton Pavillion- Green (but Labour'll take the council)
Thanet South- UKIP
Rochester and Strood- UKIP

Kingston and Surbiton - LibDem
Battersea- Tory
Enfield North- Labour

Norwich South- Labour
Clacton- UKIP
Thurrock- Tory

[Clyde1998]

Vote Shares (GB only)

Conservatives - 35%
Labour - 33%
Liberal Democrats - 10%
UKIP - 10%
Greens - 5%
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 4%

Seats

Conservatives - 291
Labour - 255
Liberal Democrats - 24
UKIP - 2
Greens - 1
SNP- 55
Plaid- 3
Galloway- 1
Other- 18 (Northern Ireland)

Likely Government - Hung Parliament; Conservative minority

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour - 23% (2 seats)
SNP - 48% (55 seats)
Liberal Democrats - 8% (1 seat)
Conservative - 14% (1 seat)
Greens - 4% (0 seats)
UKIP - 2% (0 seats)
Others - 1% (0 seats)

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon- SNP
Glasgow North- Labour
Stirling- SNP

Berwick Upon Tweed- Conservative
Stockton South - Conservative
Redcar- Labour

Bury North- Labour
Southport- Lib Dem
Heywood and Middleton- Labour

Rotherham- Labour
Colne Valley- Conservative
Bradford West- Respect
Sheffield Hallam- Labour

Boston and Skegness- Conservative
Broxtowe- Labour
Loughborough- Conservative

Worcester- Conservative
Dudley South- Conservative
Warwickshire North- Labour

Ynys Mon- Labour
Ceredigion- Lib Dem
Vale of Glamorgan- Conservative

Camborne and Redruth- Conservative
Bristol West- Labour
Wells- Conservative

Brighton Pavillion- Green
Thanet South- Conservative
Rochester and Strood- Conservative

Kingston and Surbiton- Lib Dem
Battersea- Conservative
Enfield North- Labour

Norwich South- Labour
Clacton- UKIP
Thurrock- UKIP

[freefair]

Vote Shares (GB only)

Conservatives - 37.9%
Labour - 31.4%
Liberal Democrats - 8.2%
UKIP - 10.7%
Greens - 5.1%
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 3.5%

Seats

Conservatives - 323
Labour - 234
Liberal Democrats - 25
UKIP - 7
Greens - 3
SNP- 35
Plaid- 4
Galloway- 1
Other- 18

Likely Government -
Conservative Minority

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour- 23.9% 14
SNP- 35.1%, 35
Liberal Democrats- 7.6%, 4
Conservative- 23.9%, 6
Greens- 3.7%, 0
UKIP- 4.98%, 0
Others- 1.1%, 0

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon- SNP (Salmond)
Glasgow North- SNP
Stirling- Conservative

Berwick Upon Tweed- Conservative
Stockton South - Conservative
Redcar- Labour

Bury North- Conservative
Southport- Conservative
Heywood and Middleton-UKIP

Rotherham-UKIP
Colne Valley-Conservative
Bradford West-RESPECT (Galloway)
Sheffield Hallam-LibDem (Clegg)

Boston and Skegness- UKIP
Broxtowe- Conservative
Loughborough- Conservative

Worcester- Consevative
Dudley South- Conservative
Warwickshire North- Labour/Conservative TOSSUP

Ynys Mon- Plaid
Ceredigion- LibDem
Vale of Glamorgan- Conservative

Camborne and Redruth- Conservative
Bristol West- Conservative
Wells-Conservative

Brighton Pavillion-Green
Thanet South- UKIP
Rochester and Strood- Conservative

Kingston and Surbiton- Conservative
Battersea- Conservative
Enfield North- Conservative

Norwich South- Green
Clacton- UKIP
Thurrock- Conservative
[/quote]

[The Other Castro]

Partial Prediction:

Vote Shares

Conservatives - 33.2%
Labour - 33.4%
Liberal Democrats - 7.8%
UKIP - 13.9%
Greens - 6.4%
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 3.6%

Seats

Conservatives - 280
Labour - 274
Liberal Democrats - 24
UKIP - 5
Greens - 1
SNP - 44
Plaid - 3
Galloway- 1
Other - 18

Likely Government - Chaos (or Labour/SNP Minority Coalition)

[Phony Moderate]

It's highly unlikely that Labour would be behind in seats if they were ahead in votes.

[morgieb]

It's highly unlikely that Labour would be behind in seats if they were ahead in votes.

Yeah, isn't it common wisdom that Conservative seats get more votes than Labour ones?

[andrew_c]

For Labour to be ahead on vote share but behind in seat count, it would need a lot of wasted vote from narrow losses in Scotland.

[You kip if you want to...]

It's highly unlikely that Labour would be behind in seats if they were ahead in votes.

Yeah, isn't it common wisdom that Conservative seats get more votes than Labour ones?

The SNP in Scotland basically cancels that out now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour won a majority of seats in England alone in 2005 despite polling fewer votes than the Conservatives. Broadly speaking the electoral system tends to favour Labour when Labour does well and to have a more neutral effect otherwise.

And I don't mean to be a dick, but I'd urge some of you to consider whether your individual seat predictions line up at all with what you're forecasting nationally.

[Silent Hunter]

Can I suggest that we throw in the Houghton and Sunderland South declaration time, just for the LOLs?

[afleitch]

Labour won a majority of seats in England alone in 2005 despite polling fewer votes than the Conservatives. Broadly speaking the electoral system tends to favour Labour when Labour does well and to have a more neutral effect otherwise.

Well that was more to do with Blair's 'Heineken' effect and was probably more of an exception to the rule, but broadly speaking I'd agree. It's worth noting that in 2010 when compared to 1992, as a % of seats won in England, both the Tories and Labour were generally at the same level (both lower, but similarly apart) and in 2010, the Tories did better in Wales than they did in 1992. Scotland is the exception of course and combined with the Lib Dems ensured that the election didn't completely mirror 1992.

Given that I think it's the most comparable election, particularly demographically then I would argue that because Blair wasn't there (rather than anything Cameron did), the association built up from 1994-2007 was 'broken'; most areas of the country reverted back to where it was before Blair. (1992 was itself a partial unwinding from Thatcher)

I think that's our starting point.

So if polls swing to produce a 2005 vote share scenario, I don't think that we will necessarily see a 2005 style spread of seats throughout the country.

[Lurker]

Even in 2010, with the Tories beating Labour by 11,5% in England, they could still only gain approximately the same number of seats there as Labour did in 2005 (despite doing worse than the Tories that year).

[ChrisDR68]

I made this prediction on 16th January so I may as well stick to it

Vote Shares

Conservatives - 35.1%
Labour - 30.9%
Liberal Democrats - 13.5%
UKIP - 11.3%
Greens - 2.6%
Scottish Nationalist - 2.2%

Seats

Conservatives - 293
Labour - 278
Liberal Democrats - 31
UKIP - 2
Greens - 1
SNP - 23
Plaid- 3
Galloway- 1
Other- 18

Likely Government -
Con/Lib/DUP coalition

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour 31.3%
SNP 37.6%
Liberal Democrats 7.2%
Conservative 15.3%
Greens 2.1%
UKIP 5.6%
Others 0.9%

I've no idea about individual constituency predictions. Having watched every general election since 1979 there is always a lot of unpredictability in a high number of seats... to say the least

[Mr. Morden]

Partial Prediction:

Vote Shares

Conservatives - 33.2%
Labour - 33.4%
Liberal Democrats - 7.8%
UKIP - 13.9%
Greens - 6.4%
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 3.6%

Seats

Conservatives - 280
Labour - 274
Liberal Democrats - 24
UKIP - 5
Greens - 1
SNP - 44
Plaid - 3
Galloway- 1
Other - 18

Likely Government - Chaos (or Labour/SNP Minority Coalition)

What if it was something more like:

Cons 285
Labour 280
SNP 50

Or something like that, so that Labour+SNP adds up to a majority of seats (even though Labour by itself trails the Conservatives in seats and maybe even in raw votes)?  Is it pretty much a given that Labour and SNP will form a coalition government in the event that they have a majority, rather than let the Conservatives form a minority government?

[The Other Castro]

It's hard to see a full Labour coalition with just SNP, they'd probably have to bring in Lib Dems if they don't want to rule as a minority.

[You kip if you want to...]

I can't see Labour going for full coalition with the SNP. Too messy.

[Clyde1998]

I can't see Labour going for full coalition with the SNP. Too messy.

I can't see Labour wanting to go into coalition with the SNP, and I don't see the SNP being stupid enough to enter a formal coalition - especially after what's happened to the Lib Dems.

[Silent Hunter]

Still working on my full prediction.

[Silent Hunter]

I can't see Labour going for full coalition with the SNP. Too messy.

Confidence and supply would be best for both - they agree on a lot, but also disagree on a lot. Trident is the nuclear-tipped elephant in the room, of course.

[Gary J]

A Labour minority government seems to be the most likely outcome of the general election. I think there is quite a good chance, under current law, that such a minority government could continue in office until the next fixed term election due in 2020; without necessarily needing a formal confidence and supply agreement from the SNP.

The traditional Westminster model treated the ability of a ministry to obtain supply from the House of Commons as being essential to demonstrate that it retained the confidence of the House.  Thus if a government was defeated on any vote it declared a matter of confidence (which by convention would include any major financial vote) it was required to either resign or advise the monarch to dissolve Parliament and order a general election.

A past Labour government got away with relaxing the traditional conventions. On 10 March 1976, the government were defeated 284-256 on a motion approving public expenditure. A subsequent vote of confidence was won 297-280 and the ministry continued in office. Other votes were lost on quite major legislation, but the government did not treat them as matters of confidence. The ministry eventually fell on a formal Conservative motion of no confidence which passed 311-310 on 28 March 1979.

Historically, from the adoption of Home Rule for Ireland as Liberal policy in 1886 until the First World War, whenever there was no Liberal majority and the Unionists (Conservatives and Liberal Unionists) were in a minority in the House of Commons the result was a Liberal minority government. This was not due to formal agreements between the Liberals and the Irish Nationalists, but to a general understanding that only a Liberal government would pursue home rule. In 1892-95 and 1910-15 Liberal governments were in a minority, but they did not fall because they lost nationalist support.

The old conventions about when a government has lost the confidence of the House now seem to have been replaced by the statutory provisions about no confidence votes in the fixed term Parliament legislation. If that is right a government could now be defeated on its budget but still win a statutory vote of confidence, thus being able to remain in office if not precisely in power (unless the Prime Minister decided to resign because his position was too humiliating to go on).

Perhaps a Parliament where the government is unable to pass just about any law it wants, but has to seek support from outside its own parliamentary party, will serve the country better than the usual Parliamentary dictatorship of a majority government.


 

[You kip if you want to...]

Perhaps a Parliament where the government is unable to pass just about any law it wants, but has to seek support from outside its own parliamentary party, will serve the country better than the usual Parliamentary dictatorship of a majority government.

Could be, but I think the setup the Tories have had with the LibDems has been quite obscene to many people on all sides when it has come to matters to do with mandate and manifestos.

[Mr. Morden]

I can't see Labour going for full coalition with the SNP. Too messy.

I can't see Labour wanting to go into coalition with the SNP, and I don't see the SNP being stupid enough to enter a formal coalition - especially after what's happened to the Lib Dems.

OK, but my earlier question still remains, but in a somewhat different form: If the Conservatives end up at least a few seats ahead of Labour, yet Labour+SNP would form a majority, then does the SNP prop up a Labour minority government (if not with a formal "coalition"), even though Labour doesn't have the most seats?  Or would we more likely see a Conservative minority government in that case?  Is there any precedent for a minority government being run by a party that doesn't have a plurality of seats?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sure. We even have a very extreme example in the case of the first Labour government (1924). The results of the 1923 General Election (held in December) were Con 258, Labour 191, Liberals 158, Others 8, but Labour ended up forming a minority government with Liberal support.