The UK General Election Prediction Thread
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #25 on: March 11, 2015, 08:38:23 PM »

I can't see Labour going for full coalition with the SNP. Too messy.
I can't see Labour wanting to go into coalition with the SNP, and I don't see the SNP being stupid enough to enter a formal coalition - especially after what's happened to the Lib Dems.

OK, but my earlier question still remains, but in a somewhat different form: If the Conservatives end up at least a few seats ahead of Labour, yet Labour+SNP would form a majority, then does the SNP prop up a Labour minority government (if not with a formal "coalition"), even though Labour doesn't have the most seats?  Or would we more likely see a Conservative minority government in that case?  Is there any precedent for a minority government being run by a party that doesn't have a plurality of seats?


If the Tories are still the largest party on the Friday morning, Cameron has 2 weeks under the Fixed Terms Act to form a government. If he can't, Miliband gets asked, and so on until parliament's dissolved again.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1923 - Labour forms its first (minority) government, despite finishing far back in second place 258-191, with C&S from the Libs on 158. The Tories lost their maj and the Liberals couldn't back them for the obvious reasons of them being the two historic parties and because the issue of the day was protectionism and tariffs and it was something the two'd never even come close to agreeing on. Labour lasted all of 10 months and the Tories then won a landslide.

I don't think precedent will matter all that much though, especially not when the only examples of such a mixed-up party system was 80-90 years ago.

Another one to look at here would be 1910-1920. The Libs squeaked past the Tories in seat count and got in 1910 on the back of the Irish. I'm sure you know the rest...

I often get annoyed by the Scotland/Quebec comparison, but Harper lasted 5 years without the Bloc in a Westminster System with (on paper) 'fixed term elections'.

And again, the SNP obviously won't say they'd do a deal with the Tories before the election, but then again, so did Nick Clegg last time. If I know anything about the SNP, it's that if they think a Tory gov will get them closer to independence than a Labour gov (and I think it will), then they'll "abstain" (prop the Tories up without actually having to prop them up).
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« Reply #26 on: March 12, 2015, 12:04:13 PM »

Interesting article on the Daily Politics today basing a prediction on how much money is being bet on the results in individual Parliamentary seats.

It's currently coming up with these figures:

Conservatives 276
Labour 275
Scottish National Party 41
Liberal Democrats 31
UK Independence Party 3
Greens 1
Others 23


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31853672 
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« Reply #27 on: March 12, 2015, 12:22:30 PM »

I can't see Labour going for full coalition with the SNP. Too messy.
I can't see Labour wanting to go into coalition with the SNP, and I don't see the SNP being stupid enough to enter a formal coalition - especially after what's happened to the Lib Dems.

OK, but my earlier question still remains, but in a somewhat different form: If the Conservatives end up at least a few seats ahead of Labour, yet Labour+SNP would form a majority, then does the SNP prop up a Labour minority government (if not with a formal "coalition"), even though Labour doesn't have the most seats?  Or would we more likely see a Conservative minority government in that case?  Is there any precedent for a minority government being run by a party that doesn't have a plurality of seats?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1892

The Liberal formed a minority government despite finishing second in 1892. This is because the Prime Minster isn't elected by the people, but by the elected representatives - so the Libs had the support from the Irish Nats in the Prime Minister vote.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1931

The best example of this is 1931 - Ramsay MacDonald was Prime Minister despite his party only winning 13 seats.
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« Reply #28 on: March 12, 2015, 06:56:24 PM »

Now, if Labour "needed" the SNP for the numbers, if they were clever, they could surely call their bluff and dare the SNP to vote them out, basically throwing the Tories a chance to form a new government.
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« Reply #29 on: March 12, 2015, 07:04:08 PM »

Now, if Labour "needed" the SNP for the numbers, if they were clever, they could surely call their bluff and dare the SNP to vote them out, basically throwing the Tories a chance to form a new government.
That could be a brilliant move.  You could legitimately blame the SNP for a Tory entering 10 Downing Street.
But not everyone could be convinced.  Whether it is wise playing their bluff depends on what the cause of disagreement is.
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« Reply #30 on: March 14, 2015, 01:50:13 PM »

Now, if Labour "needed" the SNP for the numbers, if they were clever, they could surely call their bluff and dare the SNP to vote them out, basically throwing the Tories a chance to form a new government.
That could be a brilliant move.  You could legitimately blame the SNP for a Tory entering 10 Downing Street.
But not everyone could be convinced.  Whether it is wise playing their bluff depends on what the cause of disagreement is.

Guys you're basically describing how Margaret Thatcher first became Prime Minister
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« Reply #31 on: March 15, 2015, 10:39:16 AM »

Now, if Labour "needed" the SNP for the numbers, if they were clever, they could surely call their bluff and dare the SNP to vote them out, basically throwing the Tories a chance to form a new government.
That could be a brilliant move.  You could legitimately blame the SNP for a Tory entering 10 Downing Street.
But not everyone could be convinced.  Whether it is wise playing their bluff depends on what the cause of disagreement is.

Guys you're basically describing how Margaret Thatcher first became Prime Minister

Exactly. And we all know how that went down with people north of the border.
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« Reply #32 on: March 15, 2015, 12:11:33 PM »

Now, if Labour "needed" the SNP for the numbers, if they were clever, they could surely call their bluff and dare the SNP to vote them out, basically throwing the Tories a chance to form a new government.
That could be a brilliant move.  You could legitimately blame the SNP for a Tory entering 10 Downing Street.
But not everyone could be convinced.  Whether it is wise playing their bluff depends on what the cause of disagreement is.

Guys you're basically describing how Margaret Thatcher first became Prime Minister

Exactly. And we all know how that went down with people north of the border.

Sigh.

I don't know why people seem to think that Callaghan could have went on and on if it wasn't for the no confidence vote, there had to be a GE within a few months anyway.

With respect to the SNP, they had a bad year in 1979 because they lost their seats back to the Tories. The only two they retained were seats where their opponents were Labour. In terms of their opinion poll rating, it had tumbled since the winter of 1978, but wasn't affected by the no confidence vote. The SNP supported no confidence on the basis that the Scotland Act was not implemented because of the wrecking amendment in the bill. Had they not backed the vote of no confidence, the end result of the 1979 election in Scotland would have been the same.
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« Reply #33 on: March 15, 2015, 09:42:03 PM »
« Edited: March 15, 2015, 09:44:52 PM by BlondeArtisit »

Labour target seats.

East Midlands - 8 marginal seats.
Sherwood, Broxtowe, Amber Valley, Lincoln, Erewash, Northampton North, Loughborough, High Peak

Soft Labour targets - Northampton South, Leicestershire NW, Kettering.

Most of these will be in before 3-4am on election night even with re-counts. They are very fast counters. It would be a disaster for labour if they don't win at least 6 - Sherwood, Broxtowe, Amber Valley, Lincoln, Erewash and Northampton North look Labour gains. They all have well-funded candidates, have resources across the wards and it's difficult to see how the tories can hold on with so much vote to squeeze from the lib dem/bnp in many of these races.

Loughborough is an interesting one. Nicky Morgan, the educational secretary is heavily financed by the hedge fund donars. But it's not going to be comfortable for her as many of the leicester crowd could be pushed into the villages 10miles up the road to put boots on the ground. This could be in the 100s. It will be a televised count so is vital for morale that labour take her out. Visual humiliation is very powerful and difficult for a government to remain in control of the narrative.

High Peak is another unknown. Recent polls have it a deadheat. I suspect the lib dem vote is being seriously squeezed and the campaign to oust clegg nearby could be having an effect. This one is another tough one to call and one you wouldn't want to bet on.

Kettering, Leics NW and Northampton South should all be Tory holds but the volatility in swings in these races in both the council and european elections make these races where from nowhere it could be entering 2-3k majorities which makes it very vulnerable if the tories hold on for the second election in 2015 or in 2020 if they can survive that long in minority.



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« Reply #34 on: March 15, 2015, 09:54:52 PM »

Labour Targets - Northwest (Tory bloodbath)

Labour Targets 8 - Lancaster/Fleetwood, Carlisle, Weaver Vale, Bury North, Warrington South, Morecambe/Lunesdale, Burnley (lib dem), Manchester Withinton (lib dem)

Barring some freak event, I can't see anything stopping these seats falling into Labours hands. Tories won these races narrowly in 2010 with a depressed labour vote. Tories won England by 10pts, since then labour have gone up, tories down, lib dems collapsed. All the above are certain labour gains.

Labour marginal targets - Chester, Blackpool N & Cleverleys, Wirral West, South Ribble, Pendle, Crewe/Nantwich, Rossendale/Darwen

Could be very possible that Tories lose every gain from 2010.

Labour could gain 15 seats from the tories (13) and the lib dems (2)

If pushed I would say labour gain at least 10 from the tories 2 lib dems
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« Reply #35 on: March 16, 2015, 06:39:27 AM »

If I were asked to pick one North West seat which could have a really surprising result, it would be Southport.  The Lib Dems still have the majority of local councillors, but they're winning on freak vote splits with shares in the low 30s.  The Southport Tories are too busy knocking seven bells out of each other to start fighting anybody else.  UKIP are doing well among the town's large retiree population.  Labour are nowhere.  A Lib Dem hold is still probably heavy favourite, but it's possible that the Kippers come up through the middle if they have a really good election.
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« Reply #36 on: March 16, 2015, 12:04:25 PM »

Now, if Labour "needed" the SNP for the numbers, if they were clever, they could surely call their bluff and dare the SNP to vote them out, basically throwing the Tories a chance to form a new government.
That could be a brilliant move.  You could legitimately blame the SNP for a Tory entering 10 Downing Street.
But not everyone could be convinced.  Whether it is wise playing their bluff depends on what the cause of disagreement is.

Guys you're basically describing how Margaret Thatcher first became Prime Minister
I don't know if anyone's read James Callaghan's political memoir, but it contains a few pages about how the Government was brought down.

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So - Callaghan suggests that:
1. The Labour government, a minority government, was unpopular as a result of the winter of discontent.
2. Scotland voted for devolution, but a rule imposed by a Labour MP in alliance with the Tories and 33 Labour colleagues ensured that any Yes result wouldn't result in devolution.
3. He and Foot wanted to keep the devolution act alive - to attempt revive it after the election, given the Yes vote - but some Labour MPs vowed to block the plan, leading to the vote of no confidence.
4. He had resigned himself to an early election, even if he had won the vote of no confidence.
5. He blamed the election defeat on the Winter Of Discontent. He attributes the Conservatives’ success to that and to their promises of tax cuts.

* About the 40% Rule
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #37 on: March 16, 2015, 12:11:53 PM »

I'm a firm admirer of Callaghan but government by trade union consent (which in effect his government from 1976-79 was) was always a very dodgy proposition.
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« Reply #38 on: March 16, 2015, 12:22:30 PM »

it's possible that the Kippers come up through the middle if they have a really good election.

In Southport? No.
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« Reply #39 on: March 16, 2015, 04:27:52 PM »

Vote Shares (GB only)

Conservatives - 31
Labour - 29
Liberal Democrats - 8
UKIP - 15
Greens - 8
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 4

Seats

Conservatives - 286
Labour - 250
Liberal Democrats - 29
UKIP - 8
Greens - 1
SNP- 54
Plaid- 3
Galloway- 1

Likely Government -
Lab/SNP/PC Minority or Con/LD Minority

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour - 25
SNP - 46
Liberal Democrats - 4
Conservative - 14
Greens - 3
UKIP - 2

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon- SNP
Glasgow North- SNP
Stirling- SNP

Berwick Upon Tweed- Conservatives
Stockton South - Conservatives
Redcar- Labour

Bury North- Labour
Southport- LD
Heywood and Middleton- UKIP

Rotherham- UKIP
Colne Valley- Conservative
Bradford West- Respect
Sheffield Hallam- Barely LD

Boston and Skegness- Conservative
Broxtowe- Labour
Loughborough- Conservative

Worcester- Conservative
Dudley South - Conservative South
Warwickshire North- Labour

Ynys Mon- Labour
Ceredigion- LD
Vale of Glamorgan- Conservative

Camborne and Redruth- Conservative
Bristol West- LD
Wells- Conservative

Brighton Pavillion- Green
Thanet South- Conservative
Rochester and Strood- UKIP

Kingston and Surbiton - LD
Battersea- Conservative
Enfield North- Labour

Norwich South- Labour
Clacton- UKIP
Thurrock- UKIP
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« Reply #40 on: March 21, 2015, 10:34:36 AM »

Vote Shares (GB only)

Conservatives - 35.4%
Labour - 34.1%
Liberal Democrats - 9.7%
UKIP - 10.8%
Greens - 4.4%
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 3.7%

Seats

Conservatives - 272
Labour - 288
Liberal Democrats - 27
UKIP - 7
Greens - 1
SNP- 51
Plaid- 3
Galloway- 1
Other- 0

Likely Government - Labour minority with SNP confidence and supply

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour - 27%/6 seats
SNP - 46%/ 51 seats
Liberal Democrats - 5%/1 seat
Conservative - 16%/ 1 seat
Greens - 2%
UKIP - 3%
Others - 1%

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon- SNP gain
Glasgow North- SNP gain
Stirling- SNP gain

Berwick Upon Tweed- Lib Dem hold on the basis that there was a big swing last time
Stockton South - Labour gain
Redcar- Labour gain

Bury North- Surprise Tory hold
Southport- Lib Dem hold
Heywood and Middleton- Labour hold

Rotherham- Labour hold
Colne Valley- Tory hold
Bradford West- Galloway hold
Sheffield Hallam- Narrow Lib Dem hold (as in under 1,500)

Boston and Skegness- UKIP gain
Broxtowe- Labour gain
Loughborough- Labour gain

Worcester- Tory hold
Dudley South- Labour gain
Warwickshire North- Labour gain

Ynys Mon- Labour hold
Ceredigion- Lib Dem hold
Vale of Glamorgan- Tory hold

Camborne and Redruth- Tory hold
Bristol West- Labour gain (narrowly)
Wells- Lib Dem hold

Brighton Pavillion- Green hold, majority almost identical to last time
Thanet South- UKIP gain
Rochester and Strood- UKIP win

Kingston and Surbiton- Lib Dem hold
Battersea- Tory hold
Enfield North- Labour gain

Norwich South- Labour gain
Clacton- UKIP win
Thurrock- UKIP gain
[/quote]
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« Reply #41 on: March 30, 2015, 01:12:42 PM »
« Edited: March 30, 2015, 02:36:41 PM by You kip if you want to... »

Vote Shares (GB only)

Conservatives - 33
Labour - 34.5
Liberal Democrats - 8.5
UKIP - 14
Greens - 3.5
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 4


Seats

Conservatives - 260 (-46)
Labour - 280 (+22)
Liberal Democrats - 26 (-31)
UKIP - 7 (+7)

Greens - 1
SNP- 53 (+47)
Plaid- 3
Galloway- 1 (+1)
Other- 19 (NI + Bercow)

Likely Government - Labour minority with SNP/Green/Plaid/NI tactical support

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour - 5 seats (Murphy reelected)
SNP - 53 seats
Liberal Democrats - 1 seat
Conservative - 0 seats

Greens - 0 seats
UKIP - 0 seats
Others - 0 seats

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon- SNP
Glasgow North- SNP
Stirling- SNP

Berwick Upon Tweed- Tory
Stockton South - Labour
Redcar- Labour

Bury North- Labour
Southport- LibDem
Heywood and Middleton- Labour

Rotherham- UKIP
Colne Valley- Labour
Bradford West- Respect
Sheffield Hallam- LibDem (but essentially a toss-up at this point)

Boston and Skegness- UKIP
Broxtowe- Labour
Loughborough- Labour

Worcester- Labour
Dudley South - Labour
Warwickshire North- Labour

Ynys Mon- Labour
Ceredigion- LibDem
Vale of Glamorgan- Tory

Camborne and Redruth- Tory
Bristol West- LibDem (thanks Greens)
Wells- Tory

Brighton Pavillion- Green (but Labour'll take the council)
Thanet South- UKIP
Rochester and Strood- UKIP

Kingston and Surbiton - LibDem
Battersea- Tory
Enfield North- Labour

Norwich South- Labour
Clacton- UKIP
Thurrock- UKIP

Changes in bold.

(Also, as a side note. I just had a dig through my prediction posts from 2010. I didn't do badly at all. I've added how far away I was.)
National seat totals:
Conservative - 305 (+95) (inc. Speaker Bercow) (under by 2)
Labour - 258 (-91) (dead on)
Liberal Democrats - 54 (-8) (under by 3)
Scottish National Party - 8 (+2) (over by 2)
Plaid Cymru - 5 (+3) (over by 2)
The Greens - 1 (+1)
People's Voice - 1 (±0) (lol, well...)
Independent Kidderminster Hospital and Health Concern - 0 (-1)
RESPECT - The Unity Coalition - 0 (-1)

Hung Parliament - Conservatives short by 21
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« Reply #42 on: April 02, 2015, 01:46:12 PM »

Vote Shares (GB only)

Conservatives - 36
Labour - 34
Liberal Democrats - 8
UKIP - 13
Greens - 4
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 4

Seats

Conservatives - 288 (including Bercow)
Labour - 261
Liberal Democrats - 21
UKIP - 3
Greens - 1
SNP- 54
Plaid- 3
Galloway- 1
Other- 18 (NI)

Likely Government - Conservative/LD Minority Coalition with tactical support from NI and UKIP.

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour - 4 (26%)
SNP - 54 (47%)
Liberal Democrats - 0 (4%)
Conservative - 1 (16%)
Greens - 0 (2%)
UKIP - 0 (4%)
Others

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon- SNP
Glasgow North- SNP
Stirling- SNP

Berwick Upon Tweed- CON
Stockton South -CON
Redcar- LAB

Bury North-LAB
Southport- LD
Heywood and Middleton- LAB

Rotherham- LAB
Colne Valley-CON
Bradford West- GALLOWAY
Sheffield Hallam- LAB

Boston and Skegness- CON
Broxtowe-LAB
Loughborough-CON

Worcester-CON
Dudley South- CON
Warwickshire North-LAB

Ynys Mon-LAB
Ceredigion-LD
Vale of Glamorgan- CON

Camborne and Redruth-CON
Bristol West-LAB
Wells-CON

Brighton Pavillion- GRN
Thanet South-CON
Rochester and Strood-UKIP

Kingston and Surbiton-LD
Battersea-CON
Enfield North-LAB

Norwich South-LAB
Clacton-UKIP
Thurrock-UKIP
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« Reply #43 on: April 15, 2015, 05:49:10 PM »

Vote Shares (GB only)

Conservatives - 33.9%
Labour - 34%
Liberal Democrats - 8%
UKIP - 12.7%
Greens - 5.5%
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 4.14%

Seats

Conservatives - 270
Labour - 274
Liberal Democrats - 26
UKIP - 3
Greens - 1
SNP- 53
Plaid- 3
Galloway- 1
Other- 18 (NI) + Bercow

Likely Government - Labour Minority with Confidence and Supply from SNP

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour - 5 (26%)
SNP - 53 (48.7%)
Liberal Democrats - 0 (4.7%)
Conservative - 1 (15%)
Greens - 0 (2%)
UKIP - 0 (2.2%)
Others - 0 (1.4%)

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon- SNP
Glasgow North- SNP
Stirling- SNP

Berwick Upon Tweed- CON
Stockton South - LAB
Redcar- LAB

Bury North- LAB
Southport- LD
Heywood and Middleton- LAB

Rotherham- LAB
Colne Valley- CON
Bradford West- GALLOWAY
Sheffield Hallam- LAB

Boston and Skegness- CON
Broxtowe- LAB
Loughborough- CON

Worcester- CON
Dudley South - CON
Warwickshire North- LAB

Ynys Mon- LAB
Ceredigion- LD
Vale of Glamorgan- CON

Camborne and Redruth- CON
Bristol West- LAB
Wells- CON

Brighton Pavillion- GRN
Thanet South- CON
Rochester and Strood- UKIP

Kingston and Surbiton- LD
Battersea- CON
Enfield North- LAB

Norwich South- LAB
Clacton- UKIP
Thurrock- UKIP
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« Reply #44 on: April 19, 2015, 09:04:06 AM »

Vote Shares (GB only)

Conservatives - 33%
Labour - 35%
Liberal Democrats - 7%
UKIP - 12%
Greens - 5%
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 4%

Seats

Conservatives - 263 incl. Bercow
Labour - 279
Liberal Democrats - 31
UKIP - 2
Greens - 1
SNP- 52
Plaid- 3
Galloway- 1
Other- 18 (NI)

Likely Government - Labour minority with SNP support

Scotland - Vote share and seats

(no idea about vote share, sorry)
Labour - 4
SNP - 52
Liberal Democrats - 1
Conservative - 2
Greens - 0
UKIP - 0
Others - 0

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon- SNP gain from LD
Glasgow North - SNP gain from Lab
Stirling - SNP gain from Lab

Berwick upon Tweed - LD hold
Stockton South - Lab gain from C
Redcar - Lab gain from LD

Bury North- Lab gain from C
Southport- LD hold
Heywood and Middleton- Lab hold

Rotherham- Lab hold
Colne Valley- Lab gain from C
Bradford West- Respect confirm by-election gain from Lab
Sheffield Hallam- LD hold, multiple recounts

Boston and Skegness- C hold
Broxtowe- Lab gain from C
Loughborough- C hold

Worcester- C hold
Dudley South - C hold
Warwickshire North- Lab gain from C

Ynys Mon- Lab hold
Ceredigion- LD hold
Vale of Glamorgan- C hold

Camborne and Redruth- C hold
Bristol West- LD hold
Wells- C gain from Lab

Brighton Pavillion- Grn hold
Thanet South- C hold
Rochester and Strood- C recover by-election loss

Kingston and Surbiton- LD hold
Battersea- C hold
Enfield North- Lab gain from C

Norwich South- Lab gain from LD
Clacton- UKIP confirm by-election gain from C
Thurrock- UKIP gain from C
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« Reply #45 on: April 25, 2015, 09:59:07 PM »

Updated Prediction:

Seats


Conservatives - 275
Labour - 272
SNP - 50
Liberal Democrats - 28
UKIP - 3

Likely Government - Labour Minority
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« Reply #46 on: April 26, 2015, 04:18:41 AM »

Anyone up for predicting every seat? Tongue
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« Reply #47 on: April 26, 2015, 08:20:03 AM »


I've got a map, but I'm still tinkering round the edges.
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« Reply #48 on: April 26, 2015, 08:58:39 AM »


I've done such a prediction for English Elections, but whether Kris puts it up in time is another matter...
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rpryor03
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« Reply #49 on: April 27, 2015, 04:36:14 PM »

Vote Shares (GB only)

Conservatives - 33.5
Labour - 33.1
Liberal Democrats - 8.1
UKIP - 13.9
Greens - 5.2
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 5.1

Seats

Conservatives - 271
Labour - 271
Liberal Democrats - 26
UKIP - 3
Greens - 1
SNP- 55
Plaid- 3
Galloway- 1
Other- 19 (NI + Bercow)

Likely Government - Labour Minority

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour - 27% (3 Seats)
SNP - 48% (55 Seats)
Liberal Democrats - 4% (0 Seats)
Conservative - 15% (1 Seats)
Greens - 2% (0 Seats)
UKIP - 3% (0 Seats)
Others - 1%

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon- SNP (17% majority)
Glasgow North- SNP (12% majority)
Stirling- SNP (20% majority)

Berwick Upon Tweed- CON (4% majority)
Stockton South - LAB (5% majority)
Redcar- LAB (21% majority)

Bury North- LAB (7% majority)
Southport- LD (12% majority)
Heywood and Middleton- LAB (1% majority)

Rotherham- LAB (10% majority)
Colne Valley- CON (2% majority)
Bradford West- Galloway (38% majority)
Sheffield Hallam- LIB (1% majority)

Boston and Skegness- CON (6% majority)
Broxtowe- LAB (4% majority)
Loughborough- CON (9% majority)

Worcester- CON (7% majority)
Dudley South - CON (6% majority)
Warwickshire North- LAB (7% majority)

Ynys Mon- LAB (10% majority)
Ceredigion- LD (5% majority)
Vale of Glamorgan- CON (6% majority)

Camborne and Redruth- CON (14% majority)
Bristol West- LAB (12% majority)
Wells- CON (8% majority)

Brighton Pavillion- GRN (10% majority)
Thanet South- CON (6% majority)
Rochester and Strood- UKIP (5% majority)

Kingston and Surbiton - LD (7% majority)
Battersea- CON (4% majority)
Enfield North- LAB (7% majority)

Norwich South- LAB (8% majority)
Clacton- UKIP (34% majority)
Thurrock- UKIP (4% majority)
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