The UK General Election Prediction Thread

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Because I'm brave and extremely foolish I going to try a seat-by-seat prediction before the election. I will start off in the place I am slightly more familiar with than rest... Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland
NORTH ANTRIM - The son is not really in any danger, of course. With Jim Allister not running this time, the party political wing of 'the only problem with the DUP isn't they aren't bigoted, creationist and flegger enough' should sink significantly to give the UUP a comfortable second (but a very distant second). Across Northern Ireland I'm kind of curious as to how well UKIP will do given that they are clearly aiming for the same demographic as described enough. Might save a few deposits in places - including here. DUP HOLD.
EAST ANTRIM - This is will be another DUP hold, alas, and another hold by miles. The various build up of various Unionist parties - including lol the NI Conservatives - means more deposits down the drain. There's a decent Alliance vote but, again alas, unlikely to be enough to trouble the UUP never mind the other lot. DUP HOLD
SOUTH ANTRIM - The UUP aren't running the world's worst politician Reg Empey this time so this is among the best chances for a UUP pickup. They also had a decent enough local election but then again... there a lot of hardliners too and this is increasingly the shrooming of North Belfast into the rest of County Antrim (well, more so than ever). So I will go with the safe option and another DUP HOLD.
LAGAN VALLEY - Based around (the apocryphal and probably too good to be true 'fact') the only recognized city in Europe not to have a hotel, this will be a comfortable Donaldson hold. DUP HOLD.
NORTH DOWN - I have family here. There's not much else to say. HERMON HOLD.
STRANGFORD - Newtonards is a terrible, terrible place. Again other than that nothing much to add. No indication of any change here. DUP HOLD.
UPPER BANN - A decent shot for the UUP here - and their local elections were good. Despite all that, this will still probably be a narrow DUP hold. But I don't know the lay of the land here at all and the UUP have a decent non-ex Vanguard candidate and the DUP incumbent is David Simpson. That, and the desire to have a slightly out of the way predictions leads me to go for UUP GAIN. Although a Nationalist gain isn't completely out of the question - if the 'community' could get behind one candidate, which they aren't.
SOUTH DOWN - There will probably be a Shinner breakthrough in the not too distance future but not right now. SDLP HOLD.
NEWRY AND ARMAGH - This is one of the seats under the Unionist 'Pact' so that both parties can benefit from sectarian headcounting. Why here is a complete mystery as this seat - as its name suggests - contains Newry and so such headcounting would not benefit Unionists. SF HOLD.
FERMANAGH AND SOUTH TYRONE - Ah, FST. As well as the question of who will win there is a question of 'by how much this time?' - 4 votes again? This is another Loyalist pact seat in which only the UUP are running this is while the SDLP and Sinn Fein, in fairness to them, are running in every seat in Northern Ireland. Of course, as always here the turnout war is key but I see no reason to think there will be much change from last time unless the SDLP can someone convince enough nationalist voters to give them a vote and let the UUP in... which may happen, but did not five years ago. However, given the gap 5 years ago 'much change' is not really needed. But, despite this, I will stick with SF HOLD (but by no more than a few hundred votes)
WEST TYRONE - No loyalist pact here means no chance of a gain and the SDLP aren't strong enough to challenge Doherty. I note in passing that this, of all places, is one of the locations where 'Cannabis is Safer than Alcohol' has a candidate and, quite frankly, if I lived here I would consider voting for them along with making plans of how I could get out of West Tyrone. Of the Independent candidate Susan-Anne White all that needs to be said is here. Of course, before laughing at Mrs. White we must thank her for her £500 donation to the good cause of HM Treasury. As this is Western Northern Ireland the NI Greens are also feeling very generous in that regard. SF HOLD.
MID-ULSTER - No loyalist pact here - as if it would make a difference to the final result. SF HOLD.
EAST LONDONDERRY - This is one of those seats which Nationalists will win eventually - but not quite yet. The demographics will take a while to work their magic - at least in the absence of a sectarian pact. Before moving on I think I should mention that I once spend some time in Coleraine and I swear to god, I counted more Christian bookshops than normal ones in the town centre... which says everything. Obviously I was very traumatized by the incident. DUP HOLD.
FOYLE - Sinn Fein are constantly breathing down Mark Durkan's neck, is this when Foyle finally falls to Sinn Fein? The SDLP still have a slight (and getting slighter) advantage in local elections and Durkan has a decent personal vote so I don't think this is the time. Might be closer than expected though. SDLP HOLD.
BELFAST NORTH - Real Hobson's Choice here between Gerry Kelly and Nigel Dodds. This will another seat which will elect a nationalist eventually but probably not yet (although it is more likely than East Londonderry). Even worse for the citizens of Belfast North is that Guntaker lives here. DUP HOLD.
BELFAST EAST - Alas, I would really like Naomi Long to hang on here. But what I would like even more is a free trip to South America all expenses included. Oh, and a few million euro in solid gold - but it doesn't mean it's going to happen. Although it effectively did in 2010 lightning doesn't strike twice, does it? Interestingly the NI Conservatives are in third place on the betting markets (although this is 50-1 mind): a sign of something other than a complete lack of alternatives to Alliance and DUP in the imagination of gamblers? DUP GAIN
BELFAST WEST - There are two things of interest here: 1) Whether the People Before Profit candidate can retain his deposit as he did in the by-election and 2) The level of the NI Conservatives vote. The NI Conservatives are an amusing concept at the best of times and one must appreciate their charity to HM Treasury (16 candidates... across NI! Obvious death wish is obvious). SF HOLD
BELFAST SOUTH - Now, I have to admit I really have no idea what will happen here. McDonnell isn't really safe at all yet definitely is favourite. The real mystery is the level of tactical voting - if not for it, Alliance could be in with a chance given their local results yet more likely that would mean gifting the seat to one of the Unionist Parties. Also this hasn't been traditionally Shinner territory but the Shinners have been making strides in areas which aren't traditionally theirs for a long while. Their third favourites despite not running last time. I'm going to pluck with stability here but wouldn't be surprised to be totally wrong. SDLP HOLD.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Wales

West Wales
YNYS MON - This is a place too different from the rest to put any sufficient faith that polls and trends could spot who will win here, especially national ones. In that case the best heuristic to use is that, despite being held by four different parties since WWII, an incumbent hasn't lost since.... forever(?). LAB HOLD
ARFON - This will be close but my suspicion given Labour's stubborn stickiness in the polls is that they will do better in places where the incumbents are the coalition parties and not the various other parties. Even outside of Scotland this would have some effect on the results if true. PC HOLD.
CEREDIGION - Me thinks Williams margin from 2010 is misleading, especially as part of this is studentland. Otherwise it is somewhat impenetrable to outsiders so national swings might not be all that relevant here (Is this the only place in GB where Lab and Con finished outside the top two in 2010?). I'll go with the anti-Lib Dem swing here. PC GAIN.
CARMARTHEN EAST AND DINEFWR - Probably safer than it looks. PC HOLD.
PRESELI PEMBROKESHIRE - Would be a good night for Labour if they won this. CON HOLD.
CARMARTHEN WEST AND SOUTH PEMBROKESHIRE - The sort of seat which could tell the difference between 'mass confusion' come the return of parliament or a comfortable Labour minority. Polling in Wales isn't totally reliable but has only suggested modest Labour gains, mostly from the collapse of the Lib Dems, and the Tories as they were - and assembly results from 2011 and locals suggest a strong Tory defense. So I'd stick with the status quo but the majority might be small. CON HOLD.
LLANELLI - Plaid like to ramp this seat a lot. Again, at Westminster it will make no difference. LAB HOLD.

Clwyd and Powys
ABERCONWY - CON HOLD
CLWYD WEST - Old people vote. CON HOLD.
VALE OF CLYWD - Tories failed to win this last time, no indication that this change now. LAB HOLD.
DELYN - See Vale of Clwyd. LAB HOLD.
ALYN AND DEESIDE - See Vale of Clwyd. LAB HOLD.
WREXHAM - What will happen to all those Lib Dem voters I wonder - UKIP did well in this region during the Euros, better than in most parts of Wales but no shot of them winning here. LAB HOLD.
CLWYD SOUTH - See Vale of Clwyd. LAB HOLD.
MONTGOMERYSHIRE - The incumbent is popular and the Lib Dems have tanked nationally - although that might not mean so much here. Incumbent to win and Lib Dems to do a good second. CON HOLD.
BRECON AND RADNORSHIRE - Back in 2011 this was the only seat the Lib Dems managed to win in the Assembly in what was an awful election for them. As I have nothing else to go except a general suspicion that this might not be the best area of UKIP and that Lib Dems will probably hold up better in Powys than elsewhere I'll go here for a rare hold. LIB DEM HOLD.

West and Mid-Glamorgan
GOWER - See Clwyd South. LAB HOLD.
SWANSEA WEST - Where will the Lib Dem vote go? Otherwise See Gower. LAB HOLD.
SWANSEA EAST - Labour will hold onto this even if they were down to less than a one hundred nationwide, just as in 1931. LAB HOLD
NEATH - Hain is retiring. This won't matter to the party result. LAB HOLD.
ABERAVON - See Swansea East. LAB HOLD.
BRIDGEND - See Gower. Again interesting question of the Lib Dem vote. LAB HOLD.
OGMORE - This is apparently by some metrics the most Working Class seat in the UK. There's a clue. LAB HOLD.
PONTYPRIDD - Another seat where the interesting thing will be the distribution of the Lib Dem Vote. LAB HOLD.
RHONDDA - See Llanelli. LAB HOLD.
CYNON VALLEY - The word 'Valley' is a hint. LAB HOLD.
MERTHYR TYDFIL AND RHYMNEY - See Pontypridd. LAB HOLD.

South Glamorgan and Gwent
VALE OF GLAMORGAN - One of those bellwether-since-1983 seats. Some of what I wrote about Carmathen West and South Pembrokeshire applies here. A 4 percent swing is needed and it will certainly be close but.... However, as this is a prediction I will plump with a Conservative hold in likelihood that I will be shown totally wrong. My reasoning is that suburbia is likely to see the weakest swings and the rest of constituency might not be enough. CON HOLD.
CARDIFF WEST - Hard to see this changing. LAB HOLD.
CENTRAL CARDIFF - All indications are that Lib Dems will melt away here. LAB GAIN.
CARDIFF NORTH - In other parts of the UK this would be a Tory Seat, but this is Wales and the margin is narrow although some of what I said about the Vale of Glamorgan applies here it is just too narrow for the Tories to hang on. LAB GAIN.
CARDIFF SOUTH AND PENARTH - Who even is the real opposition here anyway? LAB HOLD.
CAERPHILLY - See Aberavon. LAB HOLD.
ISLWYN - See Cardiff South and Penarth but even more so. LAB HOLD.
BLAENAU GWENT - Without People's Voice we are looking at 70% vote share again methinks. LAB HOLD.
TORFAEN - See Islwyn. LAB HOLD.
NEWPORT WEST - See Gower. LAB HOLD.
NEWPORT EAST - Another place where the Lib Dem vote mystery needs to be answered, otherwise see Newport West. LAB HOLD.
MONMOUTH - Most certainly part of Wales, despite what some parties might say (The English Democrats are running again I see). UKIP finished below Plaid last time, which probably indicates not great potential here. The Lib Dems were never a serious challenger here so Status quo will remain. CON HOLD.

So that's 1 PC Gain, 2 LAB Gains and 2 Lib Dem Losses and 1 Tory loss... leaving us with LAB 28 CON 7 PC 4 LIB DEM 1.

[ObserverIE]

FERMANAGH AND SOUTH TYRONE - Ah, FST. As well as the question of who will win there is a question of 'by how much this time?' - 4 votes again? This is another Loyalist pact seat in which only the UUP are running this is while the SDLP and Sinn Fein, in fairness to them, are running in every seat in Northern Ireland. Of course, as always here the turnout war is key but I see no reason to think there will be much change from last time unless the SDLP can someone convince enough nationalist voters to give them a vote and let the UUP in... which may happen, but did not five years ago. However, given the gap 5 years ago 'much change' is not really needed. But, despite this, I will stick with SF HOLD (but by no more than a few hundred votes)

The SDLP candidate is not especially impressive and Tom Elliott is Tom Elliott.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

FERMANAGH AND SOUTH TYRONE - Ah, FST. As well as the question of who will win there is a question of 'by how much this time?' - 4 votes again? This is another Loyalist pact seat in which only the UUP are running this is while the SDLP and Sinn Fein, in fairness to them, are running in every seat in Northern Ireland. Of course, as always here the turnout war is key but I see no reason to think there will be much change from last time unless the SDLP can someone convince enough nationalist voters to give them a vote and let the UUP in... which may happen, but did not five years ago. However, given the gap 5 years ago 'much change' is not really needed. But, despite this, I will stick with SF HOLD (but by no more than a few hundred votes)

The SDLP candidate is not especially impressive and Tom Elliott is Tom Elliott.

Oh dear. The last point is important.

[MaxQue]

Wales

West Wales
YNYS MON - This is a place too different from the rest to put any sufficient faith that polls and trends could spot who will win here, especially national ones. In that case the best heuristic to use is that, despite being held by four different parties since WWII, an incumbent hasn't lost since.... forever(?). LAB HOLD

1951. The Liberal incumbent, Megan Lloyd George (dauthger of David Lloyd George) was beaten by Labour candidate Cledwyn Hugues (now Baron Cledwyn, former chair of the PLP).

Megan Lloyd George apparently left Liberals after that, as she was elected as a Labour MP for Carmarthen in 1957 (she held it until her death in 1966).

[The Other Castro]

I see the Lib Dem practical range as 20-30 seats, meaning Tories need at the very least around 281 seats, and probably more (assuming maximum LD seats). Anything under 280, everything's coming up Miliband.

[Double Carpet]

If anyone would like to play the free-to-enter election game for the UK, it's available at:

electiongame.co.uk/uk15/

Entries close Wednesday 6th May.

Many thanks,

DC

[Zanas]

If anyone would like to play the free-to-enter election game for the UK, it's available at:

electiongame.co.uk/uk15/

Entries close Wednesday 6th May.

Many thanks,

DC

Isn't advertising an exterior website a constant infringement of the forum by-laws ?

[Oakvale]

I'm not insane so I'm not going to predict either percentages or seat totals, let alone seat-by-seat predictions, but my general thinking is that the Tories will do somewhat better than predicted currently and be the largest party, possibly by a comfortable margin, with a lead of a few points in the national vote and that the SNP will underperform their current astronomical numbers but still come away with about 40-45 seats in Scotland. Clegg, like Ed Balls, before him, hangs on by a wider than predicted margin, depriving viewers of a Portillo moment. His party do slightly better than current predictions imply.

I'm basing this on the assumption that undecided voters will vote conservatively, which in England means for Cameron and in Scotland means for Scottish Labour. I hope I'm wrong.

[King of Kensington]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11571744/Nick-Clegg-and-Nigel-Farage-will-lose-in-general-election-new-Lord-Ashcroft-poll-shows.html

[Ebsy]

Nick Clegg losing would be too good to be true.

[Boston Bread]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11571744/Nick-Clegg-and-Nigel-Farage-will-lose-in-general-election-new-Lord-Ashcroft-poll-shows.html

Both would be very welcome news.

[Vega]

If anyone would like to play the free-to-enter election game for the UK, it's available at:

electiongame.co.uk/uk15/

Entries close Wednesday 6th May.

Many thanks,

DC

Isn't advertising an exterior website a constant infringement of the forum by-laws ?

I don't know, but considering that's all he posts it probably is.

[The Other Castro]

Clegg's loss would be nice, but Farage is too funny for me to want him gone.

[Velasco]

Don't know but NI is indeed... ahem... particular. I'd feel a little bit sad if Clegg is unseated. Wouldn't anyone want to adopt him as a pet or something?

[MaxQue]

Don't know but NI is indeed... ahem... particular. I'd feel a little bit sad if Clegg is unseated. Wouldn't anyone want to adopt him as a pet or something?

Why? He already have a master, David Cameron.

[Velasco]

Don't know but NI is indeed... ahem... particular. I'd feel a little bit sad if Clegg is unseated. Wouldn't anyone want to adopt him as a pet or something?

Why? He already have a master, David Cameron.

Yes, but David is a bit inconsiderate to be a good master. Perhaps he could get some love from Ed.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Scotland - Part one

While I have no doubt that the SNP sweep is going to be massive, looking at poll internals it does seem a fair bit of its supposed vote is stronger amongst groups less likely to vote, while voters for the Unionist parties are in demographics more likely to vote than average. So I expect that the SNP are overpolling slightly... not that it will make a difference except in a few seats.

Highlands and the Islands
ORKNEY AND SHETLAND - Going about the way that people were mentioning the two island groups before the referendum, I was expecting a NO vote of about 80% and while Orkney did indeed Scotland's strongest NO vote, it wasn't only a bit stronger than the likes of Scottish Borders. One in three voters in that referendum ticked the YES box in Orkney and a bit more than that in Shetland. As I think the talk that the SNP are some utterly minor party here looked down as purely an 'Edinburgh and Glasgow' construct is a bit ridiculous. However, the real question is whether the SNP total can capture the massive Lib Dem margin here, and that I doubt simply because tactical voting and the relative weakness of both Labour and the Tories here. UKIP might have a decent result - better than average for Scotland anyway, and perhaps a third place? Either way, I think this will be closer than some assume. LIB DEM HOLD
CAITHNESS, SUTHERLAND AND EASTER ROSS - Unlike Orkney and Shetland, the referendum was fairly close in Highland and in this seat, again unlike Orkney and Shetland, Labour have historically had a decent presence. Although how much unionist tactical voting there will be is another question and whether it can be focused on the incumbent or not. The SNP hold this whole area at Hollyrood thanks in part to Lib Dem switchers preferring the SNP to the two traditional parties. Either way, it would probably need both Labour and the Tories to lose their deposits AND for their votes to transfer en masse to the Lib Dems for Lord Thurso to hold on here. SNP GAIN.
Ross, Skye and Lochaber - Charles Kennedy is certainly one of the better Lib Dems and he'll benefit from there being little Labour and Tory presence here. Indeed according to the last Ashcroft both of the traditional parties could lose their deposits here - which would I'm pretty sure be a first. That same Ashcroft put the SNP well ahead. Barely surprisingly, given the polls, the referendum, and Hollyrood. SNP GAIN.
INVERNESS, NAIRN, BADENOCH AND STRATHSPEY - Keeping with the theme here, to survive Danny Alexander will probably need a large number of 2010 Labour voters to tactically vote for him. Given that we are talking about a) the Lib Dems, b) Danny Alexander and c) in Scotland in the year of our Lord 2015 this is rarely unlikely. He may even finish third. SNP GAIN
NA H-EILEANAN AN IAR - This area has politics somewhat remote from the rest of Scotland and may not copy its voting patterns... and so may not be a landslide. Yet here is already represented by SNP and unless the incumbent has done something to particularly annoy the various Protestant sects that exist here, not to mention the region's Catholics, him holding on seems by far the most plausible option. SNP HOLD.
ARGYLL AND BUTE - Even assuming that there is a 'Unionist' vote (which may be spurious) it is probably too divided to stop the SNP winning here from fourth. SNP GAIN.

Eastern Scotland
MORAY - SNP since 1987 that's not going to change now despite the region's dependence on MOD jobs. SNP HOLD.
BANFF AND BUCHAN - The Labour candidate has got himself suspended over drink driving - as if it matters, Labour were heading for a very low total here anyway. SNP HOLD.
GORDON - Incumbent is retiring and have you seen who the SNP candidate is? SNP GAIN.
ABERDEEN NORTH - Given the size of the swing, SNP already well within range given previous performances at Westminster, never mind Hollyrood. SNP GAIN.
ABERDEEN SOUTH - Labour's best chance here is for Tory voters to swallow their pride and vote for them. At the level needed that probably won't be enough although this will be much closer than nearly anywhere else in this part of Scotland (For an exception, see below). SNP GAIN.
WEST ABERDEENSHIRE AND KINCARDINE - For the SNP to win this there will need to be massive tactical voting - but for whom? Surely not the Lib Dems given everything... could Labour voters go Tory here? And in large numbers? And again, this assumes a unified anti-SNP unionist vote which may or may not exist. Given this, SNP GAIN is by far the most likely scenario
ANGUS - This is already an SNP seat. SNP HOLD.
DUNDEE EAST - See Angus and this, it should not be forgotten, is 'YES' city. SNP HOLD.
DUNDEE WEST - Given the dominance of YES in Dundee during the referendum and the very strong correlation between YES voting and voting for the SNP (according to polls), there can only be one option here. SNP GAIN.
PERTH AND NORTH PERTHSHIRE - In the circumstances, can only go with the status quo. Tories might stand still though. SNP HOLD.
OCHILL AND SOUTH PERTHSHIRE - Another seat where the only chance of the SNP not winning is for Conservative voters to switch en masse to Labour.... and Labour themselves not to lose too much of their own supporters. Given the circumstances, how likely is that? SNP GAIN.
STIRLING - See Ochill and South Perthshire, although Labour's chances are a bit better here. SNP GAIN.
NORTH EAST FIFE - At the last Hollyrood election the ex-Lib Dem vote switched en masse to the SNP. Looks like a repeat for Westminster 2015. SNP GAIN.
GLENROTHES - Can the swing be big enough for the SNP to win here? Seems quite likely - amazingly enough. SNP GAIN.
KIRKCALDY AND COWDENBEATH - Predicting from last time is a bit hazardous given who the incumbent was. However, that seems to have leaked down to Hollyrood given how comfortably Labour held Cowdenbeath last time. Also perhaps a new candidate would be good for Labour? I'm going with a hold here. LAB HOLD.
DUNFERMLINE AND WEST FIFE - Clearly Labour's dominance is not so safe as it seemed even before this SNP surge given the by-election and last time. Hold not to see this going with the tide. SNP GAIN.

Edinburgh and Eastern Central Belt
FALKIRK - Disappointed Eric Joyce isn't running again tbh, would have made this seat more interesting. SNP GAIN.
LINLITHGOW AND EAST FALKIRK - This should be lost in the tide. SNP GAIN.
AIRDIE AND SHOTTS - Given the tide and Hollyrood results here - despite a 35 percentage point margin, there is one favourite. SNP GAIN.
LIVINGSTON - Nothing much to add here except the tide, etc. SNP GAIN.
EDINBURGH WEST - Neither Labour nor the SNP have won here since 1931. But then again this used to be a safe Tory seat. This might be another place where Unionist tactical voting - if it's a thing - might halt the SNP surge. But as in other places it is unlikely to see who that would benefit, can the Lib Dems really gain votes here? Seems unlikely. SNP GAIN.
EDINBURGH NORTH AND LEITH - Ashcroft's recent poll here put the SNP far ahead and who am I argue? SNP GAIN.
EDINBURGH SOUTH WEST - Now here is a seat that could be a Unionist (Labour) hold - however the SNP hold the area in Hollyrood - but not precisely securely. Tactical voting considerations could come into play and Labour are clearly the dominant Unionist party here so I'm going with a punt here and go for a hold. LAB HOLD.
EDINBURGH SOUTH - A lot of what I said above about Edinburgh South West also applies to this seat, and an Ashcroft poll put the SNP only three ahead. This might be where tactical voting and the 'enthusiasm gap' come into play and keep in Labour in against the tide. LAB HOLD.
EDINBURGH EAST - Harder to see a successful Labour resistance here. SNP already in a good position at Westminster and especially Hollyrood. SNP GAIN.
EAST LOTHIAN - Labour still hold the Hollyrood seat (that contains most of this constituency) but the current tide seems to be much bigger than Hollyrood. Another place which will depend on Turnout/tactical voting but unlike in Edinburgh, say, the polled SNP voters are less likely to be students and those less likely to vote. This is also more traditional ground for Labour than Southern Edinburgh and they may find that to their disadvantage this time around. However, this area was over 60% NO in the referendum and so I expect to be close but not that close. SNP GAIN.
MIDLOTHIAN - A lot of what I said East Lothian also applies here, except the SNP are in a better position already. SNP GAIN.

Will do Glasgow, Borders and the rest of the central belt later.

[Harry Hayfield]

Vote Shares (GB only)

Conservatives - 34.41%
Labour - 31.87%
Liberal Democrats - 8.10%
UKIP - 14.36%
Greens - 5.19%
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 4.98% (SNP 4.11%, Plaid 0.87%)

Seats

Conservatives - 284
Labour - 282
Liberal Democrats - 23
UKIP - 0
Greens - 1
SNP- 37
Plaid- 3
Galloway- 0
Other- 20 (Northern Ireland 18, Speaker 1, National Health Action 1)

Likely Government - Con + Lib Dem with DUP/UUP supply and confidence

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour 37% winning 21 seats
SNP 47% winning 37 seats
Liberal Democrats 5% winning 1 seat
Conservative 9% winning 0 seats
Greens 1% winning 0 seats
UKIP 1% winning 0 seats
Others 0% winning 0 seats

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon- SNP
Glasgow North- SNP
Stirling- SNP

Berwick Upon Tweed- Con
Stockton South - Lab
Redcar- Lab

Bury North- Lab
Southport- Lib Dem
Heywood and Middleton- Lab

Rotherham- Lab
Colne Valley- Con
Bradford West- Lab
Sheffield Hallam- Lib Dem

Boston and Skegness- Con
Broxtowe- Lab
Loughborough- Con

Worcester- Con
Dudley South - Con
Warwickshire North- Lab

Ynys Mon- Lab
Ceredigion- Lib Dem
Vale of Glamorgan- Con

Camborne and Redruth- Con
Bristol West- Lib Dem
Wells- Con

Brighton Pavillion- Green
Thanet South- Con
Rochester and Strood- Con

Kingston and Surbiton - Lib Dem
Battersea- Con
Enfield North- Lab

Norwich South- Lab
Clacton- Con
Thurrock- Lab

[Diouf]

Vote Shares (GB only)

Conservatives - 34.8%
Labour - 32.1%
Liberal Democrats - 9.1%
UKIP - 11.8%
Greens - 4.1%
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 5.0%

Seats

Conservatives - 282
Labour - 264
Liberal Democrats - 27
UKIP - 2
Greens - 1
SNP- 50
Plaid- 4
Galloway- 1
Other- 19 (NI + Speaker)

Likely Government -
Labour minority government

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour 25.0% - 6 seats
SNP - 48.2% - 50
Liberal Democrats 5.1 % - 1
Conservative - 17.6% - 2
Greens - 1.5% - 0
UKIP - 1.8% - 0
Others 0.8% - 0

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon- SNP
Glasgow North- SNP
Stirling- SNP

Berwick Upon Tweed- Con
Stockton South - Lab
Redcar- Lab

Bury North- Lab
Southport- Lib Dem
Heywood and Middleton- Lab

Rotherham- Lab
Colne Valley- Con
Bradford West- Respect
Sheffield Hallam- Lib Dem

Boston and Skegness- Con
Broxtowe- Lab
Loughborough- Con

Worcester- Con
Dudley South - Con
Warwickshire North- Lab

Ynys Mon- Plaid
Ceredigion- Lib Dem
Vale of Glamorgan- Con

Camborne and Redruth- Con
Bristol West- Lab
Wells- Con

Brighton Pavillion- Green
Thanet South- Con
Rochester and Strood- Con

Kingston and Surbiton - Lib
Battersea- Con
Enfield North- Lab

Norwich South- Lab
Clacton- UKIP
Thurrock- UKIP

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Scotland - Part Two

Glasgow and Western Central Belt (Placeholder: I'll put in analysis later)
MOTHERWELL AND WISHAW - A seat in North Lanarkshire, where YES won in the referendum despite Labour's dominance here. Given that the dominance is most likely to erode most dramatically in places like this, it is hard given the tide to see this as anything other than an SNP GAIN.
COATBRIDGE, CHRYSTON AND BELLSHILL - SNP GAIN
CUMBERNAULD, KILSYTH AND KIRKINTILLOCH EAST - SNP GAIN
EAST DUMBARTONSHIRE - SNP GAIN
WEST DUMBARTONSHIRE - The council area voted YES in the referendum - and by a surprisingly strong margin. Given that, it is hard to see it resisting the tide. SNP GAIN
GLASGOW NORTH WEST - SNP GAIN
GLASGOW NORTH - SNP GAIN
GLASGOW NORTH EAST - SNP GAIN
GLASGOW EAST - SNP GAIN
GLASGOW CENTRAL - SNP GAIN
GLASGOW SOUTH - SNP GAIN
GLASGOW SOUTH WEST - SNP GAIN
RUTHERGLEN AND HAMILTON WEST - LAB HOLD
LANARK AND HAMILTON EAST - SNP GAIN
EAST KILBRIDE, STRATHAVEN AND LESMAHAGOW - SNP GAIN
EAST RENFREWSHIRE - LAB HOLD
PAISLEY AND RENFREWSHIRE SOUTH - SNP GAIN
PAISLEY AND RENFREWSHIRE NORTH - SNP GAIN
INVERCLYDE - The referendum almost passed in the council area and the SNP were already a strong second in 2010. Hard to see this as anything other than a gain. SNP GAIN

Borders and South-West Scotland
NORTH AYRSHIRE AND ARRAN - SNP GAIN
KILMARNOCK AND LOUDOUN - SNP GAIN
CENTRAL AYRSHIRE - SNP GAIN
AYR, CARRICK AND CUMNOCK - At Hollyrood this is divided between the Ayr constituency which the Tories hold but the SNP were in a decent second last time around and the Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley seat which the SNP held comfortably from Labour. This is a decent seat for the Conservatives in Scotland but they are still tracking well behind Labour at Westminster. However, given Hollyrood and the general trend you would suspect the odds favour the SNP substantially. SNP GAIN.
DUMFRIES AND GALLOWAY - This was always the border constituency where the SNP had the greatest shot given their previous ownership of equivalent seats here and the divided opposition. Tactical voting from Tories to save Labour could make this close, but this isn't as NO an area as further East and given the SNP's other poll ratings along the border is it hard to see another result. SNP GAIN.
DUMFRIESHIRE, CLYDESDALE AND TWEEDDALE - A recent Ashcroft has put the SNP well ahead here, which is a bit surprising given that this is the borders; a sign of the SNP's surge across Scotland. The only thing that could save the Tories is tactically voting from Labour voters.... but how likely is that? Especially on the necessary scale? - SNP GAIN
BERWICKSHIRE, ROXBURGH AND SELKIRK - One of Ashcroft's recent polls put this in an effective three way tie between the SNP, the Tories and the incumbent Lib Dems. But Ashcroft's polls crucially do not name individuals in their question - only parties. Also despite their good showing in Dumfrieshire, there's definitely a perhaps bit too-low ceiling for the SNP here. With that in mind and the fact that Lib Dems clearly have a base here (it's long been a seat and they are not collapsing) I will predict this a LIB DEM HOLD.

[morgieb]

Vote Shares (GB only)

Conservatives - 34.7%
Labour - 33.8%
Liberal Democrats - 8.3%
UKIP - 11.4%
Greens - 4.3%
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 6.1%

Seats

Conservatives - 278
Labour - 274
Liberal Democrats - 22
UKIP - 1
Greens - 1
SNP- 51
Plaid- 3
Galloway- 1
Other- 19

Likely Government - Labour Minority w/ SNP confidence + supply

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour - 27.5% - 6
SNP - 48.4% - 51
Liberal Democrats - 5.3% - 1
Conservative - 14.6% - 1
Greens - 1.5% - 0
UKIP - 1.7% - 0
Others - 1.0% - 0

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon - SNP
Glasgow North - SNP
Stirling - SNP

Berwick Upon Tweed - Conservative
Stockton South - Labour
Redcar - Labour

Bury North - Labour
Southport - Liberal Democrats
Heywood and Middleton - Labour

Rotherham - Labour
Colne Valley - Labour
Bradford West - Respect
Sheffield Hallam - Liberal Democrats

Boston and Skegness - Conservative
Broxtowe - Labour
Loughborough - Conservative

Worcester - Conservative
Dudley South - Labour
Warwickshire North - Labour

Ynys Mon - Plaid Cymru
Ceredigion - Liberal Democrats
Vale of Glamorgan - Conservative

Camborne and Redruth - Conservative
Bristol West - Labour
Wells - Conservative

Brighton Pavillion - Green
Thanet South - Conservative
Rochester and Strood - Conservative

Kingston and Surbiton - Liberal Democrats
Battersea - Conservative
Enfield North - Labour

Norwich South - Labour
Clacton - UKIP
Thurrock - Labour

[Tetro Kornbluth]

North East

Nothing very exciting to report here but might as well get it out of the way...

Northumberland and Tyne and Wear
BERWICK UPON TWEED - Last time around it was surprisingly between Beith and the Tory candidate. This time there is no Beith and the Tory support nationally is static. This favours them. CON GAIN.
HEXHAM - No indications of change here and no reason to suspect it. This is the English countryside. CON HOLD.
WANSBECK - Coal country with a very left-wing MP. No change. LAB HOLD
BLYTH - Might be worth looking at UKIP's total here... of course Second place is the most they can accomplish. LAB HOLD.
TYNEMOUTH - Suburban, so I would suspect the swing will be low or possibly negative. But this is Newcastle, come on. LAB HOLD.
NORTH TYNESIDE - Will be amusing to see where the Lib Dem vote goes - a possible UKIP second place? If so, it will be by miles. Also I note with amusement/horror that the National Front have a candidate here. LAB HOLD.
JARROW - Another seat where they might as well weight the vote. LAB HOLD.
NEWCASTLE EAST - Another seat where the most interesting thing will be the missing Lib Dem vote. Will help increase the Labour majority anyway. LAB HOLD.
NEWCASTLE CENTRAL - Another seat where the Lib Dem vote will probably collapse.... and also where the BNP maintained their deposit? A good sign for UKIP? But then it would be wrong to see that BNP vote as essentially transferable to UKIP. Increased Labour Majority. LAB HOLD.
GATESHEAD - See Jarrow. LAB HOLD.
NEWCASTLE NORTH - Another seat where the greatest mystery will be what will happen to the Lib Dem vote. So like most of the rest of the North East then. LAB HOLD.
BLAYDON - See Newcastle North. LAB HOLD.
WASHINGTON AND SUNDERLAND WEST - Another where the scales will be necessary.  LAB HOLD.
SUNDERLAND CENTRAL - There's a respectable Tory vote here, but not respectable enough to win... not in 2015. LAB HOLD.
SOUTH SHIELDS - That UKIP finished (a very distant) second in the by-election should only indicate the sheer lack of opposition here rather than anything about their own prospects. LAB HOLD.
HOUGHTON AND SUNDERLAND SOUTH - Apparently this will be the first to declare... thus giving it far more attention than is perhaps needed. LAB HOLD.

Durham
NORTH DURHAM -  See Washington and Sunderland West. LAB HOLD.
CITY OF DURHAM - I expect a much better than for this region Greens' vote to fester on the corpse of the Lib Dems, but a much larger Labour majority. LAB HOLD.
EASINGTON - Easington is apparently the largest town in Britain without a high street bank, which should tell you everything about its politics. LAB HOLD.
SEDGEFIELD - Again the only mystery here is who will finish second. Probably the Tories by default. LAB HOLD.
DARLINGTON - This was the last seat (in the 1987-92 parliament) in Durham to have been held by the Tories. They didn't win it back in 2010 so they won't do so now. LAB HOLD.
BISHOP AUCKLAND - According to Ford/Goodwin, the two academics who 'specialize' in UKIP, this is a potential target for them. Given local results and this seat's electoral history that's very.... optimistic from a UKIP point of view. LAB HOLD.
NORTH WEST DURHAM - See North Durham. LAB HOLD.

'Cleveland'
HARTLEPOOL - This one of UKIP's major targets in the region and the Monkeyhangers do have unusual politics. But in Peter Mandelson's old seat Labour is far too well-entrenched, expect UKIP to come second though. LAB HOLD.
STOCKTON NORTH - Another place with some UKIP potential perhaps but didn't show it council elections. Tories to finish second by default. Lib Dems already weak here. LAB HOLD.
MIDDLESBOROUGH - See South Shields. LAB HOLD.
STOCKTON SOUTH - Suburbia, and so not friendly to Labour this time around... but the swing needed is very narrow and this is the North-East. Tories will put all the regional energy into retaining this but will probably fall short. LAB GAIN but perhaps by a very narrow margin.
MIDDLESBOROUGH SOUTH AND EAST CLEVELAND - Also suburban, but the Tories failed in their attempt five years ago and so are certainly going to fail now when they are more distracted by other places. LAB HOLD.
REDCAR - Perhaps the most shocking result of the last election in Great Britain anyway with a Lib Dem pickup probably thanks to the closure of a local steel plant but the incumbent is retiring after one term and the Lib Dems are collapsing everywhere so LAB GAIN and quite easily too.

So for the North-East that's Lab 27 Con 2... We'll move on to less predictable climes a bit later.

[Harry Hayfield]

Final Forecast
Vote Shares (GB only)

Conservatives - 34.98%
Labour - 32.65%
Liberal Democrats - 8.53%
UKIP - 13.53%
Greens - 4.94%
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 4.91% (SNP 4.31%, Plaid 0.60%)

Seats

Conservatives - 276
Labour - 266
Liberal Democrats - 25
UKIP - 3
Greens - 1
SNP- 57
Plaid- 3
Galloway- 0
Other- 19

Likely Government - SNP hold the balance (Current Coalition 310 with DUP support, Alternative Coalition 298)

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour - 25.16% winning 1 seat
SNP - 50.16% winning 57 seats
Liberal Democrats - 6.29% winning 1 seat
Conservative - 14.93% winning 0 seats
Greens - 1.74% winning 0 seats
UKIP - 1.70% winning 0 seats
Others - 0.02% winning 0 seats

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon - SNP
Glasgow North - SNP
Stirling - SNP

Berwick Upon Tweed - Conservative
Stockton South - Labour
Redcar - Labour

Bury North - Labour
Southport - Liberal Democrats
Heywood and Middleton - Labour

Rotherham - Labour
Colne Valley - Conservative
Bradford West - Labour
Sheffield Hallam - Liberal Democrats

Boston and Skegness - Conservative
Broxtowe - Labour
Loughborough - Conservative

Worcester - Conservative
Dudley South - Conservative
Warwickshire North - Labour

Ynys Mon - Labour
Ceredigion - Liberal Democrats
Vale of Glamorgan - Conservative

Camborne and Redruth - Conservative
Bristol West - Labour
Wells - Conservative

Brighton Pavillion - Green
Thanet South - UKIP
Rochester and Strood - Conservative

Kingston and Surbiton - Liberal Democrats
Battersea - Conservative
Enfield North - Labour

Norwich South - Labour
Clacton - UKIP
Thurrock - UKIP

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Yorkshire and the Humber

North Yorkshire
SCARBOROUGH AND WHITBY - Decaying seaside towns and regional centre so I expect a) a good UKIP performance and b) a decent-sized above-average swing to Labour (the key word here is 'swing'). This will have not enough impact to change the overall result. CON HOLD
RICHMOND (YORKS) - Hague is retiring but this will, of course, make little difference to even the scale of Tory dominance here. Expect this to be among their highest majorities again, if not the highest. CON HOLD.
THIRSK AND MALTON - This whole area of Yorkshire is among the deepest blue of the Tory gene pool and, despite some issues over deselection, it is hard to see how anyone will get even close, especially considering the already 10,000+ plus majority is artifically low given the special circumstances of last time. CON HOLD.
YORK OUTER - This is a very oddly shaped constituency designed basically to take in suburbs and the regions around York city, almost a gerrymander to make sure York would be divided between a Tory-Lib Dem Marginal and a safe Labour seat. Well it is 2015 and the Lib Dem threat has receded nationally and there's no sign of this seat going any other way in the current environment. CON HOLD.
YORK CENTRAL - If York Outer was a seat designed to be a Tory-favoured marginal, this one was created to benefit Labour. A 6,000+ majority last time, not going to change this time. LAB HOLD.
SELBY AND AINSTY - Boundary changes for 2010 really didn't benefit Labour here and there was a collapse in their vote in 2010 (-17.1 points) possibly due to the incumbent retiring. Given the size of the majority and the demographic profile, little change is forseen. CON HOLD.
HARROGATE AND KNARESBOROUGH - This is the sort of market town where the Lib Dem vote might hold up somewhat. But enough to win? Seems rather unlikely. CON HOLD.
SKIPTON AND RIPON - The Lib Dems were a distant second last time. Will do well to repeat that performance. CON HOLD.

West Yorkshire (Placeholder - will put analysis later)
KEIGHLEY - LAB GAIN
CALDER VALLEY - CON HOLD
COLNE VALLEY - LAB GAIN
HALIFAX - LAB HOLD
HUDDESFIELD - LAB HOLD
DEWSBURY - LAB GAIN
BATLEY AND SPEN - LAB HOLD (but don't bet against a swing to the Tories)
BRADFORD SOUTH - LAB HOLD
BRADFORD WEST - RESPECT CONFIRM GAIN FROM BY-ELECTION (alas)
BRADFORD EAST - LAB GAIN
SHIPLEY - CON HOLD
PUDSEY - CON HOLD
LEEDS NORTH WEST - LAB GAIN
LEEDS NORTH EAST - LAB HOLD
LEEDS EAST - LAB HOLD
LEEDS CENTRAL - LAB HOLD
LEEDS WEST - LAB HOLD
MORLEY AND OUTWOOD - Given that the Tories failed to 'decapitate' Ed Balls in 2010, their chances this time around can't be so rosy, despite the incessant ramping. LAB HOLD.
WAKEFIELD - LAB HOLD (although might be one of the better chances of a Tory Gain from Labour)
HEMSWORTH - LAB HOLD
NORMANTON, PONTEFRACT, AND CASTLEFORD - LAB HOLD
ELMET AND ROTHWELL - CON HOLD

South Yorkshire
DONCASTER NORTH - Obviously a UKIP/CLARKSON GAIN... nahh, you know how this one will end. LAB HOLD.
DONCASTER CENTRAL - LAB HOLD
DON VALLEY - LAB HOLD
ROTHER VALLEY - LAB HOLD (but... expect an unusually good UKIP performance)
ROTHERHAM - LAB HOLD
WENTWORTH AND DEARNE - Given the Rotherham scandal there is a ridiculous amount of UKIP ramping in this seat. They won't be anywhere near close. LAB HOLD.
BARNSLEY EAST - LAB HOLD
BARNSLEY CENTRAL - What I said about South Shields earlier also applies here. UKIP's second should be seen as a sign of non-Labour weakness not any real UKIP potential. LAB HOLD.
PENINSTONE AND STOCKBRIDGE - LAB HOLD (but another with good UKIP potential, given local results)
SHEFFIELD HALLAM - So we come to one of the closest watched seats of the election. Nick Clegg is being challenged by Labour in this very non-Labour seat. Despite Ashcroft's polls the overall nature of the consistency is not very favourable to a left-wing challenge to a man who in many ways has become the face of 'the establishment' since 2010 (remember Cleggmania? lol). There isn't enough students here and Conservative voters will probably rally to Clegg in his defense. So a narrow hold but I hope I'm wrong. LIB DEM HOLD.
SHEFFIELD HEELEY - LAB HOLD
SHEFFIELD CENTRAL - LAB HOLD (possibly Greens in second).
SHEFFIELD BRIGHTSIDE AND HILLSBOROUGH - LAB HOLD
SHEFFIELD SOUTH EAST - LAB HOLD

'Humberside'
EAST YORKSHIRE - Absurdly named seat, clear result. CON HOLD.
BEVERLEY AND HOLDERNESS - CON HOLD.
HALTEMPRICE AND HOWDEN - CON HOLD.
HULL WEST AND HESSLE - LAB HOLD
HULL NORTH - LAB HOLD.
HULL EAST - LAB HOLD.
CLEETHORPES - CON HOLD
GREAT GRIMSBY - LAB HOLD
Sc**ntHORPE - LAB HOLD
BRIGG AND GOOLE - CON HOLD.

So that's Lab +4 Con -3 LD -2 Respect +1
Giving overall Labour 35, Conservatives 16, Lib Dems 1 and Respect 1.