The UK General Election Prediction Thread

[Clyde1998]

Jim Murphy creating new words in tonight's Scotland Debate: https://vine.co/v/eZz7BWWeKgY

[The Other Castro]

If you can't beat em, confuse em

[Clyde1998]

Jim Murphy creating new words in tonight's Scotland Debate: https://vine.co/v/eZz7BWWeKgY

I've just released that I posted this in the wrong thread...

[Talleyrand]

My (uninformed) guess

Vote Shares (GB only)

Conservatives - 35.9%
Labour - 32.8%
Liberal Democrats - 8.1%
UKIP - 11.0%
Greens - 5.3%
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 5.1%

Seats

Conservatives - 287
Labour - 261
Liberal Democrats - 21
UKIP - 1
Greens - 1
SNP- 55
Plaid- 4
Galloway- 1
Other- 19

Likely Government - Labour Minority?

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour- 22.1% (1)
SNP- 50.9% (55)
Liberal Democrats- 4.9% (1)
Conservative- 18.1% (2)
Greens- 1.6%
UKIP- 1.7%
Others- 0.7%

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon- SNP
Glasgow North- SNP
Stirling- SNP

Berwick Upon Tweed- CON
Stockton South - LAB
Redcar- LAB

Bury North- LAB
Southport- LIB
Heywood and Middleton- LAB

Rotherham- LAB
Colne Valley- CON
Bradford West- RESPECT
Sheffield Hallam- LIB

Boston and Skegness- CON
Broxtowe- LAB
Loughborough- CON

Worcester- CON
Dudley South- CON
Warwickshire North- LAB

Ynys Mon- LAB
Ceredigion- PLAID
Vale of Glamorgan- CON

Camborne and Redruth- CON
Bristol West- LAB
Wells- CON

Brighton Pavillion- GRN
Thanet South- CON
Rochester and Strood- CON

Kingston and Surbiton- LIB
Battersea- CON
Enfield North- LAB

Norwich South- LAB
Clacton- UKIP
Thurrock- CON

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Alas, I'm not going to have time to complete my seat-by-seat analysis so I'm here going to make predictions on gains and losses per region

North-West

LAB gain from CON: Carlisle, City of Chester, Crewe and Nantwich, Lancaster and Fleetwood, Morecambe and Lunsdale, Pendle, Rossendale and Darwen, Warrington South, Weaver Vale, Wirral West
LAB gain from LIB DEM: Burnley, Manchester Withington

LAB +12 CON -10 LIB DEM -2

Possible Wild Card: Barrow and Furness: Very unlikely to change hands but given the circumstances of this election, the town that builds nuclear submarines could be more SNPphobic than most and see a decent swing to the Tories.

West Midlands
LAB gain from CON: Cannock Chase, Halsowen and Rowley Regis, North Warwickshire, Wolverhampton South West
CON gain from LIB DEM: Solihull

LAB +4 CON -3 LIB DEM -1

Wild Cards: Wyre Forest: UKIP are apparently strong in this seat and Doctor Taylor is running again. While the Tories are clearly favoured here there could be some interesting vote splitting and weird results. One to look out for.
Redditch: Because of the expenses scandal and the previous incumbent the Labour total from 2010 is probably artifically low. Perhaps a surprise gain?
Stafford: If Labour wins this then we can be pretty confident of a Labour government
Birmingham Edgbaston: Was a surprise Labour hold last time around as the incumbent Gisela Stuart has a big personal vote but if things go wrong for Labour in the West Midlands then this could be one of the Tory pickups.

East Midlands
LAB gain from CON: Amber Valley, Broxtowe, High Peak, Lincoln, Northampton North, Sherwood
LAB confirm gain from by-election: Corby

LAB +7 CON -7

Wild card: Boston and Skegness - Was UKIP's top target but picked an appalling candidate and has slipped away from attention. Still will be worth looking out for
Also what was said about Boston and Skegness can apply to the whole of Lincolnshire. How UKIP will do is one of the great mysteries of the election and if there is an unexpected surge in their support then it will be there among other places.

Eastern
LAB gain from CON: Bedford, Ipswich, Norwich North, Peterborough, Stevenage, Waveney
LAB gain from LIB DEM: Norwich South
UKIP gain from CON: Thurrock
LIB DEM gain from CON: Watford
UKIP confirm gain from by-election: Clacton

LAB +7 CON -9 UKIP +2 LIB DEM 0

Wild card: Castle Point - Ashcroft's last poll put UKIP five behind the Tories... which is comfortably within the MoE (and with 5% on 'others' when there are no other candidates in the race). So I'm surprised to see this written off as one of UKIP's best targets, which it is. Expect it to be close. And for the total right-wing vote to approach 90% in this seat with the most owner-occupiers with mortgages in the United Kingdom.
Also worth watching out for is South Essex, this region is likely to see the best UKIP scores in the United Kingdom and easy second places in safe Tory seats in Rayleigh and Wickford and Brentwood and Ongar. But the area is too much of a Tory bastion to see too much seat loses (UKIP are greatly advantaged in Thurrock as Labour are also quite strong there), or is it? If we get a totally big surprise and unforeseen UKIP gain, it might be here.

London
LAB gain from CON: Brentford and Isleworth, Ealing Central and Acton, Enfield North, Finchley and Golders Green, Hendon, Ilford North
LAB gain from LIB DEM: Brent Central, Hornsey and Wood Green
CON gain from LIB DEM: Carshalton and Wallington, Kingston and Surbiton

LAB +8 CON -4 LIB DEM -4

Wild Card: Hampstead and Kilburn - Area gentrifying and very close last them. The real question is: Where will all those Lib Dem votes go? A possible Tory gain from Labour

South East
LAB gain from CON: Hastings and Rye, Brighton Kemptown, Hove
CON gain from LIB DEM: Portsmouth South, Eastleigh
UKIP gain from CON: Thanet South
UKIP confirm by-election gain from CON: Rochester and Stroud

LAB +3 UKIP +2 CON -3 LIB DEM -2

Wild Cards: Portsmouth South - with the incumbent running as an independent and thus pissing off the Lib Dems that supported him for years - but they are still strong in the area - and decent UKIP and Labour votes this could be won with an unusually small margin. Have gone for a Tory gain, but god who knows?
Maidstone and the Weald: A possible Lib Dem gain here, unlikely but more likely than them holding onto about 20 of their present seats.

South West
LAB gain from CON: Plymouth Sutton and Devonport, Stroud
LAB gain from LIB DEM: Bristol West
CON gain from LIB DEM: Cheltenham, Chippenham, North Devon, Mid Dorset and North Poole, St Austell and Newquay, Somerton and Frome, Taunton Deane, Wells

LAB +3 CON +6 LIB DEM -9

Wild Cards: East Devon: Apparently there is a very strong independent running in this safe Tory seat... might be one to look out for?
Bournemouth-Poole-Christchurch conurbation: Possible good UKIP territory. Actually stretch that for a lot of the seaside resorts in this area of the world. And very underpolled too.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

So that's...

NI: UUP +1 AP -1
Wales: LAB +2 CON -1 LIB DEM -2 PLAID +1
Scotland: LAB -36 CON -1 LIB DEM -9 SNP +46
North-East: LAB +2 CON 0 LIB DEM -2
Yorkshire and the Humber: LAB +4 CON -3 LIB DEM -2 RESPECT +1
North-West: LAB +12 CON -10 LIB DEM -2
West Midlands: LAB +4 CON -3 LIB DEM -1
East Midlands: LAB +7 CON -7
Eastern: LAB +7 CON -9 LIB DEM 0 UKIP +2
London: LAB +8 CON -4 LIB DEM -4
South East: LAB +3 CON -3 LIB DEM -2 UKIP +2
South West: LAB +3 CON +6 LIB DEM -9

Overall... LAB +18 CON -35 LIB DEM -32 UKIP +4 SNP +46 Plaid +1 Respect +1 UUP +1 AP -1

Result: Labour 274 Conservative 271 Liberal Democrats 25 UKIP 4 SNP 52 Plaid 4 Respect 1 NI Parties 18

[Double Carpet]

A final call if anyone would like to play the free-to-enter election game for the UK, it's available at:

electiongame.co.uk/uk15/

Entries close 7pm BST tomorrow.

Many thanks,

DC

[jaichind]

Vote Shares (GB only)

Conservatives -  35
Labour -  32
Liberal Democrats - 11
UKIP - 12
Greens - 4
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 4.5

Seats

Conservatives - 288 
Labour -  257
Liberal Democrats - 26
UKIP - 3
Greens - 1
SNP- 52
Plaid- 3
Galloway - 1
Other- 18 NI 1 Speaker

Likely Government - CON-LD

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour - 28 - 5 seats
SNP - 46   - 52 seats
Liberal Democrats - 8 - 1 seat
Conservative - 14 - 1 seat
Greens - 2
UKIP - 2
Others

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon-  SNP
Glasgow North- SNP
Stirling- SNP

Berwick Upon Tweed- LD
Stockton South - LAB
Redcar- LD

Bury North- CON
Southport- LD
Heywood and Middleton- LAB

Rotherham- LAB
Colne Valley- CON
Bradford West- Respect
Sheffield Hallam- LD

Boston and Skegness- UKIP
Broxtowe- CON
Loughborough- CON

Worcester- CON
Dudley South - CON
Warwickshire North- LAB

Ynys Mon- LAB
Ceredigion- LD
Vale of Glamorgan- CON

Camborne and Redruth- CON
Bristol West- LAB
Wells- CON

Brighton Pavillion-  Green
Thanet South- CON
Rochester and Strood- CON

Kingston and Surbiton - LD
Battersea- CON
Enfield North- LAB

Norwich South- LAB
Clacton- UKIP
Thurrock- UKIP

[Phony Moderate]

Vote Shares (GB only)

Conservatives - 34.5%
Labour - 33.3%
Liberal Democrats - 10.0%
UKIP - 11.2%
Greens - 4.1%
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 4.7%

Seats

Conservatives - 271
Labour - 271
Liberal Democrats - 29
UKIP - 4
Greens - 1
SNP- 51
Plaid- 3
Galloway- 1
Other- 19 (including the Speaker)

Likely Government - Labour minority

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour - 27%/6 seats
SNP - 46%/ 51 seats
Liberal Democrats - 5%/1 seat
Conservative - 16%/ 1 seat
Greens - 2%
UKIP - 3%
Others - 1%

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon- SNP gain
Glasgow North- SNP gain
Stirling- SNP gain

Berwick Upon Tweed- Lib Dem hold on the basis that there was a big swing last time
Stockton South - Labour gain
Redcar- Labour gain

Bury North- Surprise Tory hold
Southport- Lib Dem hold
Heywood and Middleton- Labour hold

Rotherham- Labour hold
Colne Valley- Tory hold
Bradford West- Galloway hold
Sheffield Hallam- Narrow Lib Dem hold (as in under 1,500)

Boston and Skegness- UKIP gain
Broxtowe- Labour gain
Loughborough- Labour gain

Worcester- Tory hold
Dudley South- Labour gain
Warwickshire North- Labour gain

Ynys Mon- Labour hold
Ceredigion- Lib Dem hold
Vale of Glamorgan- Tory hold

Camborne and Redruth- Tory hold
Bristol West- Labour gain (narrowly)
Wells- Lib Dem hold

Brighton Pavillion- Green hold, majority almost identical to last time
Thanet South- UKIP gain
Rochester and Strood- Con regain

Kingston and Surbiton- Lib Dem hold
Battersea- Tory hold
Enfield North- Labour gain

Norwich South- Labour gain
Clacton- UKIP win
Thurrock- UKIP gain

[Tender Branson]

UK result incl. Northern Ireland (GB-result excl. NI)

32.0% CON (32.8%)
30.5% LAB (31.3%)
14.5% UKIP (14.9%)
  9.0% LD (9.4%)
  5.0% Greens (5.2%)
  5.0% SNP (5.2%)
  4.0% Others (1.2%)

Don't know if the BBC will report the total UK result or just the GB result (excl. NI) ...

Seats:

276 CON
265 LAB
  55 SNP
  29 LibDems
    3 UKIP
  22 Others

Neither CON/LDs with a majority (305), nor LAB/SNP (320).

Turnout:

67.7%

Scotland:

52% SNP
26% LAB
14% CON
  5% LibDems
  2% UKIP
  1% Greens

[rpryor03]

Vote Shares (GB only)

Conservatives - 35%
Labour - 32%
Liberal Democrats - 9%
UKIP -14%
Greens - 4%
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 5%

Seats

Conservatives - 282
Labour - 261
Liberal Democrats - 27
UKIP - 2
Greens - 1
SNP- 54
Plaid- 3
Galloway- 1
Other- 19 (inc. Bercow)

Likely Government - No majority to be had, Labour/SNP minority

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour - 26%
SNP - 48%
Liberal Democrats - 5%
Conservative - 14%
Greens - 2%
UKIP - 3%
Others - 2%

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon- SNP
Glasgow North- SNP
Stirling- SNP

Berwick Upon Tweed- CON
Stockton South - LAB
Redcar- LAB

Bury North- LAB
Southport- LD
Heywood and Middleton- LAB

Rotherham- LAB
Colne Valley- CON
Bradford West- RESPECT
Sheffield Hallam- LD

Boston and Skegness- CON
Broxtowe- LAB
Loughborough- CON

Worcester- CON
Dudley South - CON
Warwickshire North- LAB

Ynys Mon- LAB
Ceredigion- LD
Vale of Glamorgan- CON

Camborne and Redruth- CON
Bristol West- LAB
Wells- CON

Brighton Pavillion- GRN
Thanet South- CON
Rochester and Strood- CON

Kingston and Surbiton - LD
Battersea- CON
Enfield North- LAB

Norwich South- LAB
Clacton- UKIP
Thurrock- UKIP

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Here's my predictions

Vote Shares (GB only)

Conservatives - 35%
Labour - 33%
Liberal Democrats - 9%
UKIP - 14%
Greens - 4%
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 5%

Seats

Conservatives - 281
Labour - 273
Liberal Democrats - 28
UKIP - 3
Greens - 1
SNP - 41
Plaid Cymru - 3
Respect - 1
Speaker - 1
NI - 18 (9 DUP, 5 SF, 3 SDLP, 1 IND)

Likely Government - Labour/SNP minority government, with assistance from other parties. No coalition of any kind.

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour - 25%
SNP - 49%
Liberal Democrats - 5%
Conservative - 15%
Greens - 2%
UKIP - 3%
Others - 1%

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon- SNP
Glasgow North- SNP
Stirling- SNP

Berwick Upon Tweed - CON
Stockton South - LAB
Redcar - LAB

Bury North - CON
Southport - LD
Heywood and Middleton - LAB

Rotherham - LAB
Colne Valley - CON
Bradford West - RESPECT
Sheffield Hallam - LD

Boston and Skegness - CON
Broxtowe - LAB
Loughborough - CON

Worcester- CON
Dudley South - CON
Warwickshire North- LAB

Ynys Mon - LAB
Ceredigion - LD
Vale of Glamorgan - CON

Camborne and Redruth - CON
Bristol West - LAB
Wells - CON

Brighton Pavillion - GRN
Thanet South - UKIP
Rochester and Strood - CON

Kingston and Surbiton - LD
Battersea - CON
Enfield North - LAB

Norwich South - LAB
Clacton - UKIP
Thurrock - UKIP

[kcguy]

I have predictions of another kind, although mine are way too obvious:

1.  Someone will say something like "Remember, in 1992, the exit polls famously declared Labour the winner."  I have two problems with this:
     a.  This person won't mention that there have been 4 elections since then, nor will anyone do an analysis of how accurate the exit polls have been since then.
     b.  If you look at the video, you'll note that the first BBC announcement in 1992 actually predicted that the Conservatives would be the largest party, not Labour.  (Although, to be fair, the exit poll did completely miss that the Conservatives would get anywhere near a majority.)

2.  The news media will spend much of the first hour reporting on some voting irregularity, such as missing postal votes or people being turned away when the polls close.  The media will go on and on about how this can't be allowed to happen in a functioning democracy, and then they will promptly forget about the topic for the next five years.

3.  Someone--probably Shirley Williams, if she's still alive--will confidently predict that their party is winning in Cardiff Central, Buckingham, Dundee East, Ohio, and Mars.  Some of these predictions will be slightly optimistic.

4.  Politicians of all parties will attempt to explain how it's morally impossible for their opponents to form a government.  In particular:
a.  Labour politicians and their allies will demand to know how David Cameron can possibly stay in office one minute longer, when the voters have clearly rejected both him and his coalition partners by robbing him of his majority.
b.  If Conservatives get the most votes and/or seats of any single party, they and their allies will demand to know how Labour could even consider trying to form a government when the people clearly prefer the Conservatives.
c.  Whatever the placement of the top two parties, I predict that those on the Right will demand that Ed Milliband immediately denounce any possibility of any agreement, formal or informal, with any party that might threaten to break up the United Kingdom at any unnamed date in the future.  (Unless, of course, the Conservatives think they have a chance of forming a coalition with the SNP, at which point they will recognize how wonderful the Scottish people and culture are, mentioning how they look forward to working with the duly elected representatives of a people who are such an integral part of the UK.)

[dadge]

Vote Shares (GB only)

Conservatives - 35
Labour - 30.5
Liberal Democrats - 10.5
UKIP - 12.5
Greens - 4
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 5

Seats

Conservatives - 295
Labour - 260
Liberal Democrats - 21
UKIP - 3
Greens - 1
SNP- 48
Plaid- 3
Galloway- 1
Other- 0

Likely Government - Con-LD coalition

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour 27 - 9
SNP 47 - 48
Liberal Democrats 6.5 - 1
Conservative 15 - 1
Greens 1.5 - 0
UKIP 2 - 0
Others 1 - 0

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon- SNP
Glasgow North- SNP
Stirling- SNP

Berwick Upon Tweed- Con
Stockton South - Lab
Redcar- Lab

Bury North- Lab
Southport- LD
Heywood and Middleton- Lab

Rotherham- Lab
Colne Valley- Con
Bradford West- Respect
Sheffield Hallam- LD

Boston and Skegness- Con
Broxtowe- Lab
Loughborough- Con

Worcester- Con
Dudley South- Con
Warwickshire North- Lab

Ynys Mon- Lab
Ceredigion- LD
Vale of Glamorgan- Lab

Camborne and Redruth- Con
Bristol West- Lab
Wells- Con

Brighton Pavillion- Green
Thanet South- Ukip
Rochester and Strood- Con

Kingston and Surbiton- LD
Battersea- Con
Enfield North- Lab

Norwich South- Lab
Clacton- Ukip
Thurrock- Ukip

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

I am not familiar enough with UK politics to make very specific predictions, but I'm willing to go out on a limb here:

1.) Conservatives barely edge out Labour as largest party in Parliament, by no more than 10 seats.
2.) Conservatives have the largest share of the vote, but no more than 35% of the vote, and lead Labour by no more than 1.5%
3.) Despite this, Labour + SNP + some other party (Greens? Hell, even LibDems? idk) manage to cobble a hilariously confused coalition government together


Though I am thoroughly prepared to have my mind blown tomorrow.

[andrew_c]

Vote Shares (GB only)

Conservatives - 34.5
Labour - 33.6
Liberal Democrats - 9.5
UKIP - 13.6
Greens - 3.8
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 4.9

Seats

Conservatives - 277
Labour - 269
Liberal Democrats - 30
UKIP - 5
Greens - 1
SNP- 47
Plaid- 2
Galloway- 1
Other- 18

Likely Government - LAB Minority

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour 25.9
SNP 48.6
Liberal Democrats 6.7
Conservative 11.3
Greens 3.5
UKIP 2.6
Others 1.4

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon- SNP gain
Glasgow North- SNP gain
Stirling- SNP gain

Berwick Upon Tweed- CON gain
Stockton South - LAB gain
Redcar- LAB gain

Bury North- CON hold
Southport- LD hold
Heywood and Middleton- LAB hold

Rotherham- LAB hold
Colne Valley- LAB gain
Bradford West- Respect hold
Sheffield Hallam- LD hold

Boston and Skegness- UKIP gain
Broxtowe- LAB gain
Loughborough- LAB gain

Worcester- CON hold
Dudley South- CON hold
Warwickshire North- CON hold

Ynys Mon- LAB gain
Ceredigion- LD hold
Vale of Glamorgan- CON hold

Camborne and Redruth- CON hold
Bristol West- LAB gain
Wells- CON gain

Brighton Pavillion- GRN hold
Thanet South- UKIP gain
Rochester and Strood- UKIP hold

Kingston and Surbiton- LD hold
Battersea- CON hold
Enfield North- CON hold

Norwich South- LAB gain
Clacton- UKIP hold
Thurrock- UKIP gain

[Jahiegel]

Vote shares (GB only)

Conservatives - 34.5%
Labour - 33.2%
Liberal Democrats - 9.5%
UKIP - 12.4%
Greens - 4.6%
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 4.4%

Seats

Conservatives - 279
Labour - 264
Liberal Democrats - 27
UKIP - 2
Greens - 1
SNP - 54
Plaid - 3
Galloway - 1
Other - 19 (DUP - 9, Sinn Féin - 5, SDLP - 3, Independent [Hermon] - 1, Speaker - 1)

Likely Government - Labour minority

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour - 26.6%, 3 seats (Glasgow North East, Rutherglen and Hamilton West, and either Dunfermline and West Fife or Edinburgh South)
SNP - 48.6%, 54 seats
Liberal Democrats - 5.4%, 1 seat (Orkney and Shetland, obvs)
Conservative - 15.2%, 1 seat (Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk)
Greens - 1.5%, 0 seats
UKIP - 2.2%, 0 seats
Others - 0.6%. 0 seats

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon - SNP (gain)
Glasgow North - SNP (gain)
Stirling - SNP (gain)

Berwick Upon Tweed - Conservative (gain)
Stockton South - Labour (gain)
Redcar- Labour (gain)

Bury North - Labour (gain)
Stockport - Labour (hold) 
Heywood and Middleton - Labour (hold)

Rotherham - Labour (hold)
Colne Valley - Conservative (hold)
Bradford West - Respect (hold)
Sheffield Hallam - Liberal Democrats (hold)

Boston and Skegness - Conservative (hold)
Broxtowe - Labour (gain)
Loughborough - Conservative (hold)

Worcester - Conservative (hold)
Dudley South - Conservative (hold)
Warwickshire North - Labour (gain)

Ynys Mon - Labour (hold)
Ceredigion - Liberal Democrats (hold)
Vale of Glamorgan - Conservative (hold)

Camborne and Redruth - Conservative (hold)
Bristol West - Labour (gain)
Wells - Conservative (gain)

Brighton Pavillion - Green (hold)
Thanet South - Conservative (hold)
Rochester and Strood - Conservative (gain)

Kingston and Surbiton - Liberal Democrats (hold)
Battersea - Conservative (hold)
Enfield North - Labour (gain)

Norwich South - Labour (gain)
Clacton - UKIP (hold)
Thurrock - UKIP (gain)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Vote Shares (GB only)

Conservatives - 35.9%
Labour - 34.1%
Liberal Democrats - 10.4%
UKIP - 11%
Greens - 5%
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 4.6%

Seats

Conservatives - 278
Labour - 271
Liberal Democrats - 28
UKIP - 1
Greens - 1
SNP - 48
Plaid Cymru - 3
Respect - 1
Speaker - 1
NI - 18

Likely Government - Labour minority

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour - 29.6% - 5
SNP - 46.9% - 48
Liberal Democrats - 5.5% - 1
Conservative - 12% - 1
Greens - 2%
UKIP - 3%
Others - 1%

[YL]

Updated with seat predictions and giving up on Loughborough.

Vote Shares (GB only)

Conservatives - 35%
Labour - 34%
Liberal Democrats - 11%
UKIP - 11%
Greens - 4%
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 5%

Seats

Conservatives - 275
Labour - 268
Liberal Democrats - 27
UKIP - 3
Greens - 1
SNP- 54
Plaid- 3
Galloway- 1
Other- 18

(Change that to Con 274 and Other 19 if you don't count the Speaker as a Tory.  He technically isn't one any more, but because of the way the Deputy Speakers are chosen it makes sense to count him as one, and his constituency is a safe Tory seat.)

Likely Government -

Labour minority

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon- SNP
Glasgow North- SNP
Stirling- SNP

Berwick Upon Tweed- Conservative
Stockton South - Labour
Redcar- Labour

Bury North- Labour
Southport- Lib Dem
Heywood and Middleton- Labour

Rotherham- Labour
Colne Valley- Labour
Bradford West- Respect
Sheffield Hallam- Lib Dem

Boston and Skegness- Conservative
Broxtowe- Labour
Loughborough- Conservative

Worcester- Conservative
Dudley South- Labour
Warwickshire North- Labour

Ynys Môn- Labour
Ceredigion- Lib Dem
Vale of Glamorgan- Conservative

Camborne and Redruth- Conservative
Bristol West- Labour
Wells- Conservative

Brighton Pavillion- Green
Thanet South- UKIP
Rochester and Strood- Conservative

Kingston and Surbiton- Lib Dem
Battersea- Conservative
Enfield North- Labour

Norwich South- Labour
Clacton- UKIP
Thurrock- UKIP

[Serenity Now]

Most of this prediction was put together a week ago or so, so not as sure about it now. However, I don't want to look through every single seat again (which is what I did).  Might as well post it as even a well-informed guess is still just a guess nonetheless..

Vote Shares (GB only)

Conservatives - 32.2%
Labour - 33.4%
Liberal Democrats - 12.5%
UKIP - 11.2%
Greens - 4.2%
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 4.5%

Note: I'm predicting Conservatives to narrowly win the popular vote in England.

Seats

Conservatives - 268
Labour - 285
Liberal Democrats - 26
UKIP - 4
Greens - 1
SNP- 43
Plaid- 3
Galloway- 1
Other- 19 (18 NI and 1 Speaker)

Likely Government - Lab minority

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour 29.2% (13 seats)
SNP 46.6% (43 seats)
Liberal Democrats 5.5% (1 seat)
Conservative 12.4% (2 seats)
Greens 2.4% (0 seats)
UKIP 2.5% (0 seats)
Others 1.4% (0 seats)

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon- SNP gain from LD
Glasgow North- SNP gain from Lab
Stirling- SNP gain from Lab

Berwick Upon Tweed- Con gain from LD
Stockton South - Lab gain from Con
Redcar- Lab gain from LD

Bury North- Lab gain from Con
Southport- LD hold
Heywood and Middleton- Lab hold

Rotherham- Lab hold (UKIP second)
Colne Valley- Con hold
Bradford West- Respect gain from by-election
Sheffield Hallam- LD hold

Boston and Skegness- Con hold (UKIP over 20%)
Broxtowe- Lab gain from Con
Loughborough- Con hold

Worcester- Con hold
Dudley South- Con hold
Warwickshire North- Lab gain from Con

Ynys Mon- Lab hold
Ceredigion- LD hold (could be very split))
Vale of Glamorgan- Con hold

Camborne and Redruth- Con hold
Bristol West- Lab GAIN from LD (Greens in second)
Wells- Con GAIN from LD

Brighton Pavillion- Green hold
Thanet South- UKIP gain from Con
Rochester and Strood- UKIP gain from by-election

Kingston and Surbiton - LD hold
Battersea- Con hold
Enfield North- Lab gain from Con

Norwich South- Lab gain from LD (Greens in second)
Clacton- UKIP gain from by-election
Thurrock- UKIP gain from Con

Note: I'm expecting UKIP's support to be particularly concentrated in Kent and Essex

[Donnie]

Vote Shares (GB only)

Conservatives             35% (288 seats)
Labour                        33% (266 seats)
Liberal Democrats        9% (24 seats)
UKIP                           13% (3 seats)
Greens                         4% (2 seats)
Scottish Nationalist      4% (51 seats)

[SPQR]

Vote Shares (GB only)

Conservatives -33%
Labour - 35%
Liberal Democrats - 9%
UKIP - 13%
Greens -4%
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist -4%

Seats

Conservatives - 271
Labour - 288
Liberal Democrats - 23
UKIP - 1
Greens - 1
SNP- 41
Plaid- 3
Galloway-1
Other-19

Likely Government - Labour minority

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour 28% - 15
SNP 48% - 41
Liberal Democrats 7% - 1
Conservative 14% - 2
Greens 1%
UKIP 1%
Others 1%

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon- SNP
Glasgow North- Lab
Stirling- SNP

Berwick Upon Tweed- Con
Stockton South - Lab
Redcar- Lab

Bury North- Lab
Southport- LD
Heywood and Middleton- Lab

Rotherham- Lab
Colne Valley- Lab
Bradford West- Respect
Sheffield Hallam- Labour

Boston and Skegness- Con
Broxtowe- Lab
Loughborough- Con

Worcester- Lab
Dudley South- Lab
Warwickshire North- Lab

Ynys Mon- Lab
Ceredigion- PC
Vale of Glamorgan- Lab

Camborne and Redruth- Con
Bristol West- Lab
Wells- Con

Brighton Pavillion- Green
Thanet South- Con
Rochester and Strood- Con

Kingston and Surbiton- LD
Battersea- Con
Enfield North- Lab

Norwich South-Lab
Clacton- Con
Thurrock- Lab

[Zanas]

Vote shares (GB only)

Conservatives - 34.5%
Labour - 33.5%
UKIP - 11.8%
Liberal Democrats - 10.5%
Greens - 3.2%
SNP/Plaid Cymru - 4.5%
Other (incl. NI) - 2%

Basically, Tories and Labour sitting on their poll numbers, slight underperformance for Ukip due to tactical voting for the Tories, which Farage kind of opened the door to, compensated with by a slight overperformance from the LibDems, due to loan votes by the Tories in a number of places, not necessarily enough to translat into seats though. I've always believed that the Greens were overpolled too, to my dismay. SNP should perform a bit under the radar comparing to their stratospheric polling level.

Seats
Conservatives - 280
Labour - 274
Liberal Democrats - 23
UKIP - 1
Greens - 1
SNP - 48
Plaid - 3
Respect (Galloway) - 1
Other - 19 (DUP - 9, Sinn Féin - 5, SDLP - 3, Independent [Hermon] - 1, Speaker - 1)

As a consequence, Tories in first, but barely. Expect whining about legitimacy. Labour doing good. LibDems being even more of a joke than they already are, but Clegg saved by loan votes. Ukip only returning one MP, not necessarily Farage, thinking more of Reckless. See SNP below. Greens and Plaid sticking with what they have. To be honest, I copied the "Other", as in Northern Ireland, from someone else.

Likely Government - Labour minority, absence of opposition by SNP allowing the Queens'Speech to pass.

Scotland - Vote share and seats
SNP - 44.5%, 48 seats
Labour - 28%, 8 seats
Conservative - 16%, 2 seats (along the border I guess)
Liberal Democrats - 6%, 1 seat (Orkney and Shetland)
UKIP - 2.5%, 0 seats
Greens - 1.5%, 0 seats
Others - 1.5%, 0 seats

[Oakvale]

My hot take - one thing's for sure... it's too close to call!

[Barnes]

My hot take - one thing's for sure... it's too close to call!

You heard it here first, everyone!