The UK General Election Prediction Thread

[JerryArkansas]

Final prediction with polls open only 2 more hours.
Conservatives at 35% and 275 seat's
Labour at 34.5% and about 270 seats
UKIP at 14% and 3 seats
Lib Dems at 8% and 22 seats

SNP will have about 50% of the vote and 50 seats

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

SNP will have about 50% of the vote and 50 seats

My, my

[Serenity Now]

I will most certainly NOT be accepting my accolades. The lesson I've taken is that it's actually harder to predict an election in one's own country than anywhere else, because you've always got something invested in it, even if you'd rather think that not to be the case.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Just went through my predictions, I got 575/650 constituencies right, or 88.46% right.

Broken down by nation:

England - 478/533 (89.68%)
Wales - 37/40 (92.5%)
Scotland - 44/59 (74.57%)
Northern Ireland - 16/18 (88.88%)

Constituencies I got wrong:

St Ives
North Cornwall
Plymouth Moor View
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport
Torbay
Yeovil
Bath
Thornbury and Yate
Cheltenham
Stroud
Eastleigh
Southampton Itchen
Brighton Kemptown
Eastbourne
Hastings and Rye
Lewes
South Thanet
Bermondsey and Old Southwark
Croydon Central
Kingston and Surbution
Sutton and Cheam
Twickenham
Harrow East
Hendon
Ilford North
Colchester
Thurrock
Ipswich
Waveney
Cambridge
Bedford
Corby
Lincoln
Broxtowe
Sherwood
Amber Valley
Derby North
Erewash
Cannock Chase
Birmingham Yardley
North Warwickshire
Nuneaton
Telford
Warrington South
Weaver Vale
Wirral West
Bolton West
Cheadle
Hazel Grove
Morecambe and Lunesdale
Carlisle
Stockton South
Bradford West
Keighley
Morley and Outwood
Coatbridge, Chryston and Belshill
Glasgow North East
Glasgow North West
East Lothian
Edinburgh North and Leith
Edinburgh South West
Edinburgh West
Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath
Aberdeen North
Aberdeen South
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
Kilmarnock and Loudon
Lanark and Hamilton East
Rutherglen and Hamilton West
Vale of Clwyd
Gower
Cardiff North

[Harry Hayfield]

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Emboldened equals correct

[Clyde1998]

Vote Shares (GB only)

Conservatives - 35% 37%
Labour - 33% 30%
Liberal Democrats - 10% 8%
UKIP - 10% 13%
Greens - 5% 4%
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 4% 6%

Seats

Conservatives - 291 331
Labour - 255 232
Liberal Democrats - 24 8
UKIP - 2 1
Greens - 1
SNP- 55 56
Plaid- 3
Galloway- 1 0
Other- 18 (Northern Ireland)

Likely Government - Hung Parliament; Conservative minority

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour - 23% (2 seats) 24% (1)
SNP - 48% (55 seats) 50% (56)
Liberal Democrats - 8% (1 seat)
Conservative - 14% (1 seat) 15% (1)
Greens - 4% (0 seats) 1%
UKIP - 2% (0 seats)
Others - 1% (0 seats) <0.5%

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon- SNP
Glasgow North- Labour SNP
Stirling- SNP

Berwick Upon Tweed- Conservative
Stockton South - Conservative
Redcar- Labour

Bury North- Labour Con
Southport- Lib Dem
Heywood and Middleton- Labour

Rotherham- Labour
Colne Valley- Conservative
Bradford West- Respect Lab
Sheffield Hallam- Labour Lib

Boston and Skegness- Conservative
Broxtowe- Labour Con
Loughborough- Conservative

Worcester- Conservative
Dudley South- Conservative
Warwickshire North- Labour Con

Ynys Mon- Labour
Ceredigion- Lib Dem
Vale of Glamorgan- Conservative

Camborne and Redruth- Conservative
Bristol West- Labour
Wells- Conservative

Brighton Pavillion- Green
Thanet South- Conservative
Rochester and Strood- Conservative

Kingston and Surbiton- Lib Dem Con
Battersea- Conservative
Enfield North- Labour

Norwich South- Labour
Clacton- UKIP
Thurrock- UKIP Con

Corrections in Bold.

Considering how long ago I predicted this, I think I did well. Especially my Scotland figures, excluding Greens.

I think everyone misjudged how far the Lib Dems would collapse in their Southern "strongholds" though.