The UK General Election Prediction Thread

[ChrisDR68]

I made this prediction on 16th January so I may as well stick to it

Vote Shares

Conservatives - 35.1%
Labour - 30.9%
Liberal Democrats - 13.5%
UKIP - 11.3%
Greens - 2.6%
Scottish Nationalist - 2.2%

Seats

Conservatives - 293
Labour - 278
Liberal Democrats - 31
UKIP - 2
Greens - 1
SNP - 23
Plaid- 3
Galloway- 1
Other- 18

Likely Government -
Con/Lib/DUP coalition

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour 31.3%
SNP 37.6%
Liberal Democrats 7.2%
Conservative 15.3%
Greens 2.1%
UKIP 5.6%
Others 0.9%

I've no idea about individual constituency predictions. Having watched every general election since 1979 there is always a lot of unpredictability in a high number of seats... to say the least

[ChrisDR68]

Interesting article on the Daily Politics today basing a prediction on how much money is being bet on the results in individual Parliamentary seats.

It's currently coming up with these figures:

Conservatives 276
Labour 275
Scottish National Party 41
Liberal Democrats 31
UK Independence Party 3
Greens 1
Others 23


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31853672 

[ChrisDR68]

I'm a firm admirer of Callaghan but government by trade union consent (which in effect his government from 1976-79 was) was always a very dodgy proposition.