The UK General Election Prediction Thread

[The Other Castro]

Partial Prediction:

Vote Shares

Conservatives - 33.2%
Labour - 33.4%
Liberal Democrats - 7.8%
UKIP - 13.9%
Greens - 6.4%
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 3.6%

Seats

Conservatives - 280
Labour - 274
Liberal Democrats - 24
UKIP - 5
Greens - 1
SNP - 44
Plaid - 3
Galloway- 1
Other - 18

Likely Government - Chaos (or Labour/SNP Minority Coalition)

[The Other Castro]

It's hard to see a full Labour coalition with just SNP, they'd probably have to bring in Lib Dems if they don't want to rule as a minority.

[The Other Castro]

Updated Prediction:

Seats

Conservatives - 275
Labour - 272
SNP - 50
Liberal Democrats - 28
UKIP - 3

Likely Government - Labour Minority

[The Other Castro]

I see the Lib Dem practical range as 20-30 seats, meaning Tories need at the very least around 281 seats, and probably more (assuming maximum LD seats). Anything under 280, everything's coming up Miliband.

[The Other Castro]

Clegg's loss would be nice, but Farage is too funny for me to want him gone.

[The Other Castro]

If you can't beat em, confuse em