The UK General Election Prediction Thread (user search)
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Author Topic: The UK General Election Prediction Thread  (Read 18424 times)
Clyde1998
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Posts: 2,936
United Kingdom


« on: March 08, 2015, 05:04:45 PM »

Vote Shares (GB only)

Conservatives - 35%
Labour - 33%
Liberal Democrats - 10%
UKIP - 10%
Greens - 5%
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 4%

Seats

Conservatives - 291
Labour - 255
Liberal Democrats - 24
UKIP - 2
Greens - 1
SNP- 55
Plaid- 3
Galloway- 1
Other- 18 (Northern Ireland)

Likely Government - Hung Parliament; Conservative minority

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour - 23% (2 seats)
SNP - 48% (55 seats)
Liberal Democrats - 8% (1 seat)
Conservative - 14% (1 seat)
Greens - 4% (0 seats)
UKIP - 2% (0 seats)
Others - 1% (0 seats)

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon- SNP
Glasgow North- Labour
Stirling- SNP

Berwick Upon Tweed- Conservative
Stockton South - Conservative
Redcar- Labour

Bury North- Labour
Southport- Lib Dem
Heywood and Middleton- Labour

Rotherham- Labour
Colne Valley- Conservative
Bradford West- Respect
Sheffield Hallam- Labour

Boston and Skegness- Conservative
Broxtowe- Labour
Loughborough- Conservative

Worcester- Conservative
Dudley South- Conservative
Warwickshire North- Labour

Ynys Mon- Labour
Ceredigion- Lib Dem
Vale of Glamorgan- Conservative

Camborne and Redruth- Conservative
Bristol West- Labour
Wells- Conservative

Brighton Pavillion- Green
Thanet South- Conservative
Rochester and Strood- Conservative

Kingston and Surbiton- Lib Dem
Battersea- Conservative
Enfield North- Labour

Norwich South- Labour
Clacton- UKIP
Thurrock- UKIP
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Clyde1998
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,936
United Kingdom


« Reply #1 on: March 11, 2015, 03:15:29 PM »

I can't see Labour going for full coalition with the SNP. Too messy.
I can't see Labour wanting to go into coalition with the SNP, and I don't see the SNP being stupid enough to enter a formal coalition - especially after what's happened to the Lib Dems.
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Clyde1998
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Posts: 2,936
United Kingdom


« Reply #2 on: March 12, 2015, 12:22:30 PM »

I can't see Labour going for full coalition with the SNP. Too messy.
I can't see Labour wanting to go into coalition with the SNP, and I don't see the SNP being stupid enough to enter a formal coalition - especially after what's happened to the Lib Dems.

OK, but my earlier question still remains, but in a somewhat different form: If the Conservatives end up at least a few seats ahead of Labour, yet Labour+SNP would form a majority, then does the SNP prop up a Labour minority government (if not with a formal "coalition"), even though Labour doesn't have the most seats?  Or would we more likely see a Conservative minority government in that case?  Is there any precedent for a minority government being run by a party that doesn't have a plurality of seats?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1892

The Liberal formed a minority government despite finishing second in 1892. This is because the Prime Minster isn't elected by the people, but by the elected representatives - so the Libs had the support from the Irish Nats in the Prime Minister vote.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1931

The best example of this is 1931 - Ramsay MacDonald was Prime Minister despite his party only winning 13 seats.
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Clyde1998
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Posts: 2,936
United Kingdom


« Reply #3 on: March 16, 2015, 12:04:25 PM »

Now, if Labour "needed" the SNP for the numbers, if they were clever, they could surely call their bluff and dare the SNP to vote them out, basically throwing the Tories a chance to form a new government.
That could be a brilliant move.  You could legitimately blame the SNP for a Tory entering 10 Downing Street.
But not everyone could be convinced.  Whether it is wise playing their bluff depends on what the cause of disagreement is.

Guys you're basically describing how Margaret Thatcher first became Prime Minister
I don't know if anyone's read James Callaghan's political memoir, but it contains a few pages about how the Government was brought down.

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So - Callaghan suggests that:
1. The Labour government, a minority government, was unpopular as a result of the winter of discontent.
2. Scotland voted for devolution, but a rule imposed by a Labour MP in alliance with the Tories and 33 Labour colleagues ensured that any Yes result wouldn't result in devolution.
3. He and Foot wanted to keep the devolution act alive - to attempt revive it after the election, given the Yes vote - but some Labour MPs vowed to block the plan, leading to the vote of no confidence.
4. He had resigned himself to an early election, even if he had won the vote of no confidence.
5. He blamed the election defeat on the Winter Of Discontent. He attributes the Conservatives’ success to that and to their promises of tax cuts.

* About the 40% Rule
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Clyde1998
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Posts: 2,936
United Kingdom


« Reply #4 on: May 03, 2015, 04:17:50 PM »

Jim Murphy creating new words in tonight's Scotland Debate: https://vine.co/v/eZz7BWWeKgY
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Clyde1998
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,936
United Kingdom


« Reply #5 on: May 03, 2015, 05:08:17 PM »

Jim Murphy creating new words in tonight's Scotland Debate: https://vine.co/v/eZz7BWWeKgY
I've just released that I posted this in the wrong thread... Sad
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Clyde1998
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,936
United Kingdom


« Reply #6 on: May 09, 2015, 04:28:09 PM »
« Edited: May 09, 2015, 04:31:17 PM by Clyde1998 »

Vote Shares (GB only)

Conservatives - 35% 37%
Labour - 33% 30%
Liberal Democrats - 10% 8%
UKIP - 10% 13%
Greens - 5% 4%
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 4% 6%

Seats

Conservatives - 291 331
Labour - 255 232
Liberal Democrats - 24 8
UKIP - 2 1
Greens - 1
SNP- 55 56
Plaid- 3
Galloway- 1 0
Other- 18 (Northern Ireland)

Likely Government - Hung Parliament; Conservative minority

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour - 23% (2 seats) 24% (1)
SNP - 48% (55 seats) 50% (56)
Liberal Democrats - 8% (1 seat)
Conservative - 14% (1 seat) 15% (1)
Greens - 4% (0 seats) 1%
UKIP - 2% (0 seats)
Others - 1% (0 seats) <0.5%

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon- SNP
Glasgow North- Labour SNP
Stirling- SNP

Berwick Upon Tweed- Conservative
Stockton South - Conservative
Redcar- Labour

Bury North- Labour Con
Southport- Lib Dem
Heywood and Middleton- Labour

Rotherham- Labour
Colne Valley- Conservative
Bradford West- Respect Lab
Sheffield Hallam- Labour Lib

Boston and Skegness- Conservative
Broxtowe- Labour Con
Loughborough- Conservative

Worcester- Conservative
Dudley South- Conservative
Warwickshire North- Labour Con

Ynys Mon- Labour
Ceredigion- Lib Dem
Vale of Glamorgan- Conservative

Camborne and Redruth- Conservative
Bristol West- Labour
Wells- Conservative

Brighton Pavillion- Green
Thanet South- Conservative
Rochester and Strood- Conservative

Kingston and Surbiton- Lib Dem Con
Battersea- Conservative
Enfield North- Labour

Norwich South- Labour
Clacton- UKIP
Thurrock- UKIP Con
Corrections in Bold.

Considering how long ago I predicted this, I think I did well. Especially my Scotland figures, excluding Greens.

I think everyone misjudged how far the Lib Dems would collapse in their Southern "strongholds" though.
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