The UK General Election Prediction Thread

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

If I were asked to pick one North West seat which could have a really surprising result, it would be Southport.  The Lib Dems still have the majority of local councillors, but they're winning on freak vote splits with shares in the low 30s.  The Southport Tories are too busy knocking seven bells out of each other to start fighting anybody else.  UKIP are doing well among the town's large retiree population.  Labour are nowhere.  A Lib Dem hold is still probably heavy favourite, but it's possible that the Kippers come up through the middle if they have a really good election.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Vote Shares (GB only)

Conservatives - 33%
Labour - 35%
Liberal Democrats - 7%
UKIP - 12%
Greens - 5%
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 4%

Seats

Conservatives - 263 incl. Bercow
Labour - 279
Liberal Democrats - 31
UKIP - 2
Greens - 1
SNP- 52
Plaid- 3
Galloway- 1
Other- 18 (NI)

Likely Government - Labour minority with SNP support

Scotland - Vote share and seats

(no idea about vote share, sorry)
Labour - 4
SNP - 52
Liberal Democrats - 1
Conservative - 2
Greens - 0
UKIP - 0
Others - 0

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon- SNP gain from LD
Glasgow North - SNP gain from Lab
Stirling - SNP gain from Lab

Berwick upon Tweed - LD hold
Stockton South - Lab gain from C
Redcar - Lab gain from LD

Bury North- Lab gain from C
Southport- LD hold
Heywood and Middleton- Lab hold

Rotherham- Lab hold
Colne Valley- Lab gain from C
Bradford West- Respect confirm by-election gain from Lab
Sheffield Hallam- LD hold, multiple recounts

Boston and Skegness- C hold
Broxtowe- Lab gain from C
Loughborough- C hold

Worcester- C hold
Dudley South - C hold
Warwickshire North- Lab gain from C

Ynys Mon- Lab hold
Ceredigion- LD hold
Vale of Glamorgan- C hold

Camborne and Redruth- C hold
Bristol West- LD hold
Wells- C gain from Lab

Brighton Pavillion- Grn hold
Thanet South- C hold
Rochester and Strood- C recover by-election loss

Kingston and Surbiton- LD hold
Battersea- C hold
Enfield North- Lab gain from C

Norwich South- Lab gain from LD
Clacton- UKIP confirm by-election gain from C
Thurrock- UKIP gain from C

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Anyone up for predicting every seat?

I've done such a prediction for English Elections, but whether Kris puts it up in time is another matter...