I can't see Labour going for full coalition with the SNP. Too messy.
OK, but my earlier question still remains, but in a somewhat different form: If the Conservatives end up at least a few seats ahead of Labour, yet Labour+SNP would form a majority, then does the SNP prop up a Labour minority government (if not with a formal "coalition"), even though Labour doesn't have the most seats? Or would we more likely see a Conservative minority government in that case? Is there any precedent for a minority government being run by a party that doesn't have a plurality of seats?
If the Tories are still the largest party on the Friday morning, Cameron has 2 weeks under the Fixed Terms Act to form a government. If he can't, Miliband gets asked, and so on until parliament's dissolved again.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1923 - Labour forms its first (minority) government, despite finishing far back in second place 258-191, with C&S from the Libs on 158. The Tories lost their maj and the Liberals couldn't back them for the obvious reasons of them being the two historic parties and because the issue of the day was protectionism and tariffs and it was something the two'd never even come close to agreeing on. Labour lasted all of 10 months and the Tories then won a landslide.
I don't think precedent will matter all that much though, especially not when the only examples of such a mixed-up party system was 80-90 years ago.
Another one to look at here would be 1910-1920. The Libs squeaked past the Tories in seat count and got in 1910 on the back of the Irish. I'm sure you know the rest...
I often get annoyed by the Scotland/Quebec comparison, but Harper lasted 5 years without the Bloc in a Westminster System with (on paper) 'fixed term elections'.
And again, the SNP obviously won't say they'd do a deal with the Tories before the election, but then again,
so did Nick Clegg last time. If I know anything about the SNP, it's that if they think a Tory gov will get them closer to independence than a Labour gov (and I think it will), then they'll "abstain" (prop the Tories up without actually having to prop them up).
