The UK General Election Prediction Thread

[Phony Moderate]

It's highly unlikely that Labour would be behind in seats if they were ahead in votes.

[Phony Moderate]

Vote Shares (GB only)

Conservatives - 35.4%
Labour - 34.1%
Liberal Democrats - 9.7%
UKIP - 10.8%
Greens - 4.4%
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 3.7%

Seats

Conservatives - 272
Labour - 288
Liberal Democrats - 27
UKIP - 7
Greens - 1
SNP- 51
Plaid- 3
Galloway- 1
Other- 0

Likely Government - Labour minority with SNP confidence and supply

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour - 27%/6 seats
SNP - 46%/ 51 seats
Liberal Democrats - 5%/1 seat
Conservative - 16%/ 1 seat
Greens - 2%
UKIP - 3%
Others - 1%

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon- SNP gain
Glasgow North- SNP gain
Stirling- SNP gain

Berwick Upon Tweed- Lib Dem hold on the basis that there was a big swing last time
Stockton South - Labour gain
Redcar- Labour gain

Bury North- Surprise Tory hold
Southport- Lib Dem hold
Heywood and Middleton- Labour hold

Rotherham- Labour hold
Colne Valley- Tory hold
Bradford West- Galloway hold
Sheffield Hallam- Narrow Lib Dem hold (as in under 1,500)

Boston and Skegness- UKIP gain
Broxtowe- Labour gain
Loughborough- Labour gain

Worcester- Tory hold
Dudley South- Labour gain
Warwickshire North- Labour gain

Ynys Mon- Labour hold
Ceredigion- Lib Dem hold
Vale of Glamorgan- Tory hold

Camborne and Redruth- Tory hold
Bristol West- Labour gain (narrowly)
Wells- Lib Dem hold

Brighton Pavillion- Green hold, majority almost identical to last time
Thanet South- UKIP gain
Rochester and Strood- UKIP win

Kingston and Surbiton- Lib Dem hold
Battersea- Tory hold
Enfield North- Labour gain

Norwich South- Labour gain
Clacton- UKIP win
Thurrock- UKIP gain
[/quote]

[Phony Moderate]

Anyone up for predicting every seat?

[Phony Moderate]

Vote Shares (GB only)

Conservatives - 34.5%
Labour - 33.3%
Liberal Democrats - 10.0%
UKIP - 11.2%
Greens - 4.1%
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 4.7%

Seats

Conservatives - 271
Labour - 271
Liberal Democrats - 29
UKIP - 4
Greens - 1
SNP- 51
Plaid- 3
Galloway- 1
Other- 19 (including the Speaker)

Likely Government - Labour minority

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour - 27%/6 seats
SNP - 46%/ 51 seats
Liberal Democrats - 5%/1 seat
Conservative - 16%/ 1 seat
Greens - 2%
UKIP - 3%
Others - 1%

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon- SNP gain
Glasgow North- SNP gain
Stirling- SNP gain

Berwick Upon Tweed- Lib Dem hold on the basis that there was a big swing last time
Stockton South - Labour gain
Redcar- Labour gain

Bury North- Surprise Tory hold
Southport- Lib Dem hold
Heywood and Middleton- Labour hold

Rotherham- Labour hold
Colne Valley- Tory hold
Bradford West- Galloway hold
Sheffield Hallam- Narrow Lib Dem hold (as in under 1,500)

Boston and Skegness- UKIP gain
Broxtowe- Labour gain
Loughborough- Labour gain

Worcester- Tory hold
Dudley South- Labour gain
Warwickshire North- Labour gain

Ynys Mon- Labour hold
Ceredigion- Lib Dem hold
Vale of Glamorgan- Tory hold

Camborne and Redruth- Tory hold
Bristol West- Labour gain (narrowly)
Wells- Lib Dem hold

Brighton Pavillion- Green hold, majority almost identical to last time
Thanet South- UKIP gain
Rochester and Strood- Con regain

Kingston and Surbiton- Lib Dem hold
Battersea- Tory hold
Enfield North- Labour gain

Norwich South- Labour gain
Clacton- UKIP win
Thurrock- UKIP gain