The UK General Election Prediction Thread

[User157088589849]

Labour target seats.

East Midlands - 8 marginal seats.
Sherwood, Broxtowe, Amber Valley, Lincoln, Erewash, Northampton North, Loughborough, High Peak

Soft Labour targets - Northampton South, Leicestershire NW, Kettering.

Most of these will be in before 3-4am on election night even with re-counts. They are very fast counters. It would be a disaster for labour if they don't win at least 6 - Sherwood, Broxtowe, Amber Valley, Lincoln, Erewash and Northampton North look Labour gains. They all have well-funded candidates, have resources across the wards and it's difficult to see how the tories can hold on with so much vote to squeeze from the lib dem/bnp in many of these races.

Loughborough is an interesting one. Nicky Morgan, the educational secretary is heavily financed by the hedge fund donars. But it's not going to be comfortable for her as many of the leicester crowd could be pushed into the villages 10miles up the road to put boots on the ground. This could be in the 100s. It will be a televised count so is vital for morale that labour take her out. Visual humiliation is very powerful and difficult for a government to remain in control of the narrative.

High Peak is another unknown. Recent polls have it a deadheat. I suspect the lib dem vote is being seriously squeezed and the campaign to oust clegg nearby could be having an effect. This one is another tough one to call and one you wouldn't want to bet on.

Kettering, Leics NW and Northampton South should all be Tory holds but the volatility in swings in these races in both the council and european elections make these races where from nowhere it could be entering 2-3k majorities which makes it very vulnerable if the tories hold on for the second election in 2015 or in 2020 if they can survive that long in minority.

[User157088589849]

Labour Targets - Northwest (Tory bloodbath)

Labour Targets 8 - Lancaster/Fleetwood, Carlisle, Weaver Vale, Bury North, Warrington South, Morecambe/Lunesdale, Burnley (lib dem), Manchester Withinton (lib dem)

Barring some freak event, I can't see anything stopping these seats falling into Labours hands. Tories won these races narrowly in 2010 with a depressed labour vote. Tories won England by 10pts, since then labour have gone up, tories down, lib dems collapsed. All the above are certain labour gains.

Labour marginal targets - Chester, Blackpool N & Cleverleys, Wirral West, South Ribble, Pendle, Crewe/Nantwich, Rossendale/Darwen

Could be very possible that Tories lose every gain from 2010.

Labour could gain 15 seats from the tories (13) and the lib dems (2)

If pushed I would say labour gain at least 10 from the tories 2 lib dems