Did Obama receive >25% of white vote in any Mississippi or Alabama counties? (user search)
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  Did Obama receive >25% of white vote in any Mississippi or Alabama counties? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Did Obama receive >25% of white vote in any Mississippi or Alabama counties?  (Read 4862 times)
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Harry
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Posts: 35,424
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« on: March 28, 2015, 11:16:29 PM »
« edited: March 28, 2015, 11:23:58 PM by Harry »

This was the (very rough) calculation I did a while ago. Looks pretty similar to Griffin's



These were the top 6:
34%   Jefferson
25%   Marshall
21%   Benton
22%   Oktibbeha
22%   Lafayette
22%   Noxubee

I just backed into these numbers from the black% in the county, the county result, and the overall racial turnout rates in each state. The formula isn't perfect because black and white turnout would vary by county. Also, I used a constant 96-4 for the black vote in every county and 71-27-2 for the Hispanic vote in every county, and then backed into these white vote numbers.

This formula did lead to Obama getting a negative % of the white vote in a few counties, but I think it's probably pretty close.
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7,052,770
Harry
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 35,424
Ukraine


« Reply #1 on: March 29, 2015, 11:21:26 AM »

I ran into the negative numbers in several counties as well. Half of them were prison counties, so adjusting for that variable took care of most of the anomalies; in the rest, I simply had to make an educated guess. I'm intrigued at how you came to <10% in Hinds County, though...?

My spreadsheet says 72-27 Obama and 70-28 black.

Although now that I look at Wikipedia, that racial breakdown of the county may be wrong.
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