Did Obama receive >25% of white vote in any Mississippi or Alabama counties? (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 27, 2024, 11:17:21 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderators: muon2, 100% pro-life no matter what)
  Did Obama receive >25% of white vote in any Mississippi or Alabama counties? (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Did Obama receive >25% of white vote in any Mississippi or Alabama counties?  (Read 4864 times)
jimrtex
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,828
Marshall Islands


« on: March 17, 2015, 07:56:26 AM »

Yeah, you know...the more I look at the 2008 numbers and the likely racial composition of AL in both 2008 and 2012 (based on Census figures and the average discrepancy between Census and turnout in Southern states that do keep racial turnout data), I really think there was some sort of reverse Bradley effect at play in 2008 exit polling. It just doesn't add up, the whole "Obama got 10% of the white vote in 2008".

Even the active voter rolls in 2012 in AL were >70% white; it's virtually guaranteed that the AL electorate would have been even whiter than the active rolls. Black turnout was likely 90% of the roll number, which would put it somewhere between 23-24%; non-white, non-black turnout was likely around 3%.

73.5% white
23.5% black @ 95% D = 22.3
3.0% other @ 60% D = 1.8
Total = 24.1

Obama's 2012 share = 38.4
38.4 - 24.1 = 14.3
14.3/73.5 = 19.4%

You can tweak this all around the margins, but it's certainly not going to cut Obama's share of the white vote nearly in half. In some cases, it'd actually increase it. I think I'll stick with the original version of my above map. Interesting.
It is likely that black turnout was higher in Alabama than white turnout.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.021 seconds with 12 queries.