Re-balanced presidential elections
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April 26, 2024, 12:05:42 AM
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  Re-balanced presidential elections
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Author Topic: Re-balanced presidential elections  (Read 1769 times)
True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« on: April 26, 2005, 02:21:07 PM »

I'm going to use this thread to post a set of adjusted two party maps.  The maps will be adjusted so the Democrats and Republicans tie in the PV, with adjustments made by uniformly decreasing the votes of the winning party by the same percentage in all States, and ignoring all third party votes.  I also will be adjusting the color scale so that:
>30% = <55%
>40% = <60%
>50% = <65%
>60% = <70%
>70% = <75%
>80% = <80%
>90% = >80%

Elections with significant third party activity will be omitted for now

I will be starting with the election of 1896 for the simple reason that 1892 is the earliest one for which Dave has for the EV calculator, but 1892 is distorted by presence of the Populist Patry.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #1 on: April 26, 2005, 03:27:46 PM »

Here’s the first of these, for 1896.

If the PV splits evenly in 1896, then Bryan gains California, Indiana, Kentucky, and Oregon.  However. McKinley still wins 232 to 215 over Bryan.

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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
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« Reply #2 on: April 26, 2005, 04:28:20 PM »

You might need a over 100% color for Davis 1924 and Smith 1928 in SC, and Mondale 1984 in DC.
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A18
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« Reply #3 on: April 26, 2005, 04:43:42 PM »

Hard to go over 100%, so I'd imagine that's an exception to the rule.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #4 on: April 27, 2005, 02:25:36 AM »

Hard to go over 100%, so I'd imagine that's an exception to the rule.
If the EV winning candidate's vote is lowered uniformly in all the states...given the Rep's state in SC & MS during the first half of the century...that might push their "vote" there into negative. That's what BR meant.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #5 on: April 27, 2005, 03:15:30 AM »

I'm not using a uniform swing.
In 1896 for example, Bryan got 91.5% of the vote that McKinley got, so what I did was compre for each State 91.5% of the vote that McKinley got in that State to 100% of the vote that Bryan got so that their total nationwide vote totals are equal.
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jfern
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« Reply #6 on: April 27, 2005, 03:16:39 AM »

I'm not using a uniform swing.
In 1896 for example, Bryan got 91.5% of the vote that McKinley got, so what I did was compre for each State 91.5% of the vote that McKinley got in that State to 100% of the vote that Bryan got so that their total nationwide vote totals are equal.

Oh, ok
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #7 on: April 27, 2005, 12:51:14 PM »



Shows show significant differences from 1896.  With te decline of the Populist impulse, the western states have all become more Republican.  The Mid-Atlantic states have headed Democratic.  Again the heavy concentration of Democratic strength in the South serves to give th Republicans the edge if teh race had been close with a 235 to 212 margin in the EV's
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