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Author Topic: Fmr. Rep. Lampson will run against DeLay  (Read 3508 times)
Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« on: April 26, 2005, 03:05:37 pm »
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Form today's Hotline:

   Ex-Rep. Nick Lampson (D-TX) "has decided to challenge" DeLay in '06 and filed papers with FEC 4/25. '04 Dem nominee Richard Morrison "removed himself from the race," also on 4/25, "citing family considerations in an e-mail to past supporters." Lampson "is clearly viewed as a strong contender" by nat'l Dems. DCCC spokesperson Sarah Feinberg called him a "fantastic candidate who is hitting the ground running." Lampson "will hold his first fundraiser" in DC on 4/28 (Cillizza, Roll Call, 4/26).

Apparently, Lampson used to represent 30% of DeLay's district.  DeLay will be the favorite, but at least it will be a high-profile race.
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nini2287
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« Reply #1 on: April 26, 2005, 03:24:39 pm »
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Wow, this could be a very intersting race.  I remember seeing a poll a few weeks saying that 38% of voters in DeLay's district want to him see re-elected, with 45% opposed.  With a good, well-known candidate like Lampson, it could happen.
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nini2287
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« Reply #2 on: April 26, 2005, 03:25:52 pm »
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Also, was Morrison a good candidate?  How much of the scare he gave DeLay was due to anti-DeLay sentiment and how much because of pro-Morrison votes?
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The Roose is Loose
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« Reply #3 on: April 26, 2005, 03:26:36 pm »
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Tom Delay is eather going to resigin or lose (he's dead)
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nini2287
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« Reply #4 on: April 26, 2005, 03:27:45 pm »
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Tom Delay is eather going to resigin or lose (he's dead)

I sure hope so...if he is re-elected in 2006, it will be crushing for the Democrats.
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« Reply #5 on: April 26, 2005, 03:31:10 pm »
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His resignation is far more likey given how right wing his district is. (it may be a bit, early06).  Lampson -Delay leans Delay, but there is hope!
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #6 on: April 26, 2005, 04:00:38 pm »
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To answer a number of questions here (and to not get Democrat hopes up to highly), let me first start off by saying that I think Lampson is the best challenger that the Democrats could get for this seat.

That being said, the road ahead for him is extremely hard.  The first key thing is to get the money angle down, so he is at least competitive in that regards.  That I don't think is that big of a problem.

Also, he does not presently live in the District and even though you don't have to live in a CD to run, I will imagine that he'll move.  Of course, he's liable to be labeled a carpetbagger, that's pretty expected.

Secondly, the 30% of DeLay's district is his old CD is misleading.  Here is DeLay's CD:



The part of DeLay's district that was Lampson's old CD is the part lying in Galveston County.  Unfortunately, that area, though growing at a fairly fast rate is still fairly rural.  It's 30% of the land, but I'm nearly 100% sure it's nowhere near 30% of the population.

Secondly, DeLay lost that area in 2004 anyway by decent margin as jimrtex will happily point out, so the only thing Lampson could possibly do is increase the percentages there, maybe.

DeLay's strengths will be in the large Fort Bend County part other than Missouri City, and the hugely Republican suburbs around Pearland and Friendswood in Brazoria County.

Secondly, for nini2287, Morrison was an total anti-DeLay candidate, unknown elsewhere.  The 41% he got is entirely due to being anti-DeLay.  He's not running this time because he doesn't have any money to actually run with.

Simply put, I don't see how Lampson can get more than 45% in this CD, period.  I have been proven wrong before, however.
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nini2287
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« Reply #7 on: April 26, 2005, 04:06:02 pm »
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Thanks for the analysis, Sam.  I'm looking forward to watching this one play out.
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« Reply #8 on: April 26, 2005, 04:12:02 pm »
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Sam Spade, you made some very good points, well done.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #9 on: April 26, 2005, 08:49:34 pm »
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To answer a number of questions here (and to not get Democrat hopes up to highly), let me first start off by saying that I think Lampson is the best challenger that the Democrats could get for this seat.

That being said, the road ahead for him is extremely hard.  The first key thing is to get the money angle down, so he is at least competitive in that regards.  That I don't think is that big of a problem.

Also, he does not presently live in the District and even though you don't have to live in a CD to run, I will imagine that he'll move.  Of course, he's liable to be labeled a carpetbagger, that's pretty expected.

Secondly, the 30% of DeLay's district is his old CD is misleading.  Here is DeLay's CD:



The part of DeLay's district that was Lampson's old CD is the part lying in Galveston County.  Unfortunately, that area, though growing at a fairly fast rate is still fairly rural.  It's 30% of the land, but I'm nearly 100% sure it's nowhere near 30% of the population.

Secondly, DeLay lost that area in 2004 anyway by decent margin as jimrtex will happily point out, so the only thing Lampson could possibly do is increase the percentages there, maybe.

DeLay's strengths will be in the large Fort Bend County part other than Missouri City, and the hugely Republican suburbs around Pearland and Friendswood in Brazoria County.

Secondly, for nini2287, Morrison was an total anti-DeLay candidate, unknown elsewhere.  The 41% he got is entirely due to being anti-DeLay.  He's not running this time because he doesn't have any money to actually run with.

Simply put, I don't see how Lampson can get more than 45% in this CD, period.  I have been proven wrong before, however.
Here is a map of Lampson's old (1992) district.

And this is a map of the district he lost in 1994.


His 2002 district was split (by votes cast) in the 2004 districts.
   67,000 in District 2 (where he lost in 2004).
   54,000 in District 14 (the rest of Galveston County and Chambers County)
   25,000 in District 24 (DeLay's district)
   1,000 in District 29.

So that means about 17% of the votes cast in his old 2002 district is now in DeLay's.  Moreover, he only had 50% of the vote in that district, vs 60% districtwide.

Besides the area in Galveston County, he represented a small portion of far southeast Harris County that is now in DeLay's district (the 17% is the total for both areas).   Jack Brooks used to represent Lampson's district, and the boundaries were drawn in Martin Frost's Democrat Gerrymander so that he could represent NASA (Johnson Space Center) without representing too many suburban Houstonians.  The 2001 federal court plan straightened out the boundaries a bit in this area.

The whole key for Lampson in the past was to roll up big margins in Jefferson County (Beaumont and Port Arthur) and break even in the Houston area.  When he was elected in the special election runoff in 1996, it was in large part to differential turnout from Jefferson County.  After the 1992 Frost Democrat Gerrymander was ruled illegal, the results from the 1996 primaries run on the illegal boundaries were thrown out.   A Louisiana-style primary was held on the general election boundaries on the general election day.  The runoff was held on a Saturday in December.  Since many of the congressional races had been decided in the general election (as well as all the presidential and other elections) many voters were unaware that an election was being held.  This was especially true in the Houston area which has about 9 CDs.  The runoff was off the radar in the local press.  But it was big news in the Beaumont area which saw it as an opportunity to have its own congressman again.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #10 on: April 26, 2005, 09:41:51 pm »
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Thanks, jimrtex, for the excellent, more in-depth explanation than I could provide.  Smiley
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