MD-Sen: Edwards vs. Van Hollen

[Maxwell]

And... Anthony Brown is going to run for Donna Edwards' district

It's a district he can't possibly blow.

[Zioneer]

And... Anthony Brown is going to run for Donna Edwards' district

It's a district he can't possibly blow.

He can certainly try.

[Vega]

And... Anthony Brown is going to run for Donna Edwards' district

It's a district he can't possibly blow.

He can certainly try.

Nah, he'll win.

[IceSpear]

It's D+23, so Brown could probably personally tell every voter in the district to go F themselves and still win. His real competition will be in the primary.

[hopper]

Cummings would be 66 on inauguration day 2017.

Not that much older than the other two

Well Edwards and Van Hollen are both 56. They both could pass for mid 40's age range though. I did think Van Hollen was a Gen Xer but he is a late Baby Boomer.

[freepcrusher]

definitely supporting van hollen. Edwards is too much a SJW for my tastes.

[warandwar]

definitely supporting van hollen. Edwards is too much a SJW for my tastes.

In what way do you see them differing on social issues?
Does Edwards' work on behalf of domestic violence victims really make her unappealing?
I don't see how being responsible for VAWA's passage is a negative (unless you're a fan of violence against women).

[freepcrusher]

definitely supporting van hollen. Edwards is too much a SJW for my tastes.

In what way do you see them differing on social issues?
Does Edwards' work on behalf of domestic violence victims really make her unappealing?
I don't see how being responsible for VAWA's passage is a negative (unless you're a fan of violence against women).

well its other things too. Her views on Israel are bordering on NOI.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

On the number of female senators in the senate, I definately see Barbara Ann Mikulski being replaced by a female senator in ILL and Kamela Harris replacing Boxer in Ca, which will equalize the number of female senators as we have now, but Van Hollrn will definately win in MD.

[badgate]

definitely supporting van hollen. Edwards is too much a SJW for my tastes.

In what way do you see them differing on social issues?

I think his objection is that she is more likely to be vocal about such important issues, and he gets uncomfortable when people are vocal about such things.

[Miles]

File thus under the "least surprising endorsements" category: EMILY's List for Edwards.

[warandwar]

File thus under the "least surprising endorsements" category: EMILY's List for Edwards.

What this means is that $RB is not running (EMILY's List would have preferred her to Edwards, for sure, so she must have told them that she's not running).

[Frodo]

What does SJW and NOI stand for? 

[publicunofficial]

What does SJW and NOI stand for? 

SJW = Social Justice Warrior, term used by white nerds to describe women, minorities, & gays who talk about the problems of being women, minorities, & gays.

NOI = Nation of Islam.

In short, freepcrusher is a possibly racist idiot.

[free my dawg]

What does SJW and NOI stand for? 

SJW = Social Justice Warrior, term used by white nerds to describe women, minorities, & gays who talk about the problems of being women, minorities, & gays.

NOI = Nation of Islam.

In short, freepcrusher is a possibly racist idiot.

freepcrusher's a confirmed redpiller, so yeah. Most likely.

[Maxwell]

What does SJW and NOI stand for? 

SJW = Social Justice Warrior, term used by white nerds to describe women, minorities, & gays who talk about the problems of being women, minorities, & gays.

NOI = Nation of Islam.

In short, freepcrusher is a possibly racist idiot.

That's not an exact definition of SJW. Untalented mouthpiece Russell Brand is also a SJW.

[Nyvin]

I'm definitely for Donna Edwards,  it would be so great if she joins Russ Feingold and Joe Sestak in winning the Senate seats and there are at least three great progressives added to the bench (though Barbara Mikulski is good senator too).

They really need to find a good candidate for the NH Senate race,  I don't want Hassan to leave the governor seat for it,  I don't think Carol-Shea Porter is good enough either.   

[Emperor Charles V]

Van Hollen will get all the Democratic establishment money, a clear advantage over Edwards.

Furthermore, as historical precedent shows when the Democratic Primary field is split between a white and a black candidate, the vote is likely to break over racial lines. I can cite two historical examples of this phenomenon. First is the First House District of Indiana. When current congressman Pete Visclosky, was first elected to office in 1984 he unseated incumbent congresswoman Katie Hall, a black woman in the Democratic Primary. Hall ran twice more in the Primary but lost the Visclosky both times. What is interesting is that all three times Hall and Visclosky faced each other in the primary, Hall cracked only 30-40%, which happens to be roughly the percentage African Americans compose the 1st District's Democratic Primary Electorate! A second example is the Democratic Primary of the 1992 Illinois Senate Race which saw the Election of Carol Mosely Braun, the first (and to this date only) black woman to serve in the US Senate. It is notable she upsetted a popular incumbent Alan Dixon, a white man, in the Primary. However, she won with only a bare plurality mostly because the race was not just between Mosely Braun and Dixon but it was a three way race with another white man in the mix. Since the two white candidates split the white vote, Moseley Braun was able to win the primary without having to worry about receiving white voters and later the General Election.

So with this being said, Edwards has no chance in hell unless another white candidate jumps in. Then the situation turns itself (a la Illinois in 1992) and she becomes the favorite. Now if Elijah Cummings declares, what will just happen is the black vote is split and Van Hollen wins in an even bigger landslide. He might as well call him Senator-elect and negotiate his committee assignments.

[IceSpear]

Van Hollen will get all the Democratic establishment money, a clear advantage over Edwards.

Furthermore, as historical precedent shows when the Democratic Primary field is split between a white and a black candidate, the vote is likely to break over racial lines. I can cite two historical examples of this phenomenon. First is the First House District of Indiana. When current congressman Pete Visclosky, was first elected to office in 1984 he unseated incumbent congresswoman Katie Hall, a black woman in the Democratic Primary. Hall ran twice more in the Primary but lost the Visclosky both times. What is interesting is that all three times Hall and Visclosky faced each other in the primary, Hall cracked only 30-40%, which happens to be roughly the percentage African Americans compose the 1st District's Democratic Primary Electorate! A second example is the Democratic Primary of the 1992 Illinois Senate Race which saw the Election of Carol Mosely Braun, the first (and to this date only) black woman to serve in the US Senate. It is notable she upsetted a popular incumbent Alan Dixon, a white man, in the Primary. However, she won with only a bare plurality mostly because the race was not just between Mosely Braun and Dixon but it was a three way race with another white man in the mix. Since the two white candidates split the white vote, Moseley Braun was able to win the primary without having to worry about receiving white voters and later the General Election.

So with this being said, Edwards has no chance in hell unless another white candidate jumps in. Then the situation turns itself (a la Illinois in 1992) and she becomes the favorite. Now if Elijah Cummings declares, what will just happen is the black vote is split and Van Hollen wins in an even bigger landslide. He might as well call him Senator-elect and negotiate his committee assignments.

Interesting examples, but I don't think they're necessarily applicable to this situation considering I can think of a pretty huge (and more recent) counterexample.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maryland_Democratic_primary,_2008

Obama won in a 61-36 landslide. He won African Americans 84-15 (about what was expected, not quite unanimous due to residual fondness for the Clintons among the black community), but Clinton only carried whites 52-42. Whites were 53% of the electorate, blacks 37%. Judging from this result, I see no reason to believe whites would strongly back Van Hollen from the get go simply because he's white.

I do agree with you though that if Cummings jumps in, Van Hollen can probably begin measuring the drapes. And if it's another white candidate, Edwards probably has the advantage. But I think a head to head between just those two would be quite competitive as well.