The Iowa Disaster - A Story of a Convention Fight

[Maxwell]

Ben Carson wins Iowa

Rarely has an upset been this shocking.

Months ago, the scene in Iowa changed dramatically. Scott Walker, leading heavily in the polls and in Iowa, made a remark that set off the change of events that lead to today's mess. In an interview with a local Republican group, he said that raped women should "suck it up" when it comes to having a baby. That wasn't the worst part - the worst was the abomination of the response. Walker's staffers wrote up a stiff apology, Walker backed away from it somewhat, then claimed people had taken the video "out of context", and by the end of it all, came walking away polling at a meager 4% in the nation and 7% in Iowa after leading in the state by ten point margins. This opened up the field to several potential challengers - Rand Paul had been beefing up his support with Former Ron Paul fans as well as people who had been skeptical of the former Congressman, Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee fought for the evangelical christians, with Santorum gaining quite a bit of momentum when Huckabee actively defended Walker on the debate stage and whose campaign was revealed to be a sham organization to sell his book, and Ted Cruz felt a gust of fundraising dollars his way from the wealthy donors that had backed Walker. But one candidate had remained at 12% the whole time and the divide had set up his narrow win perfectly - Dr. Benjamin Carson.

Ben Carson had been in the dumps nationally for some time for obvious reasons - a lack of organization, a lack of money, and a confused direction. He made gaffes fairly consistently, and was made fun of in the press as a gadfly candidate who wouldn't go very far. That punditry was proven wrong due to Carson's consistently strong support in Iowa, his narrow focus on the state, and his lack of political experience. Republican voters in the state began to tire of obviously political rhetoric, and preferred Carson's message.

If anything, this may be a sign of things to come for the Republican Party.

Iowa Caucus Result
Ben Carson - 14.6%
Ted Cruz - 14.5%
Rand Paul - 14.5%
Rick Santorum - 12.9%
Mike Huckabee - 9.8%
Scott Walker - 8.3%
Marco Rubio - 6.1%
Rick Perry - 5.6%
Jeb Bush - 5.3%
Donald Trump - 3.2%
John Kasich - 1.3%
Chris Christie - 0.9%
Lindsey Graham - 0.8%
Jim Gilmore - 0.0%
Others - 2.2%

[NHI]

Awesome start!

[Maxwell]

The New Hampshire Battle

Bush Central - Former Governor Jeb Bush bounced on competing in Iowa, so he has made it known that he will compete in New Hampshire. Though his fundraising has been impressive, he still regularly ties for first with Senator Rand Paul, whose fundraising, compared to the rest of the field, has been rather lackluster. Bush is pumping ads in the state, hoping for some sucess, but the team is privately worried a loss there could summarily sink his candidacy. After receiving expected endorsements from the withdrawing Chris Christie and Jim Gilmore, he hopes Christie's New England appeal can help him in a rise

The Pauls - Senator Rand Paul did well enough in Iowa to remain on peoples minds, but not well enough for a bump. The Pauls have been steadily chipping away in New Hampshire despite a low budget, thanks to the many appearances Paul has made in the state and his unorthodox stances on the issues. The Pauls hope a overly lopsided win for Hillary frees up independents and allow the Senator from Kentucky a win based on a more rounded electoral base.

Viva La Cuba and the Man from Ohio - The last two competitors in New Hampshire are Marco Rubio, Florida's Senator, and John Kasich, Ohio's Governor. Kasich has seen a steady rise in his poll numbers in the state after a near linear focus on New Hampshire. Rubio, facing criticism for his disappointing performance in Iowa, hopes to save face in New Hampshire, where he has been polling strongly but not too strongly. Unlike Kasich, Rubio has the donors side, and has notably won an endorsement from Mitt Romney. Kasich, however, like Paul, is hoping for center right independents to vote in droves in the Republican primary to win. Nevertheless, these two are considerably less likely to win the primary.

Criticism of the Iowa caucuses rose up after Carson's shocking win, with many in the GOP establishment calling for an end to the caucus all together, and to move the Iowa primary to latter in the season. The party leaders may finally get their wish - with Grassley retiring in 2022 and Ernst facing a huge fight in 2020, one can imagine the Iowa GOP is on its last legs for talent, and would need some help from party leaders in order to continue winning races. Party leaders have some major changes to make.

Mike Huckabee, in somewhat of a shock to his supporters, announced his withdraw from the Presidential campaign, not making any endorsement to any of the remaining candidates, but wished them luck in their journey. Huckabee had anticipated a win in Iowa, but after his lackluster performance in the state, polling in the next serious primary for him, South Carolina, was beginning to look incredibly weak, often polling in 4th place or below. Some of his support will likely land with a resurgent Rick Santorum, but a lot of it is actually making its way to Ted Cruz, who has done a great job of rounding up evangelical Christians.

[retromike22]

Awesome start!

[Maxwell]

Paul upsets the Bush Machine, Rubio unleashes the American Dream

A GOP race that expected to go down to the wire did not. Rand Paul narrowly but decisively defeated Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush in New Hampshire, thanks mostly to Hillary's incredibly lopsided win against Bernie Sanders (70-28). Splitting it down by demographics, 72% of the voters in the primary were Republicans, but a whopping 28% of voters in the Republican primary were Independents and Democrats. Republicans voted for Jeb Bush with 25%, followed by Rubio at 20%, with Rand Paul placing a distant third at 17%, but among Independents, Rand Paul led with a whopping 36%, with Marco Rubio and John Kasich tappering behind at 19% and 18% respectively. Jeb Bush particularly embarrassed himself with Independents, taking a meager 5% of their vote. This allowed for Rand Paul to sneak in the middle and win, but also allowed Marco Rubio to upset the elder Bush for a surprising second place.

Paul's strategy worked perfectly. His voters made their way to the polls, and his campaign continues. But it continues with a caveat: The GOP establishment is now more aware than ever that the Paul campaign is serious, and will do everything in its power to stop it. Whether that's with an insurgent Marco Rubio or with the monied Jeb Bush, they are figuring their way.

John Kasich, previously making a press conference that he would have to finish second or better to stay in the race, announced his withdraw from the Presidential contest, calling for a united party at the end of what has been a very bitter primary. Kasich didn't give an endorsement, though praised Rubio and Bush as patriots, and gave no answers as to his political future beyond this point. No doubt Kasich raised his profile in a positive way on the campaign trail, and is considered a likely VP candidate due to his skills on the trail and his governorship in a swing state.

Donald Trump also withdrew from the contest, as his joke candidacy was not going anywhere. Scott Walker, another joke candidate at this point, is trying to fight til the end with his own joke candidacy, claiming "It's not over just yet!" in an almost Fredo from The Godfather voice ("I GOT PASSED OVER"). Rick Perry, fumbling and stumbling around just about everywhere, is also staying, claiming to stay until the very end. His performance in Iowa exceeded most people's expectations, but that is another candidate whose shot in the Presidential contest seems very minimal.

Rand Paul - 22.4%
Marco Rubio - 19.7%
Jeb Bush - 19.5%
John Kasich - 12.2%
Ben Carson - 9.2%
Ted Cruz - 6.3%
Rick Santorum - 3.3%
Donald Trump - 2.7%
Scott Walker - 1.8%
Rick Perry - 0.5%
Lindsey Graham - 0.3%
Others - 2.1%

In the next post I will give you the New Hampshire numbers in more detail.

[Maxwell]

NEW HAMPSHIRE DISSECTED

New Hampshire among Independents and Democrats (28%)
Rand Paul - 36%
Marco Rubio - 19%
John Kasich - 18%
Ben Carson - 12%
Jeb Bush - 5%
Rick Santorum - 4%
Ted Cruz - 2%
Donald Trump - 2%
Scott Walker - 1%
Lindsey Graham - 1%
Rick Perry - 0%
Others - 0%

New Hampshire among Republicans (72%)
Jeb Bush - 25%
Marco Rubio - 20%
Rand Paul - 17%
John Kasich - 10%
Ben Carson - 8%
Ted Cruz - 8%
Rick Santorum - 3%
Donald Trump - 3%
Scott Walker - 2%
Rick Perry - 1%
Lindsey Graham - 0%
Others - 3%

[Maxwell]

Bush fires Campaign Team: "Let's get F****** SERIOUS"

Bush Central - Suffering a tremendous loss in New Hampshire, the Bush organization, still by far the largest of any campaign, is completely reshuffling the deck. Firing Danny Diaz, his campaign manager and most of the rest of his staff, Jeb has hired some of the top wheeler and dealers from his brothers old campaigns. For campaign manager, however, he went in a different direction. He hired Mark Johnson*, a noted dirt digger for the Bushes. Johnson's first day on the job... didn't go according to plan. His speech to the old and new staffers of the Bush campaign was leaked:

"Listen, I'm not Diaz. Thank god I'm not Diaz. Diaz was s***. And you are all s*** if you thought he was good. I'm not here to be your friend. I'm not here to be your dude. I'm here to be your boss. So nut up. Let's get f****** serious nutgobblers, if you don't do good next, I will make sure you fail at whatever you do next. This isn't gradeschool, it's the Presidency. Do your damn job."

Negative press and calls for Johnson to resign have come up, but Bush has refused to do so. It's getting harder and harder to imagine this campaign coming out of it, as Marco Rubio rose to 3rd place above Bush in the state.

Cruz Castle - Nobody could be happier about the campaign implosion of the Bushs than the leader in South Carolina, Senator Ted Cruz. Cruz has been a top tier candidate all along, moving on from his narrow loss in Iowa and is considered the strong frontrunner in South Carolina. The Bush collapse only helps Cruz. Some in the Cruz campaign worry that the Rubio people could unite the Bush people and jump to an upset, which is why Cruz's ad team has switched their focus from Amnesty Bush to Amnesty Rubio.

The Doctor's in the House - Meanwhile Ben Carson, who is second in the polls in South Carolina, has been quietly making moves in South Carolina. His win in Iowa and his surprising performance in New Hampshire has many worrying that Carson could actually win the primary and become a real contender. Carson's campaign, however, hasn't gotten any more organized, and many suspect it to collapse at some point. However, many suspected Carson would collapse before, and his supporters have only become more vigilant in promoting in his increasingly less jokey campaign.

Graham Crackers - Yeah, Lindsey Graham isn't seriously running for President. He's just trying to take attack Rand Paul. His showing in South Carolina is about as expected, and he likely drops out prior to it.

Viva La Cuba - Marco Rubio has been raising the stakes in South Carolina, but some are saying it's too little too late for him, as Rubio didn't expect to contest the state. His resources are among the best of the Republican candidates, but the question now is can he win? Mitt Romney endorsed his candidacy after a strong performance in New Hampshire, and with Bush's collapse, Rubio has been on the rise in recent national polls. Watch for him to continue to compete.

The Rest of the Gang - Rand Paul, the winner of New Hampshire, is a pariah in South Carolina, winning few endorsements in the state and getting actively booed at some events. Paul has decided to instead fight in the Nevada and Michigan primaries, both of which have polls showing the Senator of Kentucky in strong contention. After months without a billionaire sugar daddy, one finally signed on to the Paul campaign, more good news. But the Paul win didn't just come with nothing - negative ads faulting the Paul foreign policy and criminal justice reform have hurt his positives and national poll numbers, to the point where, only a week after having a national double digit lead, he falls behind to a two point lead over... Ben Carson (who is only one point ahead of Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio). Rick Perry, having no luck anywhere, uses whatever is left of his resources on Super Tuesday states, especially in Oklahoma, where he feels he has a chance of pulling an upset. Scott Walker may have just forgotten he was running a Presidential campaign, as he has hidden out in Wisconsin away from cameras. And finally, Rick Santorum is plotting a comeback on Super Tuesday, though is campaigning in Michigan where he polls at a meager 4%, in hopes of pulling a massive upset.

South Carolina Primary Poll (A Week Before)
Cruz - 20%
Carson - 16%
Rubio - 13%
Bush - 12%
Graham - 10%
Perry - 6%
Paul - 5%
Walker - 3%
Santorum - 2%

*Fictional character

[Maxwell]

The Demise of Bush... Or Maybe Not?

Reports of Jeb Bush's demise have proven to be... greatly exaggerated. The stunning upset for the Former Governor of Florida has re-invigorated the campaign. And nobody is more to thank than Bush Campaign Manager Mark Johnson. Johnson, an infamous Republican hatchet man, pushed the Bush campaign into high gear and traded fire with Ted Cruz, spreading rumors that Cruz was ineligible to be President. Bush received criticism from the press over running a birther campaign, but Bush claimed, in a backhanded way, that he wasn't directly behind these accusations. Bush certainly seems to be following in his fathers footsteps.

This is a major setback to the Cruz campaign, who had hoped for their breakout in South Carolina, and Rubio, who fell behind Home Stater Lindsey Graham. Cruz had fallen back when Bush approached the stage with a more aggressive manner at the Debates, and Rubio's organization proved faulty despite the large amount of money being funneled into it. But besides the obvious few to drop out (Graham and Walker), the field remains much the same - nobody's backing down, everyone's fighting for the top.

Maybe it was the second sign of a brokered convention.

South Carolina Primary Results
Jeb Bush - 23.9%
Ted Cruz - 20.6%
Ben Carson - 18.3%
Lindsey Graham - 11.5%
Marco Rubio - 10.2%
Rick Perry - 6.2%
Rand Paul - 4.3%
Rick Santorum - 2.1%
Scott Walker - 1.1%
Others - 1.8%

[/]

Great TL!

[Maxwell]

The Counting Days



National Polls
24% Paul
23% Bush
16% Rubio
13% Cruz
11% Carson
5% Santorum
2% Perry
3% Others
3% Undecided

As a dark and dreary (and big state heavy) Super Tuesday approaches, the primary gets more and more uncertain by the days. Despite a mostly Rand Paul sweep, he lost the one state most pundits expected him to win - Nevada, where he was narrowly upset by Marco Rubio. The most surprising state, however, was Michigan, where Rand Paul beat Jeb Bush, but Rick Santorum almost narrowly beat Jeb Bush for second place, winning 21% of the vote. The least surprising were Maine and Wyoming, both won by the burgeoning Paul machine that has the neocon wing of the party exploding.

The Pauls - As Super Tuesday approaches, the Paul machine places their bet on the biggest state in the union - California. This is the riskiest move the campaign has made yet - the increasingly negative Bush campaign has strong quarters set up in all three of Super Tuesday's big delegate states (Illinois, New York, and California), and plan to go to war with anyone who attempts to enter. Paul has some people in New York and others in Illinois, but California is the big get for the Pauls - if they can truly win there, they can win just about anywhere. Paul also has spread resources in rural caucus states that obviously favor the Pauls, but there is somewhere an insurgent Santorum can sneak by and win those states. Paul's negatives have seen a rise in the days coming off the heels of his Maine Victory after it was discovered that Paul had sat behind his father while his father spoke at a Neo-Confederate rally. Paul supporters are claiming this is character assassination, but this has done serious damage to Paul's ability to convey himself as a serious candidate.

Bush Central - Despite a lack of wins leading up to Super Tuesday, Mark Johnson has pushed the Bush camp to shape up and fly right for the most part (though nobody can say that Michigan wasn't disappointing). 2nd in the polls and leading most Super Tuesday states, Bush is planning to spend, spend, spend, and wipe out the less wealthy opponents. Focusing on an insurgent Paul in the West, and Ted Cruz in the South, Johnson's ad campaign "is going to smoke out the competition". The Bush campaign received a boon of a good news when it was announced by Marco Rubio that he was taking his resources out of the South, thus ceding his support to Bush, the most similar other candidate.

Viva La Cuba - Marco Rubio is stuck in the worst position of the major candidates on Super Tuesday. Unlike other candidates, he has no area where he does best in. Marco Rubio polls around 15-16% in each state, though he does poll a tad better with Northern moderates or areas where GOP tends to skew younger. Nevertheless, Rubio has already ceded some ground, which spells trouble for him. However, the one good bit of news is that the only state that does have a for sure answer, Utah, is Rubio's, thanks to Mitt Romney's endorsement and mobilization of mormons. Rubio hopes to do well enough in states where delegates break down, and an upset or two in the Big Three.

Rubio's main issue is every time he gets a chance to unite the field, he fumbles the ball with a mediocre-to-weak debate performance. Rubio, despite an impressive team that have kept him more viable than he probably should be at this point, has failed to impress in person.

Cruz Castle - Cruz is aware his appeal is narrow. He got 4th through 6th place in every single primary after South Carolina. He knows where he goes: The South. Despite a shocking upset defeat in South Carolina, Cruz still has his backers, still performs well in debates, has made few gaffes, and holds double digit leads in states like Alabama, Tennessee, and Oklahoma. The Cruz campaign hopes the Paul's and the Bush's battle it out and cause a brokered convention, in which Cruz can slyly suggest himself as a compromise candidate. Probably won't work, but lordy let him try.

Mr. Sweatervest - After a surprise performance in Michigan, Santroum finds himself running around states attempting to win beyond hope. Santorum polls in double digits in many states, including Minnesota, which is known in the press as his most likely shot at a primary win. Santorum has little money, though an unbeknownst billionaire has now taken an interest in the dark horse candidate, and few think he can expand beyond a small base, but that may be enough in a field divided by several strong candidates.

The Doctor's In The House - Ben Carson's shocking upset in Iowa is, day by day, proving to be a fluke. Ben Carson has a consistent support of 10% in every state, sometimes 15%, sometimes 7%, but there has never been a candidate this remarkably consistent. But either way, this percentage is no longer good enough for the candidate, and supports of Carson are getting more and more worried that he simply can't cut it. This is mostly because his organization is falling apart, his debate performances are consistently the worst (even Rick Perry corrected him on some issues), and his stump speech has been consistently been laughed at. He polls respectively strong in Oklahoma and Minnesota, but not strong enough to move out of 3rd place. Carson might have to prepare a concession speech already.

Just Plain Perry - Wait, why is he still here? Is this a typo?

[Maxwell]

Great TL!

Thanks, I need to read yours, because it seems like your timeline is going into far more depth than mine is.

And who do people think is going to end up winning this battle?

[Senator Cris]

Great TL.

I think that Paul will win in a brokered convention.

[Maxwell]

Super Tuesday Results



Jeb Bush - Arizona, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York
Rand Paul - Alaska, California, Colorado, Montana, North Dakota
Ted Cruz - Alabama, Missouri, Tennessee
Rick Santorum - Arkansas, Minnesota, Oklahoma
Marco Rubio - Georgia, Utah
Ben Carson - None
Rick Perry - None

Super Tuesday went off, and there were quite a few headlines, including mentions of high turnout on the Republican side, record lows on the Democratic side (Hillary winning most of the primaries with 80%+), and cases of a potential recount in Oklahoma (where Santorum holds a narrow 400 vote lead over Cruz):

The Santorum Surprise

After weeks of calls to withdraw from the race, Rick Santorum once again upsets in several states, mostly at the cost of Ted Cruz (with the exception of Minnesota, which was a double digit defeat for Paul). Santorum's rise makes it clear that GOP Christians still demand a socially conservative candidate, and Santorum filled the role perfectly. In his victory speech, Santorum looked ecstatic and has shot up to third in the polls, and cameras back on the Former Senator of Pennsylvania.

Paul and Bush stalemate

Former Governor Jeb Bush and Senator Rand Paul are battling it out for the nomination, is what this day makes clear. Paul won California, winning his big gamble in a narrow defeat for Bush, but Bush won most of the other big delegate states. Paul trails by around 50 in the delegate, but Bush needs to be much farther ahead in order to win the nomination. Bush showed strength across the country, while Paul had concentrated strength in the West and North, as evidenced by his weak performance in the South and his mediocre efforts in the Midwest. Both are trying to claim the mantle of electability, and both stand ahead of the competition by a solid margin in the delegate count, making it difficult for the other three to catch up.

Cruz a Disappointment

Cruz got upset in quite a few states tonight, both by Santorum and Rubio. This was supposed to be Cruz's night, and now he walks away weaker than he came in. Nevertheless, Cruz won three states, has a good base of delegates, and has walked away with lessons. Cruz still has more money than Santorum, and most pundits, even with Santorum's strong rise, expect Cruz to pass him again.

Rubio upset in Georgia, still the biggest underdog

Rubio was always expected to win in Utah, but he picked up Georgia fairly unexpectedly (thanks to an unexpectedly strong performance from Santorum, taking away from Ted Cruz). Nevertheless, Rubio is way down in delegates, and time is running out for the Florida Senator. Many big money donors are wondering if Rubio still has what it takes to win. Rubio's post-Super Tuesday speech was firey, but got little attention in light of the Paul v. Bush battle and Santorum loss, and one more major announcement...

Carson withdraws

After failing to even get close to winning a state in Super Tuesday, Dr. Ben Carson finally withdraws from the Presidential contest. Carson failed to ever expand beyond the 10-15% that he usually got, mainly because of a weak campaign and being a weak candidate. Carson's ending speech was as odd as his beginning, with his speech cluelessly wandering through his amazing life before conceding the race at the 53 minute point and not endorsing any of the other candidates. Rick Perry also withdraws, and endorses Rand Paul (!!!) over the other candidates, which was fairly unexpected but really doesn't matter.