What is Hillary's floor in the popular vote?
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  What is Hillary's floor in the popular vote?
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Poll
Question: Well?
#1
Below 45%
 
#2
45%
 
#3
46%
 
#4
47%
 
#5
48%
 
#6
49%
 
#7
50%
 
#8
Above 50%
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 68

Author Topic: What is Hillary's floor in the popular vote?  (Read 1054 times)
Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« on: March 11, 2015, 08:54:47 PM »

Barring some extreme circumstance that triggers a landslide in either direction, what is Hillary's floor in the popular vote?
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1 on: March 11, 2015, 09:04:16 PM »

47%.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #2 on: March 11, 2015, 09:14:11 PM »

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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #3 on: March 11, 2015, 09:15:06 PM »

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ShamDam
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« Reply #4 on: March 11, 2015, 09:50:40 PM »
« Edited: March 11, 2015, 09:52:40 PM by ChanDan »


I would argue that this is pretty close to the Republican floor as well. Maybe with a really bad (but still plausible) candidate, they could go as low as 45, but 47% I think is the competent-politician-under-normal-circumstances floor for either party.
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ucscgaldamez
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« Reply #5 on: March 11, 2015, 10:13:41 PM »

The election will be 50-49 either way.
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Brewer
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« Reply #6 on: March 11, 2015, 10:37:14 PM »

48%
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Vega
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« Reply #7 on: March 11, 2015, 10:37:57 PM »

I could definitely see her falling down to 46%.
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Xing
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« Reply #8 on: March 12, 2015, 02:57:46 AM »

Probably about 47%, maybe 48% if the electorate is even more polarized in 2016.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #9 on: March 12, 2015, 08:07:11 PM »

If she has a dropoff from Obama's relection numbers similar to the dropoff from Reagan's reelect to Papa Bush or Bush's reelect to Obama, that leaves her at about 46 percent as a floor, assuming a two person race with a strong opponent and unfavorable news cycles, but not massive catastrophes.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #10 on: March 12, 2015, 08:41:32 PM »

I would say 46%. Any [major party] candidate in this period of polarization that doesn't get at least 45% of the vote should be ashamed of themselves.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #11 on: March 13, 2015, 10:11:24 AM »


Come on, you had to know this was going to be the answer when you started the thread Wink
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Suburbia
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« Reply #12 on: March 13, 2015, 10:19:26 AM »

47%
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #13 on: March 13, 2015, 10:41:43 AM »

48%.  She won't do worse than Gore. 
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