GOP-dominated suburbs
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« on: March 12, 2015, 07:52:13 PM »

I live in a Metroplex in which the suburbs are very Republican.  This ombinus thread is for discussing why particular suburban areas vote GOP - Milwaukee suburbs, DFW suburbs, you name it, and their common characteristics.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #1 on: March 13, 2015, 02:36:27 AM »

White flight away from urban areas; combined with the fact that Republicans core base is well-off, married, white, religious families, pretty much explains most conservative suburbs.

In the Seattle area, the conservative areas are traditionally Auburn, Bellevue, and Mercer Island. Lots of well-to-do tech workers who try to avoid the taxes of Seattle itself. However the conservative hold has been slipping there, at least federally, as social issues become more of a deal-breaker.
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« Reply #2 on: March 13, 2015, 03:24:59 AM »
« Edited: March 13, 2015, 03:27:39 AM by Snowguy716 »

The Twin Cities suburbs were traditionally settled by ruralites from the upper Midwest.  White flight never really occurred on a city wide basis in either twin city so it was usually people coming from the rural areas that had been crammed into tiny apartments or duplexed homes with individual rooms to rent.  This was due to the depression and war leading to under investment in new housing and demand was pent up as cities filled to the brim.  Those people, renting veterans, went first.

These suburbs were largely Republican.  Since the 90s, these burbs have moved left.  The exurbs are the heart of conservative activism...a lot of North Dakotans moved to MN in the last 30 years (before the oil boom) and they were the young suburbanites that fueled the rise of the MNGOPs right wing.

Now they are no longer dominating new development...exurbia is languishing and these GOP friendly Gen Xers are being replaced by Millennial Dems who are peppering the inner suburbs and 2nd ring burbs and turnung them DFL.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #3 on: March 13, 2015, 04:12:55 AM »

The Twin Cities suburbs were traditionally settled by ruralites from the upper Midwest.  White flight never really occurred on a city wide basis in either twin city so it was usually people coming from the rural areas that had been crammed into tiny apartments or duplexed homes with individual rooms to rent.  This was due to the depression and war leading to under investment in new housing and demand was pent up as cities filled to the brim.  Those people, renting veterans, went first.

These suburbs were largely Republican.  Since the 90s, these burbs have moved left.  The exurbs are the heart of conservative activism...a lot of North Dakotans moved to MN in the last 30 years (before the oil boom) and they were the young suburbanites that fueled the rise of the MNGOPs right wing.

Now they are no longer dominating new development...exurbia is languishing and these GOP friendly Gen Xers are being replaced by Millennial Dems who are peppering the inner suburbs and 2nd ring burbs and turnung them DFL.
Considering that, you have to wonder when John Kline and Eric Paulsen, if ever, will lose.  Their seats' current territory would probably have been R+10 a decade ago, am I wrong?
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #4 on: March 13, 2015, 04:21:18 AM »

White flight away from urban areas; combined with the fact that Republicans core base is well-off, married, white, religious families, pretty much explains most conservative suburbs.

In the Seattle area, the conservative areas are traditionally Auburn, Bellevue, and Mercer Island. Lots of well-to-do tech workers who try to avoid the taxes of Seattle itself. However the conservative hold has been slipping there, at least federally, as social issues become more of a deal-breaker.
You know, the more close-to-Seattle suburbs were once bellwethers for the State as a whole.  Now they are solidly Democratic.  These suburbs swung King County, which in turn swung Washington.  Now the state is rock-solid Democratic on presidential level.
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Miles
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« Reply #5 on: March 13, 2015, 11:22:01 AM »

DKE coined the phrase "Circle of Ignorance" for Waukesha/Ozaukee/Washington counties. It's pretty much stuck and I usually use it when I talk about that area.
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Torie
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« Reply #6 on: March 13, 2015, 12:13:24 PM »
« Edited: March 13, 2015, 03:50:59 PM by Torie »

The Twin Cities suburbs were traditionally settled by ruralites from the upper Midwest.  White flight never really occurred on a city wide basis in either twin city so it was usually people coming from the rural areas that had been crammed into tiny apartments or duplexed homes with individual rooms to rent.  This was due to the depression and war leading to under investment in new housing and demand was pent up as cities filled to the brim.  Those people, renting veterans, went first.

These suburbs were largely Republican.  Since the 90s, these burbs have moved left.  The exurbs are the heart of conservative activism...a lot of North Dakotans moved to MN in the last 30 years (before the oil boom) and they were the young suburbanites that fueled the rise of the MNGOPs right wing.

Now they are no longer dominating new development...exurbia is languishing and these GOP friendly Gen Xers are being replaced by Millennial Dems who are peppering the inner suburbs and 2nd ring burbs and turnung them DFL.

I haven't noticed this trend, at least not on the County level. If anything, Anoka has trended Pub, and Dakota hasn't moved much. It may be true for the higher end burbs in Hennepin County.
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« Reply #7 on: March 13, 2015, 07:40:34 PM »

The Twin Cities suburbs were traditionally settled by ruralites from the upper Midwest.  White flight never really occurred on a city wide basis in either twin city so it was usually people coming from the rural areas that had been crammed into tiny apartments or duplexed homes with individual rooms to rent.  This was due to the depression and war leading to under investment in new housing and demand was pent up as cities filled to the brim.  Those people, renting veterans, went first.

These suburbs were largely Republican.  Since the 90s, these burbs have moved left.  The exurbs are the heart of conservative activism...a lot of North Dakotans moved to MN in the last 30 years (before the oil boom) and they were the young suburbanites that fueled the rise of the MNGOPs right wing.

Now they are no longer dominating new development...exurbia is languishing and these GOP friendly Gen Xers are being replaced by Millennial Dems who are peppering the inner suburbs and 2nd ring burbs and turnung them DFL.

I haven't noticed this trend, at least not on the County level. If anything, Anoka has trended Pub, and Dakota hasn't moved much. It may be true for the higher end burbs in Hennepin County.
Anoka is a lot of exurbs and Dakota has been a bellwether.  But yes the DFL trending burbs would be closer to the core.  Think of it like ripples on a pond.
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« Reply #8 on: March 13, 2015, 10:49:18 PM »

Look at Edina. Textbook example there.
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #9 on: March 14, 2015, 10:59:14 AM »

I have always wondered about the Milwaukee suburbs and what makes them so heavily Republican (as Republican as the Dallas suburbs) - especially compared to the Madison suburbs which are fairly Democratic. Without the Milwaukee suburbs, WI would be a solid Democratic state instead of a lean Democratic state.

Here is an interesting article about the Milwaukee suburbs (even though it doesn't offer an explanation):

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/07/upshot/the-curious-case-of-milwaukees-suburban-voters.html?abt=0002&abg=1

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The Madison suburbs are extremely liberal because they surround Madison and so the people living in them are part of the Madison media market and are employed in the Madison area. Madison's economy is some combination of government employee, academia, and techie, fields that attract a left-leaning demographic overall. Madison itself has something of a Bohemian attraction to it, so the people who move to the city are likely to be rather leftwing. Those people are the ones fueling suburban growth, so it should be no surprise the suburbs are quite liberal.

The Milwaukee suburbs on the other hand are uniquely conservative for reasons that I don't quite understand. For some reason their conservative culture hasn't eroded to the same degree as other wealthy Midwestern suburbs, or if it has, those issues seem unimportant to those living there. Some have speculated things like talk radio or German ancestry play a unique role, but neither in and of itself seems to quite explain it.

Also, Cincinnati is worth noting as another Midwestern metro area with very conservative suburbs that haven't drifted left all that much (though the city of Cincinnati has).
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Torie
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« Reply #10 on: March 14, 2015, 11:08:46 AM »


Hasn't Edina become more secular Jewish?  How has Minnetonka trended? One peculiarity about MN is that the big metro area does not seem to vote much differently in the aggregate from the balance of the state.
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« Reply #11 on: March 14, 2015, 11:42:02 AM »


Hasn't Edina become more secular Jewish?  How has Minnetonka trended? One peculiarity about MN is that the big metro area does not seem to vote much differently in the aggregate from the balance of the state.

Edina prior to the 60s, had all sorts of discriminatory policies and country club rules aimed at keeping blacks and Jews out, this is exactly why St. Louis Park ended up with his well known Jewish population FYI. None of that matters anymore and the place has gone from the conservative country club dominated lily white enclave of its past to a pretty standard but slightly more affluent than most inner ring suburb now, but I haven't heard of any flood of any Jewish population in or anything, if anything I bet more blacks have. I mean sure Jews from SLP or southwest Minneapolis that find desirable housing there or whatever and want to move in have no real problem doing so or fear of discrimination now but it's not like there's anything drawing them there. Also worth noting that non-Jews in SLP are just as likely to be Democrats, I mean I go to chuch in SLP now. But that whole area just kind of screams "rich Democrats", the type of people who prefer to live in luxury condos or in the case of certain neighborhoods in southwest Minneapolis, real mansions, instead of the trashy newly built McMansions you'll find 15 miles west. I mean just look at this: http://www.50thandfrance.com And this is a relatively new development, Edina's current DFL state senator elected in 2012 is the first Democrat to represent Edina in the State Senate EVER.

Minnetonka has never been that Republican, but has definitely shifted Democratic, so much in fact that its DFL State Senator even survived 2010 and even after 2014 still has two DFL State Representatives. But it went from Gore winning it by about two points to Obama in 2012 winning it by 10 points. I think Minnetonka (as well as Hopkins) has also had a long standing Jewish population too though nowhere near as big as in SLP.
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Torie
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« Reply #12 on: March 14, 2015, 12:17:02 PM »


Hasn't Edina become more secular Jewish?  How has Minnetonka trended? One peculiarity about MN is that the big metro area does not seem to vote much differently in the aggregate from the balance of the state.

Edina prior to the 60s, had all sorts of discriminatory policies and country club rules aimed at keeping blacks and Jews out, this is exactly why St. Louis Park ended up with his well known Jewish population FYI. None of that matters anymore and the place has gone from the conservative country club dominated lily white enclave of its past to a pretty standard but slightly more affluent than most inner ring suburb now, but I haven't heard of any flood of any Jewish population in or anything, if anything I bet more blacks have. I mean sure Jews from SLP or southwest Minneapolis that find desirable housing there or whatever and want to move in have no real problem doing so or fear of discrimination now but it's not like there's anything drawing them there. Also worth noting that non-Jews in SLP are just as likely to be Democrats, I mean I go to chuch in SLP now. But that whole area just kind of screams "rich Democrats", the type of people who prefer to live in luxury condos or in the case of certain neighborhoods in southwest Minneapolis, real mansions, instead of the trashy newly built McMansions you'll find 15 miles west. I mean just look at this: http://www.50thandfrance.com And this is a relatively new development, Edina's current DFL state senator elected in 2012 is the first Democrat to represent Edina in the State Senate EVER.

Minnetonka has never been that Republican, but has definitely shifted Democratic, so much in fact that its DFL State Senator even survived 2010 and even after 2014 still has two DFL State Representatives. But it went from Gore winning it by about two points to Obama in 2012 winning it by 10 points. I think Minnetonka (as well as Hopkins) has also had a long standing Jewish population too though nowhere near as big as in SLP.

Edina went from 2.6% black in 2000 to 3% black in 2010. Obama carried it by 11 points in 2008 - not that Dem really.
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« Reply #13 on: March 14, 2015, 12:21:31 PM »

Well in 2000 Edina actually voted for Bush.
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« Reply #14 on: March 14, 2015, 12:30:18 PM »
« Edited: March 14, 2015, 12:41:39 PM by Torie »


In 2012 Obama's margin dropped to 7 points, trending Pub by about 30 basis points. Whatever Dem trend there was, has stalled. It's Dem PVI is about 1.5%.

But yes, in 2000 it had a Pub PVI of 3.5%. 2004 was the big Pub tanking in Edina (probably due to the Iraq war). It swung to a Dem PVI of 2.5% (a 6 point Dem trend). Now its back down a tad to a 1.5% Dem PVI.
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« Reply #15 on: March 14, 2015, 12:52:36 PM »

DKE coined the phrase "Circle of Ignorance" for Waukesha/Ozaukee/Washington counties. It's pretty much stuck and I usually use it when I talk about that area.

These counties have some of the highest educational levels in the state (along with Dane County). Its literally wrong to call them that.
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« Reply #16 on: March 14, 2015, 12:55:33 PM »

The Milwaukee suburbs on the other hand are uniquely conservative for reasons that I don't quite understand. For some reason their conservative culture hasn't eroded to the same degree as other wealthy Midwestern suburbs, or if it has, those issues seem unimportant to those living there. Some have speculated things like talk radio or German ancestry play a unique role, but neither in and of itself seems to quite explain it.

I'm very glad to hear that the political anomaly of the Milwaukee suburbs is just as mysterious to someone on the right as it is to someone on the left. I have never been able to understand what drives the immediate counties to 70%+ Republican margins (particularly with Scott Walker). I never realized the impact and power of those suburbs until the recall in 2012 when Milwaukee was unable to cancel out its suburbs. I still cannot understand why those counties vote the way they do. Even a big Democratic victory like 2008 only cut the margins down, but nothing even remotely close to a win.
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Torie
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« Reply #17 on: March 14, 2015, 01:35:08 PM »
« Edited: March 14, 2015, 01:48:54 PM by Torie »

The Milwaukee suburbs on the other hand are uniquely conservative for reasons that I don't quite understand. For some reason their conservative culture hasn't eroded to the same degree as other wealthy Midwestern suburbs, or if it has, those issues seem unimportant to those living there. Some have speculated things like talk radio or German ancestry play a unique role, but neither in and of itself seems to quite explain it.

I'm very glad to hear that the political anomaly of the Milwaukee suburbs is just as mysterious to someone on the right as it is to someone on the left. I have never been able to understand what drives the immediate counties to 70%+ Republican margins (particularly with Scott Walker). I never realized the impact and power of those suburbs until the recall in 2012 when Milwaukee was unable to cancel out its suburbs. I still cannot understand why those counties vote the way they do. Even a big Democratic victory like 2008 only cut the margins down, but nothing even remotely close to a win.

The below might help. First, the inner burbs are not Pub bastions. Second, they're white - very white. Third, the area has a rather 50's old fashioned type of economy, so the old management versus labor divide has more salience here still than in most places, keeping the bourgeoise in the Pub column, rather than decamping in droves as in places that have a more brains rather than brawn type economy. Just my little hypotheses anyway. Smiley

  






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« Reply #18 on: March 14, 2015, 10:55:51 PM »


Hasn't Edina become more secular Jewish?  How has Minnetonka trended? One peculiarity about MN is that the big metro area does not seem to vote much differently in the aggregate from the balance of the state.

Edina prior to the 60s, had all sorts of discriminatory policies and country club rules aimed at keeping blacks and Jews out, this is exactly why St. Louis Park ended up with his well known Jewish population FYI. None of that matters anymore and the place has gone from the conservative country club dominated lily white enclave of its past to a pretty standard but slightly more affluent than most inner ring suburb now, but I haven't heard of any flood of any Jewish population in or anything, if anything I bet more blacks have. I mean sure Jews from SLP or southwest Minneapolis that find desirable housing there or whatever and want to move in have no real problem doing so or fear of discrimination now but it's not like there's anything drawing them there. Also worth noting that non-Jews in SLP are just as likely to be Democrats, I mean I go to chuch in SLP now. But that whole area just kind of screams "rich Democrats", the type of people who prefer to live in luxury condos or in the case of certain neighborhoods in southwest Minneapolis, real mansions, instead of the trashy newly built McMansions you'll find 15 miles west. I mean just look at this: http://www.50thandfrance.com And this is a relatively new development, Edina's current DFL state senator elected in 2012 is the first Democrat to represent Edina in the State Senate EVER.

Minnetonka has never been that Republican, but has definitely shifted Democratic, so much in fact that its DFL State Senator even survived 2010 and even after 2014 still has two DFL State Representatives. But it went from Gore winning it by about two points to Obama in 2012 winning it by 10 points. I think Minnetonka (as well as Hopkins) has also had a long standing Jewish population too though nowhere near as big as in SLP.

Edina went from 2.6% black in 2000 to 3% black in 2010. Obama carried it by 11 points in 2008 - not that Dem really.
Using the prez race to predict local trends isnt very smart Torie and you know that.

Edina was the center of GOP politics in MN back in the 50s-80s...now they are voting DFL.

The DFL core is spreading to the inner and now 2nd ring suburbs.  Meanwhile formerly marginal rural DFL seats have gone GOP recently.  Is that permanent?  Who knows.

If you look at generational dynamics... Gen Xers drove the MNGOPs right wing revival that began in the early 90s.  They settled the 3rd ring suburbs (especially the conservative ones).

The youngest Gen Xers are now in their mid 30s...most have established families.

The growth now is among millennials starting out and baby boomers retiring.  Very different dynamic.  Millennials arent moving out to the exurbs in any appreciable numbers.  They are settling in the core, 1st, and some 2nd ring burbs.  They are driving the spreading DFL wave outwards.
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« Reply #19 on: March 15, 2015, 08:36:43 PM »

Torie's point about the inner suburbs is a good one, though it doesn't provide a complete explanation.

The Milwaukee area has a compact population distribution by Midwestern standards. Despite its small area, Milwaukee County has 61% of the Milwaukee MSA's population, compared to 55% of Chicago in Cook, 50% of the Twin Cities in Hennepin+Ramsey, and 42% of Detroit in Wayne. (Cuyahoga is 62% of Cleveland's, but it's almost twice the area of Milwaukee County). The Milwaukee MSA is also by some margin the second-densest metro in the Midwest, behind only Chicago. The point of all this is that the WOW is a bit more "outer-suburban" than it might intuitively appear just from looking at the county map.

This isn't a a complete explanation, first because even outer suburbs in other Midwestern metros aren't so Republican, and second because even the inner suburbs in the county are fairly Republican compared to other inner suburbs.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #20 on: March 18, 2015, 09:57:43 PM »

DKE coined the phrase "Circle of Ignorance" for Waukesha/Ozaukee/Washington counties. It's pretty much stuck and I usually use it when I talk about that area.

These counties have some of the highest educational levels in the state (along with Dane County). Its literally wrong to call them that.


There's a difference between being poorly educated and being ignorant.
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memphis
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« Reply #21 on: March 19, 2015, 08:06:14 PM »

And yet, if white people in the Deep South voted like white people in suburban Milwaukee, the Dems would be competitive in those states. Suburban Milwaukee has nothing on suburban Birmingham or New Orleans.
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« Reply #22 on: March 19, 2015, 08:30:21 PM »

DKE coined the phrase "Circle of Ignorance" for Waukesha/Ozaukee/Washington counties. It's pretty much stuck and I usually use it when I talk about that area.

These counties have some of the highest educational levels in the state (along with Dane County). Its literally wrong to call them that.


I'm curious ElectionsGuy.  How would the average WOW county resident respond to the following questions?
1. Do you believe the Earth is 6000 years old?
2. Do you believe in evolution?
3. Do you believe in global warming?

I assume the answers would be No, Yes, No for a county with those demographics, but it seems oddly conservative for a wealthy suburb.....is it super religious/fundie there?

I would agree. These suburbs are no more religious than the rest of Wisconsin, and if they're (as a whole) any kind of Republican voter, they're the most informed and intelligent. The turnout rates are so high its almost unreal. Highly educated and wealthy people who are consistently conservative is something this forum doesn't want to admit. And while they would probably vote against gay marriage if it was up on a vote, they would also vote much more overwhelmingly against a tax increase. People who think these Republican counties are ignorant hellholes full of SoCons are just wrong.
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Sol
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« Reply #23 on: March 19, 2015, 08:50:56 PM »

I think this map explains a lot regarding Milwaukee:
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KingSweden
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« Reply #24 on: March 22, 2015, 10:25:17 PM »

DKE coined the phrase "Circle of Ignorance" for Waukesha/Ozaukee/Washington counties. It's pretty much stuck and I usually use it when I talk about that area.

These counties have some of the highest educational levels in the state (along with Dane County). Its literally wrong to call them that.


I'm curious ElectionsGuy.  How would the average WOW county resident respond to the following questions?
1. Do you believe the Earth is 6000 years old?
2. Do you believe in evolution?
3. Do you believe in global warming?

I assume the answers would be No, Yes, No for a county with those demographics, but it seems oddly conservative for a wealthy suburb.....is it super religious/fundie there?

I would agree. These suburbs are no more religious than the rest of Wisconsin, and if they're (as a whole) any kind of Republican voter, they're the most informed and intelligent. The turnout rates are so high its almost unreal. Highly educated and wealthy people who are consistently conservative is something this forum doesn't want to admit. And while they would probably vote against gay marriage if it was up on a vote, they would also vote much more overwhelmingly against a tax increase. People who think these Republican counties are ignorant hellholes full of SoCons are just wrong.

They sound like the Seattle suburbs in the 80s and most of the 90s, in that case.
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